I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.Morris predicted a 325-213 Romney landslide, but instead we got a ... 332-206 Obama "squeaker".
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen.It was freakish how non-white people suddenly voted! And they did it again! More below the fold.
I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.We were deriding you back because, you know, reality. You could've listened.
But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.Ah yeah, Christie! What did you write about that a few days ago?
Last week, Obama asserted a kind of ownership of the storm by touring New Jersey in the now infamous embrace of Republican stalwart Governor Chris Christie. Now that we are all appalled by the lack of food, gas, water, heat, and the basic essentials of life throughout the storm zone, Obama’s government doesn’t look so good anymore [...]So you were full of shit when you wrote that pre-election? Back to his mea culpa:
By campaigning, particularly by using the same harsh partisan rhetoric which has characterized his campaign, Obama is dragging down his ratings and with it his chances of victory.
Sandy, in retrospect, stopped Romney’s post-debate momentum. She was, indeed, the October Surprise. She also stopped the swelling concern over the murders in Benghazi and let Obama get away with his cover-up in which he pretended that a terrorist attack was, in fact, just a spontaneous demonstration gone awry.No one outside the wingnutosphere bought the craziness about a Benghazi coverup. Not even people like Condi Rice. Meanwhile, Romney's momentum had long since stalled. You can see it, you know, in the data.
Obama is the first president in modern times to win re-election by a smaller margin than that by which he was elected in the first place.He's also the first Democrat to get re-elected with an outright 50+ majority since FDR. So?
That he could get re-elected despite his dismal record is a tribute to his brilliant campaign staff and the shifting demographics of America. This is not your father’s United States and the Republican tilt toward white middle aged and older voters is ghettoizing the party so that even bad economic times are not enough to sway the election.Okay, all of that is correct.
We must stop Obama’s socialist agenda. That’s our job for the next four years. We cannot allow Obama to magnify his narrow victory into a mandate for larger government, bigger spending, and less freedom.Blah blah blah freedom! Since he doesn't have the facts on his side, he might as well just pound the table. A good grifter knows how to adjust.