Sanford hasn't quite trespassed into 50 percent territory, but he's close
Public Policy Polling (
PDF), likely voters, May 4-5, ±2.8 percent.
(Previous results.)
Mark Sanford (R): 47 (41)
Elizabeth Colbert-Busch (D): 46 (50)
Eugene Platt (G): 4 (3)
Undecided: 4 (5)
Analysis from PPP's Tom Jensen:
PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.
Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.
Another big change is that PPP's previous survey showed a decidedly unenthusiastic Republican electorate. Mitt Romney won SC-01 by 18 points, but in the last poll, he carried likely voters by just 5 points. That's now grown to 13 points, reflecting Sanford's strategic shift to national issues and perhaps some sampling variance.
One other thing worth noting about the poll is that on background checks at gun shows, 19 percent of voters said the GOP's opposition makes them more likely to support Republicans and 42 percent said it makes them less likely. Among independents, 50 percent said it made them less likely to support the GOP and 10 percent said it make them more likely.