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Soundgarden -- "Black Hole Sun"

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Comment Preferences

  •  good song. (0+ / 0-)

    nothing really going on here lately.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 04:13:59 PM PST

  •  Has (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, KingofSpades

    anyone ever seen Downton Abbey? Because listening to this soundtrack makes me want to watch the show especially since I've heard good things about it.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 04:20:55 PM PST

  •  watching the war room (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GaleForceBurg

    hope everyone is having a good weekend so far

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 04:26:20 PM PST

  •  I'm most interested in the races (6+ / 0-)

    to catch my flights to vacation in London and Berlin starting next week (March 12-19).

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 04:29:20 PM PST

  •  I also noticed that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    when comparing Obama in 2012 and Obama in 2008 by Indiana county, where Obama did relatively well in 2012 matches up pretty well with the Chicago/Louisville/Cincinnati media markets:

     

    (I forgot to change the title--whoops!)

    He also seems to have under-performed in this region relative to Kerry, so perhaps he focused on the Indianapolis media market in 2008, and so that area rose relative to 2004 and then fell relative to 2008 without the campaign effect?  Or something?  I'd be curious to hear theories.  The Chicago and Louisville markets don't seem to reach major swing states.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 04:36:47 PM PST

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      Chicago market has an Obama home-state effect.  I wouldn't be surprised if it partially extended into NW Indiana.

      Louisville is more questionable.  It's possible Obama didn't contest it too heavily in 2008 relative to other Indiana markets so the dropoff was less steep?

      The Evansville market had a huge dropoff in its Kentucky portions as well, something I noted a while back.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 04:48:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I had the same info for Obama 2008 vs. Kerry (0+ / 0-)

        but I forgot to post that chart.  And of course, Obama 2012 vs. Kerry as well.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 05:05:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Fuck I love Chris Cornell (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, itskevin, The Dude 415

    I'm not gay, but I'd probably at least let him spoon me.

  •  SC-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, JGibson

    People here seem to be writing this one off, but I think it's a pickup opportunity that is on par with or even better than our opportunity to pickup states like Ohio or Michigan. Vincent Sheheen came within 4 points of Haley in a bright-red year, and while Sheheen seems poised to run again, Haley's popularity has only gone downhill. He already is beating her in hypotheticals. This one could really become one to watch.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 05:47:30 PM PST

  •  Recc'd. (0+ / 0-)

    For posting a video of "Black Hole Sun".

    If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

    by CO Democrat on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 05:51:58 PM PST

  •  NJ-Gov: Buono won't ignore the AshBritt story (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY, abgin

    AshBritt is a company hired by Christie to cleanup after Sandy.  And that would be all well and good if it were not a no-bid contract for a company (while there were other firms were offering cheaper rates) with hefty ties to Republican governor donors.  It even has strong ties to Haley Barbour:
    http://www.politickernj.com/...
    NJ Dems ordered them to testify and Buono got in a heated spar with the CEO:
    http://www.politickernj.com/...
    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    Again, quid pro quo isn't uncommon, but Christie heavily ran on fixing corruption here and he's done absolutely NOTHING to fix it.

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 06:16:40 PM PST

  •  NJ-Gov, KY-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    I really wish people would start taking Barbara Buono seriously, and it literally pains me (as an Eastern PA resident with lots of ties to NJ) that Christie is being treated by everyone as inevitable after all he's done pre-Sandy. He truly is too conservative for New Jersey, even with his "moderate" reputation, and I'm hoping that with the support of Cory Booker, Garden State Equality, EMILY's List, etc. Buono can gain some traction. Because if she can start to engage him on actual issues, and especially with potential ballot measures regarding minimum wage and same-sex marriage, I think she can actually compete. Does anyone else think it's possible to take Christie down later this year, or am I crazy?

    As for KY-Sen, I've been very interested in this race since The New York Times posted an article about Kentucky voters' almost gut-level support and trust in Ashley Judd, regardless of the fact that she's so liberal. [http://www.nytimes.com/...]. Maybe I'm just being naive, but I think she has a great shot at beating McConnell. Her likability would be a very strong asset, and I think voters would at the very least be open to hearing her explanations for her policy viewpoints based on the article above. And her ability to absolutely galvanize the Democratic base in the state and nationwide is probably her most underrated asset in my opinion. She would also be running against the emblem of Republican dysfunction and disinterest in helping solve America's problems. What do people think about her chances?

    22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

    by GReen4994 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 06:29:23 PM PST

    •  She hasn't a chance. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      Voters won't give her a chance because tens of millions of dollars will be spent destroying her reputation.  They're already spending money doing it and she isn't in the race yet.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 06:32:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  to be clear, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm talking about Judd, but Buono doesn't have a much better chance.  Entirely different reasons, though.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 06:34:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  But did you read the article I linked? Voters ARE (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, askew

        giving her a chance, even with her undeniable and inescapable "Hollywood liberal" identity. I just feel like people on here are being incredibly dismissive of her potential. Some of the quotes from voters in the article:

        "I know she wants to come back to help her state, her community, just from her heart... I know she’s more liberal than me. But honesty is more important to me than anything."

        "She may be a little too liberal for me... I’ve got tired of him. He’s always against everything."

        "Perry Dalton, 67, a retired steelworker, said he was a Republican but liked Ms. Judd because she was not a typical politician."

        Do you see any potential from those sentiments? I'm assuming these voters are not alone (although I'm not so naive to think that everyone's going to love her just because they admire her character). I'm not saying she's a shoo-in, but she'll probably raise more money than McConnell, so it's not as if she'll have her reputation destroyed while he sits pretty.

        22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

        by GReen4994 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:33:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Those things sound like things I've heard (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike, Stephen Wolf

          a lot about candidates who had little hope and lost in landslides.  Given the history of places like Kentucky, we can be sure that someone as liberal as her doesn't have a realistic shot.  I mean, how did Nick Clooney do?  He lost a previously Dem-held House seat.  People didn't have patience for a Hollywood liberal.  It may have been among the most conservative parts of the state, but they were open to voting for a conservative Dem.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:47:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Point taken. Although Nick Clooney in 2004 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            arealmc

            isn't exactly comparable to Ashley Judd today in my opinion. To be honest I know absolutely nothing about his career except from his Wikipedia page, but it seems to me that he was a past-his-prime TV news anchor/journalist without much of a policy background without a well of good will from statewide voters.

            Judd is certainly past her prime (though not by nearly as much as Clooeny) but still very well known with deeper connections to Kentucky than Clooney seems to have had as well as a prominent national profile and a masters degree in public administration (which people will respect, and she should have an easy time of explaining her policy positions in simple and effective terms).

            Again, I'm not saying she's a definite winner, but I think the reflexive dismissiveness really overlooks her uniqueness qualities as a candidate and how conventional wisdom about a candidate like her on paper may not apply by virtue of who she is and how she campaigns and connects to voters. That's all.

            22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

            by GReen4994 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:19:01 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  he was a local news guy, he was running not state- (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, MichaelNY, skibum59, jncca, ArkDem14

              wide but in his media market, and they were able to paint him as a Hollywood liberal.  Judd is more of a Hollywood liberal, and has not had the strong local presence he did in the local media.

              You seem to think that her being on the fairly far left doesn't matter.  When Democrats win in conservative states and districts, it is not liberal Democrats, but Democrats who reflect the local views.  We may not think Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor are great Democrats, but they were Arkansas Democrats.  We may not like how conservative Dan Mongiardo was, but he was a guy who could win the coal counties in Kentucky.  We may not think Byrd, Rockefeller, or Manchin are/were great Democrats, but the first two were too liberal to get elected in West Virginia in an open race nowadays, and Manchin is typical of the state.  Jim Matheson is to the left of Utah by a lot, but he's still one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.

              Judd would be liberal even among the senate Democrats.  She's far too liberal for Kentucky.  We're not living in those days anymore when states like Idaho could elect liberal Democrats.  Mitch McConnell is far closer to the average KY voter than she is.  Even Rand Paul probably is.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:47:01 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  He had a strong local media presence 20 yrs prior (0+ / 0-)

                to his campaign according to Wikipedia... In any case. I don't know if I'm just not articulating well or what, but I obviously understand that her liberal positions are a giant obstacle. That's not the point of my argument, which you are either missing or ignoring. If you don't think she has a chance in spite of her strengths, that's perfectly fair and I totally understand where you're coming from. But you don't even seem to acknowledge that she's NOT simply a radical bundle of glaring vulnerabilities, and she won't be running against a beloved incumbent.

                My point is that the unique qualities that she brings to the table (enormous fundraising potential, strong policy knowledge, favorite daughter status, universal name recognition statewide, public respect and goodwill, potential to galvanize the Democratic base, years of dedication to humanitarian causes that show her commitment to people and public service) MAY be enough to overcome the fact that she is way too liberal for Kentucky. Keyword MAY. If the contest was Mitch McConnell vs. Generic left-wing carpetbagger Democrat, of course he would win in a landslide! But Judd is NOT a generic left-wing carpetbagger Democrat.

                22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

                by GReen4994 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 09:30:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'll give you may (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  GReen4994

                  if by may we can say she has a small chance.  Money and McConnell's unpopularity was able to make Lunsford competitive despite Lunsford being unpopular himself.  He still lost by 6 points, though, and he wasn't too liberal for the state, in fact he won much of the coal counties that Obama and Ben Chandler cratered in this year.  How could she win them when she's anti-coal?  They don't vote for anti-coal candidates.

                  I give her a 2% chance.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 09:42:24 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think you're really being generous (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    I give her less than 1%.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 02:52:48 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I'd say 2-5% (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY, GReen4994

                    The only way Judd wins is if external events cause the issues where more voters agree with her (Medicare and/or Social Security?) to become much more prominent and coal to become much less prominent. She beats McConnell on "who would you rather have a beer with"...

                    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                    by sacman701 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:57:32 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  That's all I'm trying to say. I personally believe (0+ / 0-)

                    she has more than a small chance, but I'm glad you acknowledge that she's at least not dead on arrival. The last poll from PPP (in December) showed her with a 42-36 favorability rating (which could obviously change, and probably already has), compared to a 37-55 approval rating for McConnell. So she's not unpopular by any means (yet).

                    As far as coal is concerned, here is an excerpt from an article from Salon:

                    “Conventional wisdom in Kentucky is that you cannot run and win a statewide race without the blessing of coal,” explained Curtis Morrison, a progressive strategist and blogger who ran for the state Senate last year and is now affiliated with the Progress Kentucky super PAC.

                    He pointed out that many of the Democratic strategists dissing Judd in the press have ties to coal and coal-friendly candidates: “It’s corrupt, there’s money behind it.”

                    But, he told Salon, times are changing and Judd could break the paradigm. “Mountaintop removal is such an obscene practice for the people living in Appalachia…that they’ve turned against it. At first they held their tongue, but now coal companies are bailing on miners’ pensions, and people are up in arms,” he said."

                    If Judd runs a strong campaign against a devastating practice like mountaintop removal, for example, who knows what could happen with public opinion? As you can see by the poll linked to in the article, the practice is not popular. It just seems as though no one has had the spine to run against it. And she'll have a much bigger megaphone than any relatively generic Dem career politician who might be a safer option.

                    You could be right and she could bomb out of the gate, but I'm not quite sold on that yet, so it's just something to chew on. :)

                    22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

                    by GReen4994 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 01:42:49 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  Nick Clooney did better than anyone since (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B, askew

            except Ken Lucas, and he only ran a point and a half behind Lucas.

            Clooney makes the opposite point than you are trying to make.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:56:15 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  nobody since Lucas has tried (0+ / 0-)

              nice try.  Believe what you want.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 01:20:11 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  What??? (0+ / 0-)

              Nick Clooney ran multiple points behind pre-2006 Ken Lucas, and only got 44% of the vote!

              Clooney actually ran ahead of Lucas's 2006 return by a point (Lucas got 43%).

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:10:31 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thanks for reminding me of (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, ArkDem14

                of how badly Lucas did when he tried to come back, and in a Dem wave year no less!  An early poll had Lucas up by double digits I recall...the DCCC got all excited, but Lucas got blown out.  We did get KY-03 though.

              •  You sound confused (0+ / 0-)

                Davis beat Lucas in 2006 by 8.3%
                David beat Clooney in 2004 by 10%

                And again, no one since then has done as well as Clooney.

                As for Clooney running behind what Lucas did when he was an incumbent, c'mon, that's just a silly thing to even mention.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:37:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's only because the (0+ / 0-)

                  third party candidates got more in 2006 than in 2004. The raw vote percentage that Lucas got was less than what Clooney got, so no I am not confused.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 04:16:55 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  A candidate like Allison Lundergan Grimes (6+ / 0-)

      who is young and lacks a long record would be the ideal candidate, in addition to her connections to the Clintons and the state Dem establishment. The goal in Kentucky is to make McConnell the issue. He has always been successful in making his opponent the issue.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 06:42:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree and is she seriously looking into it? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'd guess she wouldn't really start making rumblings until after the military voting bill is shepherded through.

        But yes, she has a limited record for him to exploit and has a full accent.  And she's willing to go the extra mile.  The most he could do is dig up some vague statements she might have made years ago.

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:04:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  She is going to stay quiet as long as possible (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

          If you see one of the Clintons having a state party fundraiser, that would be a big clue.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:31:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I just think that someone prominent like Judd (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nonsensoleum, JGibson, LordMike, askew

        would have a better chance of MAKING McConnell the issue. By virtue of her prominence, her history in Kentucky, her family's history, etc., people will listen to her more so than a typical establishment politician who is not as well known.

        People love the idea of a Washington outsider who cares about helping people crusading against dysfunction, and Mitch McConnell is the perfect foil for a populist outsider vs. insider theme.

        She is incredibly intelligent and well-versed in public policy, and I think people will be willing to listen to her reasoning. I also think the enthusiasm she would generate not only among Kentucky Dems but among progressives nationwide should not be discounted — AND PEOPLE DON'T LIKE MCCONNELL. Do you think that enthusiasm would still not be enough to overcome her weaknesses?

        22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

        by GReen4994 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:46:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No. (6+ / 0-)

          Judd is so so so easy to nuke with negative ads.

          Pro Choice
          Anti Coal (this one is HUGE in Kentucky)
          Lives in Tennessee/Scotland.

          She's basically Lynn Swann (who ran for PA Gov in 2006) but White, female, liberal, and in a tougher state.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:15:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I understand some of her viewpoints don't fit KY (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            very well. But depending on how she frames her vulnerable issues and which issues she plays offense on, I think she has a decent chance at making this a race. Again, she's going to have a ton of money, a ton of enthusiasm and a ton of free media. And McConnell has plenty of vulnerabilities himself.

            My whole take on this is that won't the campaign matter? Not just attack ads from McConnell, but the actual campaign? I could obviously be wrong, but I just think that her celebrity works in her favor in this case. She can't be as easily nuked as someone more unknown, because everyone knows her and she will have a chance to explain her views.

            Although she doesn't currently live in-state, her dedication to and love for Kentucky cannot be denied. Almost every article I've read cites her diehard and well-known commitment to Kentucky basketball, which sounds unimportant but should, in addition to her childhood there, defuse any charges of carpetbagging.

            With a warchest certain to be huge (and I'm assuming Kentucky is a relatively inexpensive state), she'll be more than able to explain herself and put McConnell on the defense.

            22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

            by GReen4994 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:31:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You know... (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              skibum59, GReen4994, askew, gabjoh

              ...people keep bringing up the issues as a reason why she can't win in Kentucky.  I don't think issues are as important as some are making it out to be.  When have actual issues ever decided an election?  If issues were that important, seniors would have voted for Obama in a landslide.

              Someone did a study on this last year, and they found that most voters care way more about the candidate than the issues they represent.  If they get to like the candidate, they naturally also warm up to the issues that candidate presents, even if those issues are in conflict with their own.  We saw that phenomenon with Bush after 9/11.  Many left leaning voters were so ga-ga over him after his little WTC speech, they started appreciating an agenda that was entirely foreign to their nature.  When Romney rehabilitated himself after the first debate into the great white hope, people who had formerly hated his policies, suddenly thought they weren't that bad.  Scott Brown was the ultimate example of this phenomenon.  He had democrats voting for him with the most bizarre, ridiculous and irrational of excuses  ("Brown will make Obama more liberal", "Obama will get more of his policies through with Brown in the Senate").  They had to rationalize their love of the candidate with the fact that he stood diametrically opposed to everything they believed in.

              The candidate that matters way more than the issues they represent.  That's how someone like Sherrod Brown can win in a Lean R state like Ohio.  It's how Scott Walker can win in a left leaning state like Wisconsin.  A celebrity candidate like Judd could potentially transcend her platform (just like Scott Brown did), which is why we are seeing such a smear campaign by McConnell.  I'd love to see some polling, but considering that they are still piling on, my guess is that it isn't working very well.  His mistake is the same mistake we make as Democrats--focusing on the issues.  Issues really only matter in extreme cases.  He's going to need to do better than "She's a hollywood liberal", since clearly the folks in Kentucky think more of her than that.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:27:18 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Please explain the conclusion (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                skibum59, LordMike, DCCyclone
                He's going to need to do better than "She's a hollywood liberal", since clearly the folks in Kentucky think more of her than that.
                How do you figure that they think more of her than that?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 11:13:03 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's what the article says (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  GReen4994, LordMike, gabjoh

                  and also it's obvious from the poling results.

                  Whatever people think she'd do in the end, right now she starts out as very well liked, despite whatever level of "Hollywood liberal" they perceive.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:18:53 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Once they know her views better (0+ / 0-)

                    through advertising by McConnell, I don't think any such initial impressions will hold.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:34:32 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't think she's all that well-liked. (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, gabjoh

                    Not that I see evidence she's toxic, either.  

                    PPP had her at 42/36/22--before a campaign.  High name rec and +6.  Ok.

                    Jack Conway, after years in prominent office and a heated Senate campaign, is at 38/31/30.   Alison Lundergan Grimes is at 29/15/56.  Less well-known, sure.

                    The article is rather lacking in evidence of "Kentucky voters' almost gut-level support and trust in Ashley Judd".  A couple of people said nice things.  Doesn't mean much, I don't think.  And they were asking people in her hometown!

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

                    by Xenocrypt on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 01:23:31 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  And so? (0+ / 0-)

                      You guys seem to want it both ways.  Either:

                      1) she has a personal popularity now, but will lose that when her progressive views are attacked in the campaign

                      or

                      2) people already are familiar with her and her views and she still manages 42% approval and 43% vote share

                      She can't somehow be performing better than Grimes/etc now if it is both true that her views are unpopular and she is personally not that popular.

                      Far more likely is what the polling (and article) shows us: she is personally liked, even if her politics are not as liked.

                      And, it is likely she will still be personally liked in a campaign even by some voters who will choose to vote against her based on politics.  Why is that so hard to accept?

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 01:54:49 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I'm not "you guys". I'm just me. (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        NMLib, James Allen, MichaelNY

                        Anyway, I think she's decently well-liked, but not super-popular.  

                        I don't know if even that level will hold, since she hasn't been a partisan political figure, and that can make people less popular, once they have to associate themselves with polarizing issues and so on.

                        But she has decent favorability and high name rec.  I don't know if that means "people are already familiar with her and her views".  Hell, I don't really know much about her views.

                        As for her polling numbers:

                        She does just as well against McConnell in PPP's poll as Jack Conway and as Jerry Abramson.  Probably not coincidentally, Judd, Conway, and Abramson are also the three best-known Democrats that PPP tested, even though Abramson isn't particularly popular, and in fact has a net negative favorability.

                        I think in every head-to-head variation that PPP tested, Mitch got between 46% and 48%, which further suggests that the differences between the Democrats are heavily influenced by name recognition.  

                        So I don't see any evidence that she's a superstar, but I also don't see any evidence she's toxic.  One or the other might happen in a campaign, I suppose.  She's very accomplished, but campaigns are their own skill, although of course there are still good first-time candidates.

                        And of course, I also don't think we should make the mistake of treating "elections as if they were sports events talking place on a level playing field, with the key factors in winning coming down to the candidate and the campaign."  Some of the election will turn on the campaign, but a lot of it will turn on the nature of Kentucky and on the national mood.

                        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

                        by Xenocrypt on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 02:22:26 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  No one said she was a "superstar" (0+ / 0-)

                          The quoted section above says the folks in Kentucky think more of her than as merely a Hollywood liberal.  Why dispute that?

                          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                          by tommypaine on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:39:32 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  She's a popular actor (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, NMLib, itskevin

                          Her favorables are almost certainly tied to her popularity as an actor, not opinions on her politics.

                          Most Kentuckyians have no clue what Judd's politics are, and have never thought about it.

                          So these people responding to a telephone survey are asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her, and even if they're well-prompted by preceding questions that this is a political survey, they don't think of her as a political figure.

                          And all this regards an election that, to virtually all voters, is a long long long long long time away, so they don't have politics on the mind and don't really care in the first place.

                          Judd's fundamentals are poor.  She can raise money, yes, but we've seen big-money candidates crash by double-digits, after putting only a short-term scare into the opponent.  Meanwhile, yes "Hollywood liberal" will work to crush her, unless Team McConnell fucks up and somehow doesn't do the attack messaging effectively (which happens, campaigns can be surprisingly bad sometimes, but McConnell's have always been good so don't expect it).

                          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:50:14 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  Good point. I wasn't trying to say the article is (0+ / 0-)

                      evidence that most or even a majority of KY voters trust her. But clearly that kind of sentiment is out there in a least a few people's minds, and probably more than people are giving it credit for (they can't be the only 3 in the state that feel that way).

                      I get that it's her hometown, but I just think that people are being a little premature in discounting the possibility that a good amount of KY voters exist like those in the article: unhappy with McConnell/DC insiders, admire Judd's character and heart, respect her honesty.

                      A strong, well-funded Judd campaign that nails McConnell's vulnerabilities and focuses on her strengths could theoretically (key word) exploit those sentiments. She could just as easily crash and burn, but I just think her candidacy is too unique (with few, if any, other candidacies that are truly analogous to hers) for her to be universally dismissed at this stage.

                      22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

                      by GReen4994 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 01:58:16 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Her hometown is also bluer than KY. (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, DCCyclone, NMLib

                        I'm not sure if I got all the precincts, but I think it gave Romney about 54% of the vote, which is a fair amount less than the state's 60%+.  

                        And I frankly assume the reporter went downtown, which is probably where the town's Obama precincts are.  Not that the people interviewed necessarily live there, I suppose.

                        Anyway, I'm sure many people in KY admire some of Judd's characteristics.  But that doesn't mean she'd make an unusually good Senate candidate.

                        As I said on Twitter, which incumbent Republican Senators have lost in federally red states in recent memory?  Not a lot, and mostly in waves, and mostly to moderate Democrats who were also experienced politicians (Pryor/Hagan/Tester/McCaskill/Carnahan/Begich?  Am I forgetting anyone?).

                        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

                        by Xenocrypt on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 02:34:22 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

              •  Ohio is purple, not Lean R (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, DCCyclone, R30A

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                by jncca on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 04:59:49 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Both Buono and Judd are doomed (4+ / 0-)

      Gov. Christie isn't "inevitable" because we think he is; he's inevitable because he just is. He's too popular to beat, especially with a C-list candidate like Buono.

      And Judd is just too liberal to win in Kentucky -- which isn't even one of the two places she lives. I really wish she'd run for TN-05, a short drive from her home the next county over, instead.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 06:52:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  She's B-list, not C-list (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, GReen4994, Skaje, MichaelNY, itskevin

        C-list would be a County official.

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:05:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Fair enough. But my point is if voters remember (0+ / 0-)

        or are reminded of his opposition to same-sex marriage, raising the minimum wage and his rejection of the ARC tunnel to name a few, he would be more vulnerable. We just need someone who can put pressure on him on these substantive policy issues, which is where Buono's lack of name recognition is a big obstacle.

        I'm aware that this is a lot of wishful thinking, but don't you think if the mainstream press highlighted actual issues like these instead of simply allowing him to glide to victory based on current polls we would have a chance to move the needle a bit? As people have commented below, Buono is the former Senate Majority Leader of the NJ Senate, so she's hardly a C-list candidate.

        22, PA-17, Democrat, movie lover — "You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough." - Mae West

        by GReen4994 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:59:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  "which isn't even one of the two places she lives" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That right there underscores how doomed she is.  Your li'l ol' internet comment by itself just smothers her.  Put your line verbatim in a McConnell ad, and it will be parroted by political reporters for a week, maybe a month, maybe all cycle.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:53:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think things will tighten in NJ (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, itskevin

      Christie could be tarred with the AshBritt thing as a line of attack on cleaning up after Sandy.  Do I think Buono will win?  No, but there is a remote chance.  But I do think Dems will hold the legislature due to ticket splitting combined with a Dem-leaning map and this being a blue state with strong Dem machines where it matters.  For me, the races this year I am tuning into especially are NJ leg and VA-Gov.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:10:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  hopefully if Christie remains strong (0+ / 0-)

        the senate race will help balance the top of the ticket's effects.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:30:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's not until 2014 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          but still, I think coattails won't happen much.  Think AR-Gov, NV-Gov, and NM-Gov in 2010.  Right now, people approve of Christie boosted by his post-Sandy rhetoric (which was good), but they don't think he should have a GOP legislature.  Last polls showed Dems with a 7-15% lead on the generic legislative ballot (but skew that by the fact the legislature map is Dem-leaning).  The key is making sure Democratic turnout doesn't go lower than 2009 and reinforcing incumbency effects.  If Christie wins re-election (which I expect at this point in time), I won't be upset so long as Dems hold the legislative majority and do decently lower down the ballots.  But I do intend to do real volunteer work for Buono though.  I've already signed up and got an assignment to help finish gathering the 10K signatures from NJ Dems she wants by the end of the month.

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:38:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I think they'll tighten (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But I can't see Buono getting over 45%.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:37:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm from New Jersey (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, skibum59

      I agree with the consensus here that that race will "tighten" a little, but I can't see Buono getting close to pulling off an upset.  Christie will come down to Earth a tad, just playing the odds here, but the loud anger that was directed at him with his attacks on teachers has greatly evaporated.

      A lot of folks down here appreciated Christie's post-storm rhetoric, people believe that the disaster was more important than any election and Christie performed well.

      I find him abhorrent though but you can't trump personal popularity sometimes.  

      That being said, Buono will find herself in better shape and probably run a decent campaign but it's just hard to take down a locally popular (and nationally popular to boot) politician.

      #ConstructNotObstruct http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com

      by RVKU on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:59:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I have two midterms this weekend (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, abgin

    and a presentation on Tuesday.

    I'm in meltdown mode. :/

  •  Think I might do another segment of Taking Back (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, Audrid

    the House this weekend, Spring Break is starting soon so what better way to ring it in!

    #ConstructNotObstruct http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com

    by RVKU on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 07:59:52 PM PST

  •  CO 06 (4+ / 0-)

    I know it's not until 2014, but that's now next year.  Obama carried this district by about 5 points, but Mike Coffman, a rigidly conservative Republican, was reelected by about 2 points.  Now Andrew Romanoff, former CO Speaker of the House, has announced he's running against Coffman.

    If the Democrats can't swing this district, they really can't swing any.  Already gave Romanoff money; will work for him next year.

    "A very popular error: having the courage of one's convictions; rather it is a matter of having the courage for an attack on one's convictions." -- Friedrich Nietzsche

    by John R on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:03:24 PM PST

  •  McKeon (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    econdem, KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Just read a note at Red Racing Horses that Buck McKeon [CA] is considering retirement.  No reference.

    How good of a pickup could this be?

  •  perhaps the biggest issue in state politics right (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, redrelic17, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

    now, or at least in the minds of the writers at the Oregonian and Republican legislators, is public employee pension reform.  The basic problem is that Republicans in particular and pro-"reform" people in general seem to think they can unilaterally reduce benefits that were bargained for decades ago and have already been earned.  That's not how contracts work.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:37:17 PM PST

    •  Thank goodness they're back in the minority there (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      How is Kitzhaber on this stuff?

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:38:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  unfortunately the Republicans are (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin, MichaelNY

        supporting a bill that includes his proposals.  My dad was Kitzhaber's campaign's adviser on the pension system, and now my dad is a vocal critic of Kitzhaber's plan.  The Oregonian ran an editorial a month or so ago specifically calling out my dad; it was surreal.  Labor thinks the proposals are unconstitutional, even legislative counsel's (the lawyers who are on staff for the legislature, who write the bills) memo was that it probably would not fly in state courts.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 08:52:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't follow. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Are Republicans introducing a bill that screws with pensions but incorporates some of Kitzhaber's stuff as sweetener or is there a bill already pushed by Kitzhaber that does some of what he wants and what the Republicans want as well?

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 09:31:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  he put forth a proposal and they put it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            in their bill.  Every senate Republican has signed on to that bill.  The R senate leader said he wouldn't give a Democratic reform bill a single vote unless it had enough Dem votes to pass, meaning a Dem bill would have to get every Democrat on board.  He said he wants to force Democrats to vote against labor, and not a single one to have an out.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 09:46:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Is there a strategy out? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 09:48:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I really don't know (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

                but they walk a tight-rope.  When Kulongoski got reforms, the public employee unions became divided and SEIU backed his primary opponent in 2006.  Then one of the legislators who had backed the reforms, Greg Macpherson, ran for AG in 2008 and SEIU endorsed John Kroger because of that, and spent a ton supporting him.  Macpherson lost a race by 10 points that previously everyone thought was his.

                If Democrats are divided this will end poorly.  Dems need to hold together and get some of the public employee unions on board.  Pass what they can agree on now and save some money for other state spending.  With the economy and employment continuing to improve, state tax receipts will rise, savings implemented now will reduce the state's obligations, and everyone will breathe easier next session.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 10:13:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  1970 Midterm election (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, MichaelNY, BKGyptian89, Paleo

    Found this neat coverage of the midterms from CBS

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    The Dems made mediocre gains in the house, actually lost seats in the senate, and did well in the governors races.

    The big takeaways:

    Vance Hartke barely held on in Indiana, guess it's no surprise he would go down to defeat with Lugar in 1976. Still it is nice that we're back holding this seat again with Donnelly.

    Apparently Reagan was partially blamed for not doing enough to protect a senate seat and the Republican Assembly in CA.

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 09:08:52 PM PST

    •  yeah it was a standpat election (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      i do wonder what would have happened if Humphrey won in 1968. I'm thinking the dems could have lost close to ten senate seats.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 10:12:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nixon and Agnew went around red baiting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

      And although they had some successes, fell short in a senate class that was heavy with Democrats after good Democratic years in '58 and '64.

      www.buonoforgovernor.com

      by Paleo on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:46:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Some of the 1970 Senate races (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

      had results that seem hard to believe given today's state voting patterns.  Utah and Wyoming reelected Democratic Senators, and Hawaii a Republican--the last time any of those states elected a Senator from that party.

      In Texas, none other than George H.W. Bush lost a Senate race to Lloyd Bentsen (who ran as a conservadem, defeating the more liberal Ralph Yarborough in the primary); while New York elected (though only with a plurality) what was easily its most conservative senator in recent history, James Buckley.  Maryland, meanwhile, ended up with two Republican Senators when J. Glenn Beall Jr. defeated incumbent Joseph Tydings (both are/were the sons of former Senators, Tydings by adoption.)

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 02:10:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That 1970 Texas U.S. Senate race... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        ...was well-documented in Richard Ben Cramer's book What It Takes.

        Per Cramer, Bush ran for the seat in the first place because Yarborough was vulnerable in November, but Bentsen's primary upset win crushed Bush's chances.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:37:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  LDS Leader agrees with Obama immigration plan (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.sltrib.com/...

    This is huge news; American Mormons are basically the opposite of American Catholics in that they respect and pay a lot of attention to the words of their religious leaders. The LDS Church endorsing the moderate Utah Compact was interesting enough, but outright endorsing the DREAM Act and the rest of Obama's immigration plan is a fantastically large shift (and a progressive one, at that). I mean, the legislature legally agreeing with the Utah Compact basically passed solely due to the LDS Church's influence, so the charismatic, popular third-in-command of the Church publicly embracing it is a clear sign of what the LDS Church thinks about immigration.

    I am very excited right now. This will definitely affect the votes and elections of LDS lawmakers, especially in Utah.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 10:26:58 PM PST

    •  Is this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      a sign of a leftward shift in Mormon politics?

      I mean, is it similar to younger generations in non-Mormon communities, where the younger people are more liberal?

      •  Probably, civil unions and anti-discrimination law (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Are also getting more popular in Utah, mainly among the youth (of which I'm a member). There's even been high-profile events involving individual Mormons supporting the gay community, and having no consequences whatsoever.

        So things are getting better, slowly.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 10:46:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  McAdams getting electing SL County Mayor (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, MichaelNY

          was a sign of that, especially in a year when all Utah Counties swung hard to Romney.

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 10:53:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed (4+ / 0-)

            McAdams was basically the biggest booster of anti-discrimination policies while in the legislature; he managed to get Chris Buttars, the most odious Republican in the entire state, to sign on with at least the SLC anti-discrimination ordinance (which the Republicans wanted to overturn). The fact that a Utah Republican brought forth a statewide anti-discrimination bill this year is easily due almost entirely to McAdam's influence (and his good relations with LDS leaders).

            And he was primarily elected (at a nearly 10 point win) mostly due to excited moderates, progressives, and Hispanics. He's very progressive (especially for Utah), and is probably the most powerful liberal in the state. Still doesn't have as much influence and support as Matheson, but if Matheson decided to opt out of re-election, I bet McAdams could replace him.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 11:17:00 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That sounds farfetched (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, James Allen, jncca

              Matheson is an almost uniquely talented politician. The district he won is so heavily Republican, I find it just short of impossible to imagine any other Democratic winning it. And a progressive would have no chance. Please explain why you think I'm wrong.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 11:35:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  perhaps by the time Matheson moves on (0+ / 0-)

                things will be different.  And it is the least conservative district in the state.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:06:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  McAdams is also a talented politician (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

                He faced a year of almost total Republican victory, with nearly every other Democrat in Utah (besides Matheson himself) falling to the Romneygeddon, and he not only won, but easily surpassed Matheson's margin of victory.

                As others have said, most of Matheson's district was in Salt Lake County, so if McAdams can do better than Matheson, he's just as good as Matheson. Salt Lake County has, as you noted, a lot of Republicans, and Utah County even moreso, but McAdams wouldn't have to win too much of Utah County.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 11:07:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Thanks for the explanation (0+ / 0-)

                  I'm skeptical, though, because you also say he's progressive.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 11:23:13 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  McAdams is very good (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

                    at explaining progressive policies to conservatives; in 2011 he managed to pass 11 bills in the Utah legislature as a SLC Dem (and Republicans hate Salt Lake City Democrats).

                    And again, he won by 33,000 votes (a little over 9% of the vote), which necessarily required Republicans voting for him, knowing full well that he was a SLC Democrat (which basically means "liberal Democrat" in Utah-speak).

                    And he's always supported progressive policies, the anti-discrimination legislation, the stronger policies against credit card fraud, he voted against outlawing recordings of agricultural operations, and so forth.

                    He's already got his name out in the populated parts of Utah (mainly Salt Lake County, but Utah County pays attention as well), so he's already beaten the curse of the generic Utah Democrat that always looses because they're a Democrat.

                    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                    by Gygaxian on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 09:39:58 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  It's easier to win Co. Exec. than Congress (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  as a member of the opposite party.  I'd be willing to rate a race with McAdams Lean R but he's not Matheson.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:20:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Does this mean (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Gygaxian, ArkDem14

              that at least the SLC area may be getting more Democratic in the relatively near future?  Or at least see an era of domination by moderate/liberal Republicans?

            •  I wonder if the Republicans will just give in (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Gygaxian, ArkDem14

              and do a vote sink Dem district in SLC, especially if the state gains another district after 2020. And even more especially if Matheson is still around then; they may just figure he's the Undead Democrat who can not be destroyed.

              •  Nah (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                From a gerrymandering perspective, Utah doesn't need a Dem sink any more than Connecticut needs a GOP sink.  Considering the difference in partisanship between those two states, even less.  Even with 5 seats, Utah can very easily be drawn so that every seat is extremely Republican.  I seriously doubt they will let up on Matheson...why would they?  All they need to do is be ready the next GOP wave year with a decent candidate.  They had the former in 2010 but only got the latter in 2012.  Next time they'll be ready, and they will beat him (if he is still serving at the time).

                •  not necessarily (5+ / 0-)

                  2012 was probably the GOP's best case, as (1) a Mormon at the top of the ticket ramped up GOP turnout in that district even more than the 2010 red wave, and (2) Matheson had a lot of new territory, so his incumbency advantage was as low as it will be all decade. I think he's likely to hold that seat until the next redistricting.

                  SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                  by sacman701 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:39:43 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Perhaps (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, ArkDem14

                    But wave years are funny things, and have a habit of turning out "safe" incumbents.

                    Other than that, I do agree though, Matheson will probably be safe in any other election for the reasons you mention.  Rothenberg released his early 2014 list and put Matheson as a tossup, which is ridiculous.  They threw everything at him last year and he pulled through still.

                  •  That's a folly to think that with confidence (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY

                    Ben Chandler survived the 2010 wave, only to lose to the same guy in 2012.

                    A tough district is a tough district no matter if you've survived it before.

                    Matheson will be vulnerable every 2 years.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:39:49 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Of course, but I trust Matheson to pull it out. (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, James Allen, jncca, Gygaxian

                      He's shown at least twice now that he can win even when the deck has been radically re-stacked against him.  2002 as a freshman in a district drawn into a reverse L that takes in a bunch of rural area and St. George and ties it with a third of SLC.  2012 when the top of the ticket was a Mormon Republican causing all counties to swing towards the Republican and running against a candidate the GOP was drooling over for obvious reasons.

                      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:58:56 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Nah (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                There's no benefit to them doing that versus continuing to chop up SLC into multiple districts. Maybe they haven't beaten Matheson yet, but they still have a good chance of doing so in future cycles. And once he's gone, all the districts will be safe for them, there's no threat from anyone aside from Matheson.

                •  This is why I really hope (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  That the Utah Dem leaders take their jobs seriously and build up another Matheson-style candidate soonish. Matheson won't be here forever, and though he'll almost certainly always win, the Utah GOP will just make the district redder and redder until he leaves. McAdams is my personal favorite for being Matheson v2.0 (but much better), but there needs to be some kind of a bench instead of just a barstool (political furniture analogies are hard, by the way).

                  Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                  by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 11:25:50 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Might be the one way to get rid of him (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                "Holdenize" him.

                Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

                by R30A on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 03:33:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  IL GOP: Meeting to remove chairman Brady postponed (5+ / 0-)

    until further notice.  (If you aren't familiar with the story, Republicans are pissed at him due to his support for Marriage Equality.)

    Also, earlier Sen Mark Kirk decided not to attend the vote and has thrown his support to retain Brady as chairman.  

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 10:51:24 PM PST

    •  This means one of two things (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      Either the IL GOP is delaying Brady's firing or they don't have the votes to fire him.

      It's worth noting that the conservative blog Illinois Review reported a while back that the anti-Brady movement had enough votes on the Republican state central committee to fire Brady.

      If there aren't enough votes to fire Brady, what little credibility Illinois Review has is gone.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 01:06:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov/WI-5 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    This is a week and a half old, but Jim Sensenbrenner, who is regarded as a very conservative Republican, recently spoke on the House floor in defense of the Voting Rights Act.

    Given how WI-5 is full of bigots to the point that nobody with a D beside their name can win a general election there, Sensenbrenner may face a primary challenge if he runs for re-election, although Sensenbrenner is conservative enough that he should be able to ward off any primary challenge. Also, there is the possibility that Sensenbrenner may retire in 2014, possibly leading to a contentious, multi-way Republican primary that could take up a lot of money and resources that would otherwise be used to support Scott Walker's WI-Gov re-election campaign.

    Also, there is a fake Jim Sensenbrenner Twitter account that does not note anywhere that it is a parody account. (Here's his real Twitter account). Even I was fooled into thinking that the fake Sensenbrenner Twitter page was a real one. A parody Twitter account that is designed to look like an official Twitter page for Cullen Werwie, Scott Walker's spokesman, was recently removed by Twitter (Werwie does not appear to have a real Twitter page), so there are rules on Twitter that require that parody accounts be labeled as such or face possible removal from Twitter.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 01:01:06 AM PST

    •  I can't imagine Rep. Sensenbrenner... (7+ / 0-)

      Would actually face a primary over defending the VRA, which was reauthorized almost unanimously by Congress just a few years ago. I wouldn't be shocked if he retires, though.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 02:42:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Response (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, skibum59, jncca

      It's highly unlikely that the VRA would draw out a primary challenger against Sensenbrenner, let alone any Republican anywhere, even in the South (at least a credible one). The law is pretty broadly popular and non-controversial, so I see no reason to believe he'd face a serious threat in a primary. I also highly doubt that Walker will be wanting for money and resources for his re-election campaign even if Sensenbrenner retires.

      I think it's pretty clear that the first account is a fake Twitter account. Every single one of those tweets is dripping with sarcasm. Just read his Bio.

      He's been Wisconsin's Fifth Congressional District Representative since 1979. Now get off his lawn.
      And for examples from that account:
      With all of the loud children in this hotel, I'm thinking gin gimlets are the only way to salvage this night.

      The worst thing about the Country Springs Hotel? Happy children stinking of chlorine. They're ruining my thirst for gin.

      Georgia wants to ban vulgar photoshopping. I do too, just to stop the pictures of my head on Lance Armstrong's body. Not funny hippies.

      I back English-only legislation because when I stiff a service worker out of a tip, I want to understand their smart remarks.

      To be honest, if you can't read the sarcasm in these tweets, you probably deserve to get fooled. :| I also know there isn't such a rule against parody accounts with explicit labeling. For example, this Rahm Emanuel parody Twitter (NSFW) has been around for awhile and it hasn't been taken down, as well as this Chuck Norris parody Twitter and this Bill Clinton parody Twitter (NSFW). If you're doing it right, as the Sensenbrenner account does, there shouldn't be a need to point out that it's a parody because it should be obvious.

      To top it off, I'm not quite sure why this matters at all to an election site. Twitter accounts for political figures are very common, and parody accounts aren't exactly rare either. I can't understand how these tidbits about bloggers and twitter accounts contribute to these digests.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:07:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I posted a tweet from the Fake Sensenbrenner page (0+ / 0-)

        ...on a DKE digest a while back in which I incorrectly thought that Sensenbrenner was actually telling three potential Republican candidates in a hypothetical open-seat WI-5 race that he wasn't going to quit anytime soon.

        Here's the tweet in question

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:28:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Did you not read what AndySonSon just told you? (0+ / 0-)

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 05:07:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Western Australia (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, ehstronghold, germankid101

    The ABC have called the Western Australian State election for the Liberal and National Parties. Looking about as grim for Labor as polling suggested.

    •  Somehow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Alizarin Indigo

      Labor managed to pick up a swing towards them in Albany and hold the seat. Wow.

      What's more stunning is the collapse of the Green vote though. If I were Christine Milne I'd be worried especially since one of their senate seats in WA is up for reelection this year.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 07:43:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Peter Watson in Albany (0+ / 0-)

        is an amazingly strong local rep! The part of Albany in the federal district of O'Connor votes more than 60% for conservative parties.

        The fall in the Green vote is probably not completely devastating for Scott Ludlum's chances of holding the sixth WA senate seats for the Greens. He only won 9.3% of the vote in 2007 and the Greens look like getting maybe 8.5% in the state equivalent of the senate.    

        That said I see Greens pickups in Victoria and New South Wales as more likely the a retain in WA.

  •  Had a great Political Seminar yesterday (4+ / 0-)

    I'm participating in a two day program at Sacramento with USC where we get to meet people such as Darrell Steinberg and Jerry Brown's top staff members.

    Today, we are going to a panel on education. It's been a fun experience so far and I will let you know how today goes.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:24:07 AM PST

  •  Silver Linings Playbook and Delaware County (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Adam B, Xenocrypt, DCCyclone

    Just saw the movie, and was weirded out by it. A very accurate portrayal of my home county in the Philly suburbs. I never thought a film would really get "Delco" so well. Frankly, it included a lot of things I find hard to love about my home - over the top Eagles obsession, loudmouth neighbors, and our godawful accent (mercifully toned down for the film).

    There was barely anything political in the film. I will note that they used the Ridley police in the film - the most notoriously racist and obnoxious of the county police forces.

    As a white person, I never get pulled over in Delaware County. The only time I was pulled over it was night and I had Georgia tags on my car, because I had just moved back from Atlanta. Hmm...

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:53:01 AM PST

  •  Representatives you should know: James Murray. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

    I'm just starting my analysis of voting in the 84th Congress, but I looked at one-dimensional liberalism scores vs. the preliminary Presidential results I have, and noticed a name I hadn't heard: James Murray, of IL-03.  

    After beating Republican incumbent Fred Busbey in 1956, Murray only served a single term before losing to Republican Emmett F. Byrne in 1956.  That's consistent with the Presidential number I have for IL-03, with Ike getting 55% of the vote in 1952--a swing seat.

    But Murray is apparently an important figure in Chicago history:

    Born in Chicago, Illinois, Murray was elected to the Chicago City Council as 18th Ward alderman in 1959. He served eight years during which he was vice chair of the finance committee and president pro tempore. He sponsored the city's first fair housing law, which passed by four votes. Opposition to his fair housing activism resulted in his losing a 1966 judicial election, but he became a judge of the Cook County Circuit Court in 1970. Judge Murray was on the Appellate Court from 1986 until his retirement in 1994.
    I don't think I need to remind anyone how incendiary an issue fair housing was in Chicago.  Here's some more detail:
    Mr. Murray, 18th Ward alderman from 1959 to 1967, took a tough position in 1963 when he drafted the city's fair housing ordinance and later succeeded in passing it in the City Council.

    The ordinance required real estate companies to operate without racial discrimination and forbade racial blockbusting tactics in order to preserve stable neighborhoods.

    In response to his stance, white residents of his ward, fearing an influx of blacks, picketed outside his home. Mr. Murray also received threatening phone calls and letters, and his children were assigned police bodyguards for a time.

    Afterward, he failed to carry his own ward in a losing contest for Circuit Court judge and decided not to run for re-election as alderman.

    That article gives a bit of detail about how he gave opinions favoring both sides at different points in Harold Washington's "Council Wars".  

    Still, there is some nuance here.  According to this book, Murray's fair housing ordinance was pushed upon him by then-Mayor Daley as a milder alternative to an ordinance pushed by Aldermen Despres and Chew.  But perhaps that was the most that could have been hoped for.  According to this book, while the law "lacked teeth", some "sixteen white aldermen" voted against it, "the most ever to defy Daley on any measure"!

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:01:05 PM PST

    •  Intreresting, didn't know Daley had a good side. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:05:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Heh. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

        I don't think it's so simple.  

        I doubt Despres and Chew saw it as Daley's good side; probably more as Daley's opportunistic side.  This book called it a "subterfuge" and a "pale imitation of the Despres/Chew proposal".

        But, as the book continues, "most of the white aldermen were afraid to vote even for the machine's toothless bill".  So who knows?  I doubt the bill did any harm, even if Despres, Chew, and other "critics" thought it was "designed to co-opt the open housing movement".

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:11:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Perhaps the Despres/Chew proposal (0+ / 0-)

          didn't have the votes to pass but his weaker version did?  I take it the Despres/Chew proposal was more progressive?

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:04:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for posting this! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, jncca

      Murray's son (James C. Murray) was a judge on the IL State  Court who I helped with a judicial campaign last cycle (he ended up withdrawing from the race.) The apple didn't fall far from the tree as the son is a class act who I enjoyed working with.

  •  IL-Local (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, DrPhillips, abgin, ramesh

    Two of the four candidates running for village president of Dixmoor, Illinois are a mother, Wendy Casey and her son, Randall Casey!

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 12:19:21 PM PST

  •  Rothenberg put his... (4+ / 0-)

    ...ratings for House Races in 2014 out.  He has CA-31 and CO-06 listed as tossups among the Republican held seats.

    http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/...

    If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

    by CO Democrat on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 02:27:28 PM PST

    •  I know he doesn't want to rate seats (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      as leaning towards pickups this far out, but there's really no other way to characterize CA-31.  Also glad he recognizes just how vulnerable Valadao is, despite his easy win last year.

      He seems to have gone out of his way though to get an equal number on both sides, neglecting to even rank seats like WI-07 and WI-08 (Duffy and Ribble), WA-08 (Reichert), NJ-03 (Runyan), and CO-03 (Tipton).  Yet in the Dem-favored section, there are damn near impossible pickups for the GOP such as MN-07 (Peterson), IL-10 (Schneider), IL-17 (Bustos), and NY-24 (Maffei).  Unless he is rating those on the possibility of a GOP wave, but if so, then the previous seats should be listed because of the possibility of a Dem wave which would instantly put them in contention.

      Still though, not as bad as I expected from Rothenberg.

    •  hmm (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, DCCyclone

      CO6 is a tossup if not tilt R in a midterm. CA31, no. Obama won very easily and Miller is not a good fit. Aguilar would have won by double digits just like Takano did in the similar CA41. Miller might make it closer in a midterm year, but with any kind of a Dem GOTV effort I don't see how he gets to 50%. GOTV is also relatively easy in a vote by mail state such as CA.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 03:33:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: Don't know what Leo Weekly is, but (10+ / 0-)

    they are reporting that the DSCC is re-evaluating their support for Judd. They did another poll that shows her competitive, but it also shows Alison Lundergan Grimes to be much more competitive and that the race is winnable with her. As we all knew. They are now trying to recruit Grimes.

    http://fatlip.leoweekly.com/...

  •  KY-Sen: Judd reportedly ready to announce (5+ / 0-)

    around the Kentucky Derby. Also, Clinton spoke with and advised Grimes when he came to Kentucky to speak at an event.

    The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, whose leaders were cool to the high-risk but intriguing Judd candidacy, in recent days has taken new polls that show McConnell -- never an overwhelming winner despite his lofty status -- is more vulnerable to a Judd campaign than originally thought.

    Judd would hardly be a textbook candidate in a mostly red state with a Democratic governor that has not gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since Clinton in 1996. “Kentucky has changed a lot in recent years,” said Crit Luallen, the former state auditor and a potential candidate for governor.

    Being an “environmentalist” in Kentucky is a tricky matter. Among other things, Judd is a foe of “mountain-top removal” in strip mining, a hideous practice but nevertheless one that is defended in much of the coal fields of Eastern Kentucky. Those who oppose it are seen as outsiders who don’t understand the mountains.

    This week she got some political cover on that issue as state Rep. Greg Stumbo of Eastern Kentucky took a strong public position against the practice.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
    •  They see something, I just wish I knew exactly (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, drhoosierdem, gabjoh

      what it is: http://wkyufm.org/...
      Still, I want ALG, though she could run for Paul's seat in 2016 (especially if he makes a very uphill run for President).  But still, I want her this time.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 04:08:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  its not like losing to McConnell would end her (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, JDJase, redrelic17

        career.  She'd still be in office.  And a certain current governor of Kentucky also once lost to McConnell.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 04:56:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  She'll be worried about her future public image... (4+ / 0-)

          ...after McConnell has done his best to nuke her.  She doesn't want to be damaged goods for a run for office later.  That's a threat McConnell is deliberately putting out there to all comers, that he'll destroy them so handily he'll try to make them unelectable in later elections, too.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:48:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But she has limited material for him to work with (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, James Allen, MichaelNY

            and SID said he may legitimately be frightened of her.  I really hope the DSCC pushes her hard on this.  As I said, because of the fact she's never been in a position of controversy or making enemies, it makes her a harder target for him unless he wants to dig up vague statements from years ago.

            "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:54:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  She doesn't have material we know of. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              She also hasn't faced a dirty campaigner. Just a primary challenge and a joke of a Republican nominee. McConnell could pull up something, don't put it past him. It could be hyped but it could stick. You just never know and she understands this.

              Running for Senate she would also have to take definite stances on federal issues and would be more tied to the national party, not a winning formula for Democrats in Kentucky.

              She has much she can lose from running. I am not saying she is not the strongest candidate in the mix, she absolutely is, but I can certainly understand her hesitance.

          •  That is a specialty of his (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, DCCyclone

            As for Beshear he survived it, but he also didn't run for anything for ten years after. McConnell is brutal. He isn't afraid to play dirty.

    •  weird (0+ / 0-)

      Stumbo is from Floyd county, where coal is big. Maybe there aren't any mountaintop removal sites in his district.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 04:10:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've been thinking more about this race (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Chachy, MetroGnome

      and our dependence on East KY.  I know that every successful statewide Democrat has racked up huge margins in the area, but it's not the whole state.  It's more like 10% of the state.  Many Kentucky Democrats have won by margins large enough that they could have actually lost East KY heavily but still won...that just hasn't happened yet.

      Of course, if West KY also goes GOP, and you add in the reflexively Republican counties in the middle and along the southern border, then a path to victory starts seeming impossible.  Doubtful a Dem could lose everything outside of Louisville and still win.

  •  Mike Rogers is looking at running for MI Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, drhoosierdem

    according to the National Journal, but as they note, he would have to give up his seat as Chair of the Intelligence Committee.  What might give him a reason to run is that he only has one more term after this to be Chair of the committee.    

    •  About to post (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, DCCyclone

      I almost mposted this before I saw your post.

      I remember when folks raised the possibility the other day, I dismissed him as a middling candidate (he's my congressman, BTW).  But, the most I think of it, the more I'm convinced that he could actually be competitive given the type of election.  In an off-year midterm, he's just the kind of bland, unthreatening, "smiley" guy that could pull off running a competitive race.  He's likely, and while his record is a conservative as any conservative Republican in the House, he speaks like the establishment.

      That said, while I won't totally dismiss him, I also think the fact that he's kind of bland is probably more likely to work against him if the Dem candidate comes out of the gate swinging.  I also think that the party has moved so far to the right since he was first elected, that even if he tries to play unthreatenin, his record would show him to be way too extreme to get a Senate seat out of Michigan.  

      And, this is not really even getting into who the Democrat would be, which in a blue state, is probably the main factor concerning whether this will be competitive or another Dem blowout.

      •  MI (8+ / 0-)

        I think Peters would beat Rogers by about 4-6 in a midterm with a neutral environment as they're both in the mainstream of their parties. Rogers could win in a good year for the GOP, say a 2002-type environment.

        If I had to bet, 2014 will not be a good year for the GOP in Michigan. Snyder is unpopular and the legislature less popular, and nationally the GOP is far more unpopular than the Dems. I would start this one at lean D if it's Peters v. Rogers.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 07:10:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  While he isn't a slam dunk (4+ / 0-)

        Rogers will make the race at least competitive. He and Terri Lynn Land are the only options left that may make the race competitive vs. Peters. With one of them I still think it is lean D, but without them the race is likely D.

        I am more interested to see the congressional race if it opens. I wonder if Dianne Byrum would consider running again. She barely lost in 2000. She currently serves as an MSU trustee. I believe she doesn't have to run for that again until 2016. If she doesn't, we still have a deep bench (including her daughter Barb Byrum). On the Republican side, Bill Rogers (Mike's older brother) will be a term-limited state representative. He probably would clear to field. If he doesn't run, the Republicans still have a bench in Livingston County and Northern Oakland. That being said, I could easily see a crazy Republican upsetting everybody in a crowded primary.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:22:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  MI-08 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You know, I keep seeing people saying "Byrum very narrowly lost in 2000", but this would only matter if the district was the same one.  The current iteration of the district is markedly more conservative being shrank down to stagnant Ingham County, and fast-growing exurban Liviningston Coounty and Northern Oakland.  I think  of all of the districts the GOP has gerrymandered over the last two Censuses, the eight is probably one of their better gerrymanders.

          I do think Dianne would be our best Dem - or at least the only long-time, major Dem name I see running.  But, I think she'll quickly find how much the political ground has shifted beneath her.  Livingston is ascendent and has been for some time, and Ingham County voters seem more concerned and content with entrenching in local goverenment in the county.  

          In a perfect world, a fair 8th district would at least include the other two metropolitan Lansing counties as its base, and then whatever else could be pieced together.  Instead, we get the county attached to us that was the former headquarters of the Michigan KKK.

      •  Peters v. Rogers (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MetroGnome, The Dude 415

        would be a good matchup IMO. He's the only Republican I can see giving Peters a good run for his money, but giving Michigan's history of sending Democrats to the US Senate, Peters should win. Michigan Dems usally cakewalk to the senate, but Roger's will mak it close with 10 percentage points. Hopefully we can pick up Roger's house seat of someone like Barb Byrum runs.

        This is Democrats seat to lose, but if Peters runs for Senate, which Dem would be strong enough for Gov. Im thinking Denise Iltich should finally run.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 03:29:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Any NY-area DKE'ers Seen "Ann," abt. Ann Richards? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, bfen

    Or plan to see it? Looks like it might be of interest to people here.

    Link.

  •  Random question of the day (0+ / 0-)

    Did Ronald Reagan and George Bush the first not have an official oil portrait painted of themselves?  I can't find anything, and this wikipedia page doesn't have them listed.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Ryan Dack on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 05:13:11 PM PST

  •  I don't think Judd will be a disaster... (0+ / 0-)

    Democrats will be in a better fundraising position with Judd than they would with another candidate.  Whereas another candidate would have to rely heavily on the DSCC, Judd will get a lot of Hollywood money.

    Judd is very likable, personally.  And she's attractive.  Two things McConnell is severely lacking.

    Don't forget:  Mitch McConnell and Karl Rove are scared of her!

    I don't realistically expect a win here, but this race would have been an uphill battle no matter who ran.  I say a 56-44 loss at worst.  52-48 loss at best.  Fears of a downballot disaster (like losing the state house) are greatly exaggerated.

    •  um, all of this is unsubstantiated (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, DCCyclone, MichaelNY, RVKU

      speculation.  Aside from the thing about her being attractive.  She's beautiful.  There's no evidence she'd outclass other candidates in money, or that McConnell or Rove are scared of her.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:39:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  She'd definitely be able to raise more money (0+ / 0-)

        than any other Democratic candidate.  That's why Rove is scared of her.  I assume he does see her as a threat because he released an ad trashing her months before she even announced.

        There are negatives about Judd, absolutely.  The fact that she lived in Tennessee and she's liberal are negative, but she can say she is a lifelong Kentuckian (which is partially true, as she was raised in KY) and she can moderate her political positions.  That's what politicians do.  But no matter what, no one can accuse her of being a slimier politician than Mitch McConnell.

        •  how can someone say they're a lifelong Kentuckian (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          if they haven't lived there their whole life?  Regardless, you seem to be wearing rose-colored glasses.  We have no idea how much she or another Dem would raise.  And I mean, you live in NC.  Judd is too liberal to get elected in NC.  KY is even more conservative than that.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 08:59:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I never said I thought she would win (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            I said she wouldn't be a disaster.  It's obvious she would raise a lot of money because she has had a career of activism and that's basically raising money.  Plus she's an actress, she has tons of connections to big-money people, and her name recognition is far higher than Alison Lundergan Grimes.  That's not a swipe at Grimes, I think she would be a fine candidate as well for this office, or any other office in Kentucky.

            People are acting like Ashley Judd running is a disaster.  My point was, we weren't going to win this seat anyway, in all likelihood.  We're on defense this cycle, and the only good pickup opportunity we have is in Georgia, if Paul Broun goes total wingnut.

            I also think it's significant that the DSCC and House Speaker Greg Sumbo are giving Ashley Judd the okay.  They don't seem to think it will be a Nixon-McGovern blowout.  They probably don't see Judd winning but are okay with her running for the same reasons I am.

            And of course she could get elected in NC.  Obama basically ran on all of Ashley Judd's positions in 2008, and he got elected.  And a black guy named Harvey Gantt who openly called himself a "liberal" almost won NC in 1990 when NC was far more conservative than it is now.

        •  i said it before and i'll say it again (5+ / 0-)

          Rove/McConnell are scared of Judd like Brer Rabbit was scared of the briar patch.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:07:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  James Allen is right on all points (5+ / 0-)

        The thing about a Judd run is that it scares me and excites me at the same time, but the excitement is all emotional, not rationale, with a movie star candidate bringing something fun to the cycle.  But she's far more likely to bomb and drag others down than to win.  Hopefully, and perhaps most likely, she just loses convincingly herself with her own personal (as opposed to political) image being damaged and without any downballot pain for state Dems.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 09:52:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Utah may join the ranks of same-day registration (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.sltrib.com/...

    The odds look good for it passing the state Senate if it passed the House by 53-14. And same-day voter registration benefits us far more than it benefits the Republicans.

    Here's hoping Governor Herbert sees sense and signs it into law if it passes the Senate.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 10:09:04 AM PDT

  •  Supreme Court (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    I've been thinking about if a Supreme Court position opens up in 2015. How does an Obama nominee get the 60 votes to avoid cloture if cloture is in fact revoked?

    We have 55 Democrats now, let's say 2014 is an average year and Dems lose 3 seats total (SD, WV and one of AK, AR, LA, MT or NC) and we are down to 52 Democratic Senators.

    I think there are 2 different scenarios: one if it's a RBG retirement and another if someone like Kennedy or Scalia keels over.

    For the first, the nominee likely gets all 52 D votes. (S)he also hopefully gets the lowest hanging GOP votes (those that voted for Sotomayor), which now only number 3 (Alexander, Collins & Graham).

    The next 5 votes you'd need are probably a combination of Ayotte, Burr, Cochran, Corker, Heller, Hoeven, Kirk, McCain and Murkowski. I think if the nominee is moderate enough and it is RBG we are replacing, there's a decent enough chance that either cloture isn't invoked or that we squeeze by and peel of 5 of these, probably the 5 I bolded.

    But what happens if it's Kennedy or Scalia? I don't see 60 votes for an Obama nominee of either. The question becomes, do Republicans filibuster a nominee knowing that 60 votes won't happen?

    Now maybe enough old schoolers vote for cloture but against the nominee allowing it to pass. If not, I think if GOPers were completely blocking an Obama appointment, you might make the case that Reid would then - invoking the extenuating circumstances of the minority filibustering a SC nominee - use the nuclear option, likely disallowing filibusters on judicial nominees.

    A lot of this is hypothetical I realize. But does anyone else have thoughts on either this hypothetical or maybe a disagreement with an assumption I made?

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 12:00:09 PM PDT

    •  If the retiree is from the more liberal bloc (5+ / 0-)

      like Ginsberg or Breyer, then I don't think there will be a massive fight.  Sure Republicans will bluster like they did with Sotomayor and Kagen, but none will filibuster or demand cloture (that is, unless the nominee is a stalwart liberal in the mould of Brennan).  But if one of the conservatives retire or passes, then it will be an epic fight.  SCOTUS is very high-key and the public will hold the Republican accountable if they leave a seat empty due to a protracted fight.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 12:24:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  On a related note (7+ / 0-)

        I am amazed at Ruth Bader Ginsberg's resilience.  Pancreatic cancer has the lowest survival rate of any cancer and most do not survive a year, but she has gone through four and she's still very active on the court.

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 12:34:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not saying an Obama nominee (6+ / 0-)

        will be easily confirmed, if they are replacing a conservative justice, but there are several Obama appellate nominees would probably get through without a major fight.

        There are several who are well qualified, and were confirmed by lopsided, even unanimous, margins. These nominees also have the advantage of being relatively young(in their 50s).  And because they were confirmed in recent years, they've largely been vetted already.

        The questioning would be tough, and they certainly wouldnt be confirmed by a lopsided margin, but I think one of those nominees could get confirmed without a lot of difficulty.

        A few examples. Albert Diaz, confirmed on a voice vote to the 4th circuit court of appeals in 2010. Adalberto Jordan, confirmed 95-5 to the 11th circuit in 2012. Stephen Higginson, confirmed to the 5th circuit, 88-0 in 2011.  All are in their early 50s and received the highest rating from the ABA.

        •  Obama won't feel so bound... (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen, Skaje, LordMike, askew

          ...to go with someone who is "easily" confirmed.  First, I think he'll believe, correctly, that there's no such thing.  That Obama nominated someone is reason enough in wingnut world to oppose him/her.

          Second, his nature is to pick whoever he wants and push hard.

          I suspect his pick will come from people who were on his short list the first couple times.  Kagan was on the short list when Sotomayor was picked, and there are others on the short list who weren't the first or second choice.  I wouldn't expect any surprises unless someone has gotten on to the President's radar in the intervening years, but that seems very unlikely.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 04:18:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree on your first two points (7+ / 0-)

            but I dont think the pick will come from one of his previous short lists.

            Assuming Ginsburg retires in 2015, that will be five years since the previous SCOTUS vacancy. I think many who were on the previous short lists might be considered too old for a SCOTUS nomination(Merrick Garland and Diane Wood for instance).

            And I think in the intervening years, those appellate court nominees will definitely be on Obama's radar for SCOTUS.

            By 2015, they will have spent 3-6 years on an appeals court in addition to their other legal experience, and still be relatively young.

            So I think it's possible that there might be some overlap between "the choice Obama wants" and "confirmable".  

        •  What if (0+ / 0-)

          Obama nominates himself? I wonder if he would ever consider it, especially if there is a vacancy late in his 2nd term.

      •  I tend to agree (4+ / 0-)

        I agree, I think who the nominee is replacing is essentially the biggest question outstanding. Like you hint at, I think the next opening is with RBG, but an opening caused by Kennedy or someone else would be just fantastic political theatre.

        In the end, I would hope a filibuster of a center left Obama nominee would be the death knell for filibustering judicial nominations. I mean c'mon, cloture on Alito was over 70 votes, I think public opinion would rightfully come down hard against complete blockage of any reasonable, mainstream nomination.

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 12:57:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Knowing Obama's negotiating style, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, gabjoh

      in the case of a Scalia or Kennedy retirement he will probably make an opening bid for a "grand bargain" nominee in the center of the political spectrum, which will promptly be framed by the republicans as a left-wing extremist, and the negotiating will commence from there. But it's a very interesting question - everything about Republican tactics suggest they'll pursue maximum obstruction, maybe even try to keep a vacancy open past the 2016 election. But would the Supreme Court be a bridge too far for them to pursue this srategy?

      I would add that if 2014 is a neutral year, we're at least as likely to be down to 49 senators as 52; I don't see Dems winning 4 out of 5 elections in AK, MT, AR, LA, and NC in a neutral year.

      •  Too harsh on the President (8+ / 0-)

        I think you too easily dismiss President Obama's negotiating prowess.

        Like KoS said, I don't think he'll nominate an extraordinarily liberal justice, but the notion that because the President supports a grand bargain as it involves the deficit and govt pending is unfounded.

        I think if anything, the President has proven himself incredibly apt at dealing with a negotiating partner that just isn't a rational political force and that doesn't have the interests of the country or even their own constituents at heart.

        I'd also disagree on your last point. Democrats are blessed with popular incumbents in the majority of those states. Take Mary Landrieu, who in a neutral year will surely win her seat against anyone but Jay Dardenne. This is a class of senators (in the case of AR, LA & MT) that survived 2002!

        Polling shows all 5 leading most if not all potential challengers, and while things may change, I think if the political climate stays where it is now, or even slightly deteriorates, 4/5 of these seats isn't incredibly unreasonable.

        The power of incumbency, especially in states like AR, LA MT and NC that have long histories of popular Democratic politicians and a strong local party, is not something to dismiss to easily.

        For a counter example, see Snowe, Olympia or Collins, Susan.

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 12:52:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  too* (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, KingofSpades

          Mortified, my former journalism professor is rolling over in her grave

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 12:58:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I tipped both of you (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          R30A, Christopher Walker

          But I really agree with Stephen on this. In a neutral year, I don't think Pryor, Landrieu, and Hagan all lose, though one of them might.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 02:25:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Appreciate your perspective, but I disagree on one (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          point:

          the President has proven himself incredibly apt at dealing with a negotiating partner that just isn't a rational political force and that doesn't have the interests of the country or even their own constituents at heart.
          I think Senate republicans have been plenty rational, at least in procedural terms. The rules of the senate are what they are, and if the republicans can achieve their desired outcomes by holding everything up to a 60-vote threshold, then it's entirely rational for them to do so. That just happens to be an unreasonable threshold, and it's on the Democrats as much as the Republicans that that rule has become institutionalized.

          As for the Senate, I agree that we have some incumbents that are about as strong as we could hope for in their respective states. And my gut says that Hagan and Landrieu win, at least, but I could easily be wrong about either or both of those. I think Pryor and Begich are in toss-up situations at best, and Baucus is in worse shape than that.

          Consider the (pre-2012) PVIs for these states:
          AK: R+13
          AR: R+9
          LA: R+10
          MT: R+7
          SD: R+9
          WV: R+8

          You're counting on us winning 3 out of 6 states with an R+ PVI of 7 or greater. That's without counting NC (R+3 or so) or any of the swing states (IA, CO, NH). How many congressional seats do we hold that are R+7 or greater? Just 3, I believe, in the entire house.

          And of course it's going to be a midterm year, with a Democratic president.

          Personally, I will be perfectly content if we lose 5 and keep control of the senate.

          •  I disagree on Baucus (3+ / 0-)

            None of the people running or likely running against him are polling at or above him and that was from an early poll.  He also can raise a lot of money and has very strong connections.  I'd say he's more likely to win than Begich.  I don't know why you think he's in worse shape than him as he has the seniority and pull.  His numbers have recovered some and with some work they can get even better.

            "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 03:01:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In the PPP poll (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca

              Baucus loses to Daines by 5 and Racicot by 7; all the other potential opponents were pretty unknown. He's  underwater and in the mid-40s in overall approval, and mid-40s in the head-to-heads as well. Honestly, how would you feel about our chances against a Republican incumbent with those numbers in a D+7 state? I would feel pretty optimistic about flipping that seat.

              By contrast, PPP had Begich with 49/39 approval, in the 47-50 range and up 6-10 against plausible opponents, and up way more than that against the wackos (Palin and Miller). He's even tied against the popular governor, who isn't likely to run anyways. I would consider this Lean D, in fact, except that Alaska polling seems a little sketchy.

              •  I just don't think those two will run. (3+ / 0-)

                and I feel like Baucus will probably win or Schweitzer could run and make it much easier.  I think he just has a lot of seniority to fall back on.

                "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 03:38:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I hope I'm right on those two. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Stephen Schmitz

                  Daines was just elected and he said in Feb. that he wants to take a lesson from what Rick Berg did and not be so hasty to move up (he didn't absolutely say no, just that it's not something he's thinking of).

                  "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                  by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 05:35:49 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Incumbency (5+ / 0-)

            should help mitigate the PVI disadvantage we have in those states.

            So your question:

            How many congressional seats do we hold that are R+7 or greater?
            Might be better phrased like:
            How likely is it that our congressional incumbents in R+7ish seats will win reelection in 2014?
            It would seem to me that, assuming they run for reelection, Matheson, McIntyre, Barrow, Rahall, etc. are probably at worst even money, in aggregate, to hold their seats, no?
            •  Good point, but all these are incumbents (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, itskevin, jncca

              and by definition they've just won in a fairly neutral year. All we know about our senate incumbents in 2014 is that they won in the uber-Dem year of 2008, and several of their states have trended R since then (i.e., WV, AR, MT); on top of which, 2008 was a presidential year, and 2014b will be a mid-term.

              Maybe an even better question would be: how many Dem incumbents won an R+7 seat in 2012, and how many lost? Just McIntyre, Barrow, and Matheson won; 2 or 3 others won in R+5-6 districts. But how many lost races in districts like that?

              •  Montana (5+ / 0-)

                I mean you can say it trended Republican at some level but we just had a pretty decent year there, re-electing Tester and getting Bullock in.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 04:56:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Again (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv, MichaelNY

                Landrieu, Pryor and Baucus all won in 2002! Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina and Montana all have very strong Democratic histories and by and large have popular incumbents.

                You say we will lose 5 senate seats. Please tell me who will lose and to which candidate?

                I think WV is gone, and SD is also most likely a loss. But there isn't a bench in NC to beat Hagan, who will also run well in eastern NC in places like McIntyre's district.

                Landrieu is up against every GOPer and will most likely walk all over some unknown congressman. Pryor is still popular, and I think you're going to see a convergence of a lot of the strong forces in Democratic politics in that state come out in full force for him (Bumpers, Clinton & Beebe).

                Begich seems to be extraordinarily popular, and he seems to represent his state fairly well. Like Landrieu and Pryor, he also bears a strong family name in that state.

                Against a strong candidate, Baucus would be no better than even, but I don't see a strong GOP candidate appearing, especially since Dems dominate most of the statewide offices there. A Schweitzer candidacy would romp against even the strongest Republican.

                For our open seats, Peters and Braley will romp over third rate Republicans.

                23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:13:22 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You realize that in 2002 (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, MichaelNY, Skaje

                  Arkansas was R+4 and Louisiana R+5, right? Now they're over R+10.  I think we'll probably keep the Senate, losing 3 or 4, but you have to be realistic about the difference between 2002 and 2014.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:27:27 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I'm quite realistic (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin, MichaelNY

                    Mary Landrieu won in 2008, a year more republican in 08 than in 2012. 2014 will probably be a strong Dem year here because the GOP/Jindal is horribly unpopular, especially among the former Demosaurs.

                    And again, I predicted above we'd have 52 D votes. That would be a loss of 3 seats...

                    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                    by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 08:01:09 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I have said for a while that I think (0+ / 0-)

                  the most likely outcome is that we lose 4-5 seats, and I will be content with that. Here are my rough estimates for the likelihood of our losing these senate seats in 2014:

                  WV - 90
                  SD - 80
                  MT - 60
                  AR - 50
                  AK - 50
                  LA - 40
                  NC - 40
                  IA - 30
                  NH - 20

                  Add it up, and that's a predicted loss of 4.5 (perhaps you could round it down to 4, given our slight chances to take back a seat in GA, KY, or ME), but a very slightly pro-republican year could easily make it 7.

                  •  I'd put NH at 10 (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Skaje, Stephen Schmitz

                    and AK/AR at 40.

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                    by jncca on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 07:01:35 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Again ignoring polls (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

                    NC isn't 40%. Who could beat Hagen? No one I can easily identify.

                    MT is not over 50% unless a strong GOPer gets in and Schweitzer does not.

                    AR/AK are tilt/lean D. And I think we pick up a GOP seat before we lose NH.

                    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                    by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 08:03:20 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  here's where I'd put those (5+ / 0-)

                    WV - 80
                     SD - 80
                     MT - 40
                     AR - 40
                     AK - 30
                     LA - 30
                     NC - 25
                     IA - 20
                     NH - 10

                    Also, it's a mistake to assume that those are independent. Usually the vast majority of the competitive races break one way or the other depending on the national environment. Barring a good cycle for the GOP (maybe a 25% chance) the Dems should be able to hold everything but WV and SD. I think a probability distribution of the likely seat change would not look anything like a bell curve, there would be a big spike at R+2 and relatively little on either side of it.

                    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                    by sacman701 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:30:14 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Oh very nice (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I'm pretty much 100% with you on all percentages and totally agree on the notion that typically the tossups break one way. I think that'll be the case again, especially with the AK, AR and LA races.

                      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                      by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 07:55:33 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  ... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, wwmiv

            The Senate is different, I'm sorry but you underestimate the prowess of our incumbents.

            Let's look at the last cycle, where we held an OPEN SEAT in a state Obama lost by double digits, as well as picking up a seat in Indiana.

            We won seats in FL, MO, MT, etc. You are doing what Republicans did last cycle, ignoring the polling and relying on PVI. That doesn't work, we've proven with strong candidates that this can be overcome.

            A 5 seat loss would be bad. We shouldn't lose 5 seats, not with incumbents like Begich, Landireu and Pryor who are immensely popular.

            As for midterms, 3 of our incumbents won in 2002, a fairly GOP year. Additionally, most of our incumbents will win the 65+ vote more than any other demo than the under 30 (or at least that's the case in AK, AR & LA).

            23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

            by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:06:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  An extended vacancy (6+ / 0-)

        on the Court could open up its own set of problems for Republicans, as the court would then be tied at a 4:4 split, making it virtually impossible for conservative wins over that 1-2 year period. Rs would probably see that as only a small cost for obstruction (as it would be very short term vs. a lifetime appointment), but it would still be a cost.

      •  I think 51-2 after the elections is most likely. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Schmitz

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 01:20:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I hope you're just having a bad day (5+ / 0-)

        Nothing in your comment is remotely realistic.  The GOP is not going to have a Senate majority after the midterm without another anti-Democratic wave.  There's not even one open seat in those states you identify...that can change, but it hasn't, and there's no word that any of those individuals might not run.

        And the Senate GOP is going to be very hard-pressed to prevent any nominee at all to be confirmed.  That's a green light to the Democrats to throw out the filibuster altogether, which the GOP is on notice is on the table already based on threats and efforts after this past election.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 04:31:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Obama needs to convince both Ginsburg and Breyer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin

      to retire preferably before the 2014 elections and certainly before the 2016 elections.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 12:51:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's not typically (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Schmitz, MichaelNY

        more than one retirement per year, so I doubt we'd see both retire before the 2014 election. Ginsberg has hinted she's sticking it out at least through the next term.

      •  They deserve better (3+ / 0-)

        Look I agree I'd like RBG to retire next year; however, I certainly don't think it is appropriate for the President to cajole either into retirement.

        The judiciary is their own level of government, and I think the profound records of both RBG and Breyer afford them the decision on when it is appropriate for each to retire.

        Justice Ginsburg is a survivor of pancreatic cancer and certainly is considering retirement, as any normal person in her position would, but I am just fundamentally against the notion that either should retire just because the left wants to replace them with a new younger body.

        I also see no reason for Justice Breyer to reitre at all, except for if he felt like his time was over. He is in relatively good health, and there are what 3 others that are on the court that are older than he?

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 02:15:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think he can (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Schmitz

        And I doubt he'll try. It seems like an inappropriate attempt to interfere with the operations of a co-equal branch of government - not to mention disrespectful toward the justices.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 02:27:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  SCOTUS Blog (4+ / 0-)

        has said Justice Ginsburg will retire after she turns 82 in 2015.

        Justice Breyer seems less likely to retire in the next 4 years. I believe I read somewhere he sees himself being on the bench for another 7-10 years.

        •  That was a very speculative piece, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          essentially just educated guessing on Goldstein's part (like we're doing here). The only thing we really know is that Ginsberg has hinted she won't retire after this term. But I wouldn't rule out 2014.

          Here's the link, if anyone's interested:
          http://www.scotusblog.com/...

          •  even speculation (0+ / 0-)

            from Goldstein holds a lot of weight when it comes to SCOTUS.

            •  In his own words: (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY
              The odds are good that Justice Ginsburg will retire in the third year of a second Obama term. That is only a presumption, and I doubt that the Justice herself has made concrete plans.
              So he is essentially forecasting something that even he believes the Justice herself has not yet decided.

              He also includes some guesses later in the article that are likely to be proven incorrect -- e.g. that Quinn will be the Dem nominee for IL gov in 2014, setting up Madigan as an amenable court nominee choice. I'd say she's more likely to be our choice for gov instead, meaning her attention will be focused elsewhere.

    •  Assuming he's not primaried in 2014 (3+ / 0-)

      I think we could get Graham, because he made a big deal about voting for Elena Kagan in committee, saying that the President should get to nominate who he chooses (he didn't vote at all on the full nomination).

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 03:48:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In the case of Kennedy or Scalia (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      If the Republicans vote not for a candidate appointed by Obama, they know that they would not have the votes of the Democrats for a candidate appointed by a Republican president.

      If they want to block the can find the same answer.

  •  MI-SEN: Would Amash run even if (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Rogers did? And would Amash have an advantage in the primary?

    I mean, Rogers doesnt really seem moderate at all, so I think it would be a harder race for Amash.

    •  True, but ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      .... don't underestimate the preference of the GOP base for the craziest candidate possible!

    •  Of course he would (4+ / 0-)

      Amash has absolutely no qualms about not waiting his term, and he has no fear of party authority, whatsoever.  He's shown this many times in both words and deeds.  The man is a true believing libertarian.  Nobody puts baby in the corner.  Amash is the kind of guy that'd run for his own vanity under the guise of running on what he believes "true" conservatism to be.  He's said as much in his initial reactions to a possible Senate candidacy in the last few days.  I don't think people realize how much he's the heir apparent to Uncle Ron.

  •  anyone here see PVI as sort of a grim reaper (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    or maybe something from the final destination movies? It seems like you had a lot of incumbents who never had tough races and then all of a sudden it happens from out of nowhere.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 02:33:39 PM PDT

    •  yes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I see numbers as grim reapers all the time!

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:29:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NM-Gov: can this story hurt Martinez? (12+ / 0-)

    See here:  http://news.yahoo.com/...

    That the jail personnel were so savage is shocking.  Never brought before a judge, never convicted of anything.

    This was Martinez's county, where she was a prosecutor.  I don't see her name dragged into this in the news, so maybe it won't touch her, but I saw what county it was and immediately thought of her.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 04:33:51 PM PDT

  •  NYC-MAYOR (4+ / 0-)

    Speaker Christine Quinn today officially announced her candidacy for mayor of NYC by releasing an introduction web video and a new website:

    www.quinnfornewyork.com/

    •  I suspect (0+ / 0-)

      she will get the Cory Booker treatment from many Kos posters.

      •  Probably (4+ / 0-)

        I just hope that she stops some of the abuses of Bloomberg (who isn't that bad, but things like stop and frisk are big no-nos).

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 05:40:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (6+ / 0-)

          Bloomberg has done many good things as Mayor, but his disrespect for civil liberties is the biggest black mark on his record. And it's kind of ironic to use the phrase "black mark," considering who the victims of "stop and frisk" are - overwhelmingly black and Hispanic youths. It's almost by definition a policy of institutional racism and discrimination, it should be illegal under the 14th Amendment and civil rights laws, and it needs to be stopped as soon as possible.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 05:48:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  is racial profiling unconstitutional? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And if so, under what grounds?

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:30:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  This isn't mere racial profiling (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, LordMike, bumiputera

              bad as that is. These are arbitrary, warrantless searches of people only because they are black or Hispanic young men. That violates their civil liberties, in that all Americans have the right not to be arbitrarily searched, and it singles them out for discrimination because of race, color, or national origin, which is a clear abridgement of their privileges and immunities as citizens of the United States and the State of New York.

              Here are the relevant Constitutional provisions.

              14th Amendment:

              No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law
              Substitute "City" for "State."

              4th Amendment:

              The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
              5th Amendment:
              nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law
              The relevance of the 5th Amendment right against self-incrimination may be a bit tenuous when "deprivation of liberty" consists of a forced search, rather than a jail term, but the violations of the 4th and 14th Amendments would seem to me to be obvious, except to someone who wants to try to find some convoluted way that they aren't.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 07:27:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  look up levels of scrutiny under the equal (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, wwmiv, jncca

              protection clause.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 08:02:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Not just stop-and-frisk (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, gabjoh

            But, civil liberties, in general.  Was it Ray Kelly on 60 Minutes who was bragging about the NYPD having the ability to shoot a plane out of the sky?  I mean, I understand what happened to NYC, but everything about the Bloomberg administration has had a distasteful and worrisome authoritarian flavor to it.

            Perhaps, a more structured government was what NYC needed during the beginning of the Bloomberg years, but this kind of environment has overstayed its welcome, IMO.  NYC needs to get back to being left to live.  I mean, I'm sure Riyadh probably has a low violent crime rate, but at what cost?  New York needs to breath, again, and hopefully, the next mayor will allow this.

            •  I saw that 60 mins interview. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              He wasn't bragging so much as describing what the the NYPD is capable of.

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 08:10:46 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  To my knowledge, Saudi Arabia (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              doesn't have a low crime rate, because they are reluctant to apply their draconian punishments and prefer for the family of the victim to be paid "blood money," even in the case of murder. I don't think I'd be able to prove that, though; I just believe the person who told me that (an Australian Muslim intelligence and consultant guy). But that aside, I think we all get your point.

              Reopening Park Row, finally, would be a great help to a lot of merchants in Chinatown.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 08:45:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Worse than stop and frisk (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, MetroGnome, gabjoh

          I think is the NYC Police Dept's extreme targeting and infiltrating of mosques, even those outside the state! An absolute abuse of power.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:21:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The NYPD also arbitrarily (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Schmitz, gabjoh

            detained over 1,000 people, if I remember the numbers correctly, who just happened to, for example, bike down 7th Av. during the Republican National Convention, and held them in unhealthy conditions. The NYPD eventually paid out a lot in lawsuits, but of course no-one was prosecuted for this abusive behavior, which seemed to recur any time the mayor didn't like a demonstration.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 07:29:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Does that mean positive or negative? n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 05:49:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, nonsensoleum

        Although I think the difference is that Cory Booker is kind of been an ass, while Christine Quinn has been a little more respectful to the higher ups in the party.

        And let's be real, she's to the left of the national party, although she's definitely on the right of the NYC Dem party

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 06:20:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe being to the left (0+ / 0-)

          of the NYC Dem Party is a good thing, considering who NYC has rejected every Democratic candidate for Mayor the last 20 years.

        •  Booker-Lautenberg (0+ / 0-)

          Booker probably should of waited a few more months to make his intentions known, but Lautenberg and his people are now just acting like children.

          Mayor Cory Booker has been trying to make peace with Sen. Frank Lautenberg, and said he has called his office several times to arrange a meeting.

          "We’ve been trying to talk to him for a long time," Booker told The Auditor.

          Lautenberg’s answer: Talk to the hand. No return call. No meeting. No love.

          Other possible contenders, like U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-6th), were more respectful, saying they would wait for the 89-year-old Lautenberg to make the first move before declaring their intentions in public.
          Even now, Booker sees no distinction. "It was no different," he said. "We did everything the senator’s staff asked us to do."

          Lautenberg’s staff denies that.

          "Can you imagine us telling him to anounce he’s going to run no matter what the senator does?" one staff member said. "It doesn’t make sense."

          A former Lautenberg aide put it this way: "The whole incident rubbed Frank the wrong way, and it’s going to take some time. It just struck people as not the right thing to do to your grandfather."

          Continue Reading: http://blog.nj.com/...
      •  Yuuuuuuup, those two (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and Cuomo get it in my book. Though I do have the most hope for her to change (then again, I really want paid sick leave as an option when i'm probably a restaurant server in NYC next year, so perhaps she affects me the most directly).

        Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 10:53:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I finally took the time to listen (0+ / 0-)

      It's a great statement. If she really means all of that, she could be a great mayor. But I will be eager to hear the debates and what other candidates have to say.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 11:21:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  interesting thing I learned the other day (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    for all you fast food lovers, Carl Karcher, the founder of Carl's Jr, was the Dan Cathy of his time, endorsing the Briggs initiative in 1978.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 07:10:40 PM PDT

    •  I know his story. (0+ / 0-)

      Read it up in a chapter of Fast Food Nation.   His support of that initiative wouldn't surprise me as he was a long time member of the John Birch Society.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 07:35:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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