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12:13 PM PT (David Jarman): RI-01: This would probably explain why the NRCC and DCCC piled back into the race in Rhode Island's 1st district, which had seemed to be winding down after Dem incumbent David Cicilline showed some substantial leads in a string of DCCC polls: GOP opponent Brendan Doherty is claiming the lead in an internal from OnMessage, 45-39 (with 6 for indie David Vogel). Here's the reality check, though: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 55-34 in the district. That sounds like a lot, right (Roll Call's Joshua Miller says it "underscores the district's Democratic leanings")? Well, this district, as reconfigured for 2012, went 67-32 for Obama, so we're actually looking at a very GOP-friendly sample here.
12:19 PM PT (David Jarman): PA-St. Sen.: Another Dem internal poll of a state Senate race in Pennsylvania shows the Dems on track to pick up another seat in that body, in SD-37, a GOP-held open seat in Pittsburgh's southern suburbs. 39th St. Strategies finds Dem state Rep. Matt Smith leading D. Raja 53-40. Factor in SD-49, where the Dem is posting even bigger leads, and that's a two-seat pickup, though short of the five Dems would need to tie the chamber.
12:31 PM PT: AZ-Sen: The Club for Growth is tossing in $320K, and some group called American Commitment is coming in with $528K. And Now or Never PAC, which seems to be shifting gears away from IL-08, is the big kahuna with a $1 million buy. All of these purchases are aimed at stopping Democrat Rich Carmona.
1:06 PM PT: DSCC, NRSC: Senate Dems outraised Republicans during the pre-general reporting period (Oct. 1-17), just like their House counterparts did. The DSCC pulled in $7.3 million compared with $6 mil for the NRSC.
1:21 PM PT: VA-Sen: Majority PAC and the LCV are going up with an $800K final-week buy targeting Republican George Allen, with this ad about tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas.
1:33 PM PT: DCCC: The D-Trip filed a $7.5 million IE report on Monday, but this time, Greg Giroux has done us all a wonderful favor and organized the entire buy into a helpful race-by-race chart. Note that a few days earlier, the DCCC also reported a separate $1.3 million in expenditures.
1:45 PM PT: NRCC: The NRCC, meanwhile, has $6.6 million in new buys, all available at the link.
2:01 PM PT (David Jarman): IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12, IL-13, IL-17: We Ask America (polling arm of the conservative-leaning Illinois Manufacturers' Association) has one more batch of polls of all the competitive House races in Illinois. I doubt you put much stock in them to begin with, but now they've taken the strange step of not allowing anyone to declare themselves 'undecided,' so head-to-heads add up to 100%. At any rate, we've now got Tammy Duckworth (D) leading Joe Walsh (R) 55-45 in the 8th, Bob Dold (R) leading Brad Schneider (R) 54-46 in the 10th, a 50-50 tie between Bill Foster (D) and Judy Biggert (R) in the 11th, Bill Enyart (D) leading Jason Plummer (R) and a Green candidate 51-46-4 in the 12th, Rodney Davis (R) leading David Gill (D) and an indie 50-45-4 in the 13th, and Bobby Schilling (R) leading Cheri Bustos (D) 52-48 in the 17th.
2:26 PM PT: And, right like that, House Majority PAC has decided to jump in on Ewing's behalf—albeit with a small $30K buy. Their spot is a pretty generic compare-and-contrast between Ewing and Terry.
4:21 PM PT: • IN-Sen (Pharos): Joe Donnelly (D): 47 (46), Richard Mourdock: 46 (46); Romney 55-42 (51-38).
• MT-Sen (Pharos): Jon Tester (D-inc): 48 (48), Denny Rehberg (R): 47 (46); Romney 50-43 (47-41).
• ND-Sen (Pharos): Heidi Heitkamp (D): 50 (49), Rick Berg (R): 48 (48); Romney 55-38 (49-39).
• NE-Sen (Pharos): Bob Kerrey (D): 47 (46), Deb Fischer (R): 50 (48); Romney 58-39 (51-41).
• OH-Sen (Pharos): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 50 (52), Josh Mandel (R): 43 (41); Obama 49-46 (50-45).
4:22 PM PT: Well, well, well. Look who's showing up at the last second to bail out Deb Fischer: That's right, Karl Rove's American Crossroads. There's no word on the size of the buy as yet, but according to The Hotline, Crossroads "is going on the air in Nebraska for the final week of the Senate campaign."
4:37 PM PT: NV-Sen (Grove for PNA): Shelley Berkley (D): 43, Dean Heller (R): 44; Obama 49-43.
4:40 PM PT: • MT-Gov (Pharos): Steve Bullock (D): 47 (47), Rick Hill (R): 44 (45).
• MT-AL (Pharos): Steve Daines (R): 52 (47), Kim Gillan (D): 45 (41).
• ND-AL (Pharos): Pam Gulleson (D): 55, Kevin Cramer (R): 41.
4:53 PM PT: FL-18: The House Majority PAC is upping its FL-18 buy on behalf of Democrat Patrick Murphy by $400K, bringing their total outlay to $1.9 million. They have two new ads targeting GOP Rep. Allen West, both of which are available at the link.