538
Nate has two numbers: the November 6th forecast, which takes a lot of factors into account for a model, and the "now-cast", which relies on the current polling.
Both have reached a high water point for President Obama's re-election.
Category |
Forecast |
Now-cast
|
ECV |
315.9 |
337.2
|
%chance of winning |
81.9% |
97.8%
|
%popular vote |
51.3% |
52.1%
|
As the election draws near, the forecast and the now-cast converge. Nate's model assumes that some non-poll factors, such as the weak economy, will pull Obama's numbers down. Obama is overperforming the economy for some reason, such Romney's total unlikeability. After all, the Romney campaign is characterized by practicing random flip-flops and senseless acts of dickishness.
The states currently led by Willard M. Romney with the smallest lead in the projected vote totals are as follows.
State |
Projected Romney lead |
ECV
|
NC |
1.7% |
15
|
NE CD#2 |
4.5% |
1
|
AZ |
4.1% |
11
|
MO |
6.0% |
10
|
IN |
6.5% |
11
|
MT |
7.7% |
3
|
The most out of reach state is Utah, whose 6 ECV are protected by a 40.7% Romney lead. If Willard pulled a pistol at the first debate and tried to shoot BHO, he still might carry Utah from his jail cell.
The odds of a Obama popular vote victory of more than 10% have dropped to only 6.8%.
For the Senate, the projected result is 51.7 Democratic seats and 48.3 Republican seats, with the Democrats holding a 78.1% chance of a majority.
The most recent polling listed at 538 for the North Carolina and Arizona follows.
North Carolina
Pollster |
538 weight |
Date |
Obama |
Romney |
Margin
|
Purple Strategies |
3 |
9/19 |
48.0 |
46.0 |
O+2
|
National Research |
3 |
9/19 |
49.0 |
45.0 |
O+4
|
High Point University |
2 |
9/17 |
48.0 |
44.0 |
O+4
|
YouGov |
4 |
9/14 |
44 |
45 |
R+1
|
Rasmussen |
2 |
9/13 |
45 |
51 |
R+6
|
Arizona
Pollster |
538 weight |
Date |
Obama |
Romney |
Margin
|
Purple Strategies |
3 |
9/19 |
45 |
48 |
R+3
|
YouGov |
3 |
9/14 |
41 |
51 |
R+10
|
PPP |
5 |
9/9 |
44 |
53 |
R+9
|
PPP |
1 |
7/25 |
41 |
52 |
R+11
|
Rasmussen |
1 |
6/26 |
41 |
55 |
R+13
|
In the key states of Florida and Ohio, 538 gives Obama a Nov. 6th projection of winning Florida by 2.0%, with a 67% chance of winning, and projects Ohio as having a 4.3% margin corresponding to an 82% chance of victory.