Friday-lite is somewhat of a thing of the past, as we get
43 polls to close out the week, and clear conclusions remain elusive, though the clear message from Friday's data is that you'd much rather be the president than his opponent.
The national polls continue their bounciness, although the president got his fair share of the bounces today. But the swing states looked especially good for the president today, including some GOP pollsters who, while still conceding a lead to the Republican, had the race far too close for comfort in states that Republicans have long presumed would be a lock in their path to 270.
So, where does that ultimately put us? Based on the math, it looks like we are basically where we have been for two weeks now. The president has an edge, but it is a narrow one, and the coalition of states that put him over the top are led by margins that are not insurmountable. However, two things are clear, both of which are bad news for Mitt Romney's supporters, he still has a built-in electoral college disadvantage, and any Denver momentum he might have established has clearly been stalled.
More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 48
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 51, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 48 (RV)
NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47
COLORADO (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 46
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 48
FLORIDA (Voter Survey Service for Sunshine State News--R): Romney 51, Obama 46
INDIANA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 55, Obama 41
IOWA (Gravis--R): Obama 50, Romney 46
NEVADA (Gravis--R): Obama 50, Romney 49
NEW HAMPSHIRE (New England College): Obama 49, Romney 46
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 43
NEW YORK (Siena): Obama 59, Romney 35
NORTH CAROLINA (Gravis--R): Romney 53, Obama 45
NORTH CAROLINA (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction--D): Obama 47, Romney 44
NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas--R): Romney 48, Obama 47
OHIO (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 47
OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama 50, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV)
OHIO (Purple Strategies): Obama 46, Romney 44
OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Romney 58, Obama 33
VIRGINIA (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 47
WISCONSIN (Grove Insight for USAction/Project New America--D): Obama 48, Romney 43
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 49, Romney 49
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
IN-SEN (Anzalone-Liszt for the DSCC): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 40
IN-SEN (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Joe Donnelly (D) 44, Richard Mourdock (R) 44, Andy Horning (L) 6
MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D) 52, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 47
NM-SEN (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 44
NY-SEN (Siena): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 67, Wendy Long (R) 24
ND-SEN (Mellman Group for the Heitkamp campaign): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48, Rick Berg (R) 44
PA-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 40
PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46, Tom Smith (R) 45
VA-SEN (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 49, George Allen (R) 48
NH-GOV (New England College): Maggie Hassan (D) 45, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 45
CA-33 (SurveyUSA): Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 44, Rep. Howard Berman (D) 33
IL-08 (Chicago Tribune): Tammy Duckworth (D) 50, Rep. Joe Walsh (R) 40
IA-01 (Victory Enterprises for the Lange campaign): Ben Lange (R) 47, Rep. Bruce Braley (D) 45
KY-06 (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United--R): Andy Barr (R) 45, Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 41
NC-07 (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United--R): David Rouzer (R) 45, Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) 39
OH-16 (OnMessage for the Renacci campaign): Rep. Jim Renacci (R) 51, Betty Sutton (D) 41
PA-12 (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United--R): Keith Rothfus (R) 44, Mark Critz (D) 39
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
Today, the national polling movement was far from uniform, but edged ever so slightly in the direction of the president. One of the traditional seven tracking polls didn't update today, as far as I can tell (UPI/CVoter). The other six polls still average out to a 1.0 percentage point advantage for Mitt Romney, but the trajectory of today's polls was far less uniform. Indeed, the six polls split uniformly in their movement today. Two polls (PPP, Gallup) gave Mitt Romney a bump of 1-2 points. Two polls (ABC/WaPo and Ipsos-Reuters) gave Barack Obama a bump of 1-2 points. The final two tracking polls updated today (Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP) held steady from the day before.
In short, the national polls were a textbook definition of float within the margin.
The state polls, however, were another matter.
The leading "nonpartisan" poll of the day, the much awaited CNN/ORC poll in pivotal Ohio, was a very positive data point for the president. The pollster had President Obama up four with likely voters, and up seven among registered voters. What's more: the president was at or above 50 in both iterations of the poll. Meanwhile, two pollsters that have historically been a bit bullish on the president (Purple Strategies and ARG) also gave Obama the lead in Ohio.
Even some Republican pollsters gave some better-than-expected data points to the Obama team. The House of Ras, after staking Mitt Romney to a five-point edge and declaring Florida a "leans Romney" state, pulled his edge in their poll back to two points and reverted the state to "toss up" status. And GOP pollsters National Research, polling on behalf of the conservative Civitas Institute, found a one-point race in North Carolina, long conceded by most of the traditional press to the Republicans.
Indeed, another Democratic poll in the Tar Heel State actually had Obama in the lead. This all comes, of course, on the heels of a PPP poll showing the state tied just yesterday. At this point, only Gravis is on the island of thinking the state is still locked down for the Romney campaign.
In other polling news...
- Ah, Gravis. They continue to make the case to be the first polling outfit ever to get consigned to the Zogby Interactive memorial penalty box before even getting one cycle to prove their veracity or worth. Leaving aside the 8-point lead to which they stake Mitt Romney (which is, in itself, pretty laughable), they really crap the bed with their analysis out of Nevada. It's not the one-point margin that is a total joke (although it is, of course, the most pessimistic assessment of the race of recent vintage), it is the fact that they get there despite a D+9 sample. How do they do that? By claiming that Mitt Romney will win Independent voters in the Silver State. By a 68-32 margin. I shit thee not.
- Meanwhile, a glance at the House polling today (sparse as it is) looks pretty pessimistic for Democrats. Until you consider that three of them come from the same polling house--GOP pollsters Wenzel Research. They are the pollster of choice for the right-wing PAC Citizens United (yes...that Citizens United), and their past performance has been...well...not so hot. They were the pollsters in 2010 that had Washington's venerable Democratic veteran Rep. Norm Dicks losing to a Some Dude named Doug Cloud by a 48-44 margin. As it happens, of course, Dicks won by double digits.
- Some light reading for the weekend, especially for you numbers geeks. The polling analysis site The Monkey Cage asks two pertinent questions as we hurtle towards Election Day. Question #1: how will the undecided voters break in the 2012 presidential election? Question #2: will they even matter? The answers provided by the analysis are, to say the least, pretty illuminating, and well worth the read.