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Just this morning I posted a comment on the excellent Blue Mass Group, where I also contribute, expressing a desire to see more polling in the Democratic primary between Reps. Ed Markey and Steve Lynch in the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat. Ask and it shall be granted onto thee. A new post on Blue Mass Group reveals that PPP has just released another poll, commissioned by the LCV, showing Markey up 50-36. Markey also leads Lynch in favorability rating (66-23, +43 vs. 50-32, +18 for Lynch).

Interestingly, there is only a slight gender gap in this poll. Lynch's campaign released to the fantastic local political journalist David S. Bernstein, late of the recently-departed Boston Phoenix, an internal poll showing Markey up by less than six points. In that one, mentioned with skepticism on David Nir's Daily Election Digest here on Daily Kos, Markey had a a fourteen point lead among women. Yet another poll with questionable methodology, from Western New England University, had Markey up 44-34 last week.

Lynch, as I wrote yesterday, has taken to misrepresenting Markey's record in an effort to exploit last week's bombing at the Boston Marathon. He's unacceptable to progressives for any number of reasons, and I hope he will lose handily next Tuesday.

Originally posted to fenway49 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:04 PM PDT.

Also republished by Massachusetts Kosmopolitans.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (16+ / 0-)

    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 01:04:31 PM PDT

  •  GOOD. (7+ / 0-)

    Now we've got a real Democrat to replace John Kerry, who by the way is doing a rather fine job so far as Secretary of State.

  •  Thanks for this, I was wondering what the status (6+ / 0-)

    ...of this race was. Figured Markey was ahead but very reassuring to see the numbers.

    No time to slack off, though; we don't want another Martha Coakley situation here (on the other hand, if she had won then we wouldn't have Elizabeth Warren today, so there you go...)

    •  Not there yet (5+ / 0-)

      Some other polls show a tighter race (though I trust PPP's methodology more). More important is who turns out their voters. Markey's campaign is geared toward that, but Lynch (and the unions supporting him) have a good track record on turnout. Expect low turnout and the race comes down to which candidate gets his voters to the polls. If it were just on the issues, Markey would win in a walk.

      Wild card remains that Mass. allows unenrolled voters (more favorable to Lynch than registered Dems are) to pick which primary they'll vote in. Unenrolleds here are half the electorate. I'm hoping, with a potentially tight GOP primary, the more conservative of those who show up will pull a GOP ballot.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 03:36:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  will Lynch endorse (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jennyp, Danno11

    Markey if Markey wins the primary? Has he said. Or...will he continue to be a real...jerk...and go all "mavericky" and endorse the Republican't.

  •  Tipped and rec'd; good news! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fenway49

    Thanks for this update!

    You might want to include a link to Daily Kos' Ed Markey page at Act Blue.

    https://secure.actblue.com/...

    We definitely need him to win both the primary and the special.  And as was mentioned upthread, we need to keep in mind what happened with Coakley.  Donate if you can; we need to get the vote out.

    ______________
    Love one another

    by davehouck on Thu Apr 25, 2013 at 05:45:45 PM PDT

  •  Lynch: Yea on the Iraq War (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator, fenway49

    Thought it was worth mentioning given today's library opening.

  •  fenway49, I second your wish (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fenway49

    that Markey defeats Lynch in this one.  

    I'm whole states away from you folks in the Commonwealth, but I'm rooting for Markey all the way.  

  •  Breakdown (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fenway49

    What has me skeptical is the 77-23 Dem/unenrolled ratio in this poll.  Seems high.  Conor Yunits, Lynch's campaign manager said that the 2010 special election primary was 57-43 D/U.  And of course, Lynch does much better with unenrolled voters.  I can't find any exit polling for that primary though.

    •  David S. Bernstein (0+ / 0-)

      Local journalist, pointed that out too. Thing is, it might not be right. The question said, "If you are a Democrat, press 1. If unenrolled, press 2." Many people might have pressed 1 before they even heard the second option, so that the question got many "self-identified" Democrats who are not registered Dems. I'd have worded it, "If you are registered Democrat, press 1."

      Not sure about the 2010 numbers, but 57-43 seems unlikely this year. In 2009/10 there was no GOP primary (unenrolleds can choose which ballot they want to vote). This time, a competitive GOP primary will pull some unenrolleds away from the Dem primary. And it's generally the party activists who are most likely to show up.

      Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

      by fenway49 on Fri Apr 26, 2013 at 11:25:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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