Skip to main content

This will be a short diary, but I think it's important. Charlie Cook is basically the definition of "pundititis", but he's privy to what each campaign's internal polls are showing, which are much more accurate than the public polls that are saturated with pro-GOP outliers by pollsters with an agenda. Here is his new article.

The important column to look at is the "D/R Pollster Characterization" under the Battleground states polling.

North Carolina: Romney +1 or Romney +2
RCP Average: Romney +5.6 (!!!)

Florida: Romney +2 - Obama +1
RCP Average: Romney +2.4

Virginia: Even to Romney +2
RCP Average: Tie

Colorado: Obama +1 to Obama +5
RCP Average: Romney +0.2 (!!!)

Iowa: Romney +1 - Obama +7 (kind of a ridiculous spread here)
RCP Average: Obama +2.4

New Hampshire: Obama +2 to Obama +5
RCP Average: Romney +1 (!!!)

Nevada: Obama +3 to Obama +7
RCP Average: Obama +3

Wisconsin: Obama +3 to Obama +7
RCP Average: Obama +2.8

Ohio: Obama +4 to Obama +7 (!!!)
RCP Average: Obama +2.4 (!!!)

Michigan: Obama +7 to Obama +8
RCP Average: Obama +5 (!!!)

Pennsylvania: Obama +7 to Obama +9
RCP Average: Obama +5 (!!!)

As you can see, RCP, which includes the GOP shill pollsters, is drastically understating Obama's performance in NC, CO, NH, OH, MI, and PA. We have 265 "safe" EVs according to this, and will only need to pick off one of Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado, all of which we're ahead in, to win.

Don't let the GOP pollsters and crock of shit Gallup fool you. We're still in control here and both campaigns know it.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

GainesT1958, fladem, Mimikatz, DeminNewJ, pundit, Yosef 52, teacherken, nanorich, tommurphy, Shockwave, Sherri in TX, ChicDemago, hyperstation, eeff, Woody, exNYinTX, Paulie200, dpc, jackspace, cskendrick, whenwego, ellefarr, badlands, CocoaLove, revsue, jdmorg, ninothemindboggler, psnyder, annan, LordMike, johanus, chrismorgan, tombstone, FlyingToaster, econlibVA, ybruti, tomjones, Emmy, sebastianguy99, davidincleveland, Bluesee, Simian, Ckntfld, wmc418, el dorado gal, Gary Norton, reflectionsv37, Beetwasher, DemNoir, Sun Tzu, markdd, jane123, distraught, kkjohnson, reddbierd, MadGeorgiaDem, cybersaur, MeMeMeMeMe, profundo, dopper0189, HoundDog, fromer, Wary, gpoutney, Joe Cooper, MarciaJ720, middleagedhousewife, llbear, Clive all hat no horse Rodeo, shaharazade, Leap Year, Aaa T Tudeattack, anna shane, Sapere aude, Donkey Underpants, joedemocrat, newpioneer, US Blues, millwood, Librarianmom, Wreck Smurfy, christianlsv, uciguy30, Timmethy, South Park Democrat, vet, Empower Ink, revm3up, HappyinNM, MikePhoenix, ScottyUrb, Cordwainer, OleHippieChick, Involuntary Exile, royce, smartdemmg, steve2012, Gemina13, True Independent, oldliberal, B o o, GoogleBonhoeffer, carolyn urban, bobatkinson, ronnied, fearisthemindkiller, janmtairy, susanWAstate, penultimate galactic master, elziax, MKSinSA, oxfdblue, lastman, COwoman, mdmslle, Abelian, haremoor, orangeuglad, Larsstephens, BB Jam Fan, eXtina, brunoboy, gramofsam1, Susan Grigsby, piers, J Bizzle, BenderRodriguez, dustb, Carlo408, nirbama, ericlewis0, bosshogg, wwjjd, NMMatt, Mister Met, Onomastic, Jasel, Mico0109, EcosseNJ, Wolf Of Aquarius, ardyess, Zutroy, natedogg265, FightingRegistrar, thomask, looking and listening, cyb1851, BarackStarObama, VTCC73, teknohed, rscopes, jack23, Auriandra, Nashville fan, Christian Democrat, AnnetteK, Nena20409, joelgp, daysey, Catskill Julie, Bensonola, a2nite, Arahahex, pittie70, George3, cfulton, Steve Canella, Shawn Russell, poopdogcomedy, LiberalSage, broths, weck, Smoh, IndyinDelaware, MRDFS, MBishop1, PennBrian, Dutch Doctor, deb4Obama, Rumor, Brian1066, KHKS, TheChocolateChips, Political TroubleMaker

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site