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By: inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Four years before the 2016 presidential election, and before we even know who is running, some enterprising pollsters have released polls matching Hillary Clinton against an assorted group of potential Republican candidates. Clinton does well; she leads in a number of red states.

In these polls, one interesting constant is the massive gender gap that Hillary Clinton opens up.

More below.

Here are as many 2016 polls that I could find. They show the gender gap in hypothetical match-ups between Clinton and various Republicans.


Date State Hillary Clinton (Overall) Hillary Clinton (♀) Hillary Clinton (♂) Republican Gender Gap
25-Apr NH 52 61 42 41 19
25-Apr NH 52 60 43 38 17
23-Apr CO 48 53 41 45 12
23-Apr CO 48 53 42 44 11
19-Apr NC 49 54 43 42 11
19-Apr NC 52 57 46 40 11
19-Apr NY 59 64 53 32 11
11-Apr KY 45 50 40 45 10
11-Apr KY 46 51 41 40 10
3-Apr US 46 51 41 42 10
3-Apr US 49 54 45 43 9
3-Apr US 49 53 46 42 7
3-Apr US 50 53 46 43 7
3-Apr US 46 47 45 43 2
3-Apr US 54 56 52 38 4
3-Apr US 52 57 46 40 11
3-Apr US 52 59 44 41 15
21-Mar FL 53 58 47 40 11
21-Mar FL 56 61 50 40 11
21-Mar FL 54 60 49 41 11
21-Mar FL 51 56 45 40 11
21-Mar FL 52 55 48 41 7
14-Mar PA 47 55 39 42 16
14-Mar PA 54 62 45 36 17
14-Mar PA 55 63 45 38 18
13-Mar PA 52 55 49 37 6
13-Mar PA 52 56 49 40 7
13-Mar PA 55 58 52 38 6
8-Mar MI 51 57 44 37 13
8-Mar MI 52 59 44 41 15
7-Mar US 45 51 38 37 13
7-Mar US 50 56 43 34 13
7-Mar US 49 49 36 42 13
28-Feb WI 52 56 47 38 9
28-Feb WI 51 56 45 43 11
28-Feb WI 54 59 48 41 11
27-Feb KS 42 49 34 47 15
27-Feb KS 42 52 34 50 18
21-Feb MT 42 47 37 50 10
21-Feb MT 44 47 41 51 6
20-Feb NJ 49 60 35 45 25
20-Feb GA 49 54 42 46 12
20-Feb GA 50 55 44 45 11
14-Feb LA 48 56 40 45 16
14-Feb LA 46 54 39 43 15
14-Feb LA 46 52 40 46 12
8-Feb AK 42 47 35 43 12
8-Feb AK 53 60 46 37 14
8-Feb AK 44 49 37 43 12
7-Feb US 49 54 44 43 10
7-Feb US 46 53 38 41 15
7-Feb US 49 54 44 41 10
7-Feb US 50 55 45 44 10
31-Jan TX 45 48 41 43 7
31-Jan TX 50 54 45 42 9
31-Jan TX 46 51 40 45 11
24-Jan MN 44 51 38 38 13
24-Jan MN 50 57 43 37 14
17-Jan FL 49 54 43 44 11
17-Jan FL 50 56 43 46 13
10-Jan US 51 54 47 38 7
10-Jan US 44 52 37 42 15
10-Jan US 51 55 47 37 8
10-Jan US 53 58 48 39 10
Comparatively, in 2012 women gave Barack Obama 55% of the vote, compared to the 45% that he won amongst men. The gender gap in that year was 10 points. In 2008 it was 7 points (Obama won 49% of males and 56% of females). The largest ever gender gap in recorded exit polling occurred in the 2000 presidential election, when Al Gore won only 42% of men but 54% of women.

It appears that Clinton would open a huge gender gap. The largest gender gap in this table (25 points) comes when she goes head-to-head against Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. Christie's brash style is very popular amongst men but much less so with women.

One point of caution is that the vast majority of these polls come from just one polling firm: Public Policy Polling (PPP). It's possible that this gender gap is simply due to a mistake in the way PPP is polling. Interestingly, the two results with the lowest gender gaps (of two and four points) came from a national poll by McClatchy-Marist. So take caution in interpreting these results.

Nevertheless, as potentially America's first female president, Clinton appears to be able to count strongly on the support of women.

P.S. The full table is below.


Date Polling Firm State Hillary Clinton (Overall) Hillary Clinton (Women) Hillary Clinton (Men) Republican Candidate Gender Gap
25-Apr Public Policy Polling New Hampshire 52 61 42 41 19
25-Apr Public Policy Polling New Hampshire 52 60 43 38 17
23-Apr Public Policy Polling Colorado 48 53 41 45 12
23-Apr Public Policy Polling Colorado 48 53 42 44 11
19-Apr Public Policy Polling North Carolina 49 54 43 42 11
19-Apr Public Policy Polling North Carolina 52 57 46 40 11
19-Apr Quinnipiac New York 59 64 53 32 11
11-Apr Public Policy Polling Kentucky 45 50 40 45 10
11-Apr Public Policy Polling Kentucky 46 51 41 40 10
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 46 51 41 42 10
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 49 54 45 43 9
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 49 53 46 42 7
3-Apr Public Policy Polling National 50 53 46 43 7
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 46 47 45 43 2
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 54 56 52 38 4
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 52 57 46 40 11
3-Apr McClatchy-Marist National 52 59 44 41 15
21-Mar Public Policy Polling Florida 53 58 47 40 11
21-Mar Public Policy Polling Florida 56 61 50 40 11
21-Mar Public Policy Polling Florida 54 60 49 41 11
21-Mar Quinnipiac Florida 51 56 45 40 11
21-Mar Quinnipiac Florida 52 55 48 41 7
14-Mar Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 47 55 39 42 16
14-Mar Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 54 62 45 36 17
14-Mar Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 55 63 45 38 18
13-Mar Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania 52 55 49 37 6
13-Mar Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania 52 56 49 40 7
13-Mar Public Policy Polling Pennsylvania 55 58 52 38 6
8-Mar Public Policy Polling Michigan 51 57 44 37 13
8-Mar Public Policy Polling Michigan 52 59 44 41 15
7-Mar Quinnipiac National 45 51 38 37 13
7-Mar Quinnipiac National 50 56 43 34 13
7-Mar Quinnipiac National 49 49 36 42 13
28-Feb Public Policy Polling Wisconsin 52 56 47 38 9
28-Feb Public Policy Polling Wisconsin 51 56 45 43 11
28-Feb Public Policy Polling Wisconsin 54 59 48 41 11
27-Feb Public Policy Polling Kansas 42 49 34 47 15
27-Feb Public Policy Polling Kansas 42 52 34 50 18
21-Feb Public Policy Polling Montana 42 47 37 50 10
21-Feb Public Policy Polling Montana 44 47 41 51 6
20-Feb Quinnipiac New Jersey 49 60 35 45 25
20-Feb Public Policy Polling Georgia 49 54 42 46 12
20-Feb Public Policy Polling Georgia 50 55 44 45 11
14-Feb Public Policy Polling Louisiana 48 56 40 45 16
14-Feb Public Policy Polling Louisiana 46 54 39 43 15
14-Feb Public Policy Polling Louisiana 46 52 40 46 12
8-Feb Public Policy Polling Alaska 42 47 35 43 12
8-Feb Public Policy Polling Alaska 53 60 46 37 14
8-Feb Public Policy Polling Alaska 44 49 37 43 12
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 49 54 44 43 10
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 46 53 38 41 15
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 49 54 44 41 10
7-Feb Public Policy Polling National 50 55 45 44 10
31-Jan Public Policy Polling Texas 45 48 41 43 7
31-Jan Public Policy Polling Texas 50 54 45 42 9
31-Jan Public Policy Polling Texas 46 51 40 45 11
24-Jan Public Policy Polling Minnesota 44 51 38 38 13
24-Jan Public Policy Polling Minnesota 50 57 43 37 14
17-Jan Public Policy Polling Florida 49 54 43 44 11
17-Jan Public Policy Polling Florida 50 56 43 46 13
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 51 54 47 38 7
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 44 52 37 42 15
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 51 55 47 37 8
10-Jan Public Policy Polling National 53 58 48 39 10

Originally posted to Inoljt on Sat May 04, 2013 at 03:53 PM PDT.

Also republished by Kossacks for Hillary.

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Comment Preferences

  •  If Hillary does decide to run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    corvo, Lujane

    she will be running into a buzzsaw.
    The Right has been sharpening their knives for her for better than twenty years.
    This will be one UGLY campaign.

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Sat May 04, 2013 at 04:31:23 PM PDT

  •  I won't vote for her. (5+ / 0-)

    For the same reason I didn't vote for her in 2008.  It's not her gender.  It's hers and her husband's politics.

  •  If she's the Dem candidate (7+ / 0-)

    I'll bite my tongue and vote for her.

    But in a primary, I'd vote for somebody a lot less corporate and a little less dynastic.

    (-6.38, -7.03) Moderate left, moderate libertarian

    by Lonely Liberal in PA on Sat May 04, 2013 at 04:52:55 PM PDT

  •  Clinton does less well with NJ men (0+ / 0-)

    than with Texas men.  So oddly, in Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, and Kansas, male voters there really won't vote for her at least in some of the polls, some of the time.  With the lowest support being Alaska, NJ, and Kansas men.

    I am not sure what the says of either Texas men or New Jersey men.  But not what I would have guessed.

    Is it possible she has more support among Southern men than previously thought?  Is it because she was Texas adjacent when she was first lady of Ark?  Do men from NJ resent her as a New Yorker?

    "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of the United States of America -9.75 -6.87

    by Uncle Moji on Sat May 04, 2013 at 05:43:54 PM PDT

    •  Well, Chris Christie is a native of New Jersey. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, CoyoteMarti

      That might be a factor in why Clinton's getting relatively low numbers in some of the polls.

      http://mypolitikal.com/

      by Inoljt on Sat May 04, 2013 at 05:59:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But according to your diary, she beats Christie (0+ / 0-)

        or any R, 49 to 45, so Christie may be a factor but she's outpolling a theoretical Chris Christie in Blue NJ, according to your own data.  Also in the polls, she narrowly beats theoetical Republican by only one point, 46 to 45 in Red Texas.  But NJ men are the drag for her in NJ.  Why?

        I think there is more than a Chris Christie factor.  Unless Christie is intensely popular with men.  Is he?

        I like Clinton, even if she is a centrist Dem.  I believe she will be our strongest candidate, and I will vote for her (I did not support her in 2008) I just don't get why she does worse in NJ among men than she does in Texas among men.

        This is your diary, any thoughts?

        "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of the United States of America -9.75 -6.87

        by Uncle Moji on Sat May 04, 2013 at 06:24:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Who knows. (0+ / 0-)

          The gender gap amongst Christie supporters is one of the greatest in the nation; there's a huge difference in support for him amongst women and men.

          Or maybe the polls are just wrong.

          http://mypolitikal.com/

          by Inoljt on Sun May 05, 2013 at 01:57:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I'm a Hillary girl (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DFWmom

    When I quit doing journalism full-time, it suddenly dawned on me that I could now publicly support a presidential candidate for the first time. My very first political donation was to Hillary in 2008, and I believe she has what it takes to win an election now. I'd like to be sure she has learned from the mistakes of 2008 -- for instance, seeding volunteers and recruiting supporters in EVERY community, not just the population centers, and better organizing her data and communications.

  •  But Is This Gap Clinton Specific? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FG, jncca, KingofSpades, GoUBears

    Or is this showing what any female candidate would get? As I'm sure a lot of progressive Democrats would be a lot less than enthusiastic about Clinton (that was certainly the case in 2008) I'm wondering if you'd get the same gap for any female Democratic nominee whose name recognition surged during a campaign (Warren, Napolitano, or whoever).

    •  That's an interesting point. (0+ / 0-)

      I don't know; to the best of my knowledge, I haven't seen any polling of female Democratic candidates other than Clinton.

      http://mypolitikal.com/

      by Inoljt on Sun May 05, 2013 at 11:17:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Other women (0+ / 0-)

        In 100% honesty, there aren't any other women that could viably be the nominee. Gillibrand and Klobuchar, and that's really it IMO.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Sun May 05, 2013 at 06:38:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Shaheen or Hassan (0+ / 0-)

          could make a play for NH, but I doubt either could make much of an impact elsewhere.

          ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

          by GoUBears on Mon May 06, 2013 at 07:03:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GoUBears

            Hassan is still fairly new to the limelight. And Shaheen has been a backbencher in the Senate. Not that being a backbencher is a problem, as we need good foot soldiers. But it is not generally a good launching pad for the presidency. To be fair, Klobuchar has been a back bencher as well, but her electoral margins raised her profile a bit when talking about a national ticket. Honestly, I can't see her being viable in a presidential primary, as she is very quiet, and doesnt have the sharp-elbowed hubris required to run for president. Think a Tim Pawlenty on our side.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Mon May 06, 2013 at 12:23:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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