Well this is unusual. Nate Silver, the one whom us Kossacks all admire, said this about the IRS scandal via Twitter:
Then in a recent column, Silver also points this out:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...
My rule of thumb is that a vast majority of alleged political scandals will have less electoral impact than the conventional wisdom initially holds.
There are two main reasons for this. First, voters weigh major issues like economic performance and the conduct of foreign wars heavily in making their decisions, leaving relatively little room for everything else. Second, the news media may overplay the lead story, scandalous or otherwise, on any given day, even though it may turn out to be relatively unimportant in the context of a multiyear political cycle.
But the recent admission by the Internal Revenue Service that it targeted conservative organizations with terms like “Tea Party” or “Patriot” in their names when they applied for tax-exempt status could be an exception. It has the potential to harm Democrats’ performance in next year’s midterm elections, partly by motivating a strong turnout from the Republican base.
Additional insight from Silver:
But when it comes to the grievances of Tea Party voters in particular, the I.R.S.’s actions could hardly be more substantively or symbolically resonant. Tea Party groups were explicitly targeted by the I.R.S. The Tea Party takes its name from the historical protests against unfair tax policy. And the I.R.S.’s admissions confirm longstanding reporting and complaints by conservative websites like The Blaze. The scandal could put the Tea Party back in the spotlight.
There could be some risks to Republicans in a re-energized Tea Party, but energy can go a long way in midterm elections, when turnout is otherwise fairly low. In addition, the scandal could make the Tea Party appear more sympathetic and legitimate to voters who had come to take an increasingly negative view of it. On balance, that seems like a favorable trade for Republicans.
More on the IRS scandal vs. Benghazi scandal:
One problem Republicans have had in framing the politics around Benghazi is that they are taking on some relatively popular opponents — in particular Hillary Rodham Clinton, in her former role as secretary of state. In addition, the executive branch may have the upper hand in debates surrounding national security, as Mitt Romney discovered when he pressed Mr. Obama ineffectually on Benghazi in the final presidential debate last year.
The I.R.S., although it is not quite as unpopular as you might think, is a much better target for Republicans. Moreover, some Democrats are also starting to call for an investigation into the I.R.S.’s activities. Republicans could overplay their hand, but this scandal has the potential to be seen as more than an ordinary partisan squabble, and Republicans may have a lot of leeway before they risk a backlash.
Nate, you're a great contributor and statistician but we're going to kick the GOP's ass in 2014. There's too much at stake and we can't afford two more years of more crap from John Boner, Eric Cantor and Darrell Issa and the others who continue to screw up this country. The GOP's base and the Tea Party base getting motivated over the IRS scandal isn't going to cover up the facts that they really are full of crap and they are unable to do anything about:
*The economy
*Gun control
*The environment
*Explain who really contributed to the U.S. debt in the first place
*They are worshiping Paul Ryan still
*And a host of other issues
And this video too seems to still be forgotten by the GOP: