Skip to main content

Still dumb as a bag of rocks and not nearly as useful.
Now that I'm tuning in to cable news, I've noticed the same ridiculous notions coming from the mouths of the Bizarro Illuminati we call the Washington media establishment. They just can't understand how Obama can be winning the election and losing the independent vote.

They tell us always "we must have the independent vote!" As if it is the holy grail of elections. And rest assured: independent always means middle aged, middle class, white, suburban men in the MidWest. No matter what the election, they are the ones who must be coveted the most.

But the Obama Campaign has thankfully learned that to win independents one must appeal to one's base. Counter intuitive to the Washington cluster strokers, I know. But it is true.

Anyone who has truly studied indies, like me, knows these three things:

1. Only a third are moderates. Most moderates are Democrats.

2. Only about ten percent are truly swing voters. Most have definite leans and vote the lean consistently.

3. Indies are the least reliable voting block in terms of turnout.

So pundits, like Halperin, can't wrap their heads around why self identified indies are going for Romney and Obama is still winning. The answer is simple: those Romney indies are right leaning Republicans who don't want to be identified as Republicans. This is why the polls keep getting Dem +6 or Dem +8. It is because Democrats are mostly proud to be Democrats and Republicans don't want the stench of George W. Bush on their tunics. They claim to be independent, but they aren't. They're closet partisans:

It is highly unlikely that folks who lean toward either party, and remember the vast majority of independents lean, are going to swing their votes to and fro between the parties. What is likely, however, is that many independents may not be as motivated to vote as strong or weak partisans. To solve this problem, the parties need to motivate them to vote. Since the matrix of issues that motivate independents will more or less coincide with those issues that motivate party partisans, political strategists should do something counter-intuitive to the conventional wisdom: To win independents, motivate your base.
You're welcome.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site