Public Policy Polling just released its latest poll on the state of the presidential race in its home state, North Carolina (it's headquartered in Raleigh). It confirms what we already know--this race is a pure coin flip. Obama and Romney are both in a flat-footed tie, with both attracting 48 percent. By comparison, Obama led by one in PPP's last North Carolina poll.
There are a few crosstabs, though, that should give Romney pause. One is that Democrats seem to be more energized than Republicans.
Democrats in North Carolina are feeling more excitement about the campaign at this point than Republicans are. 69% say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall compared to 58% of GOP voters. Beyond that 80% of African Americans and 75% of voters under 30 said they were 'very excited' about voting. Those are the groups that fueled Obama's surprise North Carolina victory in 2008 so their continued excitement bodes very well for his ability to do it again.
I can vouch for this--I live in Charlotte, and haven't seen a single Romney sign anywhere. This one should make Pat McCrory a little nervous as well in his race for governor--after all, he's been leading most polls for virtually the entire way. And yet, if Democrats are more excited about going to the polls at this point, it could mean Obama could generate longer coattails than expected for Walter Dalton.
Voters aren't at all pleased with Romney's "47 percent" remarks. Half of those polled disapprove of those comments, and by a 38-28 margin North Carolinians are less inclined to vote for Romney as a result. And only four percent are undecided. Hint, hint. Not surprisingly, 48 percent of voters believe Obama understands what they're going through, compared to only 42 percent who would say that about Romney.
PPP normally doesn't do regional breakdowns, but decided to do one for North Carolina. The state is split between six area codes--252 for the northeast, 910 for the southeast, 919 for the Triangle (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill) 336 for the Triad (Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point), 704 for Charlotte and 828 for the mountains. The Triangle, the Triad and Charlotte make up the I-85 Corridor, which is home to two-thirds of the state's population. Obama leads by a whopping 59-39 in the Triangle and 51-45 in the Triad. He's behind in the Charlotte area 55-41, but that number is likely skewed by the fact that the Charlotte area has a pretty high concentration of wingnuts in the suburbs, more so than in the Triangle and Triad. Charlotte itself gave Obama his highest vote total in the state in 2008, but he lost the other counties in the metro by double-digits.
How critical is this? In 2008, McCain drowned under a 320,000-vote margin in the big counties of the I-85 Corridor, and Obama will keep this state blue if he gets anywhere near that. At the very least, if Obama can run it up in the I-85 Corridor, Romney will have to run the table in the rest of the state to flip it.
The message from this poll? If Romney is to win North Carolina, all indications are that Obama will bleed him white in doing so.