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Jimmy Cliff -- "The Harder They Come"

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections

    by James L on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:30:05 PM PDT

  •  Massachusetts Senate and Indiana Senate (3+ / 0-)

    I live in Massachusetts and really want Liz Warren as my Senator and I am interested in seeing if Indiana chooses sanity with Joe Donnelly.

  •  Perlmutter Coors (4+ / 0-)

    Coffman miklosi
    Tipton Pace
    I haven't seen a recent poll on any of these

  •  How about Powell v Cantor? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    For Dean in Dixie

    And Ryan v Zerban.

  •  I care very much about my local state rep (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    the legislature is a mess in Missouri and my former (and hopefully, again) representative is a no-nonsense rather gruff but firm practical woman who has been both a nurse and an educator.  I am hoping that she wins reelection.  They are running nasty anti-Rebecca advertisements.  It is cheap here to run TV spots.  I am sure it is outside money.  

  •  Gas prices falling fast? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I haven't seen a marked drop here in CT, but others are reporting very large decreases:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    I've been following the AAA charts, but this one makes it seem like a steeper fall nationally than I thought. Down about 24 cents in just two weeks:

    http://gasbuddy.com/...

    AAA shows 3.58 now, down 23 cents from 3.81 a month ago. That's actually not inconsistent with the link above. It's just that the presentation isn't as dramatic:

    http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/...

  •  MN-Ballot (10+ / 0-)

    Outspoken Vikings punter Chris Kluwe cuts a radio ad for the Vote No (the good) side.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, I finally got a chance to do something my parents have done for years- vote against Tommy Thompson!!!! Tammy Baldwin for US Senate!!!!!

    by WisJohn on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:49:03 PM PDT

  •  PA Congress 11th District & Senate PA-15 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Things are heating up...
    http://youtu.be/...

  •  In California-- Propositions 30, 34, 37 and 32 (5+ / 0-)

    30-- would stop the continual devastating cuts of our primary and higher education system.

    34-- death penalty initiative.

    37-- required labelling of genetically modified foods

    It is also a must to defeat proposition 32 in California.  No phony reform that actually takes political power of the unions and give it all to corporations.

  •  You ready to give us another one of these (7+ / 0-)

    every couple of hours James? ;)

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:02:03 PM PDT

  •  "Yes We Can" for 2012? (7+ / 0-)

    New Obama song/video:

  •  Does packing minorities into a few districts (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, KingofSpades, andgarden, abgin, jncca

    really serve their communities?  What would be the most beneficial way to draw districts to maximize the voting power of traditionally disenfranchised/dis-empowered communities?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:14:32 PM PDT

    •  I see that I haven't recommended (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      The Paradox of Representation recently. ;)

      You should read it!

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:40:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm talking a bit beyond that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        andgarden, ArkDem14

        to also extend to the chances that they can elect one of their own to higher office using their districts as a base.  If they're elected to a district that is say 51% African American, 90% Obama, in a state that went for Obama by say 57%, do they have a good chance at being elected to the senate or as governor?  What if they won election to a district that was 35% African American, and only 65% Obama?  Would the coalition-building necessary in that be more helpful to minority communities gaining more real power to affect policy?

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:48:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Varies by ethnicity (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, WisJohn

      In most areas, a 45% Black district will offer African-Americans their choice of representative both in the primary and general (with other minorities ensuring white voters cannot dominate the election).  Having 60% Black districts is packing at its worst, and no state should be allowed to get away with that.  (Note, this is just for congressional seats, some state legislatures will unavoidably have seats up to like 95% Black).

      Hispanic districts do require a higher percentage, but even still some of the South Texas seats could do with a bit of dilution (giving Hispanics their choice in another seat).

      Basically, I endorse the fundamental idea of what the VRA requires when it comes to district-drawing (not splitting up the power of minorities like it used to be in the South).  I just think they've gone overboard and it's basically packing now.  But that is more the fault of GOP gerrymanders, not the VRA itself.

      •  yeah, in my current DRA project (0+ / 0-)

        with districts of only 50k, I have a few unavoidable 80+% African American districts, surrounded by bacon-mandered 50-55% AA districts.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:27:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  and (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        in the Deep South, I don't doubt that districts over 50% African American are absolutely necessary to represent their interests.  This question of mine is mostly about places outside the Deep South.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:33:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What about a district like TN-09 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        where a second black district simply cannot be drawn, nor even a real black influence district? I'd think you could make a good COI-based argument for keeping Memphis whole in a heavily black district rather than splitting it.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:20:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The VRA is the biggest reason we have no (0+ / 0-)

      minority Senators/Governors who were previously in Congress and ran for their office (Menendez was appointed).  Outside of Hawaii, of course. Safe seats mean no minority candidates have to learn to appeal to Whites, who are a plurality in nearly every state, often an overwhelming majority.  Safe seats also mean that they never have to worry about re-election, so they have less incentive to jump to higher office.  I wrote my senior thesis in HS about this, but there have been a decent number (mid-single digits) of Hispanic/Black Senators/Governors.  If I remember correctly, none were in the House first, despite a large percentage of Senators and decent number of Governors coming from the House.  The VRA serves to pack minorities, and people who support the VRA are placing proportional representation by race above the interests of the Democratic Party, which would be much stronger without the VRA.  Among other reasons, this is why I think the VRA is wrong, for Democrats and for minorities both.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:26:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  to clarify, that's VRA Section 5 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        not the entire law.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:30:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think though some of your points are correct (0+ / 0-)
        people who support the VRA are placing proportional representation by race above the interests of the Democratic Party, which would be much stronger without the VRA.  Among other reasons, this is why I think the VRA is wrong, for Democrats and for minorities both.
        this is misguided.  Business as usual is probably wrong, though.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:31:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think it's misguided (0+ / 0-)

          Many in the party, especially in the progressive wing, want a House of Representatives that is reflective of America in terms of gender, race, etc.  I think it's a noble goal.  But I'd rather have 250 White Protestant Straight Male Progressives than 249 Diverse Progressives.  And the VRA means that the party will be more diverse, yet have fewer members.  Look at the VRA districts:

          CA, NJ, AZ, NY: Commissions or Court
          NM: No Change
          TX: We would lose 2 seats, probably
          GA, OH, PA, MO, AL, MS, SC, NC, VA, FL, LA, TN, MI: They serve as packs for Democrats.  No change or minus 1 at most.
          IL: We could've taken out one more Republican.  

          In 2010, it didn't make much difference.  But if we controlled the legislatures of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York, and could unpack those minorities, we could've taken out:

          Every IL Republican we were targeting this time around, instead of many being tossups
          Dan Webster
          Pat Meehan
          Mike Fitzpatrick
          Steve LaTourette
          Nan Hayworth
          Michael Grimm
          Thad McCotter

          And I may be forgetting states

          That more than makes up for our loss in Texas.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:39:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  and it would undoubtedly reduce the number (0+ / 0-)

            of Black Representatives.  But to me, that's a sacrifice worth making to have a better chance at controlling the House.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:41:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You would understand (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, askew, tietack, MichaelNY, bythesea

              if Black voters may disagree on the merits of that sacrifice.

              They are a large backbone of the Democratic Party.  I think they've earned their choice of representation in districts where it can be easily drawn as such, considering how they were damn near shut out of office for 100 years following the 14th Amendment which supposedly made them full and equal citizens.

              This is not even talking about the merits of the VRA.  This is just a question of fairness to the most loyal group within the Democratic Party, and how it looks to have a group of mostly white Dems deciding how best to divvy up African-Americans to elect more white Dems.

              •  Still doesn't excuse folks (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, bythesea, WisJohn

                like Corrine Brown who actively worked against members of her own party and with Republican officials to ensure her gerrymander was maintained, and her district kept more strongly minority and Democratic than it needed to be.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:16:43 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  tietack, MichaelNY

                  there is definitely a middle ground here.

                  •  Corrine Brown is just too abrasive (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    in general. I understand where she is coming from, but she has a history of making boneheaded, racially charged comments and being confrontational, not to mention a long sordid history of ethics citations and complaints.

                    Between her and Alcee Hastings, black Florida Democrats don't have very good congressional representation.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:09:25 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Martin Frost, TX gerrymander in '91 (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades, CF of Aus

                    I gather kept a 17-15 D TX delegation, while meeting all VRA requirements.

                    I've never looked at the details, but have been told that it was sheer genius, rivaling what Phil Burton did in CA in '91.

                    I hope; therefore, I can live.

                    by tietack on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:32:32 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Phil Burton organized the '81 gerrymander. (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tietack, DCal, WisJohn

                      '91 had court drawn maps because of Pete Wilson.

                      I just looked it up briefly.  The Burton-mander gave Democrats 6 more seats and cost Republicans four seats.  And best of all, it last the whole decade without Democrats losing a single seat.

                      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                      by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:37:07 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  This sounds like a good diary topic... (0+ / 0-)

                      Texas 1991 vs California 1981 !

                      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

                      by CF of Aus on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 03:32:47 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think white people in general, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, MichaelNY

            though with some exceptions, can adequately represent minority communities.  Same with men representing women, and straights representing gays, etc.  But to me that's not pertinent to the discussion I want to have.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:43:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I also forgot MD (0+ / 0-)

            we gerrymandered the state just fine while keeping 2 VRA districts, so no real effect there.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:43:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  We all know that (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY, sawolf

            nobody--not even Democratic trifectas--makes Democratic seat maximization their sole priority in redistricting.  If Democrats controlled NY and wanted to, I'm pretty sure there's a VRA-compliant map that could take out Grimm and Hayworth.  I suspect there are VRA-compliant maps targeting the PA suburbs (unpacking Schwartz?).  But there are 8-0 maps that could have been drawn in Maryland.  

            What would happen without the VRA?  No idea.  But an analysis that assumes it's the only thing keeping Democrats from seat-maximizing utopia is incomplete.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:35:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I can't help but disagree (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, MichaelNY, askew

            With this:

            But I'd rather have 250 White Protestant Straight Male Progressives than 249 Diverse Progressives.
            Especially if all you're drawing the line at is 1 extra representative, I would sacrifice one seat for a sufficiently diverse caucus.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 08:59:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Also (0+ / 0-)

            has anyone tried drawing a VRA-less Republican gerrymander of Texas?

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 10:41:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  If the VRA was abolished (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the GOP would draw the exact same districts in the South.  We can draw all the fantasy non-VRA gerrymanders we want, with Dems getting half the seats even in the Deep South, but at the end of the day the GOP draws those maps.

        As for areas that we do control, we'd also draw the exact same districts.  It's not the VRA that made us draw the seats we did in Maryland and Illinois.  It's the fact that diluting the Chicago, PG County, and Baltimore seats down to a politically useful percentage of black voters is fundamentally disrespectful to a very large and loyal constituency of the Democratic Party.  Yeah, it would be nice if there was more Democrats in Congress, and you can make the very persuasive argument that having a Dem Speaker would be in the best interests of minority voters (no disagreement there). But if that requires us reducing the number of seats where minorities have their choice of representation, which will definitely reduce the number of actual minorities in Congress, count me out.

        Also, I think it's a huge leap to think that abolishing the VRA will actually lead to more minority Governors and Senators.  The reason we have so few minority representatives as it is, is because white people vote against them.

        •  Well, how do you explain (0+ / 0-)

          the fact that there are 2 Republican minority Governors and 0 Democratic ones?  Or two Republican minority Senators (soon) and only 1 Democratic one? (outside of Hawaii)

          Are Democrats less willing to vote for minorities than Republicans?
          Unless you believe that, something else is going on.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:51:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  ugh 1 Democratic minority (0+ / 0-)

            Deval Patrick, I apologize for forgetting him.  But they still outnumber us on both fronts.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:52:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Unusual circumstances. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, Skaje, ArkDem14

            In SC, there was a clown car primary and the other Republican opponent in the runoff wasn't very classy.  In Nevada, Jim Gibbons was very unpopular and was going to lose the primary against most anyone and the RGA begged Sandoval to run.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:58:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  The way I explain that (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, ArkDem14, Xenocrypt

            is 2010.  Wave election brought in a lot of Republicans, and very few Democrats.  They also got two Black representatives and a Mexican-American representative again.  In regards to the latter (Rep. Canseco), they actually had one previously in that seat (Henry Bonilla) until he was washed out in the 2006 wave.  The wave elections distort the party standings among minorities.

            In any case, there's so very few statewide elected minorities as it is that I don't want to make assertions based off of sample sizes of 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat.  We all remember how the GOP tried to play up how "inclusive" they were based off of their few notable minorities, that is nothing new.  The House is larger and provides a better overall sample.  And from that, it's clear that Democrats are much more willing to vote for minorities than the (with a few exceptions) very white Republican caucus.

          •  I don't know what it does to your argument (0+ / 0-)

            but Salem, OR has had two recent African American state legislators, despite having no significant population of African Americans.  The current one is Jackie Winters, a Republican.  If it weren't for her age she could pretty easily move into higher office, as she's moderate and well respected across the aisle.  The previous one was Democrat Jim Hill, who then went on to be elected state treasurer, but lost two primaries for governor in 2002 and 2006, though he came fairly close.

            Since they didn't come from VRA districts that could bolster your argument.  However, they also do not represent significant African American communities, and I'm not concerned here about individual minority politicians but about representing minority communities.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:49:59 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  3 Republican minority governors (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, CF of Aus

            I'm not sure which one you're forgetting, but there's Nikki Haley, Brian Sandoval and Susana Martinez.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:43:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Also, we could just dilute the districts down (0+ / 0-)

          to 40% Black instead of 55%.  Black voters would still be a majority in the district, particularly if they take in Republican suburbs without tons of White Democrats.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:51:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Outside of the Deep South I don't think that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt

            would be a bad idea, nor do I think it would violate the spirit of the VRA.  IMHO keeping the VRA while altering it's application in some areas is the solution.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:02:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I am fine with some sub-50% dilution in safe seats (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            as long as the minority voters retain a very strong say in their choice of representative.  If we are talking about total dilution however (like splitting up Maryland such that every seat is only 30% Black), I think we're running into some problems.

        •  Well, the Southern states might... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          try to split the VRA districts into oblivion. But yes, it wouldn't change anything in the states we control, because ultimately it's not the VRA that forces those districts, it's the Black and Latino Caucuses of the state legislatures.

    •  What about non-partisan redistricting? (0+ / 0-)

      It might vary greatly from state to state, but you have to wonder if the best way to get non-whites to have more influence is to disperse them as if they were white but voted just as strongly Democratic. Is it possible to do that in areas that are strongly Democratic in the urban core but are purple to reddish as you extend outwards, say in Atlanta and its suburbs?

      If it is, I wonder if it benefits them because:

      (a) it would usually mean a more Democratic House and/or more Democratic state legislatures

      (b) it would mean they are fought over by both parties, ensuring a greater say directly or indirectly

      (c) it would mean there are simply more of them in the House and, later, in the Senate

      or

      (d) something else I am not thinking about right now.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:33:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Sen, PA-Sen, PA-AG: Some ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm visiting my dad in Burlington County, NJ this weekend and I saw 4 ads while waiting for dinner tonight:
    1) Bob Menendez ad
    2) Tom Smith Ad
    3) Kathleen Kane Ad
    4) Bob Casey ad (the good one with the bikers at the end)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:31:03 PM PDT

  •  This (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, bythesea

    was posted today in the Live Digest, but how many of you saw the web video the Super PAC that supported Newt (yeah I was surprised they were still around too)?

    If there's one video that symbolized throwing the kitchen sink at Obama, this has to be it. Especially when the video implies that in Obama's next four years he'll stand idly by while Islam becomes the majority religion in the US and Christianity is driven underground.

    Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

    by ehstronghold on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:42:00 PM PDT

  •  I'd like to know what's happening in NC-09 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, We Won

    Jennifer Roberts is the Dem running against tea partier Robert Pittinger in a newly redrawn district designed to provide the Repubs a +10 district. A poll in September left them at like 38-35. Any new news would be great.

    •  A district that red (4+ / 0-)

      with that many undecideds means it's probably safe republican still.  Most of the undecideds are Republicans or R-leaning independents.

      We haven't really heard any news, which means that there's not much going on there.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:56:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Back in September, polling was looking better (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        in NC than it is now (and for a lot of states too), so I would imagine Pittinger has a bigger lead among those people that were sampled then.  Plus, as James said, a lot of the undecideds were probably republican-leaning too.

        So in other words, I think this one's a longshot.

  •  NE-Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    I'm skeptical that Kerrey is really coming back, and I know the Pharos poll showing him down only 2 had a blue sample (Obama was only down 10), but the lack of any pretty much any polling (since the primary there has been 1 Rass poll in May, and one newspaper poll in Sept) makes me wonder if he could catch Fischer by surprise.

    I wonder if PPP will include NE on their upcoming final polls (they said they'd do about 20 states)

  •  I have still not learned how to use GIMP (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, tietack, CF of Aus

    so this was still made in paint:
    Photobucket

    This is Oregon's 20th senate district.  It was Dem-held from 2002-2010 by Kurt and then Martha Schrader.  In 2010 it was D+2, but after we lost it, redistricting significantly altered it, and now it is about R+1.6.

    This is a new precinct map, and the precincts are colored by voter registration simply based on the numbers of registered Ds and Rs.  Light blue precincts are between 50 and 55% Dem, medium are between 55 and 60% Dem, dark blue are over 60%, and similarly for red precincts.

    There is a divide in the map where it appears uncontiguous, this is the division between the two state house districts, the 39th and 40th.  The 39th is the larger, the 40th is the smaller to the upper left.  The 39th contains a lot of rural area, as well as the cities of Canby in the SW and Estacada in the SE, and there are significant populations in the center which are rural parts of Oregon City, in the NW which is part of the Clackamas area, and in the NE around Boring.  The 39th used to be R+3, and we came less than 500 votes short of winning it in 2008.  Redistricting changed it to R+6.  As you can see, the most conservative parts are around Canby and Boring, the most Democratic are more around Clackamas and Estacada.

    HD-40 used to be a safe Democratic district, but redistricting dropped it down to D+3.  It now includes the more Dem-leaning Gladstone to the north, and the less but still Dem-leaning Oregon City to the south.  It's open, too, and is probably the most endangered Democratic district in the state house, but I still think we'll win.  This is the heart of the Democratic vote in the senate district as well.

    Most of the Democratic areas of the senate district are pretty light blue, as you can see, and the Republican areas are mostly pretty pinkish, rather than dark red.  It is the definition of a swing district.  Obama won it, our Democratic congressmen won their precincts here even in 2010 (partially because Kurt Schrader lives here), but Kitzhaber, Kerry, and Merkley were all defeated here, some by substantial margins.  These facts may lead one to believe that the district is less swingy than it appears, but in 2008, while winning one of the narrowest races in the state in the last decade, Kate Brown, a liberal and openly bisexual, actually won this district narrowly, according to my research.  It is also very reliable in its numbers.  For example, it is about 2.5 points more conservative than the county (Clackamas) and even in the nominally nonpartisan county commission race last spring Martha Schrader did almost exactly 2.5 points worse there than in the county as a whole.

    On account of all of that, this is a key swing district in the state.  Won't be up till 2014, though.

    I plan to make precinct maps like these for some of the races this year, once the precinct results for the election become available.  I'll probably do it during winter break.  This is the only one that at this time I intend to do a map based on voter registration.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:23:58 PM PDT

  •  Just discover Nico Vega (0+ / 0-)

    And my favorite perhaps:

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:35:14 PM PDT

  •  Finally got my English collection (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chachy, MichaelNY

    and piece on Ryokan's poetry. Some early favorites:

    Within this serene snowfall
    one billion worlds
    arise.
    In each,
    flurries come floating down.

    It is not that
    I avoid mixing
    with the world;
    but I do better
    playing alone.

    Next I start on my Dogen collection, which also came in. I try to find good translations to get a feel for the work and be inspired. I want to study Japanese soon and get to being able to enjoy these works in their native language.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:37:08 PM PDT

    •  日本語は面白い言葉ですよ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid

      でも、難しいです。がんばってください。

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:06:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  actually (0+ / 0-)

      these poems would be in classical Japanese, no? that's a whole different beast...

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:09:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Early Edo period (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but apparently, the translator talks of how Ryokan writes using a somewhat quaint, old-fashioned Japanese for even his time period.

        I've heard no one is as hard to translate or understand as Dogen, though.

        Classical Japanese should be fun though, haha, if I can ever get done with my undergraduate (and German, ugh), and study it as I do my graduate school work in the Fine Arts.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:20:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think Kindaigo (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          (early Edo period Japanese) is closer to classical (like, Heian-era) Japanese than it is to modern Japanese.

          I took a class on classical Japanese last summer, and sadly I've forgotten so much in a year. it's hard to retain a language that isn't even alive anymore!

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:53:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  OR 47-42 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, abgin

    according to a local Republican pollster.  Says both that undecideds lean towards Romney, and that the two are tied among people who've already voted (Old people tend to vote earliest, so no surprise there).

    According to the article, he had Obama +7 in September 2008.  Obv, he went on to win by 17.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:32:57 PM PDT

  •  538: 74.4% chance President Obama wins (8+ / 0-)

    I think that's the highest since the week of the debate.

    Up to 57.3% chance of carrying Colorado, too. And Romney has fallen to a 62.9% chance of carrying Florida.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:42:46 PM PDT

    •  He also updated his Senate numbers Friday (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Dem chances of holding the Senate now at 89%.  Seat prediction at 52.4 Dem, 47.6 Rep, basically no change from the current Senate.  Not sure why exactly ND is rated as having a better chance of flipping than NE.  Indiana probably just needs some new polling for the takeover odds to surge.

      States he has with odds of Dems winning.  If you shift Indiana to Dem takeover the cutoff right now would be Dems picking up MA, ME, IN and Rep picking up ND, NE, MT.

      Dem Seats:
      ND (Open) - 12%
      NE (Open) - 15%
      MT (Tester) - 38%
      CT (Open) - 83%
      VA (Open) - 83%
      WI (Open) - 85%
      MO (McCaskill) - 88%
      OH (Brown) - 92%
      NM (Open) - 92%
      WV (Manchin) - 93%
      PA (Casey) - 94%

      Rep Seats:
      MA (Brown) - 92%
      ME (Open) - 91%
      IN (Open) - 35%
      NV (Heller) - 29%
      AZ (Open) - 28%

  •  The film version of Primary Colors is on TV. (5+ / 0-)

    Interesting trying to guess who's who.  Ozio is Mario Cuomo for example.  It does a great job showing the mystique of Clinton and what people saw in him back in '92.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:42:56 PM PDT

  •  Interesting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Audrid, ChadmanFL

    article I read in the Sydney Morning Herald about the events leading up to the fall of Kevin Rudd as PM in 2010. These are excerpts from a new book written by former Labor MP Maxine McKew's who famously beat John Howard in his own seat in 2007.

    http://www.smh.com.au/...

    It's a good long read for those who are interested and who have the time. Here are some quotes from the article:

    On how Julia Gillard was the unions' choice for PM:

    The HSU would soon be at the centre of a major national scandal surrounding its own leadership and alleged fraud, but right now, just like the AWU and others, it was busy telling Labor MPs in caucus - the ones they ''owned'' - that it was time to back someone seen to be more sympathetic to their interests. That's how it works, and Rudd never wanted anything to do with it. He'd tried to govern differently, without paying heed to the dominant factions and their union backers. He was never one of the ''tribe'' - and was now paying the price.
    On how Gillard was up to something fishy months before the coup:
    Albanese had also warned Rudd back in May, when the budget was being presented, to watch his back. Albo's antennae had been twitching for months, ever since he'd watched Gillard's cross-border intervention in the NSW preselections the previous November. Altered boundaries had left Reid MP Laurie Ferguson without a seat, but as he was Gillard's chief standard bearer in NSW, the deputy PM made it clear she wanted Ferguson ''looked after''. Gillard prevailed. Chris Hayes, who'd taken over the western Sydney seat of Werriwa from Mark Latham, was blasted out of Werriwa to accommodate Ferguson.
    McKew says that some believed Gillard was long planning to overthrow Rudd before Labor's slump in the polls in early 2010:
    McClelland also believes, as do others, that Gillard had planned all along to take over from Rudd in the second term, but with momentum moving away from the government, she decided it was time to hit the accelerator. The party research, which purported to show Gillard's superior leadership qualities, was central to her push for power.

    Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

    by ehstronghold on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:45:25 PM PDT

    •  McKew (0+ / 0-)

      was a Rudd loyalist.
      Whatever happened back then, this is part of the constant undermining of Julia by the Rudd faction. Whatever her faults (and she has plenty), every time Labor moves back up in the polls, the Rudd faction leaks embarrassing stuff like in the media. I would strongly resent it if I were a Labor member. There is no fucking need to revisit this when labor is in the midst of climbing back from wipe-out-level numbers in the polls

      •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

        but you can't blame the Rudd faction for having sore feelings. Personally Gillard should of forced Rudd to contest the June 2010 ballot or have Rudd's name on the leadership ballot instead of parade himself like a political martyr to this day. But you can't disagree that Gillard and Swan never liked Rudd.

        Speaking of which I'm surprised Gillard and Swan didn't twist some arms at preselection time in Rudd's seat and have Rudd turfed out in favor of someone more loyal to the PM. That would cemented Gillard's reputation as an iron lady and would of scared caucus into getting in line.

        There's no shortage of qualified Labor people seeing how Campbell Newman's smashing victory in March of this year left a lot of defeated state Labor MP's looking for another job. Hell they could of replaced Rudd with Cameron Dick seeing how his brother is well connected with the AWU.

        Or maybe they could of parachuted in Kate Jones as a reward for standing and trying to defeat Newman. But I think the party's saving her for another run at Ashgrove when Newman goes looking for a safer LNP seat to run in 2015.

        Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

        by ehstronghold on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:42:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sore feelings? (0+ / 0-)

          Well the Rudd people should get over themselves. They lost against Julia twice now. At some point sore feelings should be set aside for the good of the party. They have sabotaged the 2010 campaign and have thrown roadblocks every step of the way since. Every time Labor is on the upswing BOOM you can be sure Rudd creates trouble. Enough.
          Hillary got on board with Barack and Lord knows she was bitter too. Their behavior is disgraceful.

          •  You (0+ / 0-)

            have a point. Now it's Julia or bust for Labor. And Gillard has proven herself to Labor especially when she eviscerated Abbott a couple of weeks ago during Question Time.

            Personally I think it's time Rudd retires and have another Labor candidate stand in his seat at the next election. Newman's out of control slash and burn antics have probably guaranteed that Labor can hold Griffith without the need for Rudd's personal vote. And as I eluted to above, there is no shortage of talented people Labor can preselect.

            Plus Rudd's political career is over. It's time for him to follow Kristina Keneally and Anna Bligh to somewhere outside the public sector. And being a former PM and foreign minister I'm sure he'll be able to land a teaching position at some university hopefully outside Australia.

            Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

            by ehstronghold on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 12:48:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Gillard and Swan are not strong enough to replace (0+ / 0-)

          Rudd... She leads a minority government... she has no strength to force anybody out... and little to no influence in Queensland. Swan has influence but to go against Rudd would be to start a war and as Treasurer he couldnt afford the distraction.

          Rudd would beat an internal rival by about 99% to 1%. He is incredibly popular as a politician despite most people convinced that he would be a #$( to work for.

          Maxine is a journo and like almost every other successful person to switch to politics found that it is a brutal game. She thought she could survive as she had covered politics but she was a poor MP and a poor campaigner in her second election... But she will always be remembered for getting rid of Howeard.

          Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

          by CF of Aus on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 03:53:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Howard not Howeard NT (0+ / 0-)

            Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

            by CF of Aus on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 03:54:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Question for all you Hoosier Democrats (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Taget

    particularly those active in the party.  Evan Bayh was the sole machine-master that kept the IN DP running well.  When he retired, he abandoned that role and let wolves fight for it and it got divided.  However, can having a Democratic Senator again help pick up the pieces?  Can Donnelly pick up the strings that Bayh dropped in his short-sightedness and pull the party back together?

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:47:56 PM PDT

    •  Probably not. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      Bayh still has the loyalty of the majority of the state central committee. Donnelly will likely not be a "hands on" person as far as the state party. Remember that even after John Gregg was the presumptive nominee, he could not even change the state party. The Bayh cronies will not leave easily.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:51:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tough Call (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      Because of some stories that my field organizer has told me, I know some things about the internal functions of the party that aren't publicly known (including to other Hoosier members here). I'm not going to spill my guts because I promised him that I wouldn't. However, I know for a fact that Evan Bayh definitely hasn't dropped his role as "machine-master" with our state party. There is a very vigorous divide in our state party right now, and while I initially thought it was pretty bad, after the stories I've heard, I now recognize that our party has broken down into internecine warfare. Dan Parker seems to be the head of one camp, and John Gregg seems to be the head of the other camp. Figures like Evan Bayh and Brad Ellsworth have been caught up in the mess, and I wonder if the ousting of Pat Bauer was really just a proxy war in this larger intraparty conflict. Quite honestly, I'm amazed that Joe Donnelly hasn't been tripped up by all of this, and I think it's really helped his campaign to remain separate from the state party.

      I think that Donnelly can probably do a lot of good to help our party pick up the pieces after this election and move forward. I think the three best things we could do to heal our state party right now are to elect Donnelly to the Senate, to elect Gregg as Governor, and to oust Dan Parker from the party chairmanship. The first part is looking very likely for us right now, but the second part is looking pretty unlikely, and the third part is completely up in the air (even though he's promised to leave in 2013). I've learned specifically why Parker didn't want to retire last time, and if his attempted replacement comes through this next time, I'll be very content with our party going forward. We'll just have to wait past this election and see how things go.

      Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:04:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I like to think I know most of it. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Taget

        Well I certainly hope I know most of it, I've heard some terrible horror stories and would like to think that is it. It is more than Parker and Bayh cronies. And yeah, it isn't good you are right. Not about to change.

        Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

        by drhoosierdem on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:48:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But can Donnelly winning give him clout (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, Taget

          to end the conflict?  I mean, c'mon, if he wins, it would be foolish of them to ignore the Democratic Senator who got elected in spite of them.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:05:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Rep. Donnelly wins... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, Taget

            I think he becomes the de facto leader of the party by default.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:15:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Taget, IndianaProgressive

              Donnelly has partly been able to avoid the internecine warfare because of personal choice. By all of the accounts I've heard, he's tried to avoid a lot of the internal warfare. He genuinely doesn't seem very interested in the internal party structure, though I'll be checking up on this to make sure that my beliefs are correct. Either way, Donnelly definitely has not been caught up in the party leadership in the way that Dan Parker, Evan Bayh, John Gregg, and Brad Ellsworth have been. When Donnelly says that he's not a partisan guy, he really does mean it. I think he might have a beneficial impact on the fighting by stressing for the two sides to get over their bickering. However, I don't think his election on its own would make much difference with regard to the fighting. The election of Gregg and the ousting of Parker would have much more beneficial effects.

              Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

              by AndySonSon on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:23:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I can't really add anything that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      SIND, Andy and The Doctor haven't already said, but I agree that the state party isn't changing until Dan Parker's out of there.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:48:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New record for most offensive banner ad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sapelcovits, itskevin

    that I have seen on this site goes to an ad linking to this webpage. It attacks Baldwin and Pocan essentially for being gay.

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:48:05 PM PDT

    •  Going after Pocan? Such a waste! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:49:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's what I thought (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but yes, they are showcasing Pocan with Baldwin as a footnote. Apparently they must buy the hype that Chad Lee is putting out (i.e. I'm the guy that only lost to Baldwin by 23 points in 2010, so this is a winnable race against a Ultra-Liberal Career Politician!).

        Thing is, this district had a Republican incumbent within living memory, so local Republicans (yes, they do exist, though mainly in newspaper comment sections) keep thinking they can pick up WI-02 under the right circumstances. And they absolutely hate Mark Pocan, so they probably assume that he's a weak candidate and can be beaten if they only stick to their Conservative Principles close enough. So that's why they run ads like that one that only make non-batsh!t voters more likely to vote for Pocan.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:13:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  "Offense of Marriage Act"? (9+ / 0-)

      "Homosexual Classrooms Act"?

      Where do they get this shit? Probably from the same place all their other shit comes out of...

      I can't wait until we beat these people. I just want to watch FOX News for a week after the election just to enjoy the schadenfreude of anguished conservatives wailing and gnashing their teeth over President-elect Obama, Sens.-elect Elizabeth Warren, Tammy Baldwin, and Richard Carmona, and Reps.-elect Tammy Duckworth, Syed Taj, Alan Grayson, Raul Ruiz, Jose Hernandez, David Gill, Carol Shea-Porter, and Al Lawson.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:53:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "Public Advocate" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY

      It's a known anti-gay hate group. It's the reason we've had to disavow the "Democratic" candidate for Senate in TN.

  •  Election night thread suggestions (15+ / 0-)

    1) Separate Front page and DKE threads

    2) Creat new threads at 250 comments, not 100.  Cutting at 100 or so leads to too much redundancy, which defeats the purpose of making new threads, and the volume of comments should move way too fast to make 100 useful.

    3) If possible, temporarily disable the ability to post/embed Youtube or other videos and graphics.  

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:06:31 PM PDT

  •  PPP: Still tied on the tracker (5+ / 0-)

    Tom Jensen adds a fun fact. Tweet here.

    Over the last 3 nights of our national tracking 581 respondents said they were voting for Obama, 581 for Romney, 38 undecided
    All tied up! Except that PPP doesn't call cell phones okay bye.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:07:28 PM PDT

  •  Washoe county after 1st week of early voting (8+ / 0-)

    Dems continue to run about 1000 voters ahead of Republicans in Washoe County, NV.  This is out 52,589 total early voters (including indies), so about a 2% advantage.  Registration is tied in the county, but for Romney to have any chance he needs to win Washoe big.

    Overall, Dems have an 8%+ advantage statewide in NV.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:14:20 PM PDT

  •  Donnelly Campaign: Days 3, 4, and 5 (16+ / 0-)

    Hey everybody. I know I haven't made a post about our progress for the last few days, so I thought I would catch up.

    Day 3 (Wednesday): Wednesday night saw some decent progress. I personally made about 20 to 25 calls. I ended up calling the former head of our County Democratic Party, and he seemed friendly, but he can't volunteer due to his service as a poll watcher in conservative precincts. However, he did say he believes that (to paraphrase) "Donnelly's got a pretty good chance of winning after Mourdock sucked his dick at last night's debate!" My field organizer and his region leader (who reminds me so much of Bill Clinton, right down to his raspy voice and his fascination with strip clubs) also told me many stories about college life and living on a campus. I'm really ready to go down to IUB already. ~_~

    Day 4 (Thursday): Thursday was a very productive night. I made 75 calls (my field organizer estimates that, in reality, HubDialer cycled through about 300 calls in this process), and I worked hard to be persuasive when I could. I convinced two undecided voters to vote for Donnelly, and I persuaded one Mourdock supporter to vote for Donnelly. I was also about to sign up two new volunteers for our campaign, so we'll be getting some more support in the final days. I came in contact with one nice Republican voter who told me, "I'm so far right I have to look left to see Newt Gingrich." I came into contact with our 2006 Democratic candidate for County Sheriff, and he seemed like he would normally be willing to volunteer for our campaign, but he's currently suffering from an injury (one that my grandfather required surgery for back in 2005, so I know he's not having a fun time right now). I also came into contact with a very old Greek woman who initially had a very hard time hearing me. When I asked her about who she preferred in the Senate race, her response was "I will not vote for either. I do not like Democrats or Republicans. They are both full of shit. Goodbye!" In all, it was a pretty good evening.

    Day 5 (Friday): My field organizer and I didn't do too much work tonight. For the most part, I called to check up on some volunteers for our phonebank this weekend, but all of them went to answering machines. I was also able to sign up two new volunteers for our campaign. For what it's worth, my field organizer quizzed me on almost all of the locations of Senators and Senate candidates all across the country. I got everything correct except for Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD); I had a massive brain fart and couldn't get Rep. Tim Johnson (R-IL) out of my head. :| Regardless, I probably owe this wisdom to DKE. :P

    For Saturday and Sunday, we'll be doing massive phonebanks with our local United Auto Workers union (this is a major benefit of living in an industrial city like Kokomo). My field organizer has put me in charge of helping to run the phonebank, so I'm really looking forward to making some progress this weekend. We'll see how things go, and I'll be back with a progress report as time goes on.

    Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:32:22 PM PDT

    •  You're in Kokomo? (6+ / 0-)

      I just mentioned to sapel the other day that it's kind of funny there's a Beach Boys song about Kokomo, but it turns out that there's no tropical island named Kokomo, rather, it's an industrial city in Indiana.

    •  Have you had anyone in your area (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that voted early for Mourdock that has asked if they can change their vote?

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:56:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao, MichaelNY, Taget

        To be fair, most of the calls I've made have been to either strong Democrats or people who were abrasive and hung up (HubDialer generally tries to hit Democratic and undecided voters; I believe it was lent to us by the DSCC, but I'm not sure). I've only gotten a hold of a few voters who considered themselves undecided or Mourdock supporters, and I figure that there shouldn't be a vast amount of voters who cast their votes before Mourdock's comments on Tuesday. Furthermore, anyone who voted before Tuesday's comments clearly had their mind made up about Mourdock if they voted that early in the election. Such voters probably would have been beyond the campaign's reach and probably couldn't have been persuaded to vote for Donnelly even after Mourdock's rape remarks. I'm honestly not too worried about it. Mourdock has sunk his campaign more than we could ever do on our own. We just have to seal the deal and get out the vote. We'll do what we have to do to finish the job. ;)

        Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:34:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  IU Bloomington is fantastic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid

      I love it there and miss being down there most days. I would suggest getting involved in IUCD (obviously) and Union Board.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:50:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I can't imagine any college being fantastic, (0+ / 0-)

        right now.

        Probably because I'm so neurotic.

      •  IUB (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        I was accepted to IUB very quickly after applying last fall, but for a variety of reasons, I've stayed at IUK for this year. I'll hopefully be down at IUB next fall. I visited the campus for a tour during spring break of 2011 (it was during the WI-SC recount, and I kept thinking about my visit after the bin Laden raid, so I always think of my visit in tandem with those two political events). I'm really looking forward to the opportunity. I have no idea what organizations I would join, though. :P

        Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 08:27:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was very involved with Union Board (0+ / 0-)

          And it was pretty much the best experience of my college career.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 09:00:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Union Board (0+ / 0-)

            What all is involved with Union Board?

            Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

            by AndySonSon on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 09:05:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Simply put, it's the programming board (0+ / 0-)

              They have a weekly film series, a handful of concerts every year, they bring prominent people there for lectures (Ehud Barak is one that comes to mind), they put out a literary magazine every year, etc. When I was there I was assistant director of the Comedy Committee, we sponsored the campus' multiple comedy troupes and we also brought Max Brooks to do a lecture on his book The Zombie Survival Guide.

              http://www.ub.indiana.edu/...

              Check it out.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

              by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 10:09:11 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I don't like "pro-life" candidates (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      politicalmetrics

      But I know he's a damn sight better than extremist Mourdock. I just sent his campaign $25.

      Good luck and thanks for all the work you're doing!

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 02:57:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good Democrat (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Taget, JGibson

        I promise you that Joe Donnelly will be a good Democrat in the Senate. Some liberals, especially people at Daily Kos, tend to see that he's pro-life and become automatically skeptical of his candidacy. However, I can promise that he's not a firebreather on social issues. As far as I can recall, the only time he's ever brought up the issue of abortion throughout this campaign was when he was directly asked about it in the final debate, and he was very short and direct in his answer because he was more focused on other issues. I sometimes wonder if he only says he's pro-life because it's effectively impossible to be elected as a pro-choice Democrat to statewide office. It's honestly not a big issue for him; it's just a part of his Roman Catholic doctrine. For the vast amount of his service in Congress, his focus has been on economic issues and veteran benefits. He's been an economic populist, and he'll vote with us when we need his vote in the Senate. I've compared him to Mike Ross in this regard - socially conservative and economically populist, but he keeps his head down to avoid trouble in a red state. We don't call him "Silent Joe" for nothing. ;)

        Thanks. :) I've been aiming to get my political career started for awhile now, and I think this is a great first step. It certainly doesn't hurt to help get a good Democrat into a strongly Republican seat in the process.

        Volunteer for the Joe Donnelly Senate Campaign; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 08:43:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's a good Democrat for Indiana (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, itskevin

          But his vote against the Matthew Shepard Act really irks me, among other things.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 09:05:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Indiana (0+ / 0-)

          has a majority for banning abortion except for victims of rape and incest (whose fetuses are equally "persons," if you are actually principled about embryos and fetuses as "life," rather than a weird punishment for a "bad girl")? Is that really so?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 11:06:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  MO Mason-Dixon: McCaskill 45-43 (6+ / 0-)

    Romney 54-41.  Nixon 48-42.

    Among multistate pollsters, only Gravis and Rasmussen were found to have a bigger Republican house effect.  As the governor's race numbers indicate.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:03:02 PM PDT

  •  Something's (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Hamtree

    in the water in Australia these days because we have yet another revelation from 2010. This time it's from the Liberals:

    THE opposition frontbencher Bronwyn Bishop has revealed that Tony Abbott would have called another election had he succeeded in negotiating with the independents in 2010 to form minority government.

    Ms Bishop's revelation confirms the long-held suspicions of the independents, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor, who never trusted Mr Abbott's assurances he would govern for the full term.

    It has also been seized upon by the government's Craig Emerson to claim Mr Abbott ''has been exposed as a liar''.

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/...

    Good on Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor for seeing through the snake oil Abbott was selling at the time. It's too bad both men probably won't be in parliament after the next election.

    Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

    by ehstronghold on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:00:46 PM PDT

  •  Democrats lead by 21 votes on Friday in Washoe (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, MichaelNY, askew, itskevin

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:19:32 PM PDT

  •  IN Sen (9+ / 0-)

    Counted three Mourdock signs taken down. They kept other signs up. One house is actually mixed with their signs, they have some local dem ones up, the other two are straight R in their signs. Anecdotal for sure, but I take it as a good sign all the same.  

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:52:05 PM PDT

    •  Agreed. People with signs are usually pretty (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, WisJohn

      politically oriented. Taking down the sign may not mean removal of support, but definitely shows embarrassment to be associated with the candidate.

    •  I've mentioned this on twitter (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      But near my house there's a plant that manufactures molded acoustical insulation for cars, and there's a handful of Mourdock signs posted outside it (not on anyone's property, so I assume volunteers put them there). It makes me laugh every time.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:53:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if Mourdock (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is going to be in the Corydon Parade tonight.

      I told the local Democrats that they needed to push the issue and tie the GOP candidates to Mourdock, but nothing seems to have happened on that front.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 02:00:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Could also be (0+ / 0-)

      that Murdock's signs are being intentionally targeted too. We have a man who is pretty controversial running for the state House here who's signs have been intentionally targeted by theift and vandals.

      Age 24, WA-3, Republican, elected PCO, overall conservative, gay and engaged, vote yes on WA R-74

      by KyleinWA on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 05:12:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  MI-11 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      While we're on the yard sign discussion, let me continue the anecdotal observations I was asked for yesterday:

      Local Dems in my area were busy yesterday. Way more sign for Taj and the state rep candidate in roadside locations than the day before.

      Also, I noticed the first split-party house on my way home. Signs for Taj and the Republican candidate for county commission. (Population decline in Detroit lead to there now being two likely-R seats on the county commission instead of one safe-R; I live in one of them.)

      Finally, it is fairly rare for a Taj sign to be in someone's yard without them having another Dem's sign up; but I didn't see any Bentivolio signs up without another Republicans.

      31, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

      by borodino21 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:07:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Clark County Democrats gained ~4K Friday (7+ / 0-)

    which seemed to be slow day overall.  Democrats at 40K lead (after approximate absentees factored in):
    http://redrock.clarkcountynv.gov/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 11:06:55 PM PDT

  •  RAND ticks up slightly further (4+ / 0-)

    In round numbers still 51-45, but .43 net improvement for Obama.

  •  SUSA NY Pres: Obama 62-33 (6+ / 0-)

    Link. That's actually a couple of points better than his 2008 margin. In the Senate race, they have Gillibrand up by 42 points (64-22).

  •  PA: Obama 49-43 (6+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 04:07:38 AM PDT

  •  NJ: Obama up by 10 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, askew, MBishop1, MichaelNY

    http://www.philly.com/...

    But they don't seem to give the actual numbers in the article.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 04:21:19 AM PDT

  •  Iowa early voting through Thursday (5+ / 0-)

    http://sos.iowa.gov/...

    423k total voters, 192k Democrats and 135k Republicans. A 57k margin, about 45-32 Dem. Currently about 60% the margin of 2008, when it was 545k total voters, 250k D to 157k R, for a 97k margin, it was 46-29 Dem then. The numbers are currently pretty close to the final 2004 numbers: there were 460k total early voters, 194k Democrats, 141k Republicans. So it sounds like a pretty close race to me.

  •  Rand showing voters making up their minds? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MBishop1, MichaelNY, bfen

    when the Rand panel first started in July, the combined Romney / Obama scores were about 89%. By the beginning of september, it was up to 93%. September was pretty steady, around 93.5%, but in October, the combined total has increased about 0.5% every week. Now we're at 95.5%, with an Obama lead of 6.3%.  In the past week, Romney has dropped about 1%, and Obama has increased about 2.5%.  I don't believe that Obama is really up 6.3%, but I think it's become clear that 1) Obama voters are coming home, and 2) Romney is just not going to sweep up a lot of the undecideds.

  •  Rasmussen still doing his bit for Romney (0+ / 0-)

    Up a point to 50-46 and Obama approval down to 47-52.

  •  EC predictions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701

    Am I imagining things, or have "safe" states been much more ignored by pollsters this year than in previous years?  I could've sworn we got more safe state polls in 2008.  This had led to a lot of uncertainty about what's going on in the safe states.  I've seen some writeups (Steve Kormacki?) that suggest a possible collapse of Obama in all the safe blue and red states.  Not enough to actually flip any of the states, but enough to make Romney win the popular vote and make Obama look very weak coming out of a reelection.

    DEEP BLUE STATES:  (Obama by >20%)

    VT, MA, RI, NY, DE, MD, DC, HI, ME-01

    To tell the truth, VT, DE, DC, and HI are the ONLY states that I'm absolutely sure will go deep blue.  I'm only optimistically guessing about the other states because we've had so few polls.  (I think recent MA and NY polls have been better, though).  

    SOLID BLUE STATES: (Obama by 10-20%)

    CT, IL, CA, ME, NJ, MN, NM, OR, WA

    CT always seems to lean redder compared to most other northeastern states.  Some CA polls show Obama below 20%, and some representative polls show GOP strength, making me wonder if Obama will underperform in his home state of IL, embarrassing him.  

    I'm pretty sure the latino vote will keep NM just above 10%, and I'm confident in the Northwest states.  I also think MN may even do better than 2008, because the GOP ignored that state.  Ironic, since MN was Obama's weakest state in that region in 2008.

    LIGHT BLUE STATES:  (Obama by <10%)

    PA, MI, WI, NV, NH, VA, OH, IA, CO, ME-02

    I think NV, MI, and ME-02 will be in the high single digits for Obama, with PA around 7%.  I'm going out on a limb and say Obama wins CO and VA.  I feel better about CO because of the Latino vote and because it withstood the 2010 GOP wave.  OH I feel pretty sure about; Obama may win it by 6%.  But I REALLY wish Obama's firewall DIDN'T depend on IA, NH, and especially WI.  I just really don't trust those states being Dem.  

    LIGHT RED STATES:  (Romney by <10%)

    NC, FL, IN, GA,  MO, AZ, NE-02

    I'm only going by current poll results for NC and FL.  I REALLY hope a strong GOTV effort can flip both states back to Obama.  I'm also going to go out on a limb and guess that Romney's win in AZ and NE-02 will be only by about 6% because of increased Latino vote, and that his wins in IN, GA, and MO will only be around 9%.  

    SOLID RED STATES:  (Romney by 10-20%)

    SC, SD, ND, MT, MS, TN, TX, NE, NE-01

    A lot of light red states in the north central region become redder, as well as SC due to Obama ignoring that state.  But I think Obama's base can keep MS to 15%, and people keep talking about things being not so bad in TN.  I also think the Latino vote can hold TX to 16%; the TX red swing is overhyped.  Obama performances in NE-01 and NE-02 keep NE from being deep red.

    DEEP RED STATES:  (Romney by >20%)

    KY, WV, AR, LA, KS, AL, OK, WY, UT, ID, AK, NE-03

    The Appalachian/Ozark states will swing heavily to Romney, along with KS.  I had thought that we could make AK bluer, but Obama ignored that state this year.

    So I predict Obama winning 303 EV, maybe 347 if he can keep FL and NC.  But it could be as low as 281 if he loses CO and VA.  If that happens, Obama will be looking very weak coming out of the reelection.

  •  Senate Predictions (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY, ChadmanFL

    DEMOCRATIC SEATS

    Definite flip to R:  NE

    I haven't seen any actual polls backing up some assertions that Kerrey is actually doing well.

    Possible flip to R: MT

    Now Tester has had a couple of good polls, but I wish there were more to feel better about his seat.

    Possible hold:  ND, MO, VA, CT, WI

    I'm going out on a limb and say Heitkamp barely wins it, because Berg hurt himself in that "Hot Seat" interview where he squirmed when talking about punishing women who have abortions after he bans them.   I'm still not completely confident of a MacKaskill win, but polls for Murphy and Baldwin are looking better.  Kaine seems to be doing better than Obama in polls.

    Likely hold:  OH, PA, FL, MI

    Sherrod Brown, Casey and Nelson have all consistently led in polls.  I don't see much chance of a flip in those seats.  I think the GOP tried to flip Stablenow's seat, but that was a bust.

    Definite hold:  RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, WV, MN, NM, CA, WA, HI

    Didn't the GOP try to make the NJ, NM, and HI seats competitive?  We hardly heard anything about those seats, though.  So big busts for the GOP there.

    INDEPENDENT SEATS

    Definite hold:  VT

    Bernie Sanders has no competition.

    REPUBLICAN SEATS

    Definite hold:  TN, MS, WY, UT, TX

    Too bad Orrin Hatch won, and too bad the Dems fell apart in TX.  I was really hoping for a competitive race in TX.

    Possible hold:  NV, AZ

    Actually, PPP's poll hints that Berkeley may win NV after all.  I want to see more polls like that.  I think Carmona blew it with his Candy Crowley remark, but he'll still be close.

    Possible flip to D:  IN

    I'm on the side of the people who think Mourdock killed his chances with his remarks, but that's still just a guess.

    Likely flip to D:  MA

    Polls keep improving for Warren.  Scott Brown really did sink himself in his debates.

    Definite flip to I:  ME

    Any attempt to oppose King fizzled.   I still don't trust King, though.

    So it looks like two flips to R, two flips to D and one flip to I.  

  •  Harry Enten with an EC analysis (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    uclabruin18, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    In the UK Guardian. His main point is that it's very bad for Romney that he hasn't led in a single recent non-partisan poll of OH or WI. With NV effectively gone he says he'll be looking to see if Romney can show a lead in any poll of OH or WI in the next week. If he can't, history suggests he's probably toast: in the last 3 elections only one state has been won by a candidate who did not lead in that state in any poll in the last two weeks of the campaign (NM in 2000).

  •  PA Sen: Casey 49-42 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MBishop1, MichaelNY

    Phila Inquirer.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:39:54 AM PDT

  •  MO Sen: McCaskill internal has her up 52-39 (7+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:42:45 AM PDT

  •  TN: Romney 59-34 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, aamail6

    Middle TN State U.

    More indication of some of the popular vote results.

    Can't provide the links right now folks.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:47:43 AM PDT

    •  TN? (0+ / 0-)

      I thought people were saying that TN wouldn't be so bad for Obama.

    •  That's the first poll of TN (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      All cycle that has shown Tennessee in the safe zone (15%+) for Romney.  Maybe the early polls were just a mirage, which was what GradyDem had been telling me for months.

      •  TN (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I agree, I think those polls were a mirage and that the AppaOzark corridor will all see a big dropoff from 08. Not sure its the whole reason for the national-state disparity, and I don't think the blue state dropoff is real, but its the only explanation I've heard that is plausible. are there other explanations I have been missing?

        OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

        by aamail6 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 11:49:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  is there really that much further it can drop (0+ / 0-)

          from 2008?

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:18:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, there definitely is (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Obama actually got semi-respectable vote shares in a few heavily Blue Dog areas, though not what Kerry got. The electorate will probably be about 81/15/3/1 white/black/Latino/other, so if Obama got a vote share of 25/90/70/70, he'd have 37% of the vote instead of the 42% he got in 2008. Because of the urban whites in Nashville and Memphis, this is probably close to a floor for him absent low black turnout or a R blowout nationally.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:55:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I really don't know why we can make the assumption (0+ / 0-)

              that Obama's performance in white areas like these wasn't already the Democratic floor.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:59:04 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Let me make it a question. (0+ / 0-)

    In what states will Obama's margin be more reduced by more than 7 points from 2008?  

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 08:11:42 AM PDT

  •  PA-Sen: Casey up 52/40 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, askew

    in a Harstad poll for the DSCC.

    The survey, conducted by Colorado-based Harstad Strategic Research from Oct. 21-24, showed Casey at 52 percent ad Smith at 40, with 8 percent either undecided or voting for Libertarian candidate Rayburn Smith.

    That’s better for Casey than their Oct. 14-18 poll , which showed him ahead just 49 percent to 41. But it’s identical to the margin of their poll from Oct. 8-11.

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    The story's from yesterday, so this may have been posted already. Not sure.

  •  IL-08: Now or Never PAC gives up (6+ / 0-)

    Naturally, they're spinning it as, "our work here is done!", but it looks like Walsh's comments on abortion have finally buried him.

  •  LordMike/Ohio Folks: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, MichaelNY

    Any sense of how Romney's big Jeep lie is playing? A commenter in the polling wrap shared a pretty compelling anecdote about how one individual R responded. I wonder if this has gained traction?

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  Has Obama even been to Ohio the past few days? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, MichaelNY

    I'm not saying that he's losing it, but the public poll margins clearly don't seem like it's exactly a "safe" state yet either.  On the flip side, he'll be in Florida at least twice now (Thursday, tomorrow) while Biden is doing one event in Virginia.  Romney and Ryan are furiously touring Ohio, Florida and Virginia in the mean time.  

    It seems Obama and Biden have a considerably lighter schedule than Romney's.  Whether that's confidence on Obama's part or simply a calculated move, it doesn't look a lot like Romney thinks any of those states are safe for him right now.  

    I have said it many times, but it does not seem like Obama has triaged Florida at all.  The state is winnable if they bring his voters to the polls.  North Carolina, he hasn't been to in a long time, but neither has Romney.  It's a case where we will rely on the ground game if Obama has any chance of winning it, while Romney appears to be expecting the state's lean to hold him there.  At this point, I would even think that the fact that Florida has early voting while Virginia does not makes it a better place for OFA to flex its muscle.

  •  Reuters/Ipsos: 47 Obama, 45 Romney (8+ / 0-)

    net +1 since yesterday

  •  MN Pres: Obama 53-45 (6+ / 0-)

    Survey by St Cloud University.

    In line with other recent polls of the state. I think it's pretty clear that the MN ads Romney's run this week are not aimed at Minnesota.

  •  ras has romney up 6 in NC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1

    52-46. no change from last week. one-night poll on a friday. heh.

  •  Gallup unchanged (0+ / 0-)

    51-46 LVs, 48-48 RVs. But approval has a sharp drop to 46-49.

    Well at least they're internally consistent now. But can they give any credible justification for the wild swings on approval other than methodological problems? No-one else has picked up anything like this.

  •  IBD/TIPP: Obama 47-45 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MBishop1, MichaelNY, itskevin

    +2.1 to be exact, I think it was 2.3 yesterday.

    link.

    So I think that's Gallup and Ras with significant leads for Romney, RAND with a significant lead for Obama, Ipsos and IBD with a narrow lead for Obama, ABC News with a narrow lead for Romney, and PPP exactly tied.

    One thing we know for sure: some pollster is going to have egg on their face after the election.

    •  Worth pointing out that Nate Silver (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bythesea, MBishop1, MichaelNY, itskevin

      has a projected Obama+1.7 national popular vote margin, probably because he uses state polling (all of it, not just swing state polling) to influence his national projections.  

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 10:40:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right, I was going to add (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        you also have the state polls, which seems to show consistency in most cases, unlike the national polling. Small, but consistent leads for Obama in OH, WI, NV, and the same for Romney in FL. CO, VA, NH, IA, and arguably NC are tossups, although NC, I think, leans Romney.

    •  I would so love it to be Gallup and Ras (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Not just because it would mean Obama's won, but... just because...

      Gallup annoy me because they're so arrogant and with so little cause, trading on their name long since they've done anything to deserve respect for their political forecasting.

      And Rasmussen is, when all's said and done, basically a Republican shill masquerading as a pollster. Time he was outed.

  •  Dueling memos (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, MBishop1

    Found this interesting:  the BuzzFeed folks took the Obama and Romney Ohio memos to someone from the opposite campaign to get handwritten critiques:

    Exclusive: Obama And Romney Campaign Ohio Memos, As Annotated By The Opposite Side;  Republican contests Obama data. Democrat derides “fauxthusiasm” and other “bullshit.”

    •  Yes, a good read (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MBishop1

      Of course I found the Obama side critique of the Republican memo rather more convincing. It seemed to concentrate rather more on contesting the facts and where appropriate supplying alternative numbers whereas the Republican guy seemed to spend as much effort doing stuff like changing "sitting president" to "one-term president", which seemed a bit puerile.

    •  too much snark not enough substance. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, DCCyclone

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 11:45:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Florida Early voting (16+ / 0-)

    Long lines with wait wait times of up to 5:30  hours in Miami-Dade, Broward counties.

    http://www.miamidade.gov/...

    http://www.browardsoe.org/

    I can't imagine lines that long. This will be my 8th presidential election and I don't think I have ever had more than a 15 minute wait.

    "We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." - Rick Santorum

    by Minnesota Mike on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 11:43:38 AM PDT

  •  "Obama supporters are changing their vote!" ads (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6, MichaelNY

    Can we get a "Republicans are supporting Obama" ad campaign yet, please?

    •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      we should have had a "Republicans for Obama" group (modeled on "Democrats for Nixon" message-wise, advertising primarily around military bases military bases VA and FL) attacking Romney as a flip-flopper who would be weak on terrorism. Maybe we could have got Colin Powell to star in a TV advertisement? That PAC (assuming we organized it as a PAC) would have been a big hit with big money donors, especially if Lieberman or Webb (or preferably both) would have been willing to co-chair it. Ah well...

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:35:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen's Fantasy "Swing State" Poll (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, Taniel, sulthernao, ChadmanFL

    As of 10/27, Rasmussen's Swing State poll has Romney +6.  It has been at least Romney +4 since 10/23.

    The poll contains these 11 states: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.

    Here are Rasmussen's state results with the release dates:
    CO: R+4 (10/22)
    FL: R+2 (10/26)
    IA: EVEN (10/21)
    MI: O+7 (10/12)
    NV: O+3 (10/24)
    NH: R+2 (10/24)
    NC: R+6 (10/27)
    OH: EVEN (10/24)
    PA: O+5 (10/25)
    VA: R+2 (10/25)
    WI: EVEN (10/26)

    All of the state polls are from 10/21 or later except Michigan.  Romney is ahead by 4 or more in only 2 states: CO and NC.  Obama is ahead or even in 6 states: IA, MI, NV, OH, PA, WI.  The average for all 11 states is Even.

    In order for the Swing State poll to be accurate, Romney would have to be doing about 5 points better in each state.  For example, OH: R+5, NV: R+2, PA: Even, WI: R+5, CO: R+9, IA: R+5.  Those results would be absurd, and so is Rasmussen's attempt to imply that Romney is up 4 to 6 points in the Swing States.  

  •  Turnout speculation (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Inkan1969, askew

    Neera Tanden said there were huge lines in DC for voting and since we also see huge lines around the country (see GA), she speculated the talk of losing the national popular vote may motivate some Democrats in blue states.
    I find it hard to believe in the sense I think many people who were not gonna vote are probably too low-information to have heard about that but that's a theory I will hang on to to feel less nervous LOL

  •  ABC/Wash Post (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Are they doing a release today???

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