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November 5th – 2012 Elections Final Prediction!

Presidential:

So here we are.  Finally, after an exhausting season of polls, debates, endless ads, and ruthless politicking on both sides, we have reached Election Eve.  This is the day where I lay down my final predictions, predictions that I will look back on years later and say one of two things…that either I was a smart young political pundit, or a buffoon.  Let’s not waste any time.

Barack Obama is going to win the presidential election, of that I am certain.  The only question how big an electoral vote victory will it be.  Based on the polling data, I think he has Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, and Oregon strongly in the bag.  That along with the Likely and Safe D states gives Obama 253 EVs.  From there, Obama is ahead in Ohio by 4% in my aggregate, just outside the Lean D zone.  Colorado is also a 4% Obama lead.  Ohio Obama has led since Day 1, but Colorado has seen a major Obama surge here at the end.  Those two states give Obama 280 EV.

From there, New Hampshire and Iowa is a 3% aggregate advantage.  Those get Obama to 290 EV.  The last state I expect to go blue is Virginia, where the polling disparity has been stark from pollster to pollster, but it is enough to give Obama a 2% aggregate lead.  That will get Obama 303 electoral votes and re-election.  

The closest state Romney will win is Florida, followed closely by North Carolina.  I really agonized over Florida.  It’s so close.  I want so desperately to believe PPP and the other democratic pollsters, but according to my model Romney leads by 1%.  If there’s one state I think I’m most likely to get wrong it’s probably Florida.  Romney holds a 2% aggregate lead in North Carolina.  That’s pretty much Obama’s ceiling, at 347 EVs, I just can’t see him winning anything else unless he were to pull out a win in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district.  Even that I feel is a longshot.  

After North Carolina, you’re into Lean R territory, with Arizona and Georgia showing a 7% aggregate lead for Romney, and Missouri, Montana, and Indiana all showing an 8% lead for the republican.  If any of these states end up somehow going blue, you’ll know that we’ve had a dream night.

Electoral vote distribution:

Safe D – VT, MA, RI, NY, DE, MD, DC, IL, CA, HI – 142 EV
Likely D – ME, CT, NJ, WA – 37 EV
Lean D – PA, MI, WI, MN, NM, NV, OR – 74 EV
Toss Up/Tilt D – NH, VA, OH, IA, CO – 50 EV
Toss Up/Tilt R – NC, FL – 44 EV
Lean R – GA, IN, MO, MT, AZ – 51 EV
Likely R – SC, ND, SD – 15 EV
Safe R – WV, KY, TN, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, WY, ID, UT, AK – 125 EV

Total Obama EV - 303
Total Romney EV – 235

The Map:

[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG]

Popular Vote Projection:
National – Obama 50.29%, Romney 48.29%
DC – Obama 91-8
Hawaii – Obama 66-33
Vermont – Obama 65-34
New York – Obama 62-37
Rhode Island – Obama 61-37
Maryland – Obama 60-39
Illinois – Obama 59-40
Delaware – Obama 59-40
Massachusetts – Obama 59-40
California – Obama 57-42
Washington – Obama 56-42
Connecticut – Obama 56-43
New Jersey – Obama 55-43
Maine – Obama 55-43
New Mexico – Obama 54-45
Minnesota – Obama 53-45
Oregon – Obama 53-46
Michigan – Obama 52-46
Pennsylvania – Obama 52-46
Nevada – Obama 52-47
Wisconsin – Obama 52-47
Ohio – Obama 51-47
Colorado – Obama 51-47
New Hampshire – Obama 51-48
Iowa – Obama 51-48
Virginia – Obama 50-48
Florida – Romney 50-49
North Carolina – Romney 50-48
Arizona – Romney 53-46
Georgia – Romney 53-46
Montana – Romney 53-45
Missouri – Romney 53-45
Indiana – Romney 53-45
South Carolina – Romney 55-44
South Dakota – Romney 56-43
North Dakota – Romney 56-43
Nebraska – Romney 57-42
Kansas – Romney 57-42
Mississippi – Romney 57-41
Louisiana – Romney 57-41
Tennessee – Romney 58-41
Texas – Romney 58-40
Alaska – Romney 58-40
Kentucky – Romney 59-40
West Virginia – Romney 60-39
Arkansas – Romney 61-38
Alabama – Romney 63-36
Oklahoma – Romney 64-35
Wyoming – Romney 66-33
Idaho – Romney 66-33
Utah – Romney 70-29

Senate:

The race for control of the Senate ended weeks ago.  Now the only suspense is whether or not the democrats can gain seats, and if so, how many.  

The republicans have 37 seats not up for re-election to the democrats’ 30, but when noncompetitive seats are factored in, both sides have 42 seats guaranteed to return to congress.  From there, you can put Michigan and Pennsylvania into the democrats’ column, as Stabenow and Casey have led since Day 1.  New Mexico and Florida are pretty much in the same boat although to a lesser extent.  Those two races form the upper portion of the Lean D zone.  In that zone include 5 other races.  

2 of those races are in the northeast, where Scott Brown and Linda McMahon ran furiously against the democratic PVI of their states.  Elizabeth Warren and Chris Murphy will win though, they lead by 6% and 5% in the aggregate, respectively.  Also ahead by 6% is Sherrod Brown, who had to sweat out a major barrage of 3rd party ad spending but will triumph over Josh Mandel.  The other two races in the Lean D category are unforced errors by Team Red.  In Missouri and Indiana, Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock saw their races come undone due to inflammatory comments about rape, and it appears that they are headed to defeat against Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly.  If the democrats won no other seats besides these, they would win 51 seats and keep the majority.  I absolutely cannot see Team Red exceeding this total.

On the flip side in the Lean R column, you have two races.  In Nebraska, Deb Fischer has seen a big lead evaporate against former senator Bob Kerrey, but more than likely she will hang on and win.  She leads by 7% in the aggregate, though I have to exercise caution as there hasn’t been much polling of the race.  In Arizona, for a time it appeared that former surgeon general Richard Carmona had a real chance at victory, but Jeff Flake has re-asserted himself late in the game and now holds a 5% aggregate lead.  With these two races in tow, that gives Team Red at least 44 seats.

That brings us to the toss-up zone, where two races, Virginia and Wisconsin, are clearly tilting toward the democrats.  In Virginia, Tim Kaine leads George Allen by 4% in the aggregate, and in Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson by 3%.  If you assume these two fall into the blue column, that gives the democrats 53 seats to the republicans’ 44.  

At last, you have the 3 virtually pure toss-ups, North Dakota, Montana, and Nevada.  Nevada is the weird one of this bunch, because if you believe the polls, you’d be resigned into thinking that republican Dean Heller will easily defeat democrat Shelley Berkley.  However, as we all know, pollsters in Nevada always chronically underestimate democratic performance.  The only pollster to correctly pick Harry Reid over Sharron Angle in 2010 was Mellman.  The only pollster that has Berkley winning?  Mellman.  Fool me once, it’s your fault.  Fool me twice, it’s mine.  But I’m going to trust the polling aggregate and give Heller a 50-48 victory.  I swear though, if there’s one race I fear I’m going to get wrong it is this one.      

In Montana, it has been razor tight from the beginning.  At this point it comes down to whom do you trust in the polling world.  I’ll take PPP over Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon please.  Just like in 2006, Tester pulls out a cliff-hanger of a race and wins by 1%.  That leaves us with North Dakota, the one chronically underpolled and forgotten contest.  This is a red state, but one race in which you have a huge gap in candidate quality.  Rick Berg is an unpopular GOP representative, while democrat Heidi Heitkamp is an extremely well liked former attorney general.  The fact that Berg has never been able to break out of the 40s or even get into the lead consistently is a big tell.  Maybe this is the one race where I’m going heart over brain, but I like Heitkamp to win by 1%.  Besides, its not like we’ve got enough data for me to trust my brain anyway.

To sum it all up, the democrats win 55 Senate seats, a gain of 2 seats, leaving the GOP with 45.  The democrats pick up Massachusetts, Maine, and Indiana, dropping only Nebraska.

Seat Breakdown –

Democrats – 30 seats not up for re-election
Safe D – ME, VT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, WV, MN, CA, WA, HI – 12 seats
Likely D – MI, PA – 2 seats
Lean D – MA, CT, FL, OH, IN, MO, NM – 7 seats
Toss Up/Tilt D – VA, WI, ND, MT, – 4 seats
Toss Up/Tilt R – NV – 2 seats
Lean R – NE, AZ – 2 seats
Likely R –
Safe R – TN, MS, TX, WY, UT – 5 seats
Republicans – 37 seats not up for re-election

Democratic Pickups – ME, MA, IN
Republican Pickups – NE
New Senate Partisan Breakdown – 55 democrats, 45 republicans
Swing – Democrats +2

The Map:

[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG]

Projected vote totals for competitive races:
42 Dem seats safe (30 not up + ME, VT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, WV, MN, WA, CA, HI)
Michigan – Stabenow 56 – Hoekstra 43
Pennsylvania – Casey 54 – Smith 44
Florida – Nelson 53 – Mack 45
New Mexico – Heinrich 53 – Wilson 45
Missouri – McCaskill 53 – Akin 45
Indiana – Donnelly 53 – Mourdock 46
Ohio – Brown 52 – Mandel 46
Massachusetts – Warren 52 – Brown 47
Connecticut – Murphy 52 – McMahon 47
Virginia – Kaine 51 – Allen 47
Wisconsin – Baldwin 51 – Thompson 48
North Dakota – Heitkamp 50 – Berg 49
Montana – Tester 50 – Rehberg 49
Nevada – Heller 50 – Berkley 48
Arizona – Flake 52 – Carmona 47
Nebraska – Fischer 53 – Kerrey 46
42 GOP seats safe (37 not up + TN, MS, WY, UT, TX)

House:

There seems to be two different schools of thought as far as the house race is concerned.  The first school of thought is that the power of incumbency will reign, and the democrats will only gain a few seats, maybe even lose a couple.  The second school of thought is that the national ballot will track close to individual district polls and the Obama-Romney vote share, which would result in a gain for Dems, but not enough to take back the majority.  That’s where I stand.  My final projection sees a D+2 national generic ballot, right in line with the presidential contest.  That is slightly better for Dems than the pollster.com regression shows.  Pollster shows an Even electorate, which would indicate that House republicans would run in front of Romney (and WAY ahead of Senate republicans).  I think there’s going to be a little more of a coattail effect from the top of the ticket than polls are showing, and individual district polls generally bear that out.  

I’m a little scared though, because I made my predictions in 2010 based largely on individual district numbers and I got burned.  The good news is that we’re only talking about a very small difference between Obama-Romney / individual district aggregates and the national generic ballot average, going from D+2 to E.  If the national vote does come out even, you’re probably only talking about a few seats being lost, not the 21 seat difference between my final projections in 2010 (R+43) and what really happened (R+64).  

In the end, I project that the democrats will gain a total of 15 seats, which leaves a total of 227 republicans and 208 democrats in the House.  The democrats would need an additional 10 in order to take over the majority.  My 5 closest races to project this year were MI-11, FL-2, IA-4, NY-27, and FL-10, the former 3 going into the blue column and the latter 2 going red.  Other races I project that will be within 2 points or less include CO-6, RI-1, TX-23, IL-17, CA-36, IN-8, WI-7, and CO-3.  These are a smattering of seats that you will need to watch very closely on election night.  If they’re all falling one direction or the other, it’s a clear sign that one side or the other is having a great night.  

If you’re hearing about democrats losing seats like NY-24, CT-5, MI-1, IL-10, MN-8, AZ-9, or CA-26, it’s time to start drinking.

If you’re hearing about democrats winning seats like NY-19, WI-8, IA-3, MT-1, NV-3, CA-21, or PA-6, it’s time to start doing the happy dance, because the majority might be ours.

Projected 2-party vote share – 51.0% democratic, 49.0% republican
Battleground PVI – R+1.1 (the PVI of all 91 competitive districts on the equal area map)
Battleground 2-party vote share – 50.0% democratic, 50.0% republican
New House Partisan Breakdown – 227 republicans, 208 democrats
Swing – Democrats +15

The Equal Area Map:

[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG]

Projected Vote Totals for Competitive Seats: (candidate listed first wins)
158 Safe Democratic Seats
IL-8 – Duckworth 57 – Walsh 43
HI-1 – Hanabusa 57 – Djou 43
CA-47 – Lowenthal 56 – DeLong 44
MD-6 - Delany 56 – Bartlett 44
IA-2 – Loebsack 56 – Archer 44
AZ-2 – Barber 56 – McSally 44
CA-3 – Garamendi 55 – Vann 45
FL-9 – Grayson 55 – Long 45
FL-22 – Frankel 55 – Hasner 45
NY-25 – Slaughter 55 – Brooks 45
CA-9 – McNerney 55 – Gill 45
FL-26 – Garcia 55 – Rivera 45
CA-41 – Takano 54 – Tavaglione 46
MN-8 – Nolan 54 – Cravaack 46
CO-7 – Perlmutter 54 – Coors 46
IL-13 – Gill 54 – Davis 46
NH-2 – Kuster 54 – Bass 46
NY-1 – Bishop 54 – Altschuler 46
IL-10 – Schneider 54 – Dold 46
WA-1 – Delbene 53 – Koster 47
CA-26 – Brownley 53 – Strickland 47
IL-11 – Foster 53 – Biggert 47
KY-6 – Chandler 53 – Barr 47
MI-1 – McDowell 53 – Benishek 47
OH-16 – Sutton 53 – Renacci 47
NY-24 – Maffei 53 – Buerkle 47
PA-12 – Critz 53 – Rothfus 47
AZ-9 – Sinema 53 – Parker 47
CA-24 – Capps 53 – Maldonado 47
CT-5 – Esty 53 – Roraback 47
GA-12 – Barrow 53 – Anderson 47
NC-7 – McIntyre 53 – Rouzer 47
OH-6 – Wilson 52 – Johnson 48
CA-7 – Bera 52 – Lungren 48
IL-12 – Enyart 52 – Plummer 48
---------------------------------------------- current House Breakdown (242R, 193D)
AZ-1 – Kirkpatrick 52 – Paton 48
NH-1 – Shea-Porter 52 – Guinta 48
CO-6 – Mikloski 51 – Coffman 49
NV-4 – Horsford 51 – Tarkanian 49
RI-1 – Cicilline 51 – Doherty 49
TX-23 – Gallego 51 – Canseco 49
CA-52 – Peters 51 – Bilbray 49
FL-18 – Murphy 51 – West 49
IL-17 – Bustos 51 – Schilling 49
CA-36 – Ruiz 51 – Bono-Mack 49
IN-2 – Mullen 51 – Walorski 49
NY-21 – Owens 51 – Doheny 49
MI-11 – Taj 50 – Bentivolio 50
FL-2 – Lawson 50 – Southerland 50
IA-4 – Vilsack 50 – King 50
------------------------------------------------- prediction line (227 R, 208 D)
NY-27 – Collins 50 – Hochul 50
FL-10 – Webster 50 – Deming 50
MI-3 – Amash 51 – Pestka 49
WI-7 – Duffy 51 – Kreitlow 49
IN-8 – Bucshon 51 – Crooks 49
CA-10 – Denham 51 – Hernandez 49
CO-3 – Tipton 51 – Pace 49
IA-3 – Latham 52 – Boswell 48
CA-21 – Valadao 52 – Hernandez 48
NE-2 – Terry 52 – Ewing 48
----------------------------------------------------- line of majority control (218D, 217 R)
NY-19 – Gibson 52 – Schreibman 48
TX-14 – Weber 52 – Lampson 48
NJ-3 – Runyan 52 – Adler 48
MA-6 – Tisei 53 – Tierney 47
NY-18 – Hayworth 53 – Maloney 47
PA-8 – Fitzpatrick 53 – Boockvar 47
WI-8 – Ribble 53 – Wall 47
SD-1 – Noem 53 – Varilek 47
MT-1 – Daines 53 – Gillan 47
MN-6 – Bachmann 54 – Graves 46
NY-23 – Reed 54 – Shinigawa 46
NV-3 – Heck 54 – Oceguera 46
FL-13 – Young 54 – Ehrlich 46
MI-6 – Upton 54 – O’Brien 46
NC-8 – Hudson 54 – Kissell 46
PA-6 – Gerlach 54 – Trivedi 46
TN-4 – Desjarlais 54 – Stewart 46
MN-2 – Kline 54 – Obermueller 46
UT-4 – Love 56 – Matheson 44
OH-7 – Gibbs 56 – Healy-Abrams 44
FL-16 – Buchanan 56 – Fitzgerald 44
NY-11 – Grimm 56 – Murphy 44
CA-25 – McKeon 56 – Rogers 44
VA-5 – Hurt 56 – Douglass 44
ND-1 – Cramer 56 – Gulleson 44
MI-7 – Walberg 57 – Haskell 43
PA-7 – Meehan 57 – Badey 43
IN-9 – Young 57 – Yoder 43
VA-2 – Rigell 57 – Hirschbiel 43
WI-1 – Ryan 57 – Zerban 43
WA-3 – Herrera 57 – Haugen 43
186 Safe Republican Seats

Bonus Prediction! – Ohio By County

The Map:  [IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG]

As I did 4 years ago, I wanted to break into Ohio in depth and give a prediction on how each county would vote.  

Here my methodology is pretty simple, I took the 2-party vote from 2008, and then adjusted each county’s total vote based on population growth/loss within the past 4 years.  That’s the number you see in the “exp 12 vote” column.  From there, I put up a prediction based on my current Ohio prediction that Obama will by 4% (actually 4.4% if you want to get technical).

What do we see?  Well first of all, Obama does very well in the cities relative to generic democrats.  I think he will win Hamilton County outright, and do so by about 5%.  Obama will push close to 70% in Cuyahoga County but fall just short of that mark.  He’ll also flirt with 60% in Franklin County.  Montgomery County, like Hamilton, will be a mid-single digits victory.  Lucas County and Mahoning County are two other Obama bastions, and I expect him to win by between 25-30% in each.  

Where Romney will put up his best numbers is in the rural west and in the exurban counties outside of Cincinnati.  Romney will push close to 70% and perhaps beyond in some rural western counties, like Mercer, Darke, and Putnam.  Butler, Clermont, and Warren counties will go extremely hard for the republican and give him his biggest raw vote gains on the night.  He should also do extremely well in the circle of ignorance surrounding Franklin County, but watch Delaware County…it might not be as red as it used to be.  

These counties I’ve mentioned so far indicate the two bases.  The swing counties you’ll want to watch closely are in the southeast and the northwest of the state.  Pike County and Hocking County are two rural southeastern counties that went narrowly for McCain 4 years ago.  I project that Obama will carry them this time.  Jefferson County, Belmont County, and Tuscarawas County are three counties in the region that went narrowly for Obama 4 years ago.  If Romney carries those outright it could be a sign that Obama is struggling in the region, and maybe the state as a whole though you’d have to look at city turnout before launching into a panic.  

In the northwest of the state, watch for Wood, Sandusky, and Ottawa counties.  These were three counties that Obama carried in 2008 that were carried by Bush in 2000 and 2004.  If they are blue again that is a sign that Obama’s strength in northwest Ohio wasn’t a one time fluke.  In that vein, watch for Huron, Seneca, Fulton, Williams, and Defiance Counties as well.  These counties were once solidly red, but Obama lost them all by 10% or less and Strickland ran strongly as well here during his 2010 gubernatorial defeat to John Kasich.  Any of these counties turning blue means that Obama is winning big.

Final Ohio projection – Obama 51.7 – Romney 47.3

County    Exp 12 vote    Obama    Romney    Obama %    Romney %
Adams    11,108    4,166    6,754    0.375    0.608
Allen    49,413    19,320    29,746    0.391    0.602
Ashland    24,473    9,251    14,757    0.378    0.603
Ashtabula    43,950    24,260    18,151    0.552    0.413
Athens    30,525    20,604    9,585    0.675    0.314
Auglaize    23,136    6,825    16,195    0.295    0.700
Belmont    31,727    16,276    15,102    0.513    0.476
Brown    19,754    7,546    11,991    0.382    0.607
Butler    172,228    66,652    104,887    0.387    0.609
Carroll    13,520    6,354    6,855    0.470    0.507
Champaign    18,554    7,403    10,984    0.399    0.592
Clark    65,448    31,349    33,575    0.479    0.513
Clermont    94,660    32,090    62,286    0.339    0.658
Clinton    19,001    6,574    12,275    0.346    0.646
Columbiana    47,377    21,841    25,015    0.461    0.528
Coshocton    16,369    7,612    8,430    0.465    0.515
Crawford    20,533    8,213    11,991    0.400    0.584
Cuyahoga    655,537    451,010    199,283    0.688    0.304
Darke    25,246    7,725    17,269    0.306    0.684
Defiance    18,795    8,326    10,281    0.443    0.547
Delaware    93,580    37,993    54,744    0.406    0.585
Erie    40,515    22,972    17,300    0.567    0.427
Fairfield    71,453    29,653    41,371    0.415    0.579
Fayette    11,515    4,387    7,058    0.381    0.613
Franklin    555,518    330,533    220,541    0.595    0.397
Fulton    21,604    9,938    11,515    0.460    0.533
Gallia    13,021    4,766    8,086    0.366    0.621
Geauga    50,411    21,173    28,583    0.420    0.567
Greene    82,839    34,295    48,378    0.414    0.584
Guernsey    16,807    7,529    8,941    0.448    0.532
Hamilton    419,649    220,316    196,815    0.525    0.469
Hancock    36,377    13,896    22,190    0.382    0.610
Hardin    12,765    4,978    7,569    0.390    0.593
Harrison    7,555    3,626    3,778    0.480    0.500
Henry    14,534    6,308    8,096    0.434    0.557
Highland    18,823    6,833    11,764    0.363    0.625
Hocking    12,648    6,223    6,210    0.492    0.491
Holmes    10,907    3,185    7,591    0.292    0.696
Huron    24,962    12,107    12,531    0.485    0.502
Jackson    13,628    5,370    8,027    0.394    0.589
Jefferson    35,092    17,546    17,160    0.500    0.489
Knox    27,809    11,124    16,407    0.400    0.590
Lake    119,357    60,036    58,485    0.503    0.490
Lawrence    26,680    11,285    15,154    0.423    0.568
Licking    81,400    32,234    48,514    0.396    0.596
Logan    21,782    7,950    13,635    0.365    0.626
Lorain    144,748    84,678    58,913    0.585    0.407
Lucas    216,233    140,552    73,519    0.650    0.340
Madison    17,203    6,554    10,494    0.381    0.610
Mahoning    124,019    78,132    44,647    0.630    0.360
Marion    28,330    12,663    15,270    0.447    0.539
Medina    89,701    39,469    49,784    0.440    0.555
Meigs    10,124    4,090    5,892    0.404    0.582
Mercer    20,951    5,929    14,728    0.283    0.703
Miami    51,882    17,069    34,242    0.329    0.660
Monroe    6,759    3,663    2,954    0.542    0.437
Montgomery    274,072    143,888    128,266    0.525    0.468
Morgan    6,394    2,935    3,332    0.459    0.521
Morrow    16,322    6,202    9,907    0.380    0.607
Muskingum    38,313    17,663    20,268    0.461    0.529
Noble    5,936    2,434    3,318    0.410    0.559
Ottawa    22,699    12,053    10,464    0.531    0.461
Paulding    9,466    4,108    5,168    0.434    0.546
Perry    15,025    7,227    7,528    0.481    0.501
Pickaway    23,370    9,091    14,092    0.389    0.603
Pike    12,217    5,999    5,925    0.491    0.485
Portage    76,908    41,761    34,378    0.543    0.447
Preble    20,559    7,031    13,302    0.342    0.647
Putnam    18,346    5,357    12,860    0.292    0.701
Richland    59,659    25,594    33,290    0.429    0.558
Ross    31,311    14,434    16,282    0.461    0.520
Sandusky    29,773    15,482    14,023    0.520    0.471
Scioto    31,926    14,942    16,346    0.468    0.512
Seneca    26,864    13,029    13,325    0.485    0.496
Shelby    23,275    7,355    15,524    0.316    0.667
Stark    183,678    94,043    85,594    0.512    0.466
Summit    274,115    158,986    112,387    0.580    0.410
Trumbull    103,954    63,204    39,295    0.608    0.378
Tuscarawas    41,990    21,247    20,197    0.506    0.481
Union    24,809    8,956    15,679    0.361    0.632
Van Wert    14,336    5,190    8,989    0.362    0.627
Vinton    5,497    2,446    2,946    0.445    0.536
Warren    106,655    33,490    72,099    0.314    0.676
Washington    29,352    12,416    16,701    0.423    0.569
Wayne    51,120    21,726    28,832    0.425    0.564
Williams    18,017    8,144    9,711    0.452    0.539
Wood    64,048    33,945    29,398    0.530    0.459
Wyandot    10,725    4,440    6,145    0.414    0.573
Statewide    5,623,265    2,907,272    2,661,871    0.517    0.473

Poll

How many electoral votes will Barack Obama win on Election Night 2012?

4%4 votes
3%3 votes
3%3 votes
9%8 votes
40%35 votes
5%5 votes
4%4 votes
20%18 votes
5%5 votes
1%1 votes

| 86 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think you're bearish on Nevada (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But overall, I can't really fault your predictions.   But yeah, I think Berkley will surprise almost everyone by winning.

  •  I'll just re-post my senate predictions here again (0+ / 0-)
    Flake 53 - Carmona 46
    Carmona needed Pres Obama to contest Arizona if he was to have a shot.  Red states break red.  

    Murphy 54 - McMahon 46
    McMahon will spend another $50M when it's all said and done again.  But blue states break blue just as red states vote red.  

    Nelson 56 - Mack 43
    Brand name in Florida.  I can see a fair number of Romney/Nelson voters, no Obama/Mack voters.  

    Mourdock 51 - Donnelly 49
    Indiana is seemingly trending Conservative.  Pence is a teabagger as well and he'll win in a walk.  

    Warren 55 - Brown 45
    I think Brown could have beat any other Dem this cycle.  GOP (and Bankster paymasters) will rue the day they blocked Warren from the CFPB chair.  

    McCaskill 51 - Akin 49
    This is another that I could still see going Repub.  But I think Nixon on the ballot will save Claire as Nixon will get 53-54% in his race and Claire just needs those non-party line Repubs/Indies.  GOP groups coming in late tells me this is closer than the internals McCaskill is putting out.  

    Tester 49 - Rehberg 48 - Lib 2
    This will come down to less than 1000 votes if Tester does win.  Power of incumbency here, eventhough Rehberg is statewide as well.  

    Fischer 56 - Kerrey 44
    Blow out here.  

    Heller 52 - Berkley 48
    I agree with your sentiments here.  She fought the Reid Machine, but I think Reid's handpicked candidate would have won here.  Berkley gave this seat to GOP.  

    Berg 52 - Heitkamp 48
    This will be the heartbreaker race.   Heidi is running a helluva campaign, but the State is just too conservative especially in the heightened partisanship of a Presidential year.  

    Kaine 53 - Allen 47
    I thought Allen would be a better candidate and said all along this race would go the same way as the Presidential race in Va.  Kaine probably outperforms Obama by 2 points.  

    Baldwin 51 - Thompson 49
    This one I could see going the other way with the same margins.  It will come down to the Presidential race here,  I think Pres Obama needs to win by 5+ for Baldwin to be safe.  

    King will get 50 in Maine in the three way.  

    Senate we break even - Pick up Warren and King(hopefully) and lose ND to Berg and Nebraska to Fischer.  I guess Ct is sort of a gain as well in that Murphy will be much better than Lieberman.  

    Pres Obama wins 303-235

    We pick up net 6 House seats.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:40:48 PM PST

    •  I think you're being rather bearish on Donnelly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      I just don't see Mourdock getting close to 50.   I can see some protest votes going to Horning or the Lugar Republicans reluctantly voting Donnelly rather than have Mourdock win(I think a lot of people are still mad than Mourdock throughly disrespected Lugar).

      So yeah, I think Mourdock is as toast as Akin.

    •  Why I think Mourdock's gonna lose (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Mourdock was still have great difficulty pulling away in the Senate race, in fact losing in a few polls, before he made his infamous comments about rape.

      I know Indiana is conservative but if Ken Buck was too much for Colorado, I can't imagine what Hoosiers think of Mourdock.

  •  Dems should have donated to Krietlow over Zerban (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY

    Same case trying to bump off Bachmann.   We gotta stop trying to bump off these raving nutters because they have the money to burn in safe red districts.  

    They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 03:44:18 PM PST

  •  One disagreement on your OH counties (0+ / 0-)

    I think Jefferson county will go for Romney. It went good for Gore, and Kerry carried by a little less, and Obama didn't pull 50%. But, i can see where you are coming from in having it as an Obama hold, with the auto bail-out ans such.

    Thank you for this series. I enjoyed it.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:41:58 PM PST

    •  Jefferson County (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Is one of those southeastern OH river counties that is locally democratic but never really warmed to Obama in 2008.  Now places like this could go one of two ways.  They could be happy with Obama's auto rescue and stances as far as protecting manufacturing jobs and industry and Obama could pick up support...or it could simply stay on the path that Appalachia as a whole is following.  Based on the expected vote totals, I would expect the former.  For Obama to lose river counties like Jefferson outright and still win the state by 4-5% he'd have to be killing it in his base counties of support.

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