Skip to main content

The polls out today look strong. More on that in a minute. First, a recap of the rapid post-debate slide in Nate Silver's 538 forecast:

Obama's Chances

Oct 4:  87%
Oct 5:  85%
Oct 6:  80%
Oct 7:  78%
Oct 8:  75%
Oct 9:  71%
Oct 10:  68%
Oct 11:  ??

This evening Nate will update the numbers. President Obama's chances will begin a slow climb back. Why?

1. OHIO. In the 538 adjusted poll average, Obama is only +1.8%. But today's NBC/WSJ/Marist poll is Obama +6. A well-regarded poll, this will improve Obama's winning chances in the number one 538 tipping point state. He's currently at 68% chances of winning Ohio. That number should exceed 70 tonight.

2. VIRGINIA. The same pollster has Obama -1 in VA but CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac has Obama +5. Average the two big-name polls and you get Obama +2, a likely improvement on the 538 polling adjusted average which is almost exactly tied at this point.

3. The Rasmussen tracking poll goes from Obama -1 yesterday to +1 today, a two-point improvement in the 3-day rolling average. That means the Wednesday numbers were about 6 points better than the Sunday numbers. The tracking polls are part of the 538 forecast model.

4. After several down days the stock market (so far) is bouncing up today, an economic factor in the 538 model.

5. Good jobs numbers. I believe, though not certain, these are part of Nate's model.

By the way, here's a bit from Nate's latest post on the question of whether Romney is winning (because of some strong national polls):

All of this is a very long-winded way of answering the question in the headline: is Mr. Romney ahead right now? None of the systems that rely on state-level polling say that he’s ahead in the Electoral College right now, although the FiveThirtyEight models perceive a slightly smaller Electoral College gap between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama than some of the other systems.

The difference is that we, and HuffPost Pollster, are looking at the Electoral College and the popular vote in a holistic way. The evidence is ambiguous enough that it’s hard to know for sure, but the fact that Mr. Obama appears to hold a lead in the Electoral College is reason to be suspicious that Mr. Romney leads in the popular vote.

The Gallup tracker will be out soon. Regardless, I see an uptick coming in the 538 model later today.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site