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I know a lot of you are very unhappy about the changes to the commenting system here which have affected the [new] tags on unread comments if you view this site using multiple browsers and/or devices. Unfortunately, I had no advance notice of this change and no input. I only learned about it yesterday, when you did, following
the late-night notice posted by the tech team after the change had already been implemented. What I would suggest, though, is that if you're affected by this change, you can politely add your voice to
this thread at the Daily Kos helpdesk to ask for a fix.
6:29 AM PT: NH-Gov, -01, -02: As he does at the end of every election cycle, UNH's Andy Smith steps up his outfit's polling schedule: They go from conducting surveys only occasionally to fielding them just about weekly. That doesn't make me like UNH (which I think has a lot of quality control problems) much more, but I mention this in case you were concerned we were peddling old data. Anyhow, the new numbers show a weird jump in undecideds in the governor's race (like I said, QC), with Republican Ovide Lamontagne at 39, Democrat Maggie Hassan at 35, and "not sure" at 23. (Note that's with leaners.) A week ago, it was 42 Hassan, 40 Ovide and just 16 undecided—and obviously it doesn't really make sense for that last number to go up as we get closer to election day.
Also in the "doesn't make sense" category are the House numbers. In the 1st CD, in a single week's time, UNH somehow has GOP Rep. Frank Guinta going on an impossible surge, moving from a 38-47 deficit to Carol Shea-Porter into a 45-35 lead! Please explain to me a nineteen point shift in a House race in just eight days, without something like an arrest. Not possible. The 2nd District numbers are a bit more stable—Democrat Annie Kuster leads GOP Rep. Charlie Bass 38-35—but as in the governor's race, the undecideds have shot up (Kuster was on top 42-41 last time). So I'm just gonna have to suggest that you not pay a lot of attention to UNH's whacky results.
6:37 AM PT: WI-07: As Shepard Fairey would screen-print: OBEY! Ex-Rep. Dave Obey, whose retirement two years ago at the age of 71 helped open the way for Republican Sean Duffy's ascent to Congress, stills seems to enjoy playing the game. He's mocking Duffy's refusal to debate Pat Kreitlow—after demanding 20 (!) last cycle—by offering to debate Duffy himself. Obey slyly taunts, "Would he instead agree to debate me, a second-string, stand-in retiree?" Oh yeah, Dave Obey, just a backup role-player coming off the bench. I'd love it, though!
6:47 AM PT: Radio: Early Friday morning, I appeared on "First Shift with Tony Trupiano," a political talk show on Detroit's WDTW. We discussed a variety of races, including competitive contests in the state of Michigan. You can listen to my segment at the link (I start at about two minutes in). And those of you with good memories may recall that Trupiano ran against none other than ex-Rep. Thad McCotter in 2006, something he mentioned on the show because of course we spent some time talking about this year's highly unusual showdown in MI-11.
7:01 AM PT: MI-03: In terms of opponent quality (and I'm talking incumbents only), there may not be anyone luckier than Steve Pestka. GOP Rep. Justin Amash is a freak among freaks, a weirdo dystopian whose own party regulars despise him and who often finds himself on the wrong end of a lot of 434-1 votes in the House. That explains why Pestka, who hasn't gotten much national attention, relied almost entirely on self-funding, and is running in a tough district, might nevertheless have a chance.
And now his new internal paints a potential path to victory for him: GQR's latest survey has him trailing 48-44, improved from 50-42 at the end of August. It's still going to be very hard for Pestka, and importantly, he's had the airwaves to himself so far. Once Amash goes up, things could very well snap back—but the fact that it's mid-October and the incumbent hasn't advertised on TV yet is itself a sign of Amash's weakness.
7:22 AM PT: Oh, seriously, eff me. Did I just write up a pair of House "polls" that had only 200 respondents each? Yes, yes I did. It didn't occur to me that UNH would sink that low, though shame on me for getting fooled even once by them.
7:58 AM PT: WI-Sen (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D): 51 (49), Tommy Thompson (R): 47 (46)
8:30 AM PT: PA-Sen (GSG/Nat'l Research): Bob Smith (D-inc): 48 (53), Tom Smith (R): 38 (34)
9:09 AM PT: NV-03: Following Democrat John Oceguera's poll showing him down just five points, GOP Rep. Joe Heck is saying "nuh-uh" with his new internal from WPA Research that has him leading 48-37. There's a big problem with the poll, though: Romney is beating Obama 51-44, in a district the president won 54-45 in 2008. Now, we know that Obama's doing a lot worse in Nevada this time around. But a 16-point swing? That scarcely seems possible, given that the POTUS still holds small statewide leads. The generic congressional ballot at +6 Republican also seems like a fridge too far, making me feel like this survey is just too optimistic for the incumbent.
9:42 AM PT: MT-Gov: PPP's newest Montana poll shows a bit of a bump for Republican Rick Hill, who is now edging Steve Bullock 43-42 after trailing 44-39 last month. That's not too surprising, though, given how much worse Obama performed in the same poll. (Yeah, Jon Tester held steady but hey, he's Jon Tester.) There are also a bunch of numbers on various downballot races: school superintendent, secretary of state, auditor, and attorney general. That last race (an open seat contest) has gotten a ton of attention (and money) from conservative third-party groups who are desperate to elect Republican Tim Fox. He's leading Democrat Pam Bucy 45-35.
MSU Billings also tested the gubernatorial contest, finding a pretty similar story, with Hill up 40-38. And they found a lot of undecideds in the race for state's open at-large House seat, where Republican Steve Daines is beating Democrat Kim Gillan 36-23. (PPP had Daines up 9, but far fewer unsure voters.) On the presidential front, Romney's leading 49-35.
10:11 AM PT: NY-19: Trying to buttress the poll put out a day earlier by the NRCC (where he was up 47-39), GOP Rep. Chris Gibson is out with a new internal from Public Opinion Strategies that has him leading Democrat Julian Schreibman 50-39. I'm guessing Gibson didn't like numbers showing him under 50% out there, but note that this survey is even more Republican than the NRCC's, as it has Romney leading 46-45. (The NRCC had Romney ahead by 3.)
Meanwhile, AFSCME is going up with a "six-figure" ad buy attacking Gibson for voting to end Medicare and linking him with images of Romney, Ryan, and Michele Bachmann.
10:14 AM PT (David Jarman): AZ-Sen: That was fast; only a day after the Jeff Flake campaign hit Dem nominee Richard Carmona with an ad alleging anger-managemnet issues for Carmona, the Carmona team is out with a testimonial ad that pushes back on Flake's claims. The ad features Kathleen Brennan, Carmona's former SWAT team commander (helpful optics since the Flake ad also threw in some alleged Carmona issues with women as well), who states that Carmona "treats everyone with respect" and calls Flake's attack "despicable."
10:17 AM PT (David Jarman): PA-AG: That Philadelphia Inquirer poll mentioned above also had an Attorney General portion, and it continues to show that this is one of the most surprising races out there this year, with Dem Kathleen Kane outperforming not just Barack Obama but even Bob Casey Jr., in what's not just an open seat but also an office that a Democrat has never won before. She leads David Freed 41-29.
10:19 AM PT (David Jarman): SD-AL: If these numbers are right, I'm surprised the national committees aren't getting involved in this race; here's yet another Nielson Brothers poll of South Dakota's at-large House race showing Dem Matt Varilek within striking distance. He trails GOP frosh Kristi Noem 49-44. Noem led 51-42 in their previous poll, but they've also had the race in the low single digits before that. (Top of the ticket, Mitt Romney leads in South Dakota 54-39.)
10:30 AM PT (David Jarman): MA-Sen: So, about that revolutionary pact in the Massachusetts Senate race that kept outside groups from participating? That pact was limited to television and radio ads, so it turns out that the outside groups are just finding other ways to spend their millions of dollars here. Bloomberg totals up over $1 million in spending from the usual third-party groups, that's been directed toward ground operations, direct mail, and robocalls. League of Conservation Voters has spent $500K on GOTV and mailers, for instance, while Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform has spent $400K on mailers and Crossroads GPS has spent $50K on robocalls. So the flow of outside money hasn't really been stopped... just made slightly less repetitive and annoying.
10:41 AM PT (David Jarman): Illinois: We Ask America (the polling arm of the conservative Illinois Manufacturers' Association) is out with polls of all six competitive House races in Illinois, and although they find Republicans leading in five of them (which would be a wash, if that held through November), they're all races with low-single-digit margins. Interestingly, the race that's seen the worst poll numbers for Democrats in the past (IL-17) is the lone race where they're now winning, while the one that has the biggest Republican margin is the one that has seemed the likeliest Dem pickup (IL-08)... so, between that and their strangely unprofessional writeup (they refer to outgoing Rep. Tim Johnson as "human Q-tip"), I'm not sure how much weight you would want to give these results.
IL-08: Joe Walsh (R) 48, Tammy Duckworth (D) 45
IL-10: Bob Dold (R) 47, Brad Schneider (D) 45
IL-11: Judy Biggert (R) 46, Bill Foster (D) 44
IL-12: Jason Plummer (R) 44, Bill Enyart (D) 42
IL-13: Rodney Davis (R) 44, David Gill (D) 42
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) 46.1, Bobby Schilling (R) 45.8
10:53 AM PT (David Jarman): CA-30: The most heated debate Thursday night wasn't the vice-presidential debate, but the -erman debate in Los Angeles. The most-clicked-on thirty-second excerpt of the debate has Brad Sherman and Howard Berman shoulder to shoulder and raising their voices at each other, with Sherman at one point putting his arm around Berman and asking "Do you want to get into this?" but then backing off, at which point a uniformed officer got on stage with them and gently moved them apart.
Various writeups seem to vary widely on just how big a deal it was, with the LA Times mostly shrugging it off while the Jewish Journal's writeup makes it sound worse for Sherman. Either way, the debate seems like the crowning achievement in a race between two guys with similar records in a safe Dem district that's been a colossal waste of Democratic money and energy when there's an actual House majority at stake.
12:09 PM PT: The Live Digest continues here.