State Sen. Steve Horsford
Here's what
he says:
PRESIDENT: I know the Romney folks and some RNC operatives believe they can still win, despite trailing by nearly 50,000 votes in early voting. But they need everything to break right – President Obama hemorrhages Democrats and independents vote in huge numbers for Romney, two things I do not see happening. It would be very difficult for Obama to lose Nevada, especially because I think more than two-thirds of the vote is in, so whatever turnout advantage the GOP has on Tuesday won’t be enough. Obama, 50 percent; Romney, 46 percent; others and “none of the above,” 4 percent.
U.S SENATE: Two years ago, I was pretty sure Reid was going to win, despite what the public polls said. This year, I have been pretty sure Heller would win, and the public polls have backed that up. But a few weeks ago, the cockiness of Team Heller seemed to dissipate as his advisers realized Romney was a drag and Obama might drag Rep. Shelley Berkley to victory. I would not be surprised to see her win now – I have seen data that backs that up. There may even be a recount – it is so close. (Trivia: Who presided over the last recount in a U.S. Senate race here? A secretary of state named….Dean Heller. 1998. Harry Reid and John Ensign. Get ready, Ross Miller.) I really think Berkley was cut at the end by the Heller ads on house-flipping and the Italy trip – the latter is obvious because her last spot was a defense against it. The seminal question is this: Can the Democratic machine save a congresswoman who has been caricatured as an unlikable and corrupt elected official and whose image is badly tarnished? My answer (and I am not confident in saying this): Almost. Heller, 49 percent; Berkley, 48 percent; others and none of the above, 3 percent. (Have I mentioned it could go either way?)
CD3: I always thought Rep. Joe Heck was the favorite here, but I also did not predict Speaker John Oceguera would seem so ill-equipped for a campaign at this level. Although he did better in his final “Ralston Reports” debate, Oceguera seemed bereft of knowledge of federal issues (unless he had a briefing book in front of him), seemed determined to simply mouth DNC talking points and seemed willing to use the most execrable attacks on Heck. If this were 2008, Oceguera might still win despite it all. It ain’t 2008. Heck, 53 percent; Oceguera, 45 percent; others, 2 percent.
CD4: Danny Tarkanian, in his fourth bid for office, is a better candidate than in his previous three. Steven Horsford, who has suffered from not being well known and some career missteps, has made a 13-point district into a close race. Democrats essentially went into panic mode a few weeks back when they saw the contest slipping away to Tark. Horsford was bleeding from the base, which had been introduced to him quite negatively, mostly thanks to the National Republican Congressional Committee. I think the Democratic machine has righted the ship in the nick of time. Horsford, 49 percent; Tarkanian, 47 percent; others, 4 percent.
Ralston is so iffy about Heller vs. Berkley, so like him I'm going to have to think the nod will go to Heller. There is something going on in the electorate that is causing a sure vote for Obama to resist bringing Berkley along. Reid's vaunted machine is definitely helping her, but she's got to pull her own weight. Not to mention, Heller has run a pretty good campaign keeping Berkley on the defensive over ethics. But I think it is more than that. My guess is Berkley isn't a good fit statewide and is having trouble holding her own in Reno. You can't just run up the score in Vegas and win Nevada. You gotta hold your own everywhere else. I also like the call for Steve Horsford in Nevada 04, a race I've been watching closely.
I've got my own reasons, but like always I defer to Ralston's unsurpased judgment on Nevada politics and agree with his call.