I had originally titled this diary "How to screw your party through entitlement cuts," but I realized the issue of cutting Social Security reflects a wider issue with the Democratic Party leadership and the parts of its base that supports the corporate establishment. The problem can be summed up in one word: Denial.
While the GOP works off saying "no," the Democratic Party seems to exist in various stages and forms of denial.
Denial of the shifts occurring in America
After the election it was assumed that the demographic shifts from the GOP meant one towards the Democrats because the Democrats have been the benefactors of the shift given the two choices on the menu that voters have. The main problem that I have had with the thesis is that the demographic shifts are ideological rather than partisan. The assumption that Democratic equal lefts pervades the demographics that are shifting in the Democrats electoral favor. The problem? Will those voters stick with the Democratic Party has the Party turns up the economic screws on them? I think this is an open question. Unlike White middle class voters, these are poorer voters, facing economic issues that those traditionally White Liberal voters did not face. Denial of this reality is likely to make what seems like a rising tide of Democratic support shift to other quarters. Where? I can't say. I am simply pointing out denial of the ideological make up of the new demographics will possibly have consequence for the party.
Denial of electoral prospects
Pelosi is supposedly in support of the President's plan for Social Security. I am not surprised with this. What will be interesting to me is whether the Democratic Representatives in the House will follow her? This to me is the denial of the Third Rail of Politics.
New or old demographics do not matter here. One needs only look at the polls:
Here's the reality: Any Democrat voting for cutting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is signing their electoral suicide come 2014, just as they did by agreeing with t the President's follies before 2010.
To ignore this is denial on a level that I am not sure any argument can cure. The fact is- depress your base, lose your race. That's all you need to know about 2014.
Denial: Obama is not up for reelection.
To be very clear, Obama isn't up for re-election and any one making a decision based on him is signing up to retire, possibly before he does.
Denial by members of the base who support the Democratic Leadership
One of the more complicated forms of denial is that coming from the Democratic base that supports the Democratic leadership.
This comes in a wide range of forms that is difficult to cover in this short diary. From the Obama is tricking the GOP to we have a long time until 2014 to this doesn't really cut social security to whatever you want to add as your pet belief that cutting entitlement has anything but a harmful effect to the party.
I will not appeal in these arguments to policy, because, I don't think it will influence those who are in denial about the electoral effects of the policy.
As a general rule, the Democratic base has memorized the script from the Party, which is to essentially ape whatever the GOP does. From 1976 until 2008, that made a lot of sense. But in 2008, something happened: Reaganism began to die. I believe most are in denial or trying to extend that view of that view of the world. You are not going to get better electoral outcomes by adhering to a script that's dying. The reason why should be obvious but let me make it plain: There are fewer votes who will be influenced by it so you will be increasingly chasing after voters that are less and less likely to exist for anyone, much less the party that only offers a lighter version of the real thing in the GOP.
There are many other types of denial: Denial of the status of the U.S.'s position in the world as slowly eroding, denial of the decline of the American middle class, denial that President Obama is a conservative/or just a really, really , really bad negotiator and denial of the influence of corporate interest on the Democratic Party, which is officially now a conservative party.
The point: The Party needs to be brought back to reality. It will happen after because people threaten the "progressives" in primaries (the prefer way) or because the party loses in the general election (the other choice if you don't take action to move this current crop of Democrats out so that better ones will replace them).
See
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/18/1171660/-Washington-Post-ABC-News-poll-You-want-to-do-what-to-Social-Security">polling data
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/...
http://blog.ourfuture.org/...