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I was hovering over the cnn and msnbc websites to see where obama lost his margin from 2008, besides indiana.  low and behind, in most states, i found maybe an average drop of 1% or so.  the polls on the popular vote may have been wrong - obama may have won by 4%.

let's do some math:
california 2008: 61/37, net 3.25 million vote advantage for obama
california 2012: 59/39, net 2 million vote advantage for obama
only 70% of california is counted!  we potentially have a net 1 million vote advantage left to be counted.

scrolling over other states: oregon is 75% in, washington 55% in, new york is 86% in.  alaska and arizona are the only red states with less than 90% of the vote counted.

right now, there is a real chance that we gain a net 1% advantage in the popular vote, and depending on rounding, could put mitt at a very apropos 47%.

why is this important?  because the media will soon turn to the meme that this was not a mandate, it was very close, almost a tie, and america is split down the middle.  the media will tell us that the president and senate should compromise on the fiscal cliff, and extend the bush tax cuts.  they will tell us that the house is overwhelmingly republican.

which, may or may not be true.  i have a hunch that the entire advantage is due to gerrymandering and the fact that democrats live in areas heavily concentrated in democrats.  we may have won a plurality of the popular vote for the house in aggregate.  there is data to prove or disprove this assertion, but is it easy to obtain?  does any website present a list of the vote for the house, all on a single page or in a table?  outside of a lot of copy and paste from 50 different webpages and some spreadsheet work, i'm not sure how to prove this assertion.

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Comment Preferences

  •  wingers are grumbling about EC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wayward Wind, luckylizard

    and complaining that Obama stole the election by fraud by allowing undocumented immigrants to vote and by nailing the ignorant demographic and welfare queens.  Every time on FB someone defends obama, he is called a mooch and leech and parasite, wanting something for nothing.
    After more than 40 years of work I take umbrage at folks who have less than 40 years calling me a  moocher.

    •  The hubris is stunning (5+ / 0-)

      I am a disabled Vietnam veteran with 2 Purple Hearts and a bunch of other stuff, a 40 year history of veteran activism, was a tactical unit police officer for 5 years, paid into Social Security from age 16 - and was called unAmerican when defending Barack Obama on a particular site.

      I take more than umbrage at such sentiments...

      I am a warrior for peace. And not a gentle man... Steve Mason, 1940-2005

      by Wayward Wind on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:10:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  we are of an age (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Wayward Wind

        I am especially outraged when SS and vet benefits are called entitlements.  Guy told me the other day that the problem with SS was all the "illegals" and slackers who had not paid a cent into SS were getting benefits.
        I challenged how an illegal immigrant could receive benefits.  Most work under fake IDs and so never collect SS though they pay in.
        Those who never paid in are widows and orphans who collect from work performed by spouses or parents.
        He then said he meant SSDI so I told him that though SS administered the program, it is not funded through FICA so he had no kick coming on that issue.  He then grumbled that SS was failing due to cost of administering SSDI.  How do you argue against something like that?  

        •  It is extremely hard (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          entlord, wewantthetruth, Woody

          to argue with ignorance and stupidity.

          You continue to demonstrate the errors in their pronouncements with facts, and when all the layers of their onion have been peeled back, they resort to questioning your integrity and patriotism - something that I vowed long ago I would never leave unchallenged in the strongest terms possible.  

          Then they slink away....

          I am a warrior for peace. And not a gentle man... Steve Mason, 1940-2005

          by Wayward Wind on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:38:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  yep, just like the Swiftboaters called out Kerry (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Wayward Wind, Woody

            when many of them had never served  a day and made ridiculous claims, such as disputing the date when Kerry was on the VN/Cambodia border or claiming the Mekong did not flow to that border or claiming his wounds and Purple Hearts were bogus.

            It is amazing that that war continues to divide us after 40 years as we ended up in 2000 with a POTUS who served in a champagne NG unit and did not even honorably finish his hitch there

        •  Illegals pay and get nothing back, is how it works (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          I knew many people in the restaurant business in NYC who were not legal. They paid payroll taxes and will never actually get SS or Medicare!

          That is the truth!

          •  And black men die first (0+ / 0-)

            Black men have such  low life expectancy compared to white men in this country that they cannot expect to collect much or any Social Security payments. Damn. They die before they can fully mooch!

  •  National polls (0+ / 0-)

    It is looking a bit like the national polls were off, with Obama taking a 3-4% margin. All the talk of an EV/PV split was a lot of smoke.

    So while polling entails the trappings of "math," it's best to keep in mind that statistics is a weak branch of the field.

  •  Have a look here (0+ / 0-)

    Obama Likely to Win Popular Vote by More than 3%

    Barack Obama will exceed George Bush in 2004 on both EC and PV margins.

    I am a warrior for peace. And not a gentle man... Steve Mason, 1940-2005

    by Wayward Wind on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:13:02 AM PST

    •  Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      read a similar article last night although cannot remember where and I should have posted it.

      Premise of the article was similar that with all the votes not yet counted and based on historical splits, O will fall just short of the 69 million votes he got in 2008.

      Given the economy (although improving), the % of people who would just never vote for a black person and the $2.5 billion spent against O by mittens and the superpacs, I would say that this is a stunning performance and a definite mandate.

      mittens=edsel. no matter how much money is spent to promote it, if the product sucks, no one will buy it.

      by wewantthetruth on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 05:58:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  We won the popular vote in the House (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brg6, Woody

    You're right, someone already did the math (and the totals will only improve as the remaining votes are counted):

    Here's the diary

    We need to start talking about a mandate -- White House, Senate and the House.

    •  thank you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody

      for the link to that diary.  the ap xml link in there is exactly what i was looking for.  i know how to open xml in excel go from there :-)

    •  that and the fact that dems (0+ / 0-)

      elected were liberal and not off the blue dog wing.

      when dem senators are getting elected in red states, you can say the tide is turning,

      people are coming around. they are understanding that 30 years of conservatism has screwed them.

      the 1% have gained at our expense. we're not interested in handouts, we just want our fair share and what is rightfully ours.

      mittens=edsel. no matter how much money is spent to promote it, if the product sucks, no one will buy it.

      by wewantthetruth on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:01:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  what web site has current popular vote margins (0+ / 0-)

    updated regularly?  what is or are the best web site(s) to check over the next few days for this?

    •  Several do (0+ / 0-)

      pollster.com actually has the totals and the margin rounded to a tenth of a point. Other sites just have the raw vote count, although I have been frustrated trying to find a site that has the national popular vote for all candidates and not just Obama & Romney.

  •  Obama's national margin now over 3 million (0+ / 0-)
  •  so much for the meme (0+ / 0-)

    what happens if O wins electoral and mittens wins popular vote.

    6-8% of voters in '08 admitted that they would never vote for a black man as president.....no reason that is any less true today but add 6-8% to O's totals, then he kicked ass even more than currently discussed.

    mittens and the republicans are losers, big time.

    mittens=edsel. no matter how much money is spent to promote it, if the product sucks, no one will buy it.

    by wewantthetruth on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:04:46 AM PST

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