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2013

New Jersey: Chris Christie helping Obama win and putting his state first after Hurricane Sandy has definitely helped his chances here. His most likely opponent is Cory Booker. Lean R

Virginia: Bob McDonnell of vaginal probe fame is term limited. Terry McAuliffe has already announced he is running for the Dems, while right wing extremist Ken Cuccinelli likely will for the Republicans. A potential wild card is former Gov. Mark Warner, if he jumped in this seat would be in the Dem column for sure. Toss Up

2014

Arizona: The sleeping giant of Arizona Latinos will awaken someday. It probably won't be in 2014 though. Whichever Republican runs will likely have the edge. Lean R

Arkansas: Popular Gov. Mike Beebe is term limited, and who his successor will be will determine whether or not Arkansas is still willing to elect non-incumbent vestigial conservative Democrats. Judging from the House elections there in 2012, I'm guessing probably not, so the GOP has an edge here. Lean R - GOP pickup

Colorado: John Hickenlooper has decent approval ratings, so he starts with the edge here. Lean D

Connecticut: PPP has shown Dan Malloy with weak approval ratings, so he could be potentially vulnerable here. But Connecticut is still a deep blue state, so he has the edge. Lean D

Florida: Rick Scott is toxic, and PPP shows even generic Dem candidates with no name recognition would trounce him. Unless he retires, this is Lean D - Dem pickup

Georgia: Nathan Deal is corrupt, but Georgia is red. Likely R

Illinois: Pat Quinn is very unpopular and probably won't run again. Any Dem will start with the edge, especially Lisa Madigan. Lean D

Iowa: Terry Branstad isn't setting the roof on fire, but his popularity has held up well enough to start with the edge here. Lean R

Maine: Paul LePage was elected in a fluke when the Dem and independent split the anti-teabagger vote in 2010. He's likely dead meat. Lean D - Dem pickup

Massachusetts: Massachusetts is very blue, but votes for Republican governors a lot. Additionally, Scott Brown may be waiting in the wings, a race in which his party will matter much less. Lean D

Michigan: Rick Snyder's popularity has fluctuated and Michigan is a blue state. Toss Up

Minnesota: Mark Dayton's approval has held up fairly well. Lean D

Nevada: Brian Sandoval won in a landslide despite the fact that the state is trending blue, and he continues to be popular. We'd need a miracle here. Likely R

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan was just elected in a landslide, and she's fairly centrist. She'll probably be okay here. Likely D

New Mexico: Same story as Nevada, Susana Martinez is very popular. Likely R

Ohio: John Kasich was once in the dumps like Rick Scott, but he's recovered since then, and this will be a real race. Toss Up

Oregon: John Kitzhaber has decent approval ratings and is the favorite. Lean D

Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett is toxic and under suspicion for his involvement in the Sandusky mess. He may even retire. Until the field shapes out, this is Lean D - Dem pickup

Rhode Island: Independent Lincoln Chafee has gotten very unpopular. He may end up being the de facto Democrat, or perhaps not. I'll just give this a Likely D for now.

South Carolina: Nikki Haley's win in 2010 was less than impressive, but it's a very polarized state and we have no real bench here. Likely R

Texas: This could be potentially interesting if Rick Perry runs for re-election. He's become toxic after his joke of a presidential bid, so a good Dem opponent could stand a good chance here. Lean R

Wisconsin: Scott Walker won by making the recall a referendum on the recall, not a referendum on him. But he's shown he has what it takes to survive, and probably will again unless a top tier opponent steps up. Lean R

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rhode Island (5+ / 0-)

    What's Lincoln Chafee's problem in RI?

    “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

    by RoIn on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:33:58 PM PST

  •  Kookanelly must NOT become governor of VA (8+ / 0-)

    He is the most wild-eyed, right-wing, batshit-crazy Rethug of them all!  We'd have the Christian equivalent of sharia law, with birth control banned and lady-Americans forced to stay home behind closed doors.  He really is nuts.

    I didn't care for Terry McAuliffe last time around but by God he'd be better than the Kook!  Any Democrat would be better than the Kook!

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:37:25 PM PST

    •  I don't think he'll be able to moderate . . . (3+ / 0-)

      his image as McDonnell was able to in 2009 (even though, in reality McDonnell was anything but).

      I was a McAuliffe skeptic last time, but I'm on board this go-around.  He burned through a lot of money in the primaries and finished third, in part because he didn't have a natural base or any real ties to local state parties.  He was arguably the hardest working candidate out of the bunch though, and I think he will have much stronger support with local county parties, because he has continued to work actively since then.  He can make a strong go at it this time.

      I kind of hope that Warner doesn't run, because it will be especially hard to retain his seat in the Senate.  However, he would win the Governor's race easily if he chose to run.

  •  Did you leave CA ('14) out intentionally or? (3+ / 0-)

    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

    by cany on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:46:46 PM PST

  •  As a Floridian (6+ / 0-)

    Who was involved in Alex Sink's 2010 campaign, 2014 cannot come soon enough. But I suspect Scott will not seek re-election. The republican party will put pressure on him to step down so the republicans have a better chance to keep the governorship.

    It's not easy being a Floridian: PS I'm a lawYER now; no longer a lawSTUDENT.

    by lawstudent922 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:48:28 PM PST

  •  IL depends on what Durbin does. If he retires, (2+ / 0-)

    Madigan will win that seat.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:58:34 PM PST

  •  Wrong about Ohio — lean D (6+ / 0-)

    Kasich's so-called "recovery" is superficial, and he and his legislative minions are working on rolling out still more wildly unpopular initiatives ranging from the Heartbeat Bill and defunding Planned Parenthood to selling off the turnpike to Right to Work for Less to this cockamamie idea of Husted's about allocating electoral votes by congressional districts, even though Ohio's are so obscenely gerrymandered they don't remotely represent the state. If any of this becomes reality or even close, look for more repeal referendums on the ballot, which would kill Kasich. Plus don't think union-busting SB 5 is forgotten.

    In addition, we have a deep bench here with a lot of attractive candidates for up and down the statewide ticket. Plus the Ohio Republican Party is at civil war with itself. Kasich and Husted hate each other, and will have a hard time working together. I'm still not entirely convinced Kasich will run again — unless it's to spite Husted, who everyone knows desperately wants to be governor.

    2014 could be very fertile for Ohio Democrats. The Ohio GOP will have some rough sledding. Lean Dem, for sure.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 08:01:38 PM PST

  •  Cory Booker (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wilderness voice, wdrath

    I'm not sure if he should run.  As the diarist noted, Christie will be tough to beat.  Would Booker want to be mayor of Newark for another few years though?  

    I'd hate to see him talked into running for the Senate if Lautenberg retires.  He'd be much more effective as a governor.  Of course, I'm sure there's no shortage of willing Dems who'd want to run for that seat.

    •  Christie (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente, wdrath

      I live in NJ,Booker should sit the Gov. run out and he would be assured the Gov. mansion in 2017. He could win in 2013, but he would need an Obama like turnout by African Americans to do it. If he could get that with the unions,it's possible. The thing is moderate dems with no ties to organized labor like Christie. We have had a boat load of bad Gov. and he is at least perceived as doing his job. I'm not voting for him,but I know dems that will.

      •  I doubt anyone beats Christie - thx to Sandy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Crying Elephant

        performance.  My NJ friends are Dems and don't much like him but he's not so bad that they are on a crusade to defeat him.  Some of them are saying they may actually vote for him even tho they voted against him last time.  Dubious he can be beaten next year.  But is important to nail the legislature again for the Dems to keep Christie's worst GOP instincts in check.

        •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

          The dems will keep the Legislature mostly due to redistricting and the fact that although public unions dislike some of the dem turncoats that helped Christie,they understand that NJ becomes Wisconsin if the Legislature flips. I am a NJ Probation Officer and people in my office were saying they weren't going to vote last year when the Legislature was up to punish them for helping Christie. I told them if you don't vote we will have our right organize stripped.

  •  Iowa (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1, wdrath

    Congressman Bruce Braley is being begged to run. He would win.  Branstad likely wont run again, far too old and he has a Romney problem - namely, IMO, he is a pathological liar and his lies spew out faster than he can keep his mouth moving. He won because Chet Culver was a lazy lug of a Governor. Braley would rip the old man apart. The R's backup plan, Lt. gov., is rumored to be a lightweight drunk with multiple men issues.

  •  Wisconsin Race - Tossup (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PALiberal1

    I'm just thinking conservatively but I think we're forgetting here that Gov. Scott Walker's signature achievement: Preventing bargaining rights for unions, has been shot down by higher courts so that means Walker's popularity isn't quite what it used to be.  This doesn't mean Walker's approval rating is like Rick Scott's but Scott Walker was the first Tea Party Republican to gain national attention.  It was also said that Walker's win in the recall race would increase momentum for Republicans throughout the country.  It didn't.

  •  PA - Corbett - all depends on quality of the Dem (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath

    opponent.  Corbett is much weaker than Christie, but the Dem nominee needs to be someone who has appeal BEYOND the core Dem constituencies.  I don't see anyone on the horizon meeting that profile, but it's early.

  •  wow...a lot of pickup opportunities for (0+ / 0-)

    Democrats in 2013 & 14 and a lot of seats for Republicans to have to defend...hopefully Democrats can take advantage of this opportunity with some strong candidate recruitment and voter mobilization efforts, especially in states where Republicans have so blatantly overreached, tried to disenfranchise voters and otherwise been jerks (OH, PA, AZ).

    Am wanting to disagree with you regarding Wisconsin. While Scott may have clawed his way into office, he's been nothing by a divisive jerk ever since and, yes, with the help of massive amounts of out-of-state money from billionaires was able to fight back the recall. However, the number one reason most voters gave after the recall election for not have recalled him was pretty weak...that they didn't think his actions, as partisan as they were, rose to the level of overturning the results of what they perceived as a free and fair election previously.

    You're right...Walker has demonstrated an ability to marshall the forces of the right wing to his advantage, but...surely...there must be some Democrat of stature in Wisconsin who can come across as much more reasonable and less divisive than Walker. What about Feingold?

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