Pew (.pdf)
In a second term marked by a series of controversies and little legislative success,
President Obama’s job approval rating has nonetheless remained fairly steady. Currently, 49% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president while 43% disapprove.
That is little changed from a month ago, before the NSA surveillance controversy and the revelations that the IRS targeted conservative groups for extra scrutiny. In early May, 51% approved of Obama’s job performance while 43% disapproved.
In fact, Obama’s current job rating has stayed at about 50% all year. He began the year with a 52% job approval mark, which fell to 47% in March, when the public’s economic expectations took a sharp turn for the worse.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted June 12-16 among 1,512 adults, finds that Obama is likely benefitting from more positive perceptions of the national economy
TPM:
While some pointed to the CNN/ORC numbers as evidence that Obama had been weakened by news of the Internal Revenue Service's targeting of conservative groups and the National Security Agency's sweeping surveillance programs, others such as polling expert Mark Blumenthal cautioned that the survey may have exaggerated the President's actual decline.
According to Pew, Obama's approval rating is seven points higher than George W. Bush's in June of 2005 but five points lower than Bill Clinton's in June of 1997.
Harry Enten:
Finally, the advantages of sticking to a polling average, median, or some form an aggregate, have already proved their worth – notably, during the 2012 campaign. Anyone relying solely on Gallup (which has subsequently taken solid steps to improve accuracy) and Rasmussen to predict the 2012 result would have been embarrassed. Whether it be the CNN/ORC survey now or an outlier Quinnipiac poll last month, the lesson is: go to the polling average, even if the story isn't as sexy.
That said, Obama should be concerned about his approval rating – especially the trust factor that appears to underpin its slide.
Chris Cillizza:
Here’s the truth about President Obama’s job approval numbers: They don’t move around all that much.
Hey, where's Unskewed guy when you need him?
More politics and policy below the fold.
NY Times:
President Obama is preparing regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, senior officials said Wednesday. The move would be the most consequential climate policy step he could take and one likely to provoke legal challenges from Republicans and some industries.
Big deal. Pay attention.
Chris Mooney:
This tendency toward so-called “motivated reasoning” helps explain why we find groups so polarized over matters where the evidence is so unequivocal: climate change, vaccines, “death panels,” the birthplace and religion of the president (PDF), and much else. It would seem that expecting people to be convinced by the facts flies in the face of, you know, the facts.
Gallup:
Immigration Reform Proposals Garner Broad Support in U.S.
Democrats, Republicans agree on many potential immigration measures
PRINCETON, NJ -- A majority of Americans would vote for each of six different policy changes that Congress is considering as part of a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Support ranges from a high of 87% for a multifaceted pathway to citizenship that includes a long waiting period, taxes and a penalty, background checks, and learning English, to a low of 53% for a law that would vary the number of immigrants the U.S. lets into the country, depending on economic conditions.
Business Insider:
For decades, the SEC has let companies and individuals settle charges without actually admitting guilt, letting bigwigs more or less off the hook with only tacit — but not legal — acknowledgment of wrongdoing.
No longer. The Commission will begin to push for more accountability on a "case-by-case" basis, the Wall Street Journal reports:
Greg Sargent:
The news that the Congressional Budget Office found that immigration reform would dramatically reduce the deficit has deprived diehard reform foes of one of their last remaining arguments: Rewarding the “takers” would sock it to the American taxpayer.
But that hasn’t stopped foes of reform from pressing forward with still more arguments. The trouble is that in the wake of the CBO news their case looks ever more absurd and desperate.