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12:11 PM PT: CT-Sen (Hamilton for DSCC): Chris Murphy (D): 46, Linda McMahon (R): 40, Paul Passarelli (L): 3. The memo says that McMahon is getting 15% of Democratic voters—but that Murphy is getting the same share among Republicans. And McMahon needs to do much better than a wash to win.
12:20 PM PT: FL-22 (Anzalone for Frankel): Lois Frankel (D): 47, Adam Hasner (R): 37; Obama 50-43. Those presidential numbers are definitely weaker for Obama than his 57-43 score in 2008 (and if accurate, illustrate his general Florida fade). But that's a good sign for Frankel, if she's up 10 despite a weaker top of the ticket. Her memo also includes some notes on the media picture, saying that Hasner has "abandoned West Palm Beach broadcast television" and is "limited to cable," while Frankel is still up on the broadcast airwaves.
12:28 PM PT: NH-Gov (UNH): Maggie Hassan (D): 43 (35), Ovide Lamontagne (R): 35 (39). UNH is so weird.
12:53 PM PT: PA-Sen: File this under "things I don't like one bit": The Dem-aligned Majority PAC has just reserved $515K in airtime in the Pittsburgh market for the last week before election day, in an effort to help Dem Sen. Bob Casey. As we've mentioned several times recently, some polling has shown free-spending Republican businessman Tom Smith closing on Casey, though Democratic operatives seem dismissive, and a new Casey internal had him up 52-39. So we're left with the classic dilemma: Either the Casey camp's been blustering, or this is merely an insurance policy. But even if it's the latter, it's disappointing to see money get spent on a race that Team Blue really ought to have in the bag.
1:18 PM PT: I do have to wonder, though, if this new IL-13 poll is something of an effort to change the conversation from Gill's rocky last week on the campaign trail. He struggled in an attempt to explain how recent coordinated expenditures with the DCCC didn't violate his pledge not to "take a penny from Wall Street bankers or big corporations" and reportedly hung up on reporters in the middle of a conference call on the topic. Gill's also apparently reluctant to add any more events to the debate schedule, though two more are still upcoming (one this week and one next). Charitably, this poll (taken after these issues started to emerge) might be evidence that voters aren't concerned about this kind of stuff.
1:38 PM PT: ME-Sen: Just a little FYI: On Thursday night at midnight, all federal campaigns have to file yet another FEC report, called a "pre-general" report, detailing all fundraising activities from Oct. 1 through Oct. 17. (As per usual, we'll bring you a chart of all such numbers for every competitive House race in the nation.) And from Oct. 18 forward, all campaigns have also had to continually file so-called "48-hour notices" detailing any contributions of $1,000 or more (within, as you'd guess, 48 hours of receipt of the donation). You can search for such notices here. Anyhow, I mention all this under the heading of ME-Sen because Republican Charlie Summers became the first to leak his pre-general numbers, with $325K raised in the first two-plus weeks of October.
1:51 PM PT: And while we're on the race, here's another remarkable sign that conservatives are getting desperate in North Dakota:
State Sen. Tim Mathern of Fargo is taking the Catholic Church to task over a letter to priests he says is overly political.
Mathern released a draft of the letter, apparently written by Bismarck Bishop David Kagan and set to be read during masses throughout the state this weekend, on Tuesday.
The draft discusses issues like abortion and gay marriage as unacceptable to Catholic teachings, and urges churchgoers to vote for candidates who uphold Catholic values.
The letter does not name any candidates, but Mathern says it stakes out partisan ground and clearly refers to certain individuals. He said one line—"Please do not vote for the candidate who is most likable"—echoes a line used in an advertisement against U.S. Senate candidate Heidi Heitkamp.
Indeed, that framing is hardly coded. The NRSC
ran one ad in which the narrator explicitly intoned: "Heidi Heitkamp: You might like
her, but on the issues she's wrong for North Dakota."
Another spot started with a woman claiming, "I like Heidi. I just don't like her supporting President Obama." How grotesque to see supposedly non-political religious institutions which depend on their tax-exempt status to so nakedly insert themselves into the electoral process this way.
2:01 PM PT: IN-Sen: Democrats continue to believe in Joe Donnelly, with big money coming his way in the penultimate week of the campaign. According to Politico, Majority PAC is spending $1.1 million in Indiana, while the DSCC is chipping in another $525K, both for the final week of October.
2:14 PM PT: WI-Sen: Tommy Thompson's gone hardcore negative in his latest ad, attacking Democrat Tammy Baldwin because she "had the opportunity to vote to honor the victims of 9/11—and she voted against it." The spot is accompanied by images of the Twin Towers, and some of the rhetoric will make you feel like we're back in 2001 as well: One Navy vet even says, "It's a very dangerous path Tammy's leading us on." Baldwin's responding by saying she's voted to honor 9/11 victims on nine other occasions, but that she opposed this particular non-binding resolution because "it included divisive language, including an endorsement of the Patriot Act and immigration bills that Baldwin believes are punitive." All that said, this is not the kind of TV ad you run in the closing weeks of the campaign if you're feeling good about your chances.
2:25 PM PT: HMP: The House Majority PAC is out with seven new ads, five targeting GOP incumbents and two going after Republican challengers to Dem congressmen. The spots mark HMP's first entry into five of these races, the most notable of which is CA-36, where their ad is running as part of a "previously announced $285,000 buy." That suggests, at least, a possible vote of confidence in Democrat Raul Ruiz, in the wake of the Leonard Peltier ugliness.
2:27 PM PT: MO-Sen: Our thoughts go out to Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill, who has cancelled all campaign events for the rest of the week to spend time with her critically ill 84-year-old mother, who is in intensive care.
2:36 PM PT: MI-11: This is deeply unexpected: The American Medical Association is spending $228K to produce and run TV ads on behalf of Democrat Syed Taj, making them the first outside organization to get involved in this open-seat race on his behalf. (They've also paid $22K to GQR for a poll; would love to get my hands on that.) The AMA, though, is one of those third-party groups with motives and goals that would strike most partisans as weird. Just check out who else is on their new list of expenditures: NV-03 GOP Rep. Joe Heck, NY-18 GOP Rep. Nan Hayworth, and CA-07 Dem challenger Ami Bera. A strange mix, but there's one thread that links them all: each is a physician. I guess the AMA just wants as many doctors in Congress as possible. (So in that case, how about a little love for Rich Carmona?)
2:45 PM PT: CA-31, IL-11: The Realtors are going in big for GOP Reps. Gary Miller and Judy Biggert, spending another $400K on TV ads for Miller (on top of the $480K they've already thrown down), and $500K on Biggert (the first time they're backing her on the airwaves). In Miller's case, the Realtors have previously shelled out a fortune on mailers as well, to help him against his same-party challenge from state Sen. Bob Dutton. Does Miller really need that much help? Or is it just the Realtors being weird?
2:53 PM PT: And speaking of, the D-Trip's ad is finally available online. Unlike most generic negative spots (which attack some random Republican for hating on Medicare), this one is very specific about Maggie Brooks, saying that she "named a campaign contributor as airport director. He spent our tax dollars on strippers and cigars." More: "Brooks' second airport director, arrested... for driving drunk in a county vehicle." I hope it's an effective hit, but it's unfortunate that Slaughter's in a position where national Dems have to worry about her... particularly when they're touting polls that have her up 10.
2:59 PM PT: Crossroads: Karl Rove's evil twin children, American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, are launching a new $8 million ad blitz in eight Senate races: IN, ME, MT, ND, NV, OH, VA & WI. Click through for links to and descriptions of all the ads.