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We have several new swing state polls in today, most done completely after Wednesday night's debate, and it's pretty clear that Romney is getting a bounce.

Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.

Originally published at No We Can't Politics.

* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 48% -- No change since 3 weeks ago (Rasmussen)
* OHIO: Romney 47%, Obama 46% -- Romney +9% since July (WeAskAmerica)
* FLORIDA: Romney 49%, Obama 46% -- Romney +4% since 3 weeks ago (WeAskAmerica)
* FLORIDA: Romney 49%, Obama 47% -- Romney +6% since 2 weeks ago (Rasmussen)
* NEVADA: Obama 49%, Romney 48% -- No previous poll (Gravis)
* VIRGINIA: Romney 49%, Obama 48% -- Romney +2% since 3 weeks ago (Rasmussen)
* VIRGINIA: Romney 48%, Obama 45% -- Romney +6% since 2 weeks ago (WeAskAmerica)

This is obviously the best set of swing state polling for Romney in a very long time. The WeAskAmerica poll showing Romney ahead in Ohio is the first poll out of the last 17 to show a Romney lead, and it's pretty clear that Virginia and Florida are now looking like toss-ups, as even the three previous polls of those states done before the debate all showed narrow 1%-3% Obama leads. The questions now are:

* Will other pollsters show similar shifts to Romney in the key swing states?
* Will Romney's bounce stick, or will it dissipate?
* What impact will today's fall in unemployment have on numbers starting in a couple of days?

I wrote earlier today that today's fall in unemployment to 7.8% is going to be a powerful political tool for Obama to use in the final month of the election. It's an unmistakable symbolic sign of progress and makes his case of economic improvement much easier to sell. It also cuts-short Romney's post-debate momentum, as he was right back on the defensive today, making excuses for the strong jobs report, while his party threw out conspiracy theories on the jobs numbers being rigged. I'd suspect that today's news will halt Romney's convention bounce, but more importantly, make Obama's re-election chances that much stronger, simply because economic factors play a huge role in predicting election winners. As Nate Silver explained today, Obama now has the second largest unemployment drop during an election year ever, from 8.5% to 7.8%, behind only Ronald Reagan in 1984, who saw unemployment go from 8.3% to 7.3%. These economic variables have tremendous predictive power on whether an incumbent will be re-elected or not, and the current economic trends make it more likely that Obama will be re-elected. Obama got a huge break with today's numbers, as a bad jobs report, given what we are seeing in today's swing state polls, would have likely carried Romney's momentum well into next week.

It is worth mentioning that Obama actually increased his lead from 4% to 5% in today's Gallup poll, which includes surveys from Thursday, the day after the debate. Obama's lead remained at 2% in the Rasmussen poll, which also now includes Thursday.

All that being said, the Romney campaign is back in the game, if today's state poll numbers are reflective of what other pollsters are seeing.

Originally published at No We Can't Politics.

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