Public Policy Polling released three polls this evening, all of them bearing good news for the home team. But it's even better than that. In PPP's last 8 swing state polls, in 8 different states, Team Obama has gained over their previous poll.
Same state, same polling organization, same polling methodology, 8 straight increases. Those increases, by the way, range from 1 to 4 points and an average of 2.4 points. In any one case you could explain the increase by random fluctuation. But 8 straight in 8 different states? What are the odds?
If you had a coin with Obama on one side and Romney on the other, what are the odds it would come up Obama 8 straight times? That would be 0.5 to power of 8 or less than 1%. To be exact, 0.39%.
It's not random. Here are the details:
Oct. 28, Ohio 51-47 Obama (from 49-48 a week prior)
Oct. 28, Florida 49-48 Obama (from 48-49 Romney two weeks ago)
Oct. 28, NH 49-47 Obama (from 48-49 Romney last week)
Oct. 25, CO 51-47 Obama (from 50-47 last week)
Oct. 25, NC 48-48 Obama (from 47-49 a week and a half prior)
Oct. 25, IA 49-47 Obama (from 49-48 a week ago)
Oct. 25, WI 51-45 Obama (from 49-47 three weeks prior)
Oct. 25, VA 51-46 Obama (from 49-47 last week)
Pretty stunning really.
Now, why do the swing states look good for Obama but the national polls are tied at best? For me, it's not a mystery. The swing states have been inundated with TV ads for 6 months and the other states have not. Absent any TV ads anywhere, Romney would be winning due to a sluggish economy mostly. But the Obama ads, especially in the summer have been devastating to Romney. He was simply disqualified in a lot of swing states voters' minds before the conventions and debates ever started. If the Obama folks blanketed those ads coast to coast you'd be seeing a national poll lead. But, as you would expect from Obama/Axelrod/Messina and company, resources are being targeted exactly where they are needed and not where they would be superfluous or inefficient.