Skip to main content

We all know that Gallup reports their data on a rolling 7-day average. Obama was ahead 50-45 for the three days before the debate, and has been tied the three days after. This is among a sample of Registered Voters.  

The Politico GWU Battleground poll finds Obama staked to a narrow 49-48 lead.

Romney has increased his position in the PPP poll of Virginia by a few points and has dramatically improved (10 pts.) his favorability ratings.

This is the state of the race as of today.

Chicken Littles are screaming "All is Lost!" Delusionals are smoothly crooning, "Chill out -- BO's got this."

You're both wrong, and frankly, you're both REALLY wrong. Obama doesn't "got" this anymore than I "got" my wife's Christmas bonus. I expect it, I deserve it. All signs point to "most likely" but the check has not yet been recieved and the accountants are stupid assholes who might decide "the climate isn't right."

Obama has not "lost" -- he's actually the president right now, and has a lot of money, a firm cohort of diehard supporters and a month to make the case.

But that's the issue here...he has to MAKE THE CASE. And only he can do it. I can't, you can't -- Bill Clinton can't. We can affect things around the margins and motivate some folks to show up, but Barack has to decide that he wants this thing and that he can explain why we would be worse off under Romney, and better off under his leadership.

To all of you "oh we've lost people" -- I sympathize. Obama let me down too. But the only thing he's lost so far is one debate. It was a huge loss and it changed the race but I suspect some of you were planted too firmly in the "this race is over" camp to begin with...maybe you should be like me, more nervous as shit ESPECIALLY when things are going well.

To those of you who think Obama won, on substance or style -- wow, just, wow. Do you look in the mirror and see a supermodel too? I was about ten minutes into the debate and I told my wife, "He looks and sounds like shit." If you had a different perception, God bless your ability to live in denial. But a HUGE chunk of the American public saw what I saw.

Romney would be a better than 50-50 shot if the election were held today. The jobs numbers were great, but the whole BLS truther thing accomplished what it set out to do. The GOP are good at changing the narrative and stealing thunder (being so close to the devil and all, they are good with sturm und drang). Anyone remember TANG? They turned that into an indictment of the media, got Dan Rather (fucking DAN RATHER!) fired and cast doubt and ran out the clock all while never denying the substance of the attack against Bush. Well, that's what they did with the jobs numbers. You won't see a bounce because the American people didn't see "The economy's improving" they saw, "Democrats claim good jobs numbers but Republicans cry foul."

Why am I trying to burst your bubble? Because as a recovering alcoholic, the thing I know best of all is you cannot overcome your troubles if you REFUSE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THEM. Obama is very likely down at the moment. Not far, maybe tied or even slightly ahead, but NOT A FAVORITE. He should be. But the news is not getting out, the message is unclear and the PR machine is too passive and frankly, highbrow for the job at hand.

This can be won, but Obama has to do it. We can help -- logistics (GOTV), money ($$$), word of mouth -- yes we should hold the MSM accountable, but, as I lectured my son after a close loss in the soccer tournament, the refs make bad calls everyday and some go your way and some don't -- you have to OUTPLAY the other team.

I hope we can move past parsing the polls (they oversampled assholes!) Claiming victory after the first lap (the bounce is over!) and assuming right thought means right result (Romney's lying and evil so he can't possibly win.) People are dumb, the economy has been tough....racists still dominate many regions and demographics (esp. the older folks), gas prices are getting bad ATM, and foreign issues aren't a decisive plus right now and in fact may cause worry.

Romney stole the fire Prometheus Obama was using to burn him -- the unfavorability issue is probably dead. Now the only thing left is "He promised you all a pony, but really he's selling you horsemeat." We (Obama, mostly) have to focus on the idea that YOU CAN'T TRUST this guy. Because A) His statements are not accurate or honest, B) His policies will make things worse, reverse gains and set us back to Lehman Brothers collapse policies, and C) He has said whatever he needed to say at different times and different places...

Shorter: He's a liar, a vulture and a fraud. But we can't assume (Are you Listening Mr. President?) that the American voters are smart enough to figure that out -- we have to say it outright. And often.

UPDATE 9:54AM: Thanks for the recs, and the respectful dialogue below. I stand by my assessment that the current state -- and trajectory of the race are significant and negative. But one thing is clear -- NOTHING IS CLEAR. There are data points going both ways and as everyone knows, or should -- there are 29 days and three debates left. As Woody Allen might say, "There's plenty of time for things to change, we might not lose -- we might get killed." (Or trounce!) Luckily I have no need or desire to be proven right, I am well prepared -- and eager to eat crow. See me Nov. 7.

Poll

I believe in polls

29%36 votes
6%8 votes
5%7 votes
4%5 votes
54%67 votes

| 124 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  It's not 47-47 for 3 days, it's an average (18+ / 0-)

    Romney could just as easily polled 49-47-45 for Thu/Fri/Sat.
    I suspect it's something like that.  We'll see later today.

    •  They could also be 45-47-49 (12+ / 0-)

      I don't assume. but the facts is:

      9/30-10/2 = O +5
      10/4-10/6 = tie

      You have to possess uncanny mental acrobatic ability not to understand Romney gained five points.

      I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

      by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:31:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not likely, look at the 7 day MA (8+ / 0-)

        If Romney had actually increased from thu-Sat. It would have been reflected in the 7day MA on yesterday.  None of the major polls yesterday showed the jump that a 45-47-49 day would have produced.

        It also defies logic to believe Romney steadily gained after his strong performance on Wed.  Most likely, Thu was his strongest day while the debate was still fresh in the minds of the voters.

        •  Also, how does the POTUS (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwjjd, pollwatcher, pademocrat

          normally poll on Friday and Saturday.  I seem to remember that in these trackers with very very smalls samples each day, he polled poorly on weekend.  In other words withing the 7 day rolling tracker Friday and
          Saturday may always be his bad days.

        •  PPP reported Friday strongest (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          pollwatcher

          For Romney began to settle back after Friday.

          Sure Romney made gains BUT only because his GOP BASE came home,

          tweet from PPP

          PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

          Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers

          Media REALLY hyping now on Monday what they couldn't during weekend

          Re-Elect President Barack Obama & RECALL GOP 2012

          by Wary on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:57:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  That wouldn't be consistant with other polls. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pollwatcher

        Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

        by natedogg265 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:44:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Polls are but projections (4+ / 0-)

        Nate Silver at 538 blog has four polls registering ranges from +.9 to +4.5 for Romney's bounce and at this time he says there is sufficient polling data to show an average +2.9 bump for Romney.

        His model still projects a 78.4% chance that Obama will win the election... down from a high of 84% (if memory serves me well).

        You're right to call out the "all is lost" and the poll deniers... this was a serious bump in the road... but far from fatal.

        Actually I think as you do that if Obama and Biden do well in their respective upcoming debates it will turn out to be a decidedly positive factor in an Obama win.

        Like you, I have been very concerned about voter complacency... many have responded with a false sense of security as is the polls were the election itself and Obama's commanding lead made it appear as a "slam dunk" deal for a win.

        Nothing could be farther from the truth... the voter suppression laws are still going to have an effect despite current legal successes.

        Example Ohio, where despite a commanding predebate lead, the head of the state DNC said that 500,000 voters have been purged from the voter rolls but because the rethuglican secretary of state won't disclose who they are... they can't be certain of the effect on voting.

        Turn-out of "registered" voters is all that matters and the polls be damned!

      •  Please delete bullshit diary now that Gallup's (0+ / 0-)

        real numbers have been published. At best, your title was extremely misleading but now it is clear that the earlier number was a selective publication of three days of polling from Gallup. In lieu of deletion, at least update with accurate information.

        Their actual poll for Monday indicates the president has gained in his lead over Romney and increased his actual approval number above 50%. Thus, the entire basis for your diary is undermined.

        Romney-Ryan, Unhinged 2012

        by smartdemmg on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:50:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not that the race isn't closer than it was last (5+ / 0-)

      week, but I think it's fishy to have Gallup coming out with talk about a three-day average as if that proves that the debate was a game-changer. We've heard from PPP, at least, that Obama had a seriously bad day on Thursday that turned into a disastrous day on Friday, but that they were seeing the numbers trending back in Obama's direction on Saturday.

      As you're right to point out, over these three days Gallup's results could also have returned to the status quo ante. Or maybe things went so far south for Obama we should be grateful we're back to a tie. But if Gallup is going to break their tracking sample in half based on the debate, why not segment it to depict the effect of the jobs numbers? Or Big Bird's appearance on SNL? Or Jon Stewart vs. O'Reilly?

      I'm not saying there's a vast numbers-cooking conspiracy. I think they're just trying to create headlines for themselves and the MSM. But I also don't think that these numbers mean that Romney is any closer to victory than he was in early September.

      •  that struck me, too... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        raincrow, pollwatcher

        ...wasn't Romney slightly ahead in Rasmussen's tracking poll yesterday? Now, both Rasmussen and Gallup show the President and Romney even. That's not so bad if we consider that both of those tracking polls are mostly post-debate (four days in the seven-day tracking poll, all three days in the other)...

        ...so...based on all available evidence right now, it appears that Romney has made the race a little closer, gotten himself back "in the game," so to speak (based on people's perceptions and the more narrow national polls).

        They key now is whether Romney's post-debate mini-surge is still peaking, has already peaked and has legs or if it fades. If it's still peaking, that's not good news for the President and Romney will likely go ahead soon. If Romney's post-debate bounce has peaked and it sustains, it's likely to fairly close until something else comes along to change that (i.e. another debate or major event). If he's peaked by it fades, advantage starts going back to the president.

    •  I am confident (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow, rubyclaire

      VPOTUS & POTUS will come loaded for bear in the next debates.  Who knows what Team RawLyin will stoop to next, but team O has to assume they will double down on their BS.
      IMHO, a little bit of passion would energize the argument.  The president needs to debate the same way he campaigns.  He needs to sing, to lead, and not be a talking head.

      They have to reframe the narrative, put the spotlight back on Romney's self contradiction on the one hand and the benefit of 4 more years on the other.

      POTUS has to fight like he is the tip of the spear, the greatest chance we have to protect and advance the future of his children and ours.  He has to remind the American People he is fighting for them, not the Tea Party, Grover Norquist, Rush Limbaugh or Ralph Reed.

      He has to go deep and remind everyone he is one of us.

    •  "Nothing is clear" (0+ / 0-)

      And this diary does nothing to change that.

      How does hash like this make the rec list?  

      Seriously?

  •  I see (5+ / 0-)

    this isn't going to end well...

    The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

    Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

    by TheGreatLeapForward on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:24:16 AM PDT

  •  Your Gallup numbers are misleading (15+ / 0-)

    That Gov. Romney and the President have each polled an average of 47 over three days ignores the fact that:

    1) This is a seven-day tracking poll for a reason, and;
    2) Averages are different that polling the same number each of the three days.

    That said, the general ethos of "a win is favored but by no means guaranteed" is a good one to remember.

    Unapologetic Obama supporter.

    by Red Sox on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:24:16 AM PDT

  •  good diary (19+ / 0-)

    This part really hit home for me:

    This can be won, but Obama has to do it. We can help -- logistics (GOTV), money ($$$), word of mouth -- yes we should hold the MSM accountable, but, as I lectured my son after a close loss in the soccer tournament, the refs make bad calls everyday and some go your way and some don't -- you have to OUTPLAY the other team.
    Passivity doesn't work. It doesn't work on the job. It doesn't work at school. No one is going to tell your story for you - that's your job. If you don't tell it, it doesn't get told.

    Obama didn't tell his story during that debate. Not effectively, anyway. If he keeps this up, he will have wasted all the time and money spent on behalf of his campaign by so many, from activists to Bill Clinton.

  •  Romney seeming not scary = DANGER (18+ / 0-)

    If Romney seems "comfortable and trustworthy" to undecideds in Ohio, Florida, and Vriginia, then that's the end of the election.

    Obama campaign should focus like a laser on holding Ohio. FL and VA are 50-50 now, but Obama has some room in Ohio if it doesn't fall apart.

    Do not let Romney get away with the etch-a-sketch to Mr. Reasonable bi-partisan Moderate.

  •  Actually if the election was held today (29+ / 0-)

    Obama would win it.  He is ahead in Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio, and Iowa.

    It is tightened but Obama is still ahead.

    Obama needs to pull out a strong performance next Tuesday and then the MSM will be saying that Obama is back.

    Also, Obama has a far better ground game than Romney has.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:25:23 AM PDT

  •  Gallup? (6+ / 0-)

    I expected all the right-leaning polls to show movement in Romney's direction so i'm not the least bit surprised at this "tie"

    But looking at other polls and other constituencies we see no change:

    Latino Decisions tracking poll shows virtually no post-debate movement: Obama 72 Romney 20 http://www.latinodecisions.com/...

    •  You're playing the refs. (10+ / 0-)

      TRUTH: Obama underperformed, Romney excelled. The race has changed and clapping louder won't fix it.

      What the "right-leaning" polls show -- and you can smell it -- is that motivation and momentum are on the other side.

      Dems are less enthusiastic, and that will give Romney the edge -- if it doesn't change.

      Denial is not a powerful enough tool, we need enthusiasm.

      I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

      by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:34:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're right that the race has changed (13+ / 0-)

        but you're wrong about how dramatically.

        Before the debate, Romney was toast.  Now he's competitive.  However, Obama still has a clear advantage: the TPM polling average puts it at 2.1 points (48.7-46.6%), and the polling average gives you a much better read on the state of the race than the trendline of a single pollster.  Electoral College projections also give Obama a clear, even commanding, lead.  At TPM, they're assigning 294 EVs to Obama, far more than the 270 needed to win, and that total excludes swing states like CO that will almost certainly break for Obama.  Even pollster's more cautious reading of the data gives Obama a 263-206 lead in the Electoral College.

        Yes, following last week's debate there is now a real possibility Obama could lose, but that possibility is still very small.  The fact remains this is Obama's race to win, and all he needs do is implement small course corrections to put himself back in a commanding position.

        Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
        ¡Boycott Arizona!

        by litho on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:44:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I would argue the polls are a lagging indicator. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          raincrow, Subterranean

          Not quite apropos of Carter v. Reagan, but similar -- Reagan was viewed as scary and dangerous, and erased just enough of that with a strong, confident performance against a complacent, slightly arrogant incumbent who underestimated him.

          Actually, the parallels are eerie (except the country is no where near as bad off as '80)

          I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

          by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:52:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Now you're just buying into Romney's narrative (11+ / 0-)

            This race is nothing like 1980, and the polls are already reflecting the narrowness of the debate bounce.

            Remember, Romney got nothing -- nothing -- out of his convention.  Reagan got a 25-point bounce, the biggest in the modern convention era.

            Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
            ¡Boycott Arizona!

            by litho on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:57:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  the similarities begin and end with (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Boston to Salem, raincrow

              Romney erasing the "evil" caricature of himself, sadly, he made a bunch of people more comfortable voting for him. They may still prefer Obama (which was not the case with Carter) but he has to sell it.

              I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

              by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:00:30 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I've been saying all week (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Deep Texan, fou, rennert, StellaRay

                the debate victory was pyrrhic, because it was based on Romney essentially lying about his own positions, Obama's record, or both.

                The Obama campaign has a very sophisticated and adept advertising crew.  They are fully capable of puncturing Romney's lies in a way the voting public can understand, and I expect them to blanket swing states with effective, hard-hitting ads.  The Priorities USA ad currently posted on the front page does some of what I'm talking about, but I'm expecting more and harder as the campaign progresses.

                Obama needs to do a better job at the next debate.  The bar is high for him, especially because Romney's is now significantly lower than it had been, but from the noises Axelrod is making his team seems to be taking the task seriously.

                It is definitely not the time for doom and gloom.  It is time to tighten our sword belts, strap on the armor, and go back into battle with renewed vigor.  We can win this thing, and we need to do it.

                Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
                ¡Boycott Arizona!

                by litho on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:08:13 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I actually think (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  lockewasright

                  the bar is low for President Obama in a way.  If he keeps his eyes up and not down at the podium, has more energy and shows a wee bit more passion, people will say he's improved greatly.  Romney set his bar high by comparison to how subdued and distracted President Obama appeared.

                  "Stand! There's a cross you have to bear. Things to go through if you're going anywhere." - "Stand" Sly & the Family Stone

                  by mirandasright on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:51:31 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  i see your point (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fou, rennert, lockewasright

        But you also have to look at facts. Pollwatcher made some good points. I believe yesterday romney would've had more movement yesterday if he was gaining but it stayed still. We'll see today but is commenter has a point. Romney made big movements in the LD poll after his convention, not showing much signs now. If Obama is still ahead with Latinos by a lot, the race is still his to win. I'm not saying he wasnt hurt by the debate, he was. But were still in the drivers seat.

      •  C'est vrai. (0+ / 0-)
        The race has changed and clapping louder won't fix it.

        He only employs his passion who can make no use of his reason. - Cicero

        by SpamNunn on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:57:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'll be impressed when I see state polls (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lockewasright, StellaRay

        that are consistent with the "Romney excelled" meme. I have never been concerned with national polls b/c we don't have a national electoral system based on the popular. We have an electoral college. If Romney has consolidated his base in MS and TX, good for him but that will not lead to the WH.

        I think it is important that the president understand that he under performed and make the necessary corrections (which he appears to have done in the days since the debate) but ruminating about his performance on the internet will not lead to a win in Nov). And worry is not an effective problem solving strategy.

        Romney has made up ground (agreed) but this notion that the electoral college is tied based on a tie over the last 3 days at Gallup is just a leap to far for me.

        Romney-Ryan, Unhinged 2012

        by smartdemmg on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:40:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rasmussen has Obama and Romney tied (4+ / 0-)

      at 48% each this morning.

      I guess the MSM will be touting now a tied race.

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:47:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Will conservative blogs say Romey surge=skewed? (7+ / 0-)

    Will they promote these numbers in glee, forgetting that they were calling the SAME pollsters biased and skewed?

    Clowns.

  •  Well this is just sad. I don't even know how (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duha, raincrow

    The second debate can go any better considering Romney will continue to lie no matter what and the president will be trying to fight the issues he should have addressed in the first debate.

    I can't believe this.

    "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

    by sillycilla on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:26:43 AM PDT

  •  GOTV, Canvas, Phone Bank ... Do what it takes .... (5+ / 0-)

    I have been saying all along. And I will be saying it again to whoever wants to listen. If you really care about this election, then you need to act as if we were down 10 points and you really wanted to win it.

    Register with your local OFA (Obama For America) office, get out there and make phone calls, knock on doors. That's the only thing that matters. Don't assume we are winning. Don't assume someone will do it for you. GO DO IT YOURSELF.

    Don't forget to register to vote here: http://netrootsradio.blogspot.com/p/register-to-vote.html

    by bepanda on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:28:19 AM PDT

    •  The electorate has shown an openness to the truth: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raincrow

      The truth that truth is the last thing they should expect from Romney. A big part of the message of canvasing and phone banking efforts needs to be focused on Mitt's pathological dishonesty.

      And to those who seem willing to think Mitt is actually and will govern as a moderate, it needs to be pointed out to them that it is the radical right base that Mitt will be most beholdin' to. Since he'll want to win a second term he'll throw them enough bones that the rest of us will feel the damge.

      And regardless of his lying about his tax plans and his sudden love affair with regulation, make no mistake, he's not walking away from former extremist positions there. Cutting taxes and regulation as a strategy to weaken government is GOP core belief and main mission. Any GOP president will do the exact same thing; cut taxes and weaken or eliminate regulation. Any Republican candidate that professes otherwise is lying thru his/her teeth.

      A Romney presidency will guarantee both cuts to programs people rely on and huge increases to the deficit for the sake of giving more tax relief to the wealthy and providing enormous piles of pork to the MIC. And that MIC pork will do nothing to make the US one iota safer.

      So even if a voter doen't give a shit about poor people and is OK with hurting them in order to address the deficit, s/he needs to know the deficit will be exploided further and intentionally so by yet another GOP administration just to fill the coffers of defense contractors. It'll be the 3rd GOP administration in 30 yrs to dramatically increase the defecit and have precious little, if any, greater good to show for it. If the deficit's the issue, the GOP are the last guys you want calling the shots.

      Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

      by JTinDC on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:44:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama fucked up with the debate (12+ / 0-)

    but here is the thing - he knows that he did and he knows that he can fix it with the upcoming debates

  •  Rec'd for honesty. (10+ / 0-)

    We've been wondering how to get through the clutter and reach low-information voters. Mitt haz it.

    by Crashing Vor on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:31:09 AM PDT

  •  The level of hysteria here is absurd (6+ / 0-)

    Gallup had Romney ahead for most of the race, and the polls were tightening well before the debate. Whatever's going on, the debate probably had very little to do with it.

    Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

    by NoFortunateSon on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:31:32 AM PDT

    •  EXACTLY (10+ / 0-)

      The debate is being used in the MSM to disguise what is really happening here.

      That the so-called Romney bounce has happened only among conservative whites is no accident. There has been no shift whatsover among minorities.

      These people were already planning to vote for Romney. And the debates are being used as a convenient excuse to cover up the real reason...

      •  Yes, and I wonder (0+ / 0-)

        what the women gap looks like post debate---that one is huge as women vote more, and are the largest group out there pro Obama.  Seen any stats on that?

        "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

        by StellaRay on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:47:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NoFortunateSon, StellaRay

      Not enough attention has been paid to the fact that the polls were tightening before the debate.

      Several days before the debate, Romney was coming out of the worst 2 weeks of his campaign.  The impact of the 47% comments was still being felt.  Very few people really expected Obama's lead during that period to remain or grow.  Whatever Obama does, Romney has a legitimate floor of at least 46%.  

      The debate hurt, of course.  Romney might have won if the election occurred the day after.  Contrary to this diarist, it is hardly clear that Romney is still ahead.  And whatever Gallup says, there is considerable evidence from other pollsters that his momentum has already peaked, and may be ebbing.

      My own hunch is that Obama will have a 2-3 point lead in a couple of days, with perhaps a little more strength in half of the swing states.

      •  The problem is voter suppression (0+ / 0-)

        For the Republicans - If their folks didn't show up, that's a total and complete loss - landslide territory.

        If instead it's that our folks who show up in majority - well, they have an answer for that - suppression, caging and outright fraud.

        They need their folks to show to prevent the election from being out of their reach.  Thus the meth-powered Mitt last week at the debate.

        So if it's close it could either be "turned" a la Florida 2000, or at the very least the congressional races could be bolster/saved/stolen/etc.

        --
        Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting

        by sacrelicious on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:04:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is wishfull thinking. I watched the debate, (10+ / 0-)

      and Obama was awful.  No sugar coating here.  He was a disaster.  Lethargic.  Nodding when Romney lied.  Failing to point out those lies.  Looking down and not engaging Romney or the audience.  I couldn't believe what I was seeing.

      It's clear who we want elected.  Now President Obama has to show - during a debate - why he wants to be elected.

      Enough with the lame excuses.  

       

      •  The next debate is a town hall (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        raincrow, NoFortunateSon

        and the Prez will do much better in this format. Plus Romney won't be able to hid his cheat notes.

      •  I didn't get that perception at all (0+ / 0-)

        Romney was good, Obama wasn't all that great, but then again, he never really is at these things.

        Now tell me: which would you rather have? Obama at his best in the debates, and a bad Friday's job report, or the reverse?

        Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

        by NoFortunateSon on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:45:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I want both (0+ / 0-)

          It's not a choice.  The jobs report was going to be whatever the numbers dictated.  Obama's performance was in his control.   Even if he's not as great debater, he can't let Romney spew lots of lies without challenge.

        •  There is no connection between the two (0+ / 0-)

          what do you think, that if Obama had kicked ass in the debate that somehow that would cause the jobs report to suck?  That makes no sense.

          "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

          by Subterranean on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:20:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  It's interesting that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cheerio2

        some Democrats are so eager to join the republicans in the notion that it doesn't matter how bad Romney's campaign has been to date, because he won the debate and that's all that matters.  Obama's WHOLE smart campaign no longer matters, all those successes down the drain, because Mitt won the first debate!

        The president was awful in that debate, no argument.  But to say that those who are keeping this thing in perspective are offering up lame excuses is not the case.

        "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

        by StellaRay on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:57:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Huffington Post - "He Can Win This Thing" (0+ / 0-)

      From the Huffington Post:

      The surprisingly strong debate performance by Republican nominee Mitt Romney against President Barack Obama last week has resulted in a dramatic tightening in the presidential race, according to tracking surveys conducted since Wednesday....

      ...Gallup is not alone in showing a shift to Romney. More than a dozen polls so far have measured voter preferences since the debate, both nationally and within key swing states. While they often differ on the levels of support for each candidate within individual states, they have shown a roughly similar shift toward Romney (4.5 percentage points on average) as the Gallup poll does nationwide.

      That debate may have cooked Big Bird's Goose.  He might want to start looking for another nest if Barack gives a repeat performance.

      If that is hysteria, so be it.  But right now we have a fight.

      Mrick

      Nate Silver:

      Much of the news media’s attention since the debate has been focused on Mr. Obama’s poor performance in Denver. From my vantage point, however, it was more Mr. Romney’s strong performance that stood out.

      If the polls settle in at showing something like a 1- or 2-point lead for Mr. Obama by this point next week, that would be reasonably well in line with where our model and others think that the election “should” be based on economic trends; it would no longer be as appropriate to think of Mr. Romney as being an underachieving candidate.

  •  thanks for your open eyed (0+ / 0-)

    Assessment, PBJ. I concur with what you're saying.

    Romney and Ryan are lying liars, never to be trusted

    I'm focusing on Gotv and down ticket races locally. I hope the Dem performances in next debates do what they need to accomplish, to move those ratings out of the Rovian cheating margins. But the performance is indeed on them.

    The dirty little secret of American politics: There is no way to vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs. ~ C.Hedges

    by cosmic debris on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:33:31 AM PDT

  •  These "family values" people who think lying (0+ / 0-)

    is a peachy keen way to improve one's likeability and to get ahead---- they totally confuse me.  What are all these so-called conservatives thinking?  They think it's perfectly fine for Romney to lie his way into the White House?  Is that the value they want to be teaching their kids?  I just don't get it.

    That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

    by concernedamerican on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:34:33 AM PDT

  •  It is bleak right now, (6+ / 0-)

    and unless Obama spends every hour, every day that he WANTS and DESERVES this job, we are surely done.

    We can play with Big Bird and call lies, but the game has changed SEVERELY.

  •  You need a reality check. (20+ / 0-)
    Romney would be a better than 50-50 shot if the election were held today.
    According to Nate Silver, if the election were held today, the chances of winning are President Obama 88.6%, Romney 11.4%.

    Hysterical much?

    •  But the election is not being held today (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pittdem, Subterranean

      And the preSjdent numbers are going down while Romney is going up.

      "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

      by sillycilla on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:41:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Did you even read my comment? (10+ / 0-)

        Diarist's 50-50 statement is garbage.  As is the rest of the diary. But apparently panic is great fun. Whatever.

      •  The diarist said IF election were held today (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        roycej, Supavash, Deep Texan, arabian

        Romney would have better than a 50-50 chance.

        And even so, Nate Silver underestimates the President's chances because he uses faulty Right-wing polling (GRAVIS, WeAskAmerica) in his models.

        Furthermore, your assertion that Romney's numbers are going up while President Obama's numbers are going down is not true.

        Some closeted racists who were going to vote for Romney anyway are just more comfortable saying on a phone survey that they support Romney. That's what the debate narrative accomplished. The key constituents are STILL supporting Obama.  Check this out:

        Latino Decisions tracking poll shows virtually no post-debate movement: Obama 72 Romney 20 http://www.latinodecisions.com/...
        And this:
        8 pt shift among white voters in Wisconsin over last 2 weeks from Obama +5 to Romney +3. No shift with non-whites: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
        •  Check the poll internals, (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          buffie, Micheline, erush1345

          MOTIVATION is highest among whites. If the electorate looks like 2008, no question Obama wins. But it won't. Young people, AA's, Latinos -- all lower intensity. The wildcard is: A LOT lower? Or only a little?

          Answer that and you know for certain.

          I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

          by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:03:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not true (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Supavash, Deep Texan, roycej

            Where did you get that motivation is highest among whites?

            Just a week ago, polls showed that AAs had the highest motivation of any demographic this election.

             

            Indeed, despite wide speculation that Obama will have to worry about lower enthusiasm and turnout among core groups — like African Americans and Latinos — the available polling suggests that this is an overblown concern. According to the most recent Pew poll, blacks are as engaged in the election as they were in 2008. Likewise, Public Policy Polling finds that African Americans are the single most excited group in the electorate — with Latinos a close second. Latino Decisions, which publishes a tracking poll of Latino public opinion, also finds high enthusiasm among the group: 46 percent report greater excitement for 2012 than 2008.
            http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

            I will tell you right now the idea that AAs are not motivated is hogwash and nothing more than a media-propagated myth, as well as wishful thinking on the part of some. And as I've said before, a scripted one-sided 90-minute debate is NOT going keep AAs aways from the polls. In fact, the media hysteria and nasty attacks on our President will get them even more motivated to vote.

          •  youre wrong about AA (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            roycej

            I'll give you young people for sure and Latinos to an extent but all the polling I've seen has AA as the most enthusiastic group. Count me among them. That will go a long way in this election.

    •  That's according to Nate's "model", (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      eXtina, Midwesterners, glutz78, Mrick

      Nate himself said if the election were held Thursday Romney would surely have won.

      Don't underestimate momentum -- it can add several points if people percieve it...

      I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

      by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:43:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That was Thursday (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        roycej, Supavash, c0wfunk, Deep Texan

        Nate certainly is not saying that Romney would win if the election were held today.

      •  Today is Monday, not last Thursday. (5+ / 0-)

        Nate's "now-cast" gives the percentages I quoted. Shall I repeat your statement from your diary published today?

        Romney would be a better than 50-50 shot if the election were held today.
        Nate disagrees. I think I'll take his analysis over yours.
        •  Too bad we can't bet, (0+ / 0-)

          (since the election isn't today). I could use the money.

          I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

          by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:05:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Just get lost (0+ / 0-)

            I saw you in a movie last night.

            It was a disaster movie where one of the surviviors flips out says "Oh my God, we are all going to die" just before doing something stupid that gets him killed.

            You are overstating how good the polls are for Romney.

            All you are doing is trying to depress Obama supporters.   We all know about the debate.   The idea is to work for his re-election.  If you do not want to do that, then fine, but get lost.  The rest of us will work for Obama.

      •  If the election were held on Thursday (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash, c0wfunk, Deep Texan, MKSinSA, arabian

        President Obama would have had a DIFFERENT debate strategy on Wednesday.

        All the hypotheticals used by the likes of you and Nate Silver are flawed because they make the faulty assumption that the debate would have been the same...

        No it wouldn't. Obama would not go into a debate with that strategy the day before an election. Obama is very good at timing - even if many of us don't get it.

      •  I don't think Nate Silver said that, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        assyrian64, roycej

        but I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.

        Got a link?

        Until the economy recovers, I'll settle for cheap laughs

        by Clyde the Cat on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:03:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I embellished slightly (0+ / 0-)
          It seems quite possible that Mr. Romney would have had at least an even-money chance of winning an election conducted on Thursday exactly, when his polling was very strong...
          Based mostly on the factors of momentum and inertia, I put him over the top, but even "nearly" 50/50 is alarmingly different than 15% chance, and the point is we underestimate the threat at our peril.

          I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

          by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:14:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You also took the quote out of context... (5+ / 0-)

            Here it is, verbatim, but in the context of what he wrote:

            At the same time, the more common error is probably to overrate the importance of near-term shifts in the polls. It’s not just that these fluctuations may literally reflect random noise because of the sampling error in polls. It’s also the case that polling in presidential general elections has fairly strong mean-reversion tendencies — a fancy way of saying that some changes may be real, but short-lived. It seems quite possible that Mr. Romney would have had at least an even-money chance of winning an election conducted on Thursday exactly, when his polling was very strong — but there was apparently less strength in his numbers on Saturday.

            Until the economy recovers, I'll settle for cheap laughs

            by Clyde the Cat on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:24:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  So he kind of, sort of almost (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Clyde the Cat, MKS

            said something like that.

            Nice.

          •  So you lied? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            roycej

            You think this is all about ending denial, and you lie?

            We know the truth, accept it, and have decided (most of us) to move forward to help keep the Whithouse.

            All you are apparently doing is bitching.

          •  If the truth don't fit --- embellish it! nt (0+ / 0-)
      •  Nate also says his model under values Romney (0+ / 0-)

        It is treating a real event like noise.

        Intrade has dropped a lot but still shows Obama about a 64% favorite if I remember correctly.

        Mrick

    •  538..78% Obama - 21% Romney (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PorridgeGun

      Not 88/11..It has never been that high..

    •  NEWS FLASH: Unemployment dropped from 8.1% to 7.8 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, MKS

      just saying.

      If EVEN Rasmussen is saying the Romney bounce has faded, showing Obama pulling back a 2% today, I think it's safe to assume that it has. Also, Gallup is a 7 day tracker.

  •  I love the smell of realism in the morning. (0+ / 0-)

    It smells like....

    So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

    by illinifan17 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:37:24 AM PDT

  •  Look at Sept 25 to Sept 28. Obama led by six. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Deep Texan, PorridgeGun, rennert

    This is a seven-day rolling average.

    http://www.gallup.com/...

    Look at Sept 25 to Sept 28. Obama led by six. The race tightened to 49-45 by Sept 30. Clearly, Romney had some good polling days there. That's a pre-debate polling period.

    Even showing three days, especially given that's it steady at 47 percent, meaning it didn't increase for those three days, the current 49 to 46 is what Gallup shows. That point is made in the piece. Obama is still leading/

    It's now five days post-debate.

  •  I highly doubt tied with Gallup (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Deep Texan, PorridgeGun

    My estimate is that the Thursday and Friday samplings had Romney ahead by at least 2-3 pts and that the Saturday sampling was tied or Obama plus 1 or 2.  The Saturday sampling was significant in that it prevented Obama from cratering - the composite would have likely been dead even if Romney had continued to be ahead and it would have meant that Romney would have almost certainly been ahead in today's numbers.  Today's numbers are still important and Obama could still crater today, but I think it is less likely.

    Of course, all of this is premised on the fact that you think trackers are worthwhile barometers of the race.  I don't think they are.

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:42:05 AM PDT

  •  Keep in mind this isn't their 7 day tracker. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, We Won, PorridgeGun

    Obama regains the lead tomorrow.

    Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

    by natedogg265 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:43:00 AM PDT

    •  Well it's a piece of their tracker. (0+ / 0-)

      Which is what you are saying, I think.  They just published 3 of their 7 days seperately to show post debate performance.  Their daily samples are so small that I think the new cycle impact can be outsized.  If BO polls better the next few days, the 7 day tracker may never itself be a tie.  Gallup had POTUS tied, up one, down one, most of the summer and people here were pretty comfortable with the race because State polls were good and Gallup is thought to have a couple of point Repup lean.  Now they pull out 3 days of their sample as a tie and everyone freaks out.

  •  Rasmussen has them tied this morning (7+ / 0-)

    Better than yesterday, that had Romney had +2.

    Also, from their Consumer Index Report:

    The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, gained seven points on Monday to 93.2. That’s an increase of 11 points since Friday’s jobs report. Overall, confidence is up four points from a week ago, up nine points from a month ago and up three points from three months ago.

    Prefers airplane windows stay closed.

    by smunker on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:43:02 AM PDT

  •  Aside from the title (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Murchadha

    good dose of reality...rec'd

  •  Just clawed back two in House of Ras (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Fury

    47-49 to 48-48.

    Let's go.

  •  Gained ten points in favorability? (0+ / 0-)

    Seriously? I weep for this country

    "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

    by eXtina on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:45:40 AM PDT

    •  Don't trust this Diarest (0+ / 0-)

      He has admitted he exaggerated in a prior post upthread.  He basically lied.

      He has an agenda that is tied up with an Alcoholics Anonymous principle that has no application here. So, he is inflicting us with his own issue.

      •  What a sleazy post (0+ / 0-)

        You personally assault the diarist for being a recovering alcoholic?  That's fucking low, man.

        And he did not LIE, he said if the election were held Thursday, Romney would have won, which is what Nate Silver said.  

        "Inflicting us with his own issue"?  What the hell does that even mean?  If you feel "inflicted" by reality then maybe you need to take the time to get to know it.

        "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

        by Subterranean on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:34:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, read again (0+ / 0-)

          The diarest himself said that he was using his principles of denial as part of his recovery (and it is pretty clear he is talking about AA.)

          My point is that those principles don't work here because Kossacks in "denial" were not the ones who actually debated.

          No, I greatly value Alcoholics Anonymous and other twelve step programs.  They are the only method that has proven to work.

          What I do not like and greatly resent is someone hijacking AA principles for a political debate.  He got it wrong about the principle of denial.  

          "His issue" is his view of "denial" and AA principles.

          I value the Progran and Bill W. and Dr. Bob, and yahoos like the diarest are destructive.  

  •  Well at least I hope this stops the nonsense (3+ / 0-)

    that Obama didn't really lose the debate.  He lost badly.  It was a disaster.  

    Two more performances like that and he will lose and his money haul in September won't stop it.  

    Sure his supporters need to stay the course and put in the effort but President Obama needs to wake up and show the voters he is fighting for them.   He needs to go after Romney and his lies during the debate, not in a stump speech the next day.

    I'm tired of saying this but Obama has a responsibility beyond his race.  Winning by one vote is all well and good but he has a responsibility to win by as big a margin as possible to help down-ticket races around the country.  

  •  I think the point is that there is a bit of (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kat68, Supavash, rennert, Subterranean

    Turmoil injected into this race as a result of a bad debate.  It certainly stalled Obama's momentum.  But it is temporary.  He has been doing some good things since and his vote appears to bevery solid.  But the diarist is right in that Obama will have to make the case in debate format in order to fully restore the race to its pre-debate trend.  There are 2 challenges for the President, each of which is very achievable if his head is in the right place:

    - provide a stirring defense of his own policies.
    - rebut Romney lies at every turn.

    He has to be politician Obama, not bipartisan Obama.  It's really only he who can fix it.  I believe based on past performance that he will.  I also think that Romney will not offer much more than he already has so the paper trail exists to prepare from.

    We received good news over the weekend with some state polling and national tracking polling, but the next 3 days will be challenging for Democrats until we get another bite at the apple with the VP debate.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:46:19 AM PDT

    •  From your keyboard to gods ears. I really hope (0+ / 0-)

      Your right.

      "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

      by sillycilla on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:01:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think history backs me up on this. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mirandasright

        Sitting Presidents and VPs have a really hard time in first debates because the challenger has a low bar to clear, the officeholders have a day job, and they are generally on the defensive side because it's their administration's policies that are at issue.  

        Based on today's NYT article, Obama had a particularly difficult time even scheduling debate practice given his busy schedule.  Libya and Syria probably had a lot to do with that.

        However, sitting Presidents and VPs tend to do very well in follow-up debates.  They have more focus, and the expectation level is more balanced.  The people will forgive a bad debate performance if the President comes back with a better quality performance.  He doesn't even need to win it by the same or even similar lopsided margin that Romney won debate #1.  He just has to make his supporters feel good about the performance.  That's what Bush did in 2004.  He didn't do that well in either debate #2 or debate #3, but he was better than debate #1 and that was good enough for his people to rally to him.

        Obama will likely do much better comparatively and that will change the media narrative.  

        Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

        by khyber900 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:48:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Bad news is (0+ / 0-)

      that the next debate is townhall format.  The very thing O needed to do to counteract that performance in the past debate lends itself very poorly to the townhall format

  •  Is it a bump up, or just a bounce? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rennert, Subterranean

    I think it's just the latter. Romney is having some good polling days because of the media coverage of the debate debacle.

    Yes, it was something of a debacle. Obama's failure (again !!) to confront and denounce right wing lies and policy is, and has been one of the greatest weaknesses of his presidency.

    And yes, we need to campaign more forcefully against the increasingly extremist Republican brand, starting at the top of the ticket and going clear through to the bottom.

    Still, this is just a bad few days. There are more debates, more economic and foreign policy news events to come in the next month.

    So keep your heads up all y'all. Work hard and win this thing on 11/6.

    Come 11/7 we need to fight the Villager austerity nonsense  (and don't even get me started about the way we kowtow to the right leaning, insipid Beltway MSM),
    and the Catfood Commission, and sadly our own president, but first things first.

  •  It's not 47 - 47 (10+ / 0-)

    That's an attention grabbing article by both you and Gallup.

    From the article

    Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.
    This is an article about yesterday's Gallup poll.

    Why don't we try this game tomorrow, I'll bet that the last three day's average (October 5, 6, 7) will have Obama ahead.

    Can't you people see what's going on with these polls and the news cycles?

    Some of the media want a horse race. (I suspect Gallup to be in this category). Obama is leading their 7 day poll, 49 - 46. They can internally already see what's happening (Obama is widening his lead again). so before the new numbers come out, they proclaim a tie to generate more interest.

    Other pollsters (Rasmussen, We Ask America, etc) are trying to set a narrative. That narrative is that the debate was a game changer.

    Work your butt off, donate, do both if you can to ensure a Democratic victory in four weeks. But also understand that falling into the narrative that the media wants to set helps Romney.

    Bottom line, Don't Fall for the Media's Narrative!

  •  The House of Ras is now showing a tie... (3+ / 0-)

    I would be surprised if Obama doesn't gain in Gallup today or at least stay the same.

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:48:05 AM PDT

  •  If Romney wins, he earned it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    He lied, cheated and did whatever it took to win. America likes winners, even those who are assholes. Obama? not so much.

  •  If the media (MSNBC) had not dogged (7+ / 0-)

    The president the numbers would not have tanked as bad.  Fox would not have done that to Romney.  We always screw ourselves.

  •  Have none of you been through an election before? (13+ / 0-)

    Breath, chill out.  Expectations for Mittens in the first debate were so incredibly low it was going to be a tie or a win for him unless he showed up naked with Dick Cheney chained to his wrists.  

    I saw this and I'm no political strategist.  History in previous debates involving an incumbent has proven this over and over again.  There's no doubt in my mind the Obama team anticipated this.

    Take a look at my diary on this, breath and have some faith in these guys - they are the best political operation in the history of politics.

    My hope is maybe this will all light a bit of a fire under some peoples butts - cause very frankly,  the narrative before the debate was pretty much Obama has it all wrapped up - and I was a bit worried about complacency on the part of democrats.

    A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

    by maddrailin on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:57:08 AM PDT

    •  This diary and my comments are about (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash

      the dangers of complacency, denial and underestimation.

      (self) Honesty is a prerequisite to victory.

      I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

      by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:08:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wrong, this is not an AA meeting (0+ / 0-)

        We Kossacks are not the debaters ourselves personally.

        What is the behavior that you want to motivate?  A glass half full attitude is necessary to win.

        Do you think our guys at Normandy wanted to have some asshole say "we are all going to die?"

        Trying to break denial might make some sense if we were actually the ones to debate and we needed to change our debate preparation.  The idea is to make sure that the behavior changes...

        Here we are trying to motivate one another to work hard. We are not preparing for the debate, so your attempt to use AA principles here is misguided and very destructive.

  •  The Bounce is Over (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, Hopefruit2, Deep Texan

    Check out this diary with links to the latest polls from Ras and PPP.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Brand new favorite RSS feed of Daily Kos Radio Podcasts http://kagrox.libsyn.com/rss
    Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

    by We Won on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:05:31 AM PDT

  •  Real clear politics playing games (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hopefruit2

    They are using this tie number on their site  it's not Gallups tracking number. They really are playing games this year to lower Obama's number.

    •  Yes they are (0+ / 0-)

      I am amazed at how quickly some here seem to buy into these manipulated polls.  It makes me really wonder..

      If anyone has a twitter account I strongly recommend that you follow this guy (Jeff Gauvin). He is a very astute and cuts through the BS, and is aware of how the media and polling outfits work in tandem to manipulate the narrative to help Romney seem more competitive than he is.

      Again, Steve Forbes Run RCP Plays Games With The #POLL AVG: (POLL AVG SNIPPING) pic.twitter.com/CVoxssmL @ryanwitt
      https://twitter.com/...
  •  Stop making shit up about Romney's chances (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lockewasright

    You say he has a better then 50 50 chance of winning based . Based on what ??? No disrespect but Nate Silver knows a whole lot more about this than you do and he's not saying that so why the fuck should anyone believe you ?  Just because you said it ? Are you channeling your inner Republican that just makes shit up and then says it must be true because you said it ?

    •  No disrespect but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Subterranean

      Nate is not "his model".

      His model is a mathematical algorithm based on numerous factors -- but DOES NOT include intangibles like perception or news events. If Obama ate a kitty on live TV the model would not react, but the electorate would.

      I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

      by PBJ Diddy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:20:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What is the behavior you want (0+ / 0-)

        to change by your so-called effort to puncture denial?

        Hope and optimism motivate people.  That is especially true for Obama supporters.  You are trying to take away people's hope.  That will not motivate.

        The reason you give for "embellishing" (your words, below) Romney's changes is to shake us up out of denial.  So, you embellish??

        We are not on an alcoholic binge here, and do not need AA priniciples and a dose of anti-denial.  We did not debate--Obama did.  

        If you wanted to shake us up, so we could do a better debate, your approach (but not your twisiting of facts) might make sense.  But we have no control over the debate, the last one or the next one.  We do have control over our attitude and being able to convince others to vote for Obama and do GOTC etc.

        Your misguided brand of naysaying will not help motivate anyone.  It just depresses them.

        A glass half full attitude, rather than a glass half empty view is needed.  Don't take away people's hope--especailly using bad facts.

        Right now today, no one, not one major pollster shows Romney ahead.  That is a fact.  

      •  Eating a kitty on live TV (0+ / 0-)

        is not the same thing as a debate. It's never happened before,  whereas there is a history of polling and debates to consult to make educated guesses about the effect of a debate on the polls. (which Nate Silver has already done). Bottom line is that you didn't provide a shred of evidence to support your assertion that Romney has better than even odds of winning. Throwing out numbers without any evidence (other than what I can only characterize as some  of  "gut feel") is just plain irresponsible. We get plenty of that from the other side already - we don't need it on ours.

  •  Obama has been making the case for months. (4+ / 0-)

    He's been doing it quite well.

    Yes, he had one bad night, and it was a very important night.  That is not good.

    Nonetheless, I have confidence that he will effectively make his case over the next month, because I've been watching him do so for months now.

    Art is the handmaid of human good.

    by joe from Lowell on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:11:44 AM PDT

  •  This diary is indicative (5+ / 0-)

    of what's been wrong the past 3.x years. "Only Barack Obama" can do this or do that. Obama doesn't win elections, his supporters do. If Romney wins, he can thank the Wall St. bankers, Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, Jack Welch, etc. They put what they have into the game .. money. And money bought people.

    We may not have an equal amount of financial wherewithal but we have people. People who in past may have sat back and believed "Only Barack Obama" can do it in past but people who need to do as Dick Armey did: recruit. His money alone didn't win the healthcare messaging, he recruited people. And those people showed up and screamed and yelled and didn't care if they were shutting down town halls or the halls of Congress.

    This collective resignation is killing me. I cannot stand it and I'm sick of Dems glomming onto Repbs talking and trying to debunk them. Get your own: women, health, environment, middle class and run them forward. All we end up doing with all this "debunking" is a) giving the insanity credence and b) keeping ourselves mired back where they want us to be. In the meantime? They're quietly passing laws that strip away voting and reproductive rights and giving guns free sway.

    To quote the biggest whiner on the face of the earth, "Stop it. This is hard."

  •  asdf (7+ / 0-)

    Why has no one pointed out that Obama leads in the Gallup Daily Tracker that counts LIKELY VOTERs while this insipid 47-47 tie is, for some reason, of REGISTERED VOTERS?

    Apples and oranges.

    Anything to 'generate news' instead of merely report it.

    Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

    by GayIthacan on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:18:20 AM PDT

  •  get real (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, Supavash, Deep Texan, lockewasright

    romney would not be a better thn 50/50 favorite. nate silver has him around 25%. obama had a bad night, and those denying it are embarrassing, but this race is not close to tied where it matters- the electoral map.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:20:23 AM PDT

  •  The current Gallup 7-day average is 49-46 Obama. (5+ / 0-)

    The last three days of polling are 47-47.

    •  Gallup's daily numbers come out after lunch. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Deep Texan, InformedDiva

      We'll see what they look like later today.

    •  But which are the last three days? (0+ / 0-)

      This is the part I'm confused about.

      Is it the three days including Thurs night, Fri night and Sat night? Are those showing the tie? Is it Fri, Sat and Sun?  A 7-day sample will have Mon, Tue and Wed (pre-debate) and then Thur, Fri, Sat and Sun.  If it's a big Romney bump on Thurs and Friday (seen elsewhere) then we won't see much in the 7-day sample released today.  But remember that Obama had some massively good day on Tue or Wed when they showed his approval numbers jacking up to 54%. So a 3-day sample after that is going to show a drop too.

      Can somebody clarify?

      •  Read the piece. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Elrod, InformedDiva
        October 8, 2012

        Registered voters' preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday's presidential debate.

        ...

        Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.

    •  yes the three days from.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      InformedDiva

      10/4 to 10/6 did anyboy notice that their numbers ended on saturday not yesterday. The poll showing it tied anyways.

  •  Losing Wish (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Subterranean

    There is no room for error on either side now, but Obama is still ahead by a hair. There is lots of evidence out there it is a 1-2 point race with Obama on top. The question that really bothers me is has the race stabilized? Nate Silver seems to think that may be the case, but if we have one more bad debate performance it could be all over. As bad as this might seem, this was always the race we were going to have at best. The left wing thinks Obama's communication skills are second to none and they are only mediocre. He can give a good speech, but otherwise compared to Bill Clinton or Michelle, it is painful listening to the man. He isn't even giving good speeches anymore. His convention speech was disappointing to put it mildly. I don't know whats going on. It is like he has a losing wish. He is going into debate two and three with those same skills and that isn't going to change, but what is worse is the attitude. Its the same freakin attitude that left large contributors feeling unappreciated when none of them were thanked.  The left wing took Romney for an idiot, when in fact he is a very intelligent accomplished communicator, even if every other sentence is a lie or a complete betrayal of his principles from the day before.

    If Barack Obama were the same person I saw in 2008, I wouldn't worry. He isn't and it isn't 2008. We are not going to win this one without him even though Bill Clinton is out there doing his best. We are not going to win this no matter how hard each and every one of us works to make that happen. Joe Biden can have a great debate and it still will not matter. We need the same guy that went out there starving to win in 2008. We need the same guy that inspired tens of thousands of us to work to make that happen. Is he there? I don't know.

  •  This idea that Obama (11+ / 0-)

    Isn't working hard and doesn't want this thing is infuriating and insulting. He's campaigning, traveling almost everyday and, let's not forget, he has a very important, demanding day job. I haven't checked this out but I'm pretty sure the repubs didn't question Reagan's commitment when he lost the debate to Mondale. I don't remember people being so harsh on Bush II either.  This idea that some repubs are throwing around that Obama insulted the American public with his lackluster performance is something I haven't heard before and the fact that dems are echoing that sentiment is disturbing.

  •  I can see the hand wringing will continue (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, InformedDiva, cheerio2

    At least until Thursday's debate. Folks, stop obsessing over something that's done. We're halfway to the second debate. Obama heard the response.

  •  The media wants a horserace but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Subterranean

    the truth is ...If this was not a bad siutation we would not still be talking about it almost a week out.

    Obama reminds me of Rocky III.  The eye of the tiger is there ..the day after.  70 million and half of them are gullible nuts who base things on IN the moment and have no memory at all of how they got in this mess.  I have to agree with the diarist and say Obama has to want this more than Rmoney and right now I have to see that..So far, not so much.

    We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

    by Vetwife on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:27:07 AM PDT

    •  i think he sandbagged the debate to (0+ / 0-)

      reset expectations and trick the republicans into unloading early.

      his people weren't upset by his performance afterwards is what makes me think that.  

      -You want to change the system, run for office.

      by Deep Texan on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:33:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Helluva gamble especially with Florida (0+ / 0-)

        in play.

        We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

        by Vetwife on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:37:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  not really (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Vetwife

          historically the first debate just isn't that important.

          it was the best time to reset expectations.  they obviously had plenty of thinking going into this.  he didn't mention the 47% and other notables.

          the tell is his people directly after the debate.  msnbc is flipping out and his people are happy with his performance.

          i grew up with gambling and sandbagging is very popular. i think that explains it better than any other explanation as well.

          sure i could be wrong.  but we're seeing now that the bump Romney got was short lived.  they might have already knew the jobs numbers were going to be good.  

          who knows.  i do know one thing.  i am not worried.  i am not giving up.  

          -You want to change the system, run for office.

          by Deep Texan on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:00:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh I am not giving up I just want (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Subterranean, Deep Texan

            Biden unleased and Obama to make him cry.
            this is war and nice guys finish last.  The supreme court, our very American way is at stake so let the hammer down in HIS FACE and up close and personal.  Enough of the smiles at tea crap.  People want a blood sport.... ( metaphorically)...Give it to them..Rmoney drew first blood with the lies.  I don't want to bury more war dead including the ones denied healthcare and planned parenthood.  Not even counting wars in the middle east.

            We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

            by Vetwife on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:07:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  yeah we all want that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Vetwife

              we're partisans.

              sometimes that's what the general public wants too.

              they gambled and lost.  however, i think that was on purpose in part.  for various reasons. they didn't want to turn off independents or undecided voters.

              even though the optics of Obama losing the debate are bad, it might end up being a good thing.  it's hard to say looking at the polls.  

              i think we'll have to wait until the next debate.

              -You want to change the system, run for office.

              by Deep Texan on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:05:04 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  We are partisan and reasonable they are partisan (0+ / 0-)

                and insane and so are any one left undecided...Insane I mean.  The man has been running for president longer than Obama has been in the federal elections.

                We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

                by Vetwife on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 01:31:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  No, we'd still be talking about it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      arabian

      Perceptions often create reality, and unfortunately the Democratic Party contains a large number of self-defeatists who are quite chatty about their predictions of doom and gloom.  I honestly think that if people on our side and in the media treated this as no big deal, then it would have less of an impact than it has (and I still don't think that it will have a permanent impact).  

      But, starting with MSNBC seconds after the debate ended, there has been a collective freakout which I can only imagine makes our side appear much worse and less in control to the undecided voter.  And, that's why I think efforts like this diary are conuter-productive, especially because they do not bring any new or special insight to the table and they only serve as group therapy sessions.

      The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

      by rfahey22 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:50:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why are we so bad at the game of preceptions? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    InformedDiva, rfahey22, Loquatrix, rennert

    These national polls, especially the tracking polls, had the race tied for 95% of election. Now, suddenly Mitt stands next to President Obama and people didn't expect them to tighten up again?

    What would the diarist have said when the polls tightened and the commentariat declared President Obama the "winner"?

    For those of us in battleground regions, if you're in a safe Democratic state, do us a favor and stop with the over-top diaries.

  •  This terror over polls is getting annoying (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou

    Ok, so this is a diary about a subset of Gallup polls, which ironically tells everyone else not to parse polls.  Got it.  

    I think the best thing some people in this community could possibly do is to step away from the Internet for a few days, allow some more real polling to be done over the upcoming week (i.e., not snap polls shortly after the debate) and, I don't know, take a walk, paint a picture, or do something else with their time.  There's no analysis going on here and none of these diaries actually make people work harder, even though that is the stated aim of their authors.  It's all a bunch of wasted energy.

    The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

    by rfahey22 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:36:19 AM PDT

  •  OH GOOD GRIEF!!!!!!! (3+ / 0-)

    read this CHICKEN LITTLES???? Rasmussen of all pollsters show Obama tied as of today after having him down 2 yesterday. Gallup's poll is from the period of thursday through saturday all to drive a narrative and it doesn't include yesterday's polling either. Furthermore Rasmussen also shows Obama going from -3 in Iowa to +2 . Politico/Battleground ? oh wow Obama went just from +2 pre-debate to +1 post debate.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  Enough (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    InformedDiva

    Gallup and Rasmussen 95% of the time show a close race. Just stop this please....Those are national polls not state by state poll numbers.  

    Oracle2021: Reality according to Mitt Romney "Why tell the truth when a lie will suffice...the bigger the lie the bigger the pay off"

    by Oracle2021 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:47:56 AM PDT

  •  Just imagine (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    maddrailin, smartdemmg, arabian

    How many voters the diarist could have called in the amount of time it took to type a dooms diary predicated on a three day rolling, registered voters poll.  

    Nevermind the Prez is holding his own electorally. Nevermind post debate state polls from PPP showing Obama still up in CO, WI and VA.  Nevermind initial snap polls show indies breaking Obamas way and women even moreso.  Nevermind all post debate movement for Romney comes solely from his base.  Yes, let's ignore all that and select a poll that has shown a tie for virtually the entire race and declare this means the Obama presidency is over.

    BTW, speak for yourself, Obama won the debate.  I do substance, not lying or dazzle dazzle.

  •  Until something changes in Ohio, then Obama.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    InformedDiva

    ...is the strong favorite.

    If he wins Ohio, then president Obama only needs one of these three(Vir., Wis., Col) plus one of these two (Iowa, Nev.)

  •   HONESTLY I couldn't answer Your Poll (0+ / 0-)

    Because all weekend we've been busting GOP POLLS for heavens sake one poll by a conservative group had Romney with 37% Black voters with a MOE of 6 points!

    ANYONE who 'believes' all polls now is in denial that the GOP pollsters must all be on the up an up. Not true.

    Having said that Republicans are depending upon voter suppression, have been caught in Voter fraud, so

    Romney -Obama race is one thing

    GOP hoping STILL to triple the 2000 election FRAUD in multiple states

    AND that's the REAL ISSUE for me.

    Re-Elect President Barack Obama & RECALL GOP 2012

    by Wary on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:50:03 AM PDT

  •  asdf (4+ / 0-)

    "How come when it’s us, it’s an abortion, and when it’s a chicken, it’s an omelette?" - George Carlin

    by yg17 on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:51:11 AM PDT

  •  Don't use AA principles here (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, smartdemmg, kefauver

    The diarest has it wrong.

    The idea of puncturirg denial is wrongheaded here.  All it does is depress Obama supporters.

    We are not the ones who actually debated.   So, trying to hurt Kossacks by puntcturing their "denial" has nothing to do with AA.

    Depressing Kossacks will not motivate.  This is not an AA meeting.

    We know about the debate.   No need to whine, bitch and moan.

    Stop whining.

    •  You stop whining (0+ / 0-)

      The last thing we need is kossacks to walk around with their heads in the clouds whistling smugly to themselves.  Obama can still lose, and he didn't make it easier with that debate.

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:01:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You are not getting the point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kefauver

        The attempt to attack "smug" Kossacks has no point.  You are only tearing them down, and using "embellished" data as the diarest himself has admitted.   That is twisted.

        You guys and your fetish with tearing others down over data that is at best incomplete, are not helping with reality--you are just tearing people down.

        We can read the polls.

        Stop with the hissy fit over others trying to point the glass is half full.

      •  Diarist Has Been Proven Wrong. (0+ / 0-)

        Carry on.

        Obamacare is upheld by the SCOTUS. Time for some Kossacks to eat a plate of crow.

        by kefauver on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 01:05:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  If the American people could elect Bush (once) (0+ / 0-)

    then they are capable of voting for any dishonest moron out there.
       Obama needs to come out and make his case for why we should vote for him.

    ¡Cállate o despertarás la izquierda! - protest sign in Spain

    by gjohnsit on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:52:49 AM PDT

  •  You guys are gonna drive yourselves (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jaywillie, Subterranean

    crazy obsessing over this shit.

    Obama needs to come out and punk that sociopath bitch next week.  He got a bigass steroid injection on Friday with the economic news, he needs to take that muscle maxer and beat the shit out of that lying fuck.

    VULTURE/VOUCHER 2012. FUCK YOU, MIDDLE CLASS!

    by GOPGO2H3LL on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:58:56 AM PDT

  •  This is exactly how I see it too (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Subterranean

    I'm not quite as eloquent but this has exactly how I've viewed things since the debate.  I know people who's minds were changed and not in a small way.  Romney completely redefined himself and sadly so did Obama.  The fact that it is all based on lies of historic proportions seems to carry little weight; the President had a tenuous lead on people deciding to give him the benefit of the doubt which is not a strong foundation and based on 90 minutes of reality TV that foundation was eroded.
    The President apparently did not realize what is at stake, how duplicitous his opponents are and that the nice guy might just finish last.  I'm worried gang, very worried.

    •  Jobs report blunted the impact (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FiredUpInCA

      Romney has two tasks at hand:
      1. Convince people that Obama should be replaced
      2. Convince people that he is the man to do it.

      Romney did a decent job on #2.  But the jobs report made #1 almost impossible. Rasmussen, of all polls, showed economic confidence spiking after the jobs report, so people definitely paid attention. If Romney can't win on #1, then #2 is irrelevant.

  •  The tracker is not showing a tie... (4+ / 0-)

    Maybe time to amend the title of this diary?

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

    by First Amendment on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:01:33 AM PDT

    •  Umm yeah this diary is misleading (5+ / 0-)

      Actually reading the Gallup article, they basically pulled 3 days out of their 7 day poll, which merely reflects where things were in the Gallup poll on those 3 days.  But the actual poll released shows Obama up by 3.

      What this diary should have been about is why did Gallup pull 3 days out of a 7 day poll to highlight?!  Narrative anyone?!

      Or this diary could have been about Obama the comeback kid.  "Look, the race tied after what I feel was a bad debate, but look how he turned it around in the 3 days following and look, he leads by 3."

      Very misleading diary once I dug a little more into the substance.  Can we stop with the razzle dazzle?!

      •  Yes, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kefauver

        There are several mis-statements in this diary, and by the diarist in the comments.  The one that really bothered me was where he says he took the liberty of changing Nate's "50-50 chances if the election were held today," to having Nate say Mitt would win.  This goes beyond concern, and straight into TRYING to depress enthusiasm and pull down those who still have PLENTY of momentum to re-elect the president.

        "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

        by StellaRay on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:14:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Finally! A diary with some basic common sense. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    c0wfunk

    However, I think the picture is slightly brighter than you present. The truth is that all the polling you site is national polling, which is in the end, really meaningless. This election will be decided in the key battleground states, where Obama is still ahead, perhaps by smaller margins than before but ahead nonetheless. So while I would not be sanguine, it's no reason to panic either.

    "crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government" -Thomas Jefferson

    by Phil In Denver on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:05:28 AM PDT

  •  Serious question... (4+ / 0-)

    Why is this diary on the rec list?

    Why is Mitt Rmoney so happy that an American embassy was attacked? Why does he hate America?

    by RichM on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:11:21 AM PDT

  •  he's currently lost the momentum but you're wrong (3+ / 0-)

    Nate Silver still shows him odds on favorite as 4 to 1 odds.  I won't be happy til we get above 95 percent odds, which means Romney can only win by stealing.

    For those of you who prefer Bartlett to Obama, re-watch the West Wing. For those who prefer Clinton, re-watch old news videos.

    by Ptolemy on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:17:43 AM PDT

  •  Nate Silver disagrees (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    First Amendment, kefauver

    His numbers show that the President is still in the lead. Now, that lead is shrinking. However, Obama had a 85 to 15 lead going into the debate. Now its 76 to 24. Also, the Pres still enjoys comfortable leads in Ohio, VA, IA, and CO

    If it narrows further, then things will be bad. However, I expect Biden and Obama to come out swinging with the new unemployment and deficit figures during the next two debates.

    It gets better (I hope).

    •  Nate was severely hedging both ways last night (0+ / 0-)

      I think Nate see the trend going either way at this point.  His article posted last night was hedging both ways.  As much as I hate trackers, I think today's numbers will be important in terms of reporting, and possibly supporting, momentum for either candidate.

      In any case, this is a huge departure from where we were pre-debate.  The debate was historic in that sense.  Rarely do debates change the entire dynamics of a race like this one did.  

      Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

      by JCPOK on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:01:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wrong. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kefauver

        John Kerry's first debate against Bush brought him back into the race with a much bigger bounce than Romney's by anyone's reckoning. Regan lost his first debate badly to Mondale, and set off a huge meme that he was too old to lead.

        The "entire dynamics" of politic races often APPEAR to change with the news cycle and the media meme. But the real dynamics of this race can be seen in the electoral college, where Obama still has a commanding lead.  

        "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

        by StellaRay on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 10:21:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  is Gallup released at noon eastern? (0+ / 0-)

    eom

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 08:56:15 AM PDT

  •  There is something fishy going on (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FiredUpInCA

    Gallup normally releases at 1 pm eastern.  This "sample" is from data that is now a day old.  I assume they will do their normal release including Sunday data at 1.  Then let's see what that says.

    What's the difference between Palin and Cheney? Answer: lipstick!

    by Beauregard on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 09:44:33 AM PDT

  •  Hey THE SKY IS NO FALLING!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver, FiredUpInCA

      SUPER BAMA IS BACK!!!!!! THE MAN HAS JUST ERASED THE TIE AND IS BACK UP 5 !!!!! ALL IN JUST 5 HOURS!!!!!!!

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site