Senate Polls:
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FL-Sen (PPP): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 50 (45), Connie Mack (R): 42 (41); Obama 49-48 (Romney 48-47).
• MO-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45 (50), Todd Akin (R): 43 (41); Romney 54-41 (50-43).
• MO-Sen (Kiley for McCaskill): Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 53 (52), Todd Akin (R): 39 (38).
• OH-Sen (PPP): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 53 (49), Josh Mandel (R): 42 (44); Obama 51-47 (49-48).
• PA-Sen (GSG/Nat'l Research): Bob Casey (D-inc): 49 (48), Tom Smith (R): 42 (38); Obama 49-43 (50-42).
• PA-Sen (Harstad for DSCC): Bob Casey (D-inc): 52 (49), Tom Smith (R): 40 (41).
• VA-Sen (WaPo): Tim Kaine (D): 51 (51), George Allen (R): 44 (43); Obama 51-47 (52-44).
• WI-Sen (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D): 47 (46), Tommy Thompson (R): 48 (48); Obama-Romney 49-49 (Obama 50-48).
Gubernatorial Polls:
•
MO-Gov (Mason-Dixon): Jay Nixon (D-inc): 48 (48), Dave Spence (R): 42 (39). There are also numbers for LG (GOP incumbent Peter Kinder leads Susan Montee 46-41), AG (Dem incumbent Chris Koster leads Ed Martin 51-37), Treasurer (Dem incumbent Clint Zweifel leads Cole McNary 42-39), and SoS (Republican Shane Schoeller leads Jason Kander 43-40).
• MO-Gov (Kiley for McCaskill): Jay Nixon (D-inc): 55, Dave Spence (R): 33.
• NH-Gov: Maggie Hassan (D): 48 (45), Ovide Lamontagne (R): 44 (43); Obama 49-47 (Romney 49-48).
House Polls:
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CA-07 (PPP for CREDO): Ami Bera (D): 46, Dan Lungren (R-inc): 46.
• FL-18 (PPP for CREDO): Patrick Murphy (D): 48 (42), Allen West (R-inc): 47 (51). (Note: Prior poll conducted for Scripps.)
• IL-08 (PPP for CREDO): Tammy Duckworth (D): 54 (50), Joe Walsh (R-inc): 40 (41). (Note: Prior poll conducted in August.)
• MN-08 (PPP for CREDO): Rick Nolan (D): 48, Chip Cravaack (R-inc): 44.
• NH-01 (PPP for CREDO): Carol Shea-Porter (D): 47 (48), Frank Guinta (R): 48 (47). (Note: Prior poll conducted for PCCC.
7:28 AM PT: TN-04: Why am I not surprised that GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais is a serial violator of his medical ethics?
On the heels of a sex scandal involving a female patient, another woman has acknowledged having a sexual relationship with physician and U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais while she was under his medical care.
The second woman described DesJarlais as "the nicest guy" and said he cooked dinner for her at their first get-together in 2000.
But she also said they smoked marijuana during their relationship and remembered DesJarlais prescribing her pain medication on dates at his home.
"His biggest thing that's completely unethical is him just picking up women while he's a doctor," the woman said in an interview last week. "I mean, seriously, that's his big no-no. ... He's just a hound."
Absurdly, DesJarlais (who, as you know, once exhorted
another mistress/patient to have an abortion) is trying to claim that this "is not a credible story," but the
Chattanooga Times Free Press says that court records from DesJarlais's divorce "confirm that the woman and DesJarlais had an affair." (The paper acknowledges, though, that the stuff about ganja and pain pills "could not be independently verified.") Seriously, if Democrats are to have any chance of pulling off a heroic upset in this seat, someone needs to make a major cash infusion on Eric Stewart's behalf posthaste.
7:43 AM PT: And there we go: House Majority PAC is out with a new ad slamming DesJarlais over his ethical transgressions, which they say is "part of a $180,000 buy" that brings their total outlay in this race to $280,000. The spot doesn't mention this latest revelation, though, which just broke over the weekend.
7:50 AM PT: ND-Sen: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton will be appearing with Heidi Heitkamp in Fargo at 7pm local time on Monday evening. You'll have to click through and sign up for further details if you'd like to attend.
8:07 AM PT: NE-Sen: Well whaddya know. There's now a third recent poll showing a (very) unexpectedly close Senate race in Nebraska. The Omaha World-Herald (once again utilizing local pollster Wiese Research) finds Republican Deb Fischer edging Democrat Bob Kerrey by just a 49-46 margin—much tighter than the 56-40 spread they saw in Fischer's favor in mid-September. (New pollsters Pharos had Fischer up just 48-46, and a Kerrey internal had her ahead 50-45.) Fischer tried to pre-empt the OWH news with a poll of her own (from POS), showing her ahead by a commanding 55-39 margin.
So is it possible the race is actually close? Kerrey's been hammering Fischer hard over a lawsuit her family brought against their neighbors over 104 acres of prime riverfront grazing land; the Fischers argued they were the proper owners, but a court decisively rejected those claims. Kerrey's run ads a responsive ad—one that doesn't strike me as particularly effective.
I tend to be skeptical of the notion that a single issue can transform a race, though it certainly does happen from time to time. It's also believable that Republicans have been inattentive here, figuring Fischer would win in a walk. Indeed, we were not immune to that belief, seeing as we moved this race to Safe R some time ago. But even if Kerrey's path to victory is still slim as can be, it's hard to ignore all this polling, especially the Wiese trendline, so we're switching the contest back to Likely R.
8:29 AM PT: • NM-Sen (Research & Polling): Martin Heinrich (D): 50 (48), Heather Wilson (R): 42 (39); Obama 50-41 (49-39).
• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 51 (52), Josh Mandel (R): 47 (45); Obama-Romney 49-49 (Obama 51-46).
• MN-08 (OnMessage for Cravaack): Rick Nolan (D): 40, Chip Cravaack (R-inc): 50.
8:32 AM PT: Contests: We'll be running our own election prediction contest here at DKE (stay tuned!), but our friends at Anzalone Liszt are conduct their own contest as well. They're offering a pretty hefty cash prize ($1,000!) to the winner, so click through and make your best guesses!
8:36 AM PT: MD-06: Oh, Roscoe:
"This isn't the politically correct thing to say, but when we drove the mother out of the home into the workplace and replaced her with the television set, that was not a good thing."
That's octogenarian GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, of course.
8:47 AM PT: NE-02: Weise Research's poll of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District finds GOP Rep. Lee Terry slipping badly in this under-the-radar race, clinging to a 47-43 lead over Democrat John Ewing. That's considerably tighter than the 52-39 spread they saw a month ago, and it confirms a recent DCCC internal robopoll that put Terry up just 48-44. Interestingly, Ewing's gains come as Obama's fortunes have started to fade in NE-02: The Omaha World-Herald also tested the presidential race, finding Romney ahead 49-44, up from a 44-44 tie in September. Ewing will very likely need some last-minute outside help to pull off the upset, but after spending almost $2 million, Terry only had a $206K to $115K cash advantage as of Oct. 17.
8:58 AM PT: CA-36: GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack continues to feel the heat over her poor relations with the Indian tribes in her district. The Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians (which hasn't made an endorsement in the race) fired back with their second statement in 10 days, after Bono Mack accused them of having been "pushed by the Democrats" into issuing a first statement in support of Democrat Raul Ruiz in the wake of her attacks on him. Said the tribe:
"The Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians has always worked hard to maintain a solid, positive relationship with Representative Mary Bono Mack, because we felt that such a relationship was not only important for members of the tribe, but for the entire community.
"Until recently, we thought that respect was mutual. That is why it was all the more troubling that through her words and the actions of her campaign, she chose to disrespect the Native American community in her attacks against Raul Ruiz.
"Instead of apologizing for her insensitive comments and unacceptable campaign behavior, as we hoped she would, Congresswoman Bono Mack is claiming that our concerns are politically motivated."
Mack also
seems to have issues with, well, women, too:
Let me bring up one example: the Lilly Ledbetter Act, you're going to hear this a lot again, especially in the next presidential debate. Is anyone a small business owner? Lilly Ledbetter Act—equal pay for equal work. Protecting our right to the 1964 and 1965 Civil Rights Act. What this act does is that it allows people to go back 20 years to sue their employer if they realized that they did not earn equal pay for equal work.
I tell these small business owners, how would you like to defend a lawsuit from 20 years ago, and defend yourself against an allegation, whether right or wrong? This means that you are going to have to settle out of court because you can't afford to go all the way with these people. The War on Women is rhetoric, it is completely driven by rhetoric, and this is a perfect example. The War on Women is BS, don't buy it. Help us fight the fight.
9:06 AM PT: AZ-02: Ah, I'm guessing Republican Martha McSally probably shouldn't have said this:
"I resemble Gabby Giffords more than the man who worked for her, although I am grateful for his service."
Giffords' husband, Mark Kelly, reacted with exactly the kind of furor you'd expect, sending an email to Rep. Ron Barber's list of supporters titled "I cannot believe this." McSally, defensive, responded that Barber "is so desperate that Martha can't even compliment Gabby Giffords for her leadership without being viciously attacked." Right, that's all you were doing—complimenting Gabby Giffords.
9:13 AM PT: And here's a copy of Cravaack's actual polling memo, which I was hoping to see. Why? Because he has Romney up 50-44, in a district Obama won 53-45. That would be a 14-point drop for the POTUS, which I find hard to believe.
9:46 AM PT: AZ-Sen: If nothing else, Rich Carmona ruined John Kyl and John McCain's weekends. Arizona's two Republican senators have cut a new ad, responding to one Carmona just released that features footage of the two praising him when he was nominated to serve as Surgeon General. Now, of course, Kyl would probably like to say his prior remarks about Carmona were "not intended to be a factual statement." A copy of the spot is not available yet, but according to Politico, here's a key part:
"Richard Carmona's latest ad is the most shameful of all—implying Jon and I support him. We don't," McCain says in the ad, appearing side by side with Kyl. "It isn't just that he supports the Obama agenda; his ads prove Carmona lacks integrity."
And so all those nice things McCain and Kyl said about Carmona a decade ago—since those statements are all obviously false (according to them), doesn't that mean they lacked integrity by speaking them aloud in the first place? Sorry, guys, but you are damned either way.
9:57 AM PT: • CT-Sen (Rasmussen): Chris Murphy (D): 51 (48), Linda McMahon (R): 45 (47).
• FL-Sen (Rasmussen): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (48), Connie Mack (R): 46 (43); Romney 50-48 (51-46).
• FL-Sen (VSS): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49, Connie Mack (R): 44; Romney 51-46.
• MA-Sen (UNH): Elizabeth Warren (D): 47 (43), Scott Brown (R-inc): 47 (38). Please do not freak out about this poll. I've been telling you for years how shoddy UNH's work is. Here's a great recent example: Look at their trendlines in the NH-01 congressional race. In the last month alone, they've gone from showing Democrat Carol Shea-Porter up 9, then down 10 to GOP Rep. Frank Guinta, and now down 3. That's an absurd gyration, and it just shows you they have no quality control. But if that's not sufficient, then let me just say this: If the race really is tied at 47 apiece, how could that be good news for Scott Brown in a state as blue as Massachusetts?
10:28 AM PT (David Jarman): San Diego mayor: Some more support for the idea that the San Diego mayoral race has tightened in the closing weeks comes from Probolsky Research, on behalf of someone called SD Metro: they find the race a 41-41 tie between Dem Rep. Bob Filner and Republican city councilor Carl DeMaio. (Bear in mind, though, that Probolsky is a firm that does work for Republican candidates, including the odd Gary DeLong polling fiasco from this summer.)
10:31 AM PT (David Jarman): Polltopia: It's the obligatory biannual takedown of Rasmussen Reports by professor Alan Abramowitz! His analysis of Rasmussen's state-level polling finds them putting out results that are three points more Republican than the overall average, ranging from +1 in Nevada to +5 in Colorado.
11:09 AM PT (David Jarman): MD ballot: A Baltimore Sun poll, taken by OpinionWorks, finds that Maryland's presidential and Senate campaigns are the furthest thing from competitive (Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 55-36, and Ben Cardin leads Dan Bongino and independent Rob Sobhani 50-24-14). The real meat in Maryland is in the ballot measures, starting with their same-sex marriage proposal, which the Sun finds is now failing 47-46. That's quite the reversal from their previous poll last month, where it was passing 49-39; they attribute that to a new influx in advertising from the Maryland Marriage Alliance, targeted toward African-American voters (who in this poll oppose same-sex marriage 50-42). However, the poll finds the state's congressional redistricting map poised to survive the challenge to it, 36-33; the state-level DREAM Act is also passing, 47-45.
11:11 AM PT: • HI-Sen (Ward Research): Mazie Hirono (D): 57 (58), Linda Lingle (R): 35 (39).
• NH-Gov (Rasmussen): Maggie Hassan (D): 46 (46), Ovide Lamontagne (R): 48 (48); Romney 50-48 (50-49).
• NY-19 (POS for Gibson): Julian Schreibman (D): 39 (39), Chris Gibson (R-inc): 49 (50). No presidential toplines are provided. Siena College will have a new poll of this race on Tuesday.
11:17 AM PT (David Jarman): MD-06: This is unexpected, as somewhere in late summer, Roscoe Bartlett overtook Joe Walsh as the uniform consensus most-likely-House-Republican-incumbent-to-lose. The Baltimore Sun polled the district via OpinionWorks and found the rust-covered Bartlett still losing, but only by one point (42-41) to Dem John Delaney. Did something happen to tighten up this race, or has it always been close, and just not polled frequently enough for us to know that? Or... third option... maybe it's just a screwy sample: the presidential toplines find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 45-42 in this district specifically reconfigured be a Dem-leaning district, which Obama won 56-42 in 2008.
11:43 AM PT (David Jarman): CA-30: The Dem-on-Dem battle in the solidly-blue 30th may well pivot on who can do a better job of appealing to the district's few Republicans, who may provide the decisive vote here. Howard Berman -- who brought fewer of his constituents to the battle with him than Brad Sherman, and has been at a disadvantage in all the polls so far -- has been working that angle for quite a while now, touting endorsements from various California House GOPers. But now Brad Sherman is getting in on the act in a big way, sending around a mailer saying "If you love these politicians, then vote for Howard Berman," and placing Howard's head with those of liberal bogeymen Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters, and Barney Frank, all of whom have endorsed Berman. The story doesn't mention whether the mailer is going out to the whole San Fernando Valley, or just targeted to Republican households.
11:50 AM PT (David Jarman): MT-Sen: Ah, here's some quality ratfucking, in a race where it absolutely makes sense. You've probably noticed in Montana Senate race polls that the presence of Libertarian candidate Dan Cox -- who seems to siphon off mostly Republican votes -- is what's giving Jon Tester a paper-thin edge here. It looks like the Montana Hunters and Anglers Leadership Fund -- a PAC that, despite its macho-sounding name, is funded by the League of Conservation Voters, and has been active in helping Tester so far -- is putting some real money behind Cox. They're spending $500K (a princely sum in inexpensive Montana) for a TV ad boosting Cox. The paranoid-sounding ad, focused on Dept. of Homeland Security surveillance of federal lands, touts Cox as the "real conservative" in the race.
11:56 AM PT (David Jarman): I'll bet Scott DesJarlais thought he wouldn't have to be releasing internal polls at this point in the race, but he did manage to scrape one up to try and counter the sense that this has turned into a major race. He's out with an internal from Republican pollster POS, which gives him a 49-36 lead over Dem opponent Eric Stewart. The polling dates were Oct. 22-23, so that's after the initial round of mistress allegations surfaced. (This is in response to a Stewart poll from last week putting Stewart down only 49-44.)
12:10 PM PT: The Live Digest continues here.