We have a bunch of new national and swing state polls today as we get ready for the third debate (be sure to check out my debate preview if you haven't already). The numbers are below, followed by my analysis.
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 51%, Romney 42% -- Obama +3% since 3 weeks ago (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)
* OHIO: Obama 47%, Romney 47% -- No previous poll (Suffolk)
* IOWA: Obama 49%, Romney 48% -- Obama +2% since 1 week ago (Public Policy)
* IOWA: Obama 48%, Romney 48% -- Romney +2% since 2 weeks ago (Rasmussen)
* COLORADO: Romney 50%, Obama 46% -- Romney +5% since 2 weeks ago (Rasmussen)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 46% -- Romney +1% since 5 weeks ago (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 48% -- Romney +2% since 1 week ago (ABC/Washington Post LV)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 43% -- Obama +1% since 2 weeks ago (ABC/Washington Post RV)
* NATIONAL: Romney 48%, Obama 45% -- Romney +6% since 1 month ago (Monmouth/SurveyUSA)
Obama got a strong number in the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Ohio poll showing him up 5%, as well as a very strong New Hamsphire number from UNH showing him up 9%. The rest of today's state polls mostly favor Romney, as he got strong numbers in Colorado and Iowa, as well as a good Ohio poll from Suffolk showing a tied race. The polls continue to be all over the place, so I'd urge everyone to follow the averages. Obama still has an average lead in Ohio of around 2%, and an average lead in Iowa around 3%. The New Hampshire poll is key because it single-handidly swung the New Hampshire average from Romney +1.0% to Obama +1.0%.
The national numbers also continue to show a close race. I've been stressing that it is better to go by what the high-quality, live-interview pollsters say as oppose to the daily tracking polls, and today we have two new national polls from high-quality pollsters -- both showing Obama with slight leads. The ABC/Washington Post poll is particularly interesting as it shows a giant gap between their registered voter model, which has Obama up 7%, and their likely voter model, which has Obama up just 1%. These 5%+ gaps we continue to see in many polls between the RV and LV models is one of the major question marks going into election day. Historically, the gap is around 2% in the Republican's favor, not the 5%+ we are seeing on a fairly regular basis from polls this year.
These polls, taken as a whole, leave the race in the same place it has been for the past few days. Obama is ahead in Ohio and has the advantageous position in the electoral college. The national race remains very close, but given what we are seeing in the state numbers, Obama probably has a very slight lead, perhaps less than 1%. The big variable remains turnout. Which side is able to turnout their supporters in bigger numbers will probably win.
Tonight's debate could give one of the two candidates a final bit of momentum heading into the final two weeks, but I'm skeptical that we'll see much of a bounce for either candidate from tonight. In my post earlier today comparing today's polling averages to where we sat on October 16th (the day of the last debate), I outlined what has changed in a week -- almost nothing. Obama has gained very slightly nationally (around 0.2%) and has gotten a bit of a boost in Nevada (1.4%). All other swing states have seen changes to Obama or Romney below 1.0%. Obama was widely considering the victor of the second debate, so the fact that he did not get a bounce raises the question of whether tonight's debate will move the numbers much at all.
I'll be tweeting my live debate thoughts tonight during the debate so be sure to follow me on Twitter.