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12:22 PM PT: PPP (for LCV): Murphy 48 (48), McMahon 44 (42); Obama 53-44 (54-41).
12:25 PM PT: NH-Gov (Rasmussen): Maggie Hassan (D): 46 (48), Ovide Lamontagne (R): 48 (46)
12:31 PM PT: MT-AL: Writing in the Missoula Independent, reporter Matthew Frank has an in-depth profile of a candidate a lot of folks don't know much about, running in a race that's largely flown under the radar: Democratic state Sen. Kim Gillan, who is seeking Montana's open at-large House seat. Political history fans probably know that the first woman elected to Congress was Jeannette Rankin—in Montana—all the way back in 1916. Since Rankin, no other woman has served Montana in D.C., but Gillan is hoping to be the next.
12:47 PM PT: FL-22: One poll that came out on Wednesday of Florida's 22nd Congressional District had Democrat Lois Frankel up 10, another just 3. On Thursday, a poll for Sunshine State News from Voter Survey Service—aka Republican-affiliated pollster Susquehanna—managed to find the race tied at 47 apiece. But the badly-formatted crosstabs are more revealing: They put Obama up just 51-48 over Mitt Romney, an almost impossible-to-believe figure in a district that went 57-43 in 2008.
1:15 PM PT: NY-01: I'd have a much easier time believing Randy Altschuler's poll numbers if his presidential toplines weren't so whack. So yeah, he's leading Dem Rep. Tim Bishop in this poll from McLaughlin & Associates by a 48-43 spread, but Mitt Romney's beating Barack Obama 54-42? How is that even possible? Sure, Obama's fortunes have headed south lately, but do you really think a district he won by 3 points in 2008 has now sailed 12 points against him? That would be an epic collapse. The House head-to-heads also wildly contradict Siena's independent poll from a month ago, which were right in line with Bishop's own numbers (52-39 for the Democrat).
Now, there was a sketchy poll for a pro-Altschuler super PAC the other day that also had him ahead (49-46), so I'd like to see some fresh polling from a more reliable source. But I'm not going to get worked up about this one.
2:19 PM PT: FL-10: One advantage "non-partisan" analysts have over folks like us is that they get to see all kinds of private internal polling no one ever wants to share with a bunch of dirty hippies. Sometimes they adjust race ratings based on this data, which in turn make us strivers scratch our heads because, well, why? But on other occasions, they share some scraps from the table. Of course, that means relying on someone else's interpretation of something you'll never get to look at yourself, so skepticism is always in order.
But anyhow, I say all this as a preface to a line in Stuart Rothenberg's latest column, in which he says of Florida's 10th Congressional District that "there are now so many GOP surveys showing Rep. Daniel Webster in pretty good shape" that he doesn't really think an upset by Democrat Val Demings is possible. I'd like to know why none of these polls have seen the light of day, though, since they'd probably quash Dem hopes if the numbers are as Rothenberg describes. Be that as it may, though, this certainly isn't very optimistic news for Team Blue.
2:33 PM PT: MD Ballot, MN Ballot: Two new polls in two states where gay marriage measures are on the ballot next month both bring good news for supporters of marriage equality. In Maryland, a new Washington Post poll finds voters planning to uphold the state's new law allowing same-sex couples to marry by a 52-43 margin. Meanwhile, in Minnesota, support for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is declining. Voters now favor it by just a 47-46 margin, down from 50-43 last month.
2:41 PM PT: Reshuffling Roundup:
CA-03: It sounds like the DCCC is close to declaring victory here: They're cancelling a $315K ad reservation that had been made on behalf of Rep. John Garamendi, and it sounds like it's the only airtime they'd booked. A while back, a string of unanswered polls showed Garamendi with comfortable leads over Republican Kim Vann, prompting us to move the race to Likely R. Evidently, the GOP just hasn't been able to get any traction here since.
PA-12: While last week's DCCC cancellations in the Pittsburgh media market reflected, at the time, a loss of any hope that Larry Maggi might stage an upset in PA-18, the move left Democrats with less airtime reserved than Republicans in the adjacent (and still hotly competitive) PA-12. PoliticsPA, relying on a Roll Call report we cited in the previous Digest, observes that the D-Trip's new $210K reservation in the district's other major market, Johnstown, has brought Dems back into near-parity.
RI-01: Was Dem Rep. David Cicilline's decision to apologize months ago for his failure to be forthright about the shape of Providence's finances when he was mayor going to turn out to be the wisest move of the cycle for incumbents dogged by the "embattled" label? It just might. Republican Brendan Doherty has reportedly cut his ad buys for the stretch run from $326K to $202K, not a move made out of strength. Of course, Cicilline's also aided by running a deep blue district that actually got made even bluer in redistricting, and that's an enormously important factor, if not the most important.
TN-04: Well whaddya know. The DCCC must clearly sense a late-breaking opportunity, because they've gone ahead and added state Sen. Eric Stewart to their Red to Blue list—and I'm not talking "Emerging Races," I'm talking full-blown R2B. Could a television buy targeting GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais be next? Obviously the ad writes itself.
4:04 PM PT: NE-Sen: Hmm. Democrat Bob Kerrey is out with one of those "not dead yet" internal polls, showing Republican Deb Fischer beating him by "only" a 50-45, according to Hickman Analytics. There's been very little polling of Nebraska in general—indeed, the only recent survey came a month ago from Wiese Research for the Omaha World-Herald, finding Fischer ahead 56-40. The one thing that makes Kerrey's poll believable is that he says Romney is up 14 points (no exact toplines provided), which is the same presidential margin Wiese saw as well (53-39). I'm still finding it hard to imagine that Kerrey has a path to victory—after all, Fischer's at 50 and he's down five in his own poll. But I'll be extremely curious to see how the GOP responds.
4:12 PM PT: MO-Sen: Buttressing a Claire McCaskill internal from the other day that had her up 14, the DSCC's pushing an internal from Harstad Research that also has her beating Republican Todd Akin, 47-35. In this case, Harstad included Libertarian candidate Jonathan Dine, who takes a high—but perhaps plausible—8 percent. (As Jeff Smith argued, Dine seems like a plausible outlet for right-leaning voters who can't stomach the thought of casting a ballot for Akin.) In a two-way contest, the incumbent still leads big, 50-40. No presidential numbers are included.
4:21 PM PT: AZ-Sen: The NRSC is diving even deeper into Arizona with another $570K to help Jeff Flake stave off Democrat Richard Carmona. I really hope they keep using this voiceover artists for other ads, because he sounds over-the-top to the point of insincerity. And the topic... well, conservatives love to obsess over earmarks, but does the GOP really have polling telling them this is a winning issue with normal voters? Or are they just forced to go with this issue because Flake's made it a signature of his? (Though even he's been proven a phony on earmarks, too.)
4:22 PM PT (David Jarman): A second poll of the Washington gubernatorial race -- from the University of Washington on behalf of KCTS, who were the pollsters who came the closest on 2010's WA-Sen race -- shows a slightly smaller margin (although a more normal-looking presidential topline). They find Jay Inslee leading Rob McKenna 48-45. (McKenna led their previous poll 44-38, but that poll was a full year ago.) They also find Barack Obama leading 52-41 and Maria Cantwell crushing the Senate race over Michael Baumgartner 58-35. In addition, the state's pro-same-sex marriage referendum is winning 56-36, while marijuana legalization is also on track to win 51-40.
4:30 PM PT: MO-Sen: Todd Akin (R): $1.6 mil raised, $553K cash-on-hand
4:38 PM PT: Fundraising: Want to know which challengers outraised incumbents in competitive races in the third quarter? And which (a much smaller group) actually has more cash-on-hand? Jeffmd's put together some charts detailing exactly who falls into this elite club.
4:42 PM PT: House: In case you missed it, Daily Kos Elections Featured Writer dreaminonempty has put together a model based on the previous 40 House elections that shows that Democrats should increase the number of seats they win by about four for every one-point increase in the popular House vote margin. The model can also predict the number of seats Democrats would win this year if it were a typical year; redistricting gives us a disadvantage that adjusts this prediction downward. Click through for dreamin's complete discussion of this fascinating model.