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Thoughts on Exit Polls

My sense is that Obama and Romney broke even in a lot of the major demographics, but the smaller demographic groups really broke for Obama a lot, handing him his slim margin of victory. Young, poor or middle class, females, minorities, those interested in health care and Obamacare, those interested in abortion, those who want to raise taxes, those who thinks Obama cares more about people - all were smaller shares of the electorate but all were incredibly enthusiastic for Obama and against Romney.

Romney's 5% edge in independents was not enough to make up for the 6% edge in Democrats vs. Republicans. The born again and tea party folks only 20% or so came out. Not sure if this is a change from last time.

Are we left of center or right of center?

A) More women came out to vote (53-47) and were for Obama 55-44

B) Obama got the younger voters - the huge gain in the youth making up for the thin advantage Romney got for those over 45

C) Romney got whites, who make up 72%, an incredible 59 to 39!  If it wasn't for the incredible lopsided support among Africian Americans (93%), Latinos (71%) and even Asians (75%), Obama would have been a goner.

D) Obama got the 'moderates' (self described) 56-41% - that make up 41% of the electorate.

E) Obama did not get the 'Independents'(Party id), loosing them 45-50. More democrats (38%) than Republicans (32%) were the reason Obama skated by.  There is some truth to the idea that if Romney had attracted more religious right wing nuts, he might have won.

F) Obama lost those making 50k ore more - by a difference of 7 percentage points. However, enough poorer people made up the difference, going for Obama 60-38%.
Romney should have cared a lot more about the 47%.

G) Romney had an edge on the protestents, but Obama on the Catholics. The Atheists made up the differnce 70-30, and gave Obama the day.

H) Only 26% born again voted - So Romney's lead there was irrelevent.

I) 67% of the voters thought that abortion should be legal

J) Romney got the tea party folks, but there was only 21% of them - less than the percentage who were 'born again'.

K) Health care propelled Obama over the top, as a majority thought Romney did better at the economy and the Deficit. So, Obama was right to go after this issue after all, even though 49% think it should be repealed (vs. 44% keep).

L) Obama won 81% to 18$ the 21% of people who said that Obama cares about people.

M) 60% of voters want taxes to go up. But, oddly, only a third thinks they should be raised to cut the deficit. Those no good liberal voters - evidently they want to spend more.

N)65% of voters think illegals should be given legal status

O) Obama won the medicare argument - 52% said that Obama would handle it better and only 44% for Romney. So, maybe Ryan was not the best pick for VP. But, recall Romney won old people.

P) Obama lost the deficit and economy argument - mostly split down the middle.

Q) Obama lost the 'are you better off than you were' as only 23% thought the economy was excellent or good. However, 39% thought the economy was getting better, and another third thought it was staying the same. So, this is no Ronald Reagan, but no Jimmy Carter either.

R). Obama won the International Crisis issue - with 57% thinking he could handle it, vs. 50% for Romney.

R) Obama won the single , 62 to 35, but these made up only 40% of the voters. Romney won the nuclear family and Obama all the rest.

S) Obama won the Hurricane issue - two thirds saying it was a factor in their vote - and many of these going to Obama.


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