That is the opening line of Advantage, Obama, the column for the Saturday edition of The New York Times by Charles Blow. It is an evaluation of the state of the presidential race, examining recent events, especially Romney's missteps of the past week, and the trends in the polling data, not merely of the top lines but also of some of the other questions.
As to the character moments and the slope of lines,
They are about who a candidate reveals himself to be under pressure more than who he says he is on stage. And they are about the direction of change when the time comes to vote for change — or to forswear it in favor of continuity.
Taking that into account, at this moment, President Obama’s chances of being re-elected look stronger than they have in months. The Romney campaign seems to be coming off the tracks with no clear vision for how to get back on.
Or perhaps this is as good a brief summary as can be offered, after a specific recounting of Romney's reaction to events in the Middle East, and how the nation has reacted:
“Anybody but Obama” used to be an effective rallying cry. Lately, it’s been more like “anybody but Mitt.”
Remember: character moments.
Please keep reading.
You can read the rest of the Blow op ed on your own. There is analysis of polling data and the trends that are showing. There is reference to the Cook report.
I want to focus on that first line of the piece.
Character moments.
It is not just the early misstatement about events, and the subsequent doubling down. It is a pattern of such moments:
- time and again Romney has said things that have then had to be walked back
- Romney has been unwilling to provide specifics about his tax and economic plans
- Romney has been unwilling to trust the American people with his tax returns
- Romney has made"jokes" that have fallen flat, whether of cookies or of birth certificates
- Romney refuse to acknowledge that the performance by Clint Eastwood was over the top
- Romney has refused to step up and speak out, for example on what has been happening on the question of whether Obama will be on the ballot in Kansas
Time and again, when the opportunity to demonstrate character has presented itself, Romney has instead demonstrated a willingness to pander.
The American people have noticed.
They do not trust him.
They trust the President more
- on understanding their problems
- on matters of national security
- on matters of health policy, including women's health issues
- and now, on the economy and on taxes
Those are the trend lines, not merely the presidential preference, but increasingly in Presidential approval, in whom they trust, on their confidence the economy is improving.
People did not always agree with Ronald Reagan. Rightly or wrongly, they believed he operated from a set of core principles.
People do not believe that Romney has a core. That is why they do not trust him. That is why during the primaries the more they saw and heard him the less they liked him.
Elections often turn on character moments and the slopes of lines.
Each successive character moment Mitt Romney has faced has added to the slope of the lines diminishing his chances of electoral success.
That has becoming increasingly obvious this past week.
The election may not be over - yet - but it is hard to see how, with little of the electorate undecided, Romney turns this around.
Because Charles Blow is right:
Elections often turn on character moments and the slopes of lines.
And this election has turned.