Via Political Wire, the latest Public Policy Polling survey of likely Wisconsin voters (Sept 12-13) finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-48% and Tammy Baldwin (D) leading Tommy Thompson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48-45.
http://www.scribd.com/...
The presidential result may seem disappointing to Democrats, given Obama's seemingly durable post-convention bounce in national and many state polls. However, when one sees the partisan composition of the PPP Wisconsin poll, it's impressive that Obama is up at all. PPP's sample electorate is R+4 (R 36, D 32, I 32). How does that compare to recent statewide elections in America's Dairy Land?
Here are exit-poll results from recent Wisconsin elections, with Party ID presented as R vs. D (excluding Independents):
2011 Special Election R+1 (35-34)
http://www.nytimes.com/...
2010 U.S. Senate Race D+1 (37-36)
http://www.cbsnews.com/...
2008 Presidential Race D+6 (39-33)
http://images.cnn.com/...
2006 Governor's Race D+4 (38-34)
http://www.cnn.com/...
2004 U.S. Senate Race R+3 (38-35)
http://www.cnn.com/...
(Couldn't get link for presidential race, but voters in Senate race probably similar)
In 2004, with Bush having a well-regarded GOTV effort, there actually were more Republican- than Democratic-identified voters in the Badger State, but the Democrats still held Wisconsin: Kerry 50, Bush 49, Nader 1.
What about other recent (i.e., August 2012) Wisconsin polling? Here's what it shows (note that Paul Ryan was named as VP running mate on August 11):
Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS (LV, August 15-21) Obama up 49-47, Party ID: D+4 (32-28)
http://www.nytimes.com/...
Marquette Law School (LV, August 16-19) Obama up 49-46, Party ID: D+1 (44-43)
https://law.marquette.edu/...
PPP (LV, August 16-19) Romney up 48-47, Party ID: R+2 (34-32)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
These three polls, all taken about a week after the Ryan announcement, give no suggestion of an R+4 electorate come November. We'll have to see if any other polls in the coming days and weeks corroborate today's PPP reading on partisan composition.
If, like me, you're obsessed with Party ID and sample weighting, I invite you to visit my website on the topic: http://courses.ttu.edu/...