While attention stays focused on the words said at the first Presidential debate, and how well or poorly they were spoken, there is a trend gaining momentum in the real world in which Americans actually live; the economy is getting stronger. The economy, by every account and by all sides, is acknowledged to be the central issue dominating this election campaign. Interesting then that so little is being said about the following, either individually or in total.
Home prices rebound
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 25, 2012: 10:11 AM ET
http://money.cnn.com/...
"In another sign of a turnaround in the long-battered real estate market, average home prices rebounded in July to the same level as they were nine years ago..."
"The news on home prices in this report confirm recent good news about housing," said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Single-family housing starts are well ahead of last year's pace, existing home sales are up, the inventory of homes for sale is down and foreclosure activity is slowing."
Dow Jones index closes at new 5-year high
Adam Shell, USA TODAY
5:08PM EST October 5. 2012
http://www.usatoday.com/...
..."The fact that the market is hitting fresh five-year highs will remind people how incredibly well the market has done and that the equity culture is not dead," says Tim Fidler, portfolio manager at Ariel Investments. "It will most definitely catch the attention of people who have been pulling money out of the market."
U.S. Downgrade Seen as Upgrade as U.S. Debt Dissolved
By John Detrixhe - Oct 9, 2012 1:43 PM ET
http://www.bloomberg.com/...
U.S. debt has shrunk to a six-year low relative to the size of the economy as homeowners, cities and companies cut borrowing, undermining rating companies’ downgrading of the nation’s credit rating
Total indebtedness including that of federal and state governments and consumers has fallen to 3.29 times gross domestic product, the least since 2006, from a peak of 3.59 four years ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Private- sector borrowing is down by $4 trillion to $40.2 trillion.
Reduced borrowing means there is less competition for the U.S. Treasury Department as it sells debt to fund spending programs to help the nation recover from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Consumer Confidence Index:
http://www.conference-board.org/...
Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “The Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in September and is back to levels seen earlier this year (71.6 in February 2012). Consumers were more positive in their assessment of current conditions, in particular the job market, and considerably more optimistic about the short-term outlook for business conditions, employment and their financial situation. Despite continuing economic uncertainty, consumers are slightly more optimistic than they have been in several months...”
"Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term outlook in September. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 18.2 percent from 16.7 percent, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen decreased to 13.8 percent from 17.6 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more favorable. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 18.5 percent from 15.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 18.5 percent from 23.7 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes edged up to 16.3 percent from 16.0 percent."
Wrong Track/ Right Track Poll Movement:
National Polls: Race Tightens Among Likely Voters, Obama Approval On Economy Ticks Up
TPM Kyle Leighton October 1, 2012, 11:50 AM 21769
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
New numbers from ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters, and another poll from Politico and George Washington University (GWU) produced the same result. While those numbers suggest the state of the race is relatively unchanged, the view of the economy — the election’s most important issue — has seen a slow but steady movement over the last year.
“Ratings of the economy, while very negative, have grown less intensely so since late August (39 percent say it’s in poor shape, down from 45 percent),” ABC pollster Gary Langer wrote in his analysis. “Obama’s 47 percent approval rating for handling the economy, while still underwater, is numerically its highest in more than two years. And views that the nation is headed seriously off on the wrong track have eased by 9 percentage points to the fewest since January".
AND OF COURSE, THIS:
Unemployment rate falls to 7.8% as economy creates 114,000 jobs
By NBC News staff and wire reports
http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/...
UPDATED 9:50 a.m. EDT: The nation's unemployment rate dropped to the lowest it has been in almost four years in September, giving President Barack Obama a potential upbeat talking point as the presidential race heads into the final innings.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, a decline of 0.3 percentage point and the lowest since January 2009. The government said the economy created 114,000 jobs, about as expected, and generated 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated.
A survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived showed 873,000 job gains last month, the most since June 1983. The drop in unemployment came even as Americans come back into the labor force to resume the hunt for work. The workforce had shrunk in the prior two months. The household survey is volatile, however."
If the political narrative shifts to a real discussion about the economy, there is no way Romney can win. This is a complete reversal from the Spring/ early Summer when the conventional wisdom was that any day spent not discussing the economy was a bad day for Romney and a good day for Obama.