We have five new swing state polls out today, all showing Obama continuing to lead, albeit no jaw-dropping numbers like we've seen this week out of Ohio, Florida, Nevada, etc. The numbers weren't as terrible today for Romney as they have been for the past few days, but that isn't saying much, since he's still losing everywhere.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
We have five new swing state polls out today, all showing Obama continuing to lead, albeit no jaw-dropping numbers like we've seen this week out of Ohio, Florida, Nevada, etc. The numbers weren't as terrible today for Romney as they have been for the past few days, but that isn't saying much, since he's still losing everywhere.
Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 51%, Romney 44% -- Obama +7% net since June (NBC/WSJ)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 48%, Romney 46% -- No Change Since June (NBC/WSJ)
* NEVADA: Obama 49%, Romney 47% -- No Change Since June (NBC/WSJ)
* COLORADO: Obama 50%, Romney 46% -- Obama +5% net since August (Gravis)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 46%, Romney 44% -- No Previous Poll (Suffolk)
The New Hampshire number sticks out, as it shows a big shift to Obama similar to the type of shift to Obama we've seen in Ohio, Wisconsin, etc. North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada remain close, but the fact that Obama has now led in five of the last six North Carolina polls is a pretty big headache for Romney's campaign.
There is a real question to be asked regarding if the Obama campaign would be better off not putting too much money in North Carolina and allocating those resources to states where he is in better position to put the election away -- Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa. The reality here is that while it is impressive that Obama is polling leads in North Carolina, they remain small even while Romney is at what is likely to be his lowest point of the campaign (seems unlikely that he will have anything as bad as the 47% video happen again). Given that North Carolina is still a fairly conservative state demographically, even a slight shift back to Romney nationally would probably put him back in the driver's seat to win it. Obama doesn't really need the state, as its virtually impossible that it'll be the one to put him over 270.
At this point, we can clearly divide the swing states into three categories (and I'm not including Pennsylvania and Michigan, as Obama has large leads there now).
Category 1: Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin -- Obama has opened up fairly comfortable leads in these three swing states (average leads are: 5.4% in Ohio; 4.3% in Iowa; 7.8% in Wisconsin) and is currently in good shape to win them. It can be argued that Romney's deficits here are too large to make up from just good debate performances, he may need some major things to change (for example, outside events or a major Obama gaffe) to be able to get back into contention here. These are also the swing states where we have seen the biggest shifts to Obama in the past few weeks, likely a result of the convention and Romney's 47% video.
Giving these three states to Obama puts him at 271 electoral votes. He would win just by winning these three swing states.
Category 2: Virginia, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire -- Obama leads in these four states, but by narrower margins (average leads are: 4.1% in Virginia; 3.2% in Florida; 3.8% in Nevada; 2.5% in New Hampshire). These four states represent the best "back-ups" to the above three, as well as the most likely "cushion states" -- states that pad the win beyond 270 electoral votes.
Category 3: North Carolina, Colorado -- Obama has very narrow leads here (average leads are: 2.9% in Colorado; 1.1% in North Carolina) meaning even the slightest shift nationally back to Romney could make North Carolina lean Romney and Colorado be a total toss-up that would hang on turnout. Obama doesn't need either of these states to win. Like in 2008, if his overall margin of victory is around 6%, he will probably win these, but less than that and it may be tough.
Polling wise, we may be in a bit of a stand still now until a few days after the first debate when we start seeing reactions to that. Obama has probably gotten all of what he is going to get out of the 47% fallout (or at least all that will show up in polls right now, the influence of it on undecided voters closer to election day still remains).
The national polling picture is lining up pretty well with the state polling picture. Every national pollster except Rasmussen seems to have Obama up by 3%-7%, which would be in line with what we are seeing on the state level. In a 3%-4% national win, Obama would probably win all swing states except North Carolina, Colorado, and maybe Nevada and Florida. Once you get to 5%, Florida and Nevada probably shift over to Obama. More than that and you are in 2008 range where North Carolina could be blue again. So for all the talk about inconsistent polling, it's actually pretty consistent when you exclude the one exception -- Rasmussen. Even the new FOX News national poll has Obama up 5%, which seems about right and in line with all the other polls.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.