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I swear that sometimes I wonder if Club for Growth isn't a secretly Democratic organization run by James Carville on the down low.   As the Hill reports, the Club for Growth is targeting nine Republican congresspeople for not being conservative enough for them.   At least four of those districts could be won by Democrats if the Republican incumbant loses a primary.    I'll briefly look at the districts that are part of this effort.

AL-02: Martha Roby.  This is an R+18 district and Romney won 63% of the vote here(McCain also won 63% here in 2008).   This southeastern Alabama district was Bobby Bright's district from 2009-2011 and Bright only narrowly lost in 2010(Robey won it 51.1% to 48.9%).   This would be a tough district for the Democrats to win, but Bright could make things interesting.

AR-01: Rick Crawford.   This is an R+7 district and Romney won 61% of the vote in this northeastern Arkansas district.   This district has been tilting more Republican in recent years as McCain got 58% in 2008.  It is a very agricultural district so the GOP refusal to do a real Farm Bill could hurt the GOP here, and it does have some manufacturing there too.   Arkansas State Rep. Marshall Wright, a Democrat is considering a run in this district.   I imagine the DCCC will be watching this race if Crawford gets a Tea Party challenger.

ID-02:  Mike Simpson.  This is an R+17 district, and Romney won 64% in this eastern and southern Idaho district.   This district includes most of the capitol Boise and is a district that has strong Mormon influence.   McCain won 61% of the vote in 2008.   Simpson has been in this seat since 1999(the Democrat who had this seat until 1993 ran again Simpson and lost).   Obviously this district should be contested but I am not sure a Democrat has much of a chance there.

IL-16: Adam Kinzinger.  It's an R+4 district and Romney won 53% of the vote of this district that includes some exurbs of Chicago and it forms a ring that goes from the Indiana border to the Wisconsin border.   I am sure the DCCC would love to take a shot at an open seat here, and perhaps Debbie Halvorson might take a look at running in this district since it does include part of Will County.   This district should be targeted with the most electable Democrat possible and in Club for Growth manages to make this an open seat with an extreme candidate, then I like our chances.

IL-18: Aaron Schock.   This is an R+10 district, and Romney got 61% of the vote in this Peoria and Springfield district.  Schock is looking at running for governor in Illinois and I suppose this could make him jump into that.   Schock's own ethics issues(like improper use of campaign funds) would make him vulnerable anyway.   Obviously this seat should be contested by a fairly strong Democrat.

IN-08: Larry Bucshon.   This is an R+8 district, and Romney won 58% of this Southwestern Indiana district often called "The Bloody 8th".   For reference, Donnelly won this district with 50%.   In 2012, Bucshon only won reelection with 53% of the vote to Dave Crooks winning 43%.   The DCCC is likely going to watch this district too, and I have written on Bucshon's anti-choice views as I did a IN-08 diarybefore the 2012 election

MS-04: Steve Palazzo.   Apparently you always have to be a dick about hurricane relief for some in this R+20 district that Romney won 68% of the vote in this southeastern Mississippi district that include cities that were devastated by Hurricane Katrina.   This also was Gene Taylor's seat.   I really hope the GOP does do attack ads on Palazzo for voting for a hurricane relief bill.   Please proceed Republicans so we can give something to do show to voters in New Jersey and New York so they can see that the GOP is for dickish on hurricane relief(and maybe rid NJ of a few GOP congresspeople).

NC-02: Renee Ellmers.   This is an R+11 district where Romney won 57% of the vote.  Ellmers was elected in the Tea Party wave where she very narrowly beat a Democratic incumbant named Bob Etheridge.   If Club for Growth gets a primary opponent to Ellmers, perhaps Etheridge can work with the inevitable souring on the Tea Party.   If nothing else, this needs to be contested by a Democrat.

OK-03:  Frank Lucas.  It's blood-red Oklahoma where Romney won every county.   This is a R+24 and 74% Romney district that has the Oklahoma panhandle and other counties in Western and Northern Oklahoma.   A Democrat hasn't represented this district since 1997, and I doubt any Democrat will in the near future.

From the looks of things, the Illinois 16th is the most winnable district for Democrats and I believe that the Arkansas 1st and the Indiana 8th could be won if the GOP unseats the incumbant in a primary and there is a strong Democratic challenger.   The North Carolina 2nd would need a Democratic wave but strong voter registration efforts and strong turnout efforts could really help.  The Illinois 18th should be contested but I am not expecting much. The Alabama 2nd could be interesting if Bright wants to try again.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    I agree with President Obama, our country's journey is not yet complete. We must continue the work that our forebearers at Seneca Falls started, and put the Equal Rights Amendment into our Constitution.

    by pistolSO on Wed Feb 27, 2013 at 04:49:05 PM PST

  •  AR-01, where the Tea Party knows it's Racism (4+ / 0-)

    From their home page.

    http://arkansasteaparty.com/

    My wife asked me some time ago what would be the first thing I would do if elected as Gould’s mayor. My response, “Resign.” That said, as a 37-year resident of Gould, I do have some thoughts on what might help Gould get out of the massive hole it is in.

    First of all, one must recognize that the massive hole we’re in is due to a long string of people with shovels. Gould has a long history of division and strife. A little-known fact is that Gould was the first school district in the United States to be forced by the U.S. Supreme Court to totally integrate its schools. Up until that time, Gould had “separate but equal” schools with the right of black families to send their children to the “white school” if they so desired. This “right” didn’t come about until the late 60‘s. That worked fine until more black families wanted to send their children to the white school than the white school had room for. When the school board refused some black families admittance to the white school because of overcrowding, a lawsuit ensued which worked its way all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Supreme Court’s solution was to do away with the “separate but equal” system and force the black school and white school to totally integrate. The events that happened after that served to more deeply divide an already divided town.

    Wow.

    Well, that's a way to look at it.

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Wed Feb 27, 2013 at 04:54:03 PM PST

    •  Redstate's take on AR-1 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pistolSO, mdmslle, cotterperson

      http://www.redstate.com/...

      To the extent that we focused on intra-party battles, it was primarily in the Senate races.  Consequently, we nominated many sleeper progressives in conservative districts to win back the House. One such member is Rick Crawford (Progressive AR-1).

      Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

      by Chris Reeves on Wed Feb 27, 2013 at 04:57:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-16/IL-18/IN-8 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, allergywoman, mdmslle

    If the DCCC gets behind Wanda Rohl (of course, that's if she runs again), that could make things interesting in IL-16. She got 40% of the vote against Kinzinger despite running a bare-bones campaign with very limited resources.

    In IL-18, there isn't any Democrat that I know of that could win that seat unless the Republicans nominate an downright toxic candidate. Democrats should recruit a credible candidate here just in case.

    In IN-8, that district has a long history of voting out incumbents. Democrats should recruit a Joe Donnelly-type Democrat, as Richard Mourdock (yes, THAT Richard Mourdock) has been named as a potential primary challenger to Larry Buschon.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Feb 27, 2013 at 05:07:54 PM PST

  •  When referring to the Club for Growth (0+ / 0-)

    it should be associated w/it's rulers, the sociopath Koch bros.

    They are not a grass roots club, they are just another hideous face of  the billionaire sociopath Koch family.

    They need to be diagnosed by some courageous doctors as mentally ill as a clear and present danger to society and confined to a mental institution.

    Don't believe everything you think.

    by BrianParker14 on Wed Feb 27, 2013 at 08:58:35 PM PST

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