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Nine Inch Nails -- "Head Like a Hole"

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rec'd for music (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    highacidity, Zack from the SFV

    Bow down before the one you serve!

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 04:33:07 PM PDT

  •  CA-SSM: Ninth Circuit lifts stay on Prop 8 case (18+ / 0-)

    Same-sex marriages are legal throughout California effectively immediately.

    Mazel tov!

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 04:35:35 PM PDT

  •  Anyone has any idea (6+ / 0-)

    about how to come out to homophobic parents?

    I really want to, but I'm not sure how.

  •  My musical contribution (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, The Dude 415

    if you love 90's rock then you'll probably like the Seattle band that didn't make it big, Screaming Trees with a sample here and I won't embed :)

  •  I put this as my Dkos avatar this week as a joke (7+ / 0-)

    but damn I still think it's quite funny:
     photo Cookiemonster2_FB_zps842c4dc3.jpg
    I mean who doesn't like Cookie Monster? He's like the best known Sesame St. character after Big Bird or maybe Elmo and oh god those goggly eyes! But in all seriousness, how was he not inspired by the munchies on marijuana given Sesame St.'s origins in the 1960s and Jim Henson looking like a hippie.

    Anyway, I still get a chuckle out of it everytime I go back to the main page so I'm keeping it for the time being haha.
    But I think it's awesome that the New Yorker has this picture of Bert and Ernie as a gay couple happily reacting to the recent SCOTUS rulings:
     photo original_zpsb336bffa.jpg

    I'm not a huge fan of sesame street or anything seeing as it's a children's show and I'm an adult who never wants kids, but 1) damn cookie monster is funny applied to adult situations and 2) I've always thought Bert and Ernie were gay not that there's remotely any problem with that. Still it's strange to see a major publication do the same.

  •  proof you can draw 2 black majority districts (5+ / 0-)

    in Louisiana without going up to Shreveport:

     photo LA2blackmajority_zpsd70199f7.png

    I drew this a while back. It's not clean, certainly, and relies on splitting some precincts and perhaps water contiguity, but gets the job done. Both the 2nd and 6th are over 53% African American in total population, and above 50% in VAP though I don't recall by how much.

    I think its too messy, though, and would prefer something more like this:

     photo LA1blackmajority_zpsff634ca9.png

    It moves the mandated black majority district inland, to more racially polarized areas. Cleaner than the first map, too. The 6th district is again above 53% African American in total population, and above 50% in VAP. It's something like 59% Obama in 2008.

    The 2nd is a more compact district, and is white plurality in total population, but at 42% African American and over 57% Obama in 2008, would likely elect an African American Democrat. Perhaps one more moderate, and certainly not a thoroughly corrupt one, though.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 05:47:26 PM PDT

  •  WATN (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, lordpet8, SaoMagnifico, Taget

    Trey Grayson, former Kentucky SoS known for his humiliating defeat at the hands of Rand Paul in the 2010 KY-Sen Republican primary, sounds like he may be hinting at support for gay marriage? (granted, he is quoted as an analyst rather than an advocate.)

    anyone find it interesting how Margaret Marshall's former position is alluded to in the article but his isn't?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 05:47:55 PM PDT

  •  Happy weekend! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    A nerd drinking song to kick Friday night off.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 05:48:26 PM PDT

  •  Amazon is advertising Wendy Davis' shoes here (5+ / 0-)

    Kinda amused by that.  

    Apparently, they've been selling incredibly well since Tuesday.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 05:49:19 PM PDT

    •  LOL (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, LordMike, geoneb, askew

      at one of the reviews:

      I'm only gonna run a half marathon in these: Who do you think I am, Wendy Davis?

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:13:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What's the difference between men's and women's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      shoes? Not that they'd have them in big enough sizes for me, but there's probably not anything different except the style (and of course sizing)?

      "At what point must a female senator raise her voice in order to be heard over her male colleagues in the room?" | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! ...? | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:15:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Martha Coakley (7+ / 0-)

    I'm not too down on her candidacy. She's a very popular Attorney General in her own right. She's much more favorably viewed as a statewide officer then as a Senate candidate and has done much to rehabilitate her candidacy. What's more, she proved in the 2010 SEN primary that she can run good campaigns, she just wrote off the special election, which was horrible, and showed a stunning lack of political tact and preparedness in that campaign.

    But both of those are things where as a politician, lessons be learned, and I think she learned those lessons. She's probably the strongest candidate Democrats could run for Governor, and she'd be a fairly progressive standardbearer.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:00:51 PM PDT

    •  I think it's fair for people to disagree (3+ / 0-)

      on whether or not Coakley would be a good candidate, but the issue has always been the derogatory nature of some of the comments about her.

    •  I think there is an opportunity for her (5+ / 0-)

      to redeem herself here.  It's not like she was embroiled in scandal or something.  She ran a crappy, entitled campaign and got burned in a way she never dreamed of.  I'm starting to affirmatively like the idea.  And as ndrwmls mentions above, part of the reason I feel that way is because of all of the crap she's had to take - Martha Chokely, etc.  I hope she runs and wins and shoves it up all the haters' derrieres.  That's what I'd want to do if I were her.  She's going to need the fire in the belly that she lacked against Scott Brown, but I think she has more than enough incentive to have that fire.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:18:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Didn't she help give initial momentum to the (0+ / 0-)

        Windsor case against DOMA?

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:21:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, demreplib33

          she filed and won a similar lawsuit against DOMA in the First Circuit.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:28:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There were two cases (0+ / 0-)

            Gill v. Office of Personnel Management and Massachusetts v. HHS.

            They were both dismissed on June 26th, since they were challenges to Section 3 of DOMA and became moot after Windsor

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 11:12:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  "has done much to rehabilitate her candidacy" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      details?

      she proved in the 2009 primary that she can win primaries if she has more name rec than the other candidates and Bill Clinton campaigns for her.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:22:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Boston Globe poll last year (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, DCCyclone, demreplib33

        showed her approval rating at 62%, making her the most popular politician in the state.  That ought to do the trick in Massachusetts, right?  Also, albeit against week opposition, she won re-election in the 2010 wave by 26%, showing she was not damaged goods even fairly soon after the Brown debacle.

        http://www.boston.com/...

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:38:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  she ran against a nobody that even (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, SaoMagnifico, CF of Aus

          the state GOP wouldn't touch.

          She won election for AG easily in 2006 too, btw. That didn't mean anything in 2010. And winning election to lower statewide offices means little for one's chances to win higher offices, as Bill Halter, Elaine Marshall, Frank Caprio, and many others can attest to.

          as for favorables, FWIW Martha Coakley's favorability ratings plummeted in the weeks leading up to the election. she's been doing a good job as AG (a position which IMO she is suited for) but to assume that these marks would hold up in a gubernatorial campaign is, in my humble opinion, to turn a blind eye to what happened in 2009/2010.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:47:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  oh and... (0+ / 0-)

            if that Boston Globe poll was conducted by UNH (as their polls have been in the past), then I'm suspicious. UNH has had a lot of wacky results in the past, and in MA-Sen specifically they had that poll showing Coakley up 15 over Brown.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:51:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Like I said, I don't think you (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            spiderdem, Zack from the SFV

            can expec Coakley to run that kind of campaign, or for the GOP to catch lightning in a jar like that again.

            I think Coakley's been a good Attorney General and would probably make a pretty good, independent governor. It was partly because she was a woman and because she wasn't part of the good ol' boys network that Brown won (that and good ol' boys Democrats didn't think she could lose). Even Elizabeth Warren had to struggle against those parochial institutions, but she had the benefit of strong national powers pressuring them, and a Presidential race to make their role in ginning up turnout less important.

            But right now, the gubernatorial field is wide open and Coakley actually does perform the best. I think she even relishes the chance she might get to run against Brown again and make up for her 2010 loss.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:52:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  They'll plummet again (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV

            if she acts like it's a coronation and not an election.  I don't think she will.  She'd have to be pretty dense.  The special caught her napping, and then moved so fast she could not recover.  Now she has had lots of time to think about what went wrong and how to approach things differently.  She seems smart enough to adjust under the circumstances.  And lets not forget Mr. Mayor saying "screw you, you're not one of us" and not helping her.  Maybe the machine has had some time to think about that garbage too.

            Your examples are interesting because all of those people were taken down easily in the 2010 wave while Coakley thrived, albeit against second rate competition.  I think success at winning lower statewide offices is one of the best qualifications a candidate can have.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:59:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Can you link to what Menino said about her? (0+ / 0-)

              I didn't pay attention to him when this election was going on.

              "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:02:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not what he said (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                but what he did.  The thought is that he turned off the faucet on the Boston turnout machine.  Thinly sourced admittedly.  There is a counter-argument that Coakley failed to reach out as well.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:08:21 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  those people were taken down (0+ / 0-)

              when they ran for higher office. they had no problems winning their lower offices.

              basically the argument seems to be whether or not to give her the benefit of the doubt. perhaps I am a little cautious when it comes to someone who is responsible for one of the biggest Democratic humiliations in recent memory, especially when there is a bench otherwise. aside from the significance of MA having its first elected female governor, I see no benefit gained by electing Coakley to governor that can't be maintained with her staying on as AG.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:06:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Who would you have run? (0+ / 0-)

                It's slim pickings.  Grossman was held in the mid-50's in 2010.  To me, Coakley is the 800 pound gorilla here, in spite of what happened in 2010.

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:09:57 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I think it's reasonable to assume she's (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Zack from the SFV

                learned from her mistakes. It's not as if she's some unintelligent person. And that's besides the fact that she's very qualified for the position.

                I just can't imagine the DGA trying to recruit her, if they didn't think she was up for it.

                •  yeah (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  SaoMagnifico

                  no such thing as unintelligent people in politics...

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:18:31 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Here we go.... (0+ / 0-)

                    Your questioning her intelligence?

                  •  sure (4+ / 0-)

                    but what reason have we to believe she'd make the same mistakes? She starts out the race with the highest approval rating, she probably gets EMILY, and she'd have the benefit of her past experience, a full-length campaign and midterm-level turnout in what is turning out not to look like a wave year either way yet. Sounds like a good combo for Massachusetts.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:22:08 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  most of those factors aren't different (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico

                      from 2010. she looks good on paper before the campaign begins...just like before. she's got support from women's groups...just like before. if 2014 is a wave, it's probably still a bit too early to know.

                      re: turnout, the 2010 special had about 2.2 million votes cast, vs. about 2.3 million for the general. not a huge difference either way.

                      as I said before what this comes down to is whether you are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the person responsible for one of the worst elections, if not the worst election, in recent memory. perhaps I'm just risk-averse.

                      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                      by sapelcovits on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:29:06 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  There is merit in your position. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        gabjoh

                        The thing that scares me the most about her was the "Why would I shake people's hands out in the cold?" thing.  That is Mitt Romney out-of-touch and possibly worse.  And that was after things had gone south.  On paper she's the best of some pretty imperfect candidates, but she has a big downside if her 2010 behavior was more of a personality trait than an isolated incident.  Like ndrwmls, though, I expect this extremely intelligent woman to be able to learn from her mistakes and do what she needs to do to win.

                        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

                        by spiderdem on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:43:31 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  almost all of the factors which are possible to (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        gabjoh, ArkDem14, CF of Aus

                        change will be different. No election is exactly  like another one. Well, aside from the freak election of 1878 which was exactly like the elections in 1834. But no one could have predicted that there would be so many zombies.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:46:11 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  Too many people here overreact badly... (5+ / 0-)

                      ...to that special election.

                      There was bad overreaction about Obama picking Kerry at all for SoS, God forbid we have to defend a seat in another MA special election!

                      There was bad overreaction about Scott Brown running again after he just got his ass kicked.

                      There was bad overreaction for awhile that Markey might lose.

                      Now there's bad overreaction to Coakley running for Governor.

                      I swear some people practically have PTSD from that one bad election.

                      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:26:14 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  I just don't think she deserves to be governor (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        It's not so much that I think she would lose -- although if Scott Brown runs, she probably would -- but she really shat the bed at a time when the country needed her. I want a different Democrat to be governor -- not her.

  •  MI: Federal ruling on same-sex benefits (5+ / 0-)

    I'd like to see more polling on marriage equality in Michigan, and more detailed polling after a federal ruling temporarily lifting a ban on same-sex benefits (and some opposite-sex benefits) that Snyder signed into law, last year.  Fortunately at the time, the ban didn't apply to a whole host of other state employees who worked for universities (sine they are largely autonomous of state government in Michigan) or who were covered by the Michigan Civil Service Commission, but that ban did apply to those in local government and school districts.

    Polls have already shown clear majorities, but it'd be nice to keep getting ammunition for the 2016 fight.  Personally, for organizational purposes, I'd like to see a repeal effort for 2014 to gear up for a constitutional amendment already planned for 2016, but we'll see what happens.

  •  My race against the clock. (5+ / 0-)

    I'm moving!  On Monday.  To NY-13.  Maybe just for a couple of months.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:33:48 PM PDT

  •  Micheal Kempner, a top Obama fundraiser is (7+ / 0-)

    getting behind Ready for Hillary and will be raising money for the group.

    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...

  •  AR-Gov (7+ / 0-)

    I'm kinda torn over who to support in this one. My heart says Halter, but my brain screams Ross. I'll probably go with Ross because in the end, Halter is far removed from being able to win statewide in Arkansas anymore. Mark Pryor would also happily march around campaigning arm-in-arm with Ross, while he wouldn't touch Halter with a ten-foot pole. Halter on the ballot with him could also drive down Indy and soft-con support for Pryor, which would probably mean us being down a valuable senate seat.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11 Rush Holt for Senate!

    by interstate73 on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:39:44 PM PDT

    •  How liberal is Halter? (0+ / 0-)
      •  Liberal enough that he ran to the left... (0+ / 0-)

        Of then-Sen. Lincoln in 2010. It's hard to escape a profile.

      •  Not all that liberal by any means (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        psychicpanda, Gygaxian, gabjoh, skibum59

        he didn't exactly run as the Alan Grayson of Arkansas in 2010 or anything; part of the reason why liberal groups supported him was because it was abundantly obvious that Lincoln was DOA and she acted like she didn't know how to act on Health Care and other major initiatives. He ran as slightly to her left and still right of center by national standards. I don't know what his reputation was in Arkansas then though he was decently popular before 2010 but probably not afterwards. I'm sure GradyDem could tell you more, but that was the whole gist of Dem support prior to 2010. Not that he was a Grayson type, but that Lincoln was unelectable and that if there was someone both to her left and less unelectable we might as well support her.

        I think given Arkansas' hard right turn since 2008, even Ross would struggle and that Halter can't win period, but since Arkansas is a state where the gubernatorial veto can be overridden by a simple majority I really can't care too much.

        •  Ross (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          I think Mike Ross can win with female voters who don't think it's a good idea to have a gun in every classroom.  Asa Hutchinson has repeatedly said some crazy things over the years and his voting record was nothing to be proud of.

          I know most people on here despise Mike Ross so you're right it is probably not a race that many people care about.  

    •  were you planning on getting involved? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      If not, why worry?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:50:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My approach to this race is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, lordpet8, skibum59

      the Arkansas governor's vetoes can be overridden by a simple (Republican) majority. The only reason this office is worth a warm bucket of spit is appointments. I wouldn't get too shaken up about losing it. We're screwed regardless and there are better races worth worrying about.

      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        I've completely written off Arkansas except for Sen. Pryor, and I'd say he's 50-50 at best to retain his seat next year.

      •  The General Assembly is still closely divided: (5+ / 0-)

        51R, 48D, 1 Green (unless there have been any party switches following the 2012 election).  Also, there are term limits (6 years), so none of the current members will be in office after 2018.

        The trend has not been positive, but it is by no means certain that Republicans will control this chamber throughout the decade.

        Even in the State Senate, a 4 seat gain would give Democrats control again.

        •  If the Dem Party were not in shambles (0+ / 0-)

          it is possible that they could take back the House Majority.  But that would actually require organization and effort.  Apparently some of the seats held by Republicans are really blue, though.

        •  Why is the GOP being spineless? (0+ / 0-)

          The seat totals are currently close because the Democrats drew the lines in 2011. Redrawing the lines should have been their top priority in 2013, along with an omnibus bill of voter suppression tactics.

          •  Because they cannot do that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf

            only a once-a-decade panel made up of the Governor, A-G, and SoS can redistrict the legislature.  It was passed by referendum decades ago and is in the state constitution.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:30:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  None of that has any bearing on the value (0+ / 0-)

          of a governor's office where the veto can be overridden by simple majority. If we want power in Arkansas it seems to me to be that the legislature should be our top priority and the lower tier statewide offices like AG after that. Unless I'm missing out on some hugely important appointment or other powers the governor has, someone without a veto might as well be appointed by the legislature.

          Either way, a liberal state government there is basically impossible, so as a national Democrat I can't get too worked up about it. Yes there are certainly differences between the conservative Democrats who used to rule and the conservative Republicans who currently do, but eventually those people will all start voting to elect Republicans and the interest groups that dominate the Republican party will ensure they pass conservative legislation.

          Plus as KingTag says, if the GOP re-redistricts the legislative lines we're screwed.

          •  Only a panel can redistrict the legislature (0+ / 0-)

            made up of the Gov., the A-G, and the SoS.  And they can only do it at the start of the decade.  It's in the state constitution.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:29:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  There are three strong targets for Democrats (0+ / 0-)

          in the State Senate.  Rapert's (Republican incumbents in redder HDs in 2012 lost to Democrats for the level of racism and bigotry he has demonstrated), Caldwell's (Blanche Lincoln narrowly won that seat), and English's (we lost by only 300 votes in 2012).  Lesser targets include SD-6 and SD-28.  In 2014, Pryor and Ross should help bring in a decent amount of Dem votes and in 2016 (assuming HRC runs and wins the primary), Hillary should do likewise to a certain extent (I don't expect her to win, but I'd say she'd get 45%).

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:37:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  GOP and immigration reform (13+ / 0-)

    This kind of logic is just baffling to me:

    “I don't look at Obama completely as stunt casting,” says Florida-based GOP strategist Rick Wilson, “but the fact that he was the first minority president moved a lot of minority voters. And right now the group of possible Democratic nominees for 2016 looks like a meeting of the Robert Byrd fan club. It's the white boy coalition. None of these guys will light a fire for black voters.”

    Ok, so Wilson ignores Hillary Clinton, who is very popular among Hispanics and African Americans, and as Paul Begala points out in the article, could match Obama's totals among more liberal whites and exceed them with working class whites. Not to mention her performance among women.

    Secondly, though, there was a white guy who was president in the 90s who was very popular with black voters. I guess Wilson doesnt see a Bill Clinton in the 2016 field, and that's fair but you never know. Someone like Martin O'Malley, I could see doing well with minority voters, while doing better than Obama among whites, and so the GOP still doesnt win the election.

    What's interesting is the split in the GOP right now. There is one group that wants the party to do better with minorities, and knows it means moving to the center. Another group wants to do better with minorities but doesnt want to change policy-wise at all. And another group that says why bother doing better with minorities, we'll be fine.  

    •  it doesn't matter whether we run white or minority (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, gabjoh

      candidates. Regardless of what office its for, if its competitive, we'll do better than Republicans with non-whites*.

      *excluding small traditionally Republican groups like Cubans.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 06:59:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Considering Gov. O'Malley... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      Was a popular mayor of Baltimore, a city that is about 31.5 percent white, I'd say he has some appeal among minority voters.

    •  Rick Wilson is typically dumb on people of color (5+ / 0-)

      His words are the same emotional self-medication from so many Republicans and conservatives broadly.

      They are almost completely white people who associate largely with white people, since that is the nature of Republicans and conservatives.  They have no political or other relationships with communities of color.

      Wilson is typical of that.

      They'll just stay in denial for another 3½ years.  Until they lose.

      Funny thing is, if it's Hillary, there's a chance they'll just rationalize that, too, as a fluke because it's Hillary, first woman and she got outsized support from women and minorities and it won't happen again and blah blah blah.

      They might not realize how bad off they are until they lose to generic D.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:33:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hmmm (0+ / 0-)

        Most Republicans I know aren't racist.  Maybe I live in a sheltered universe myself though and I don't have many real world examples.  I guess that's a good narrative to help us win elections however.   You could very well be correct in your analysis.  

        •  Don't know your comment is responsive... (0+ / 0-)

          ...to mine.  So I'm puzzled.

          What I said was that most Republicans and conservatives are dumb when it comes to people of color.

          There is plenty of racism, too, embraced by quite a few of them and tolerated with a shrug by the rest, but that's unrelated to my point.

          My point is they are wholly ignorant of how and why people of color vote, where the numbers are going, and what motivates us.  None of this requires racism, just a lack of honest curiosity.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 05:57:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Apology (0+ / 0-)

            I apologize.  I guess I took it as you calling a large number of them racist.  I guess I understand your premise and it may be correct, but I hope in some ways that you're wrong.  If we just assume that Republicans will never try for minority votes because of a lack of honest curiosity.  I don;t want Dems to cash it in when it comes to minority voters.  

    •  Oh, also, Dave Weigel himself is ignorant (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Stephen Wolf, ArkDem14, propjoe

      This passage:

      But Republicans, increasingly, light a fire with whites. From 2008 to 2012, Barack Obama’s share of the white vote fell from 43 percent to 39 percent. Right after the election, the fact that Obama scored a smaller white vote than Michael Dukakis was cited as proof that the GOP needed to change. Flip the logic. If Republicans can build on the white trend but Democrats can’t build on the nonwhite trends, Republicans will be safe, for a while. If Republicans get back to the 66 percent white vote won by Ronald Reagan in 1984, they’re golden.
      Oy.  (And I'm not even Jewish.)

      This seems like Weigel's own take, not like his characterization of the GOP's take.

      And it's stupid.

      It's well-established that Democrats have been steady with white voters, performing in a pretty narrow band for a quarter-century.  Going from 43% to 39% in one election is not a "trend," it's just noise.  Rather, Obama's 43% tied with Clinton '96 for the all-time post-'76 Democratic high.

      To his credit, Weigel actually goes ahead and quotes Paul Begala's counter-take on his point, but really Weigel could've shown more curiosity himself by looking at the history before claiming a "trend."

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:39:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dave (7+ / 0-)

        Weigel doesn't do curiosity.  He does sardonic commentary really well, at least the tone, and that's about it.  He hits as often as he misses, and probably less, if you ask me.

        My problem with Dave is that he seems wedded to the idea of being a contrarian first and foremost, so he builds everything else around it, instead of finding the truth and building snark around it.  It's often like he's trying to play a character, and hopes the facts don't get in the way, and if they do, too bad for the facts.

      •  This is more of the same Trende nonsense (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin, jj32

        Weigel is talking there like Reagan's 1984 performance was normal. Again, this argument is basically saying that Obama leaving the scene will have an impact on some demographics but not on others. Funny how both are supposed to favor Republicans.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:12:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  noise (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Weigel neglects to mention that 2008 was a blue wave year across the board and 2012 wasn't, and that swing voters are overwhelmingly white.

        Obama also probably got a bit more than 39% of the white vote in 2012. If you add up the total vote share based on the ethnic breakdown from the exit poll, it works out to a 3 point win for Obama when in fact he won by 4.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:18:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Detroit Mayoral Race (6+ / 0-)

    After bowing out of the Detroit mayoral race a few days ago after a state appeals court kept him off the ballot, Mike Duggan - one of  the two frontrunners in the race - is mounting a write-in campaign to put himself back in the primary hopping to get to the general election:

    Detroit— The roller coaster ride of former Detroit Medical Center CEO Mike Duggan took another turn Friday when he announced he will jump back into the race as a write-in candidate for mayor.

    Duggan’s impending decision comes a few days after he cut short a vacation to meet with supporters who urged him to mount a write-in campaign.

    Nearly a week ago, Duggan shut down his campaign after the Court of Appeals ruled to keep him off the Aug. 6 primary ballot because he violated city residency requirements. But after discussing the issue with several advisors and supporters, Duggan said he couldn’t resist getting back into the race.

    Duggan entered his news conference to a round of applause just before making his announcement. Duggan said he went on vacation and turned off his phone. When he turned it on Monday, he said he received hundreds of messages saying they wanted him to be a write-in candidate on the ballot.

    “The last place I thought I would be one week ago is back here,” said Duggan, who made his announcement at his campaign headquarters on Jefferson Avenue. “Today was the day we were going to turn the keys into the landlord. I still don’t know how to describe the power of what happened. I did not expect this kind of reaction. I feel like the luckiest guy in the world.”

    He'll probably need about 20,000 write-in votes, but given the strong support for the guy and his relatively easy name, I don't think this will be much trouble at all.  Detroit politics needs a shake-up, and I support the guy if only for this reason.  Go Mike.  

    It was recently announced that the FBI is looking into the Wayne County Sherriff's Department headed up by Benny Napolean, the other frontrunner, so it totally makes sense for Mike not to give this up without a fight.

    •  What exactly is the shake up? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      A white mayor?

      •  Yes, quite frankly. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, SaoMagnifico, skibum59

        I mean, Benny is the favorite of the unions, but Detroit's been electing hangers-on like Benny Napolean for years.  It's really time to stop electing these crooks, and I say this as a liberal progressive.  

        At the end of the day, they are all liberalish Dems, but unlike Benny, Mike won't be beholden to the same interests that have been holding on or the decade's long decline with almost nothing to show for it.  Given how little power the mayor will have for the first half of his term, Detroit needs to make a statement.  While Mike is himself a creature of the county, there is enough distance for him to bring a fresh approach, but enough of a familiarity to know where some of the bodies are hidden.  That was the problem with Bing; he had too much of the former and not enough of the latter.  You put all those things together, and Duggan will bring back some balance that has swung from socialist-minded mayors like Coleman Young to borderline Republicans capitalists like Dave Bing.

      •  BTW (8+ / 0-)

        I did not appreciate Benny's borderline racists comments right upon entering the race.  All of the "our town" and "carpetbagger" bullsh%t that doesn't get called for the racist crap that it is.  I'm a black progressive, and I'm tired of this sh%t.  My grandparent's generation used to scream bloody murder when the conservative white mayors of 50's Detroit used to blow these racist dog whistles, and then we turn around and do the same thing and hope to get rewarded?  No, not today, not anymore.  

        Benny expected to be handed the race on a platter because he's well known and he's black, which is essentially all you had to be to be elected city-wide in Detroit.  Mike needs to win if just to show that this crap doesn't work, anymore, and judging by the polling, that's been a very real possibility since the day he announced.  It's why Barrow was trying so hard to get him disqualified in the first place.  Barrow knows that he doesn't have a chance in hell, so he got in to try and spoil the race for Duggan handing Benny the seat.

        Time to shake up the old guard who think they can continue tricking the city's residents and getting rich off of them while the city literally crumbles around them.

        •  Is he not carpetbagging? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Dude 415

          If he is barely achieving the residency requirement, isn't that a legitimate grounds for attack?

          (And if the situation is as I understand it, of course that's racially charged. He's a white guy coming from the largely white suburbs to govern the mostly black city. Possibly he's the better candidate, but that's certainly a legitimate strike against him, that there would be less of a voice for an already underrepresented community.)

          But maybe there's an additional wrinkle I'm not taking under consideration?

          "At what point must a female senator raise her voice in order to be heard over her male colleagues in the room?" | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! ...? | Yard signs don't vote.

          by gabjoh on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:27:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Carpetbagging (0+ / 0-)

            In theory, carpetbagging is a legitimate charge.  I mean, Dave Bing was a suburban carpetbagger - and worse than Duggan, in fact, because he literally rented an apartment in Detroit just to run while still living in Franklin for a good part of his term before moving into the mayoral mansion - and a few people let him know it.  The difference is the tone and the other terms they couple with the charge of carpetbagging that weren't used against Bing.  

            BTW, Duggan has worked harder than any candidate in recent memory to meet voters, particularly because he has to because of his color, and it's showing in the fact that he's running neck-and-neck with Benny in a city that's upwards of 90% minority, and you can tell that Benny is pissed that he actually has to work for this.  And, again, let me just say that I wouldn't be at all shocked to find this FBI investigation eventually reach up to him, and even if it doesn't, this isn't the kind of bull Detroit needs, again.

            So, the problem isn't specifically with the charge of carpetbagging, but kind of the peculiar strength of how they fling that and other terms at him.

  •  CA SD-16 debate (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.kmph-kfre.com/

    for those who might be interested.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:17:42 PM PDT

  •  Another sign Christie is running for president (10+ / 0-)

    He just vetoed Medicaid expansion today, after saying in February he would support it, because otherwise that money would go to other states.

    No word yet from his office on why he vetoed; that is whether he has a specific problem with the bill or has completely flip flopped.

    link.

  •  Texas Special Session (12+ / 0-)

    http://gqrr.com/...

    Key quotes:

    Of registered voters, 63 percent say the state has enough restrictions on abortion and 71 percent thinking that the Governor and legislature should be more focused on the economy and jobs.
    80 percent do not want abortion to be raised during the special session of the legislature called at the end of May by Governor Rick Perry.
    Overall, only 34 percent trust the Governor and the legislature to make decisions about women's healthcare.
    Overall, a majority (51 percent) oppose the current legislation in the legislature
    This poll was by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, who are generally an exceptional polling firm.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 07:43:33 PM PDT

  •  Brian Sims, my state rep (3+ / 0-)

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 08:36:38 PM PDT

    •  Also, overhead in Harrisburg pub Thursday night (5+ / 0-)

      Me: Sitting at the bar attempting to eat dinner

      Overheard patrons: aged-out fratboys at first apearance

      AOFAFA 1: "When I was first elected, a guy asked me about gay marriage. Mid-40s white dude. I told him the truth anyway: I think people should do what they want. Turns out, he has an ex wife, two kids, and a boyfriend."

      AOFAFA 2: "Karma."

      Or, well, something like that. No, I did not recognize either of them. But it was a basically a nice highlight to an otherwise iffy week (other than the Supreme Court decisions covering the same subject matter, of course).

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:35:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm concerned about that Sean Trende thing... (8+ / 0-)

    Not so much his analysis, which is pretty much wishful thinking, but the effect of Republicans believing his analysis.  We're going to see the Southern Strategy nuclear bomb, I think, as a result.  It will go beyond just voter ID cards and redistricting, but trying to scapegoat and punish anything even remotely possibly minority related (including urban and suburan funding) in an attempt to entice resentment among their core "white voters".  Even if it doesn't work, or even backfires, there's going to be a lot of pain and misery for many people in the meantime. There is going to be a lot of scorched earth, and it's going to be very ugly.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:06:18 PM PDT

    •  But that's already happening to some extent (8+ / 0-)

      The entire notion of the doughnut effect in cities is based on this "punishment" or at best neglect of urban areas. Struggles over school funding, transportation priorities, social welfare, etc. often have an urban-vs.-everyone else, and by extension a racial, angle.

      The problem with the GOP is that they might have already hit the ceiling with white voters. And here's another major factor floating around here: women. Women tend to vote more Democratic than men. The current attacks not only people of color but also women work in tandem and their effects manifest in tandem. These factors cannot simply be seen in isolation.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:27:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  First sentence of your last paragraph (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, LordMike

        Whether or not that is true is the million dollar question. I suspect that it isn't exactly true, but that it also isn't far wrong either.

        I only prevaricate sometimes . . . .

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:29:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Okay, that statement might have been too absolute (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          andgarden, LordMike

          But the overarching point remains: this kind of thing isn't new. It's happening now. Will it get worse in the meantime? Probably. Is it bad? Definitely. But this article won't be the spark of some sudden lurch back to the time of Moses because that has been the trend in the GOP for some time now. It doesn't matter what article or situation validates that regressive platform; it's already here.

          23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

          by kurykh on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:00:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  We already knew that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, skibum59, bythesea

      If it wasn't Sean Trende, it would be Michael Barone or Charles Krauthammer or one of the other right-wing "intelligent"sia telling them it's okay to eat candy for breakfast, lunch, and dinner (the electoral equivalent thereof). We already knew House Republicans were going to thumb their noses at anything to do with legislation benefiting brown people. We already knew they were going to rot out all their teeth and get type II diabetes and eventually keel over while sitting on the john (the electoral equivalent thereof).

      The thing that concerns me more than Republicans continuing to flip the bird to a country that now has them in the rear-view mirror all the way down Sunset Highway is the idea that once the Republican base dies off enough that the party is dominated more by equally conservative but more pragmatic and less rabid ideologues, the GOP will do a 180 and play an instrumental role in something that really benefits illegal immigrants or another downtrodden group, and like magic, all of its past, present, and future sins will be absolved.

      You can say that's crazy and it would never happen, but that's basically what Democrats did in the 1960s -- and it worked.

      •  Disagree with your last sentence... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, gabjoh, sacman701

        Civil rights had been an issue that Democrats had been evolving on since the 1930's.  There were lots of splits, but FDR, Truman, etc. all made strong attempts to advance civil rights against the wishes of many of it's members.  The GOP may have been the party of lincoln, but it did little to advance the cause (even if it did not actively hinder it).  While the civil rights bills of the 60's were big in bringing minorities to the Democratic party, I think that Nixon's blatant race baiting did much more.

        I find it hard to believe that the the GOP would get much credit for immigration reform, considering what people are hearing from the GOP base.  Yes, southern democrats screamed just as much in the 60's, but there are two big differences here.  One, a Democratic president pushed those initiatives.  Two, the Democrats didn't do it to get more votes.  The minority vote was paltry back then.  I would say that had Bush managed to get immigration reform through, the GOP probably would be in much, much better shape, because he would have gotten a lot of credit for going against much of his base.  Right now, I have a hard time believing that anyone will get much credit from their side for what is clearly an attempt to pander for voters--one that will be vehemently opposed in the press by most of the GOP base.

        But, who knows.  The GOP are master manipulators.  They might make a winning case out of this, yet.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:06:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hence why whenever a non-white Republican (9+ / 0-)

          says they are Republican because it's the party of Lincoln because he emancipated the slaves while the Democrats are the party of the Confederacy (rum, romanism, and rebellion) I roll my eyes.  That was ages ago when politics and the Overton window was vastly different.  Lincoln was a liberal in his own right as he believed in a centralized US government at all costs, instituted the first income tax (to cover war costs in part), and was opposed to nullification.  Democrats were the conservatives calling for decentralized government, nullification, and the right to own slaves as property and the government should stay out of it.

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:39:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  entirely different time period (6+ / 0-)

            I hate conservatives as much as the next guy, but there are a lot of things people tend to gloss over

            1. being antislavery didn't necessarily mean supporting civil rights for blacks

            2. blacks were voting for democrats before 1964. 1936 is the first election where polls showed them voting dem. They were probably closer to hispanics now however.

            3. blacks started voting democrat because they were often introduced to leftist politics from the eastern european immigrants when they came to the urban centers. Southern black however, who were mostly disenfranchised and declining in %, voted republican until 1964 (I read this in Kevin Phillips book)

            4. the south was voting republican as early as 1952. It wasn't a racial factor as much as it was economic. Areas like Charlotte, NOVA, St Petersburg, Dallas were prosperous metro areas and the rural corrupt pork barrel dixiecrat structure didn't reasonate as much. A lot of the residents weren't even from the south.

            RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

            by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:58:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's true (6+ / 0-)

              Texas went for Eisenhower both times and even putting LBJ on the ticket BARELY put JFK across the line there in 1960. JFK also did worse in the south arguably than Adlai Stevenson did, overall. He BARELY won South Carolina in 1960...and that was when Strom Thurmond was still a Democrat. To say that "it started with the Civil Rights Act of 1964" is simply false.

              •  Ike also pandered to southern evangelicals (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike

                by working closely with the likes of Billy Graham and Abraham Vereide despite not being evangelical himself.

                "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:31:28 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  JFK's Catholicism hurt him too. (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, HoosierD42, bythesea

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Love the class war, hate identity politics and purism
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                by jncca on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:29:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  All very good points (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, KingofSpades

          I hope you're right -- and you probably will be. It's just a worry that comes to me sometimes, born out of the myriad examples of IOKIYAR and things like President Bush's favorability rebounding now that he's out of office -- all the stuff that makes me question just how long a political memory Americans actually have, for all of the memes and trends and scandals-of-the-day that punctuate the news cycle.

    •  No such strategy will work, but... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, LordMike, sacman701, bythesea

      ...you're right that real damage will be done in the meantime in red states, and currently red-controlled purple states.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 09:43:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, the scary line in Trende's article... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        geoneb

        ...is where he says that there's no reason why the GOP can't continue to make gains with white voters.  He doesn't specify what the GOP needs to do to make those gains, but I can imagine it's some pretty ugly stuff.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:17:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think it's only about gains (7+ / 0-)

          There's little left to add in terms of raw numbers, and if the GOP remains an unreconstructed troglodyte there's only subtraction left. Now that's the ugly part.

          23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

          by kurykh on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:21:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I sarcastically thought in response to him (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, Chachy, skibum59

          was "so the GOP should go all white nationalist?" Because it's kinda silly to try to reduce the Dem share of the white vote to 30%.  You'd have to start winning white left-of center voters to do that.

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:34:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, this is exactly my thought. (4+ / 0-)

            Is an increasingly white nationalist appeal going to win over white single mothers? Teachers and nurses? Artists and intellectuals? Environmentalists? Bourgeois urbanists? Tech industry workers? College students?

            Of course not. Such an appeal may solidify Republican gains in like West Virginia, but will just push all these other groups more firmly into the Democratic base.

            The problem for republicans isn't just the growing minority population, it's that their base is shrinking as a portion of the white population, too.

            •  Maybe they can adopt this tune to "attract" kids: (0+ / 0-)

              "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 11:44:45 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I think some of the current college students (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              and other young white Dems could be persuaded later, though, as they get older.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:10:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Can Democrats really drop below 2010 results? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Democrats won 37% of the white vote that turned out in the 2010 midterm elections.

          http://www.cnn.com/...

          On a certain level, I would assess that it could certainly get worse in Arkansas and West Virginia. However, those states are ultimately not the future of this party (just as New York and Massachusetts are not the future of the Republican Party).

          Ultimately, you can make some interesting scenarios if you assume the Democratic floor in a Presidential turnout scenario is 37% of the White vote with the Nate Silver tool http://www.nytimes.com/...

        •  well someone like Trende would suggest that the (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Great Lakes states still have room for improvement. He's essentially playing devil's advocate and is almost saying that the GOP should go the third positionist route:
          http://en.wikipedia.org/...

          this type of ideology dates back to the mid 20th century with the likes of Gerald L.K. Smith:
          http://www.youtube.com/...

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 11:01:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not many more gains they can make (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, sacman701

          When you get down to the floor of the white vote for Democrats, around 37%, what you have left is an assortment of liberals and moderates who aren't that swingy. After that, there's a small amount of conservadems who vote Democratic because their parents and grandparents did, which could be winnable for Republicans, but it's small and mostly distributed in red states. Even that segment may be too stubborn to flip, because tradition can be tough to break.

          27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 11:38:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  republicans already believe in that strategy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      just listening to Trende isn't going to magically give them an opinion. And Trende I think means well. I've talked with him on twitter and he seems like a nice guy. Big difference between him and Jay Cost (talking to Cost is like talking to a brick wall).

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:50:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Electoral College Splitting (0+ / 0-)

      Nothing can stop the GOP from passing laws in North Carolina,  Virginia, Michigan, and eventually Georgia and Florida splitting evs by cd. Heck, they could make 100% of the state's electoral votes go to winner of the most congressional districts. That would have goven Romney all of Virginia,  Florida, North Carolina,  Pennsylvania,  Wisconsin,  Ohio, and Michigan.

      With such laws, they could win the Presidency with about 58% of the white vote for the forseeble future, and the House and Senate would favor them anyway

      •  Except... (8+ / 0-)

        It would completely blow up in the faces of the legislators who vote for it. This isn't like redistricting, it's such a blatant power-grab for an office that gets a huge amount of attention, and there's not really a good argument about why they're doing it except as a blatant power-grab.

        That's really why Republicans didn't pass it in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, because they don't want to allow their asses to be handed to them like that, especially for something that would likely be overturned at either the ballot box or by them basically losing their hold on each legislative chamber.

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:53:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Except they've held back on such cheating. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, gabjoh, bythesea

        Talk of doing it died out.  And if they made it so those that won a majority of the CDs won all of the EVs, it would spark a constitutional crisis since the person who won the state would be denied any EVs.  Frankly, if we are to keep the Electoral College, the Electors should be taken out of the hands of the state (except to punish rogue electors).

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 09:54:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The funniest thing, as I think about it... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      ...is how all last year the Goopers were convinced they had the enthusiasm edge.

      But now it's missing white voters!

      It's all hilarious.

      They need to come to terms with demographic reality to even begin any type of comeback.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 05:52:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  finished doing an algorithmic redistricting of the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Illinois House of Representatives. Here is what I found:

    The median seat is 57.8% Obama or D+4.1 (08 #s). This is an antiliberal bias of 4.9 points. The generic majority the dems would have (PVI) is 81-37, meaning that Obama got below 53.7% in 37 districts. If one subtracts 2.4 points from the PVI (D+9 in 08 to D+6.6 in 12), then that number goes down to a 71-47 dem majority.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jun 28, 2013 at 10:47:00 PM PDT

  •  VA-GOV, as always (5+ / 0-)

    Canvassing today and tomorrow for McAuliffe. Looking to bring in as many volunteers as possible, and as early in the cycle as possible.

  •  New diary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, CF of Aus

    Part 2 of my series on Maine Political Geography is out. It focuses on the Mid-Coast region of Maine.

    Enjoy!

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 08:36:06 AM PDT

  •  couple fair maps of South Carolina, Alabama (6+ / 0-)

    so here is the fair map of South Carolina, an improved version of one I've posted before which got some positive reviews. It stretches out SC-07 a bit more, but in return the 6th becomes a district entirely based on rural and smaller city black populations, where there is more racially polarized voting, and leaves Charleston and Columbia completely out of it.

     photo sc-03_zpsb5784fb7.png

    1st: 50% Obama in 2008, 44.9% Dem average, 25.9% black VAP
    2nd: 53.6% Obama, 52% Dem average, 34.1% black VAP
    3rd: 34.8% Obama, 33.6% Dem average, 19.6% black VAP
    4th: 34.4% Obama, 32.9% Dem average, 13.7% black VAP
    5th: 40.7% Obama, 38.1% Dem average, 21.3% black VAP
    6th: 59.5% Obama, 57.4% Dem average, 50.3% black VAP
    7th: 40.4% Obama, 36.9% Dem average, 19.5% black VAP

    Here is a similar map of Alabama, done to ensure Mobile and Birmingham both their own districts and a Montgomery+rural and smaller cities district where there is more racially polarized voting. This one stretches the 2nd district a little thin, but otherwise I like it a lot.

     photo alfair_zps8f809df1.png

    1st: 37.5% Obama in 2008, 39.2% Dem average, 24.4% black VAP
    2nd: 32.3% Obama, 38.2% Dem average, 21% black VAP
    3rd: 24.6% Obama, 31.1% Dem average, 14.1% black VAP
    4th: 23.3% Obama, 37.1% Dem average, 5.5% black VAP
    5th: 38.3% Obama, 49.9% Dem average, 16.9% black VAP
    6th: 51.3% Obama, 51% Dem average, 38.6% black VAP
    7th: 58.6% Obama, 60.2% Dem average, 51.5% black VAP

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 08:59:24 AM PDT

  •  CA-36 question (0+ / 0-)

    How has Raul Ruiz been doing? I liked his candidacy, and thought that he seemed like an incredibly nice guy, but I haven't heard much about him since then. What's he been doing in the House, and does he have any GOP opponents waiting to run against him?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 09:50:15 AM PDT

    •  he seems to be taking a low profile which is the (0+ / 0-)

      smart thing to do in a marginal district like his. No one has declared against him, but I'd assume he'd get a top flight challenger.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:14:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Assemblyman Nestande is running. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Zack from the SFV

        Perhaps a step below top tier (which would probably be a veteran county supervisor or Bonnie Garcia, neither of which are running for this for sure).  Statewide Dems in 2014 should invest a good deal of cash in Riverside and San Diego County Dem organizations.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:24:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Speaking of Bonnie Garcia (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          (who is running for an open red-leaning SD in 2014), she held Assembly District 80 as a Republican before being appointed to something by Schwarzenegger (who made very creepy comments about the disposition of her ethnicity).  That district apparently moved blue rapidly ever since.  It was won by Dem Manuel Perez in 2008 70K votes to 63K votes.  Perez topped that in 2010 over a Republican with a Hispanic surname 58K to 42K.

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:38:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I actually consider Nestande (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, jncca

          a top recruit.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 01:32:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I didn't say he wasn't (0+ / 0-)

            just that he wasn't top of the top.  He seems Tony Strickland-ish.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 02:50:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't see that one (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, Zack from the SFV

              Nestande is a relative moderate, and a far better fit for that district than Strickland was for his race. He may also be a better fit that Garcia, who as far as I know was just a conventional conservative in the legislature. I don't know how good a fundraiser he is, though.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 05:43:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Let's look at his last election also (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, ehstronghold

            Here's his district: http://www.mpimaps.com/...
            In 2008, Obama got 45.38% to McCain's 51.66%.  In 2012 elections, Nestande won only 54.7%-45.3% over a Democrat who had raised less than 10% of the money he raised.  It should also be noted that there was no contested primary (i.e. it was just Dem vs. GOP in the primary and the general) so Nestande didn't blow a bunch in the primary like say the GOPer in AD-36 did.  However, I would have to say that this race is extremely likely going to be tossup when the election is thrown into full throttle if Ruiz does a good job.  After all, Obama got slightly less than 50% here in 2012.  Hence why CA Dems need a great year and should invest more in counties like this and SD County.

            "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 03:00:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  he's been voting surprisingly (0+ / 0-)

      moderately given his background, though not his district.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:15:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  How so? (0+ / 0-)

        Is he like Cheri Bustos and opposing both the GOP and Dem budgets?

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:26:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't recall specifically but others have been (0+ / 0-)

          discussing some of the big votes and who has been defecting, and he's been making the list a lot more than I expected him to.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:12:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  question about DuPage County, IL (0+ / 0-)

    it is the home of Wheaton College (known as the Bob Jones of the north) and the headquarters for "Americans for Truth About Homosexuality". Does that influence the local political culture of the area?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:15:39 AM PDT

    •  Had no idea. (0+ / 0-)

      I vaguely recall seeing Wheaton as blue on DRA.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:25:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, it does. (0+ / 0-)

      Wheaton tends to be a bit more conservative than the surrounding areas in DuPage County. The lovely Henry Hyde (of Hyde amendment and Clinton impeachment fame) is from the area, and Milton Township (in which Wheaton lies) is one of the more Republican townships in DuPage.

      The area did vote for Obama, but also snapped back in 2010 and gave large margins to Kirk and Brady. Brady actually outran Kirk in some areas of Wheaton (or lagged Kirk less than you'd otherwise expect), despite Kirk generally outpolling Brady in the suburbs (likely on account of Brady's social conservatism).

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

      by jeffmd on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:53:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wheaton has the most churches per capita in the US (0+ / 0-)

      So yes.

      That said, Wheaton is Billy Graham's school, so while it's evangelical it's nowhere near as bad as BJU. It's actually an accredited university, for one thing.

  •  Any news on the CA SD-16 race? (4+ / 0-)

    They had a debate the other day.  How is Perez doing in this leg of the campaign?

    "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:29:27 AM PDT

  •  well a couple of my friends are hosting (3+ / 0-)

    a phone bank for her.
    https://www.facebook.com/...

    “Democrats legislate; Republicans investigate.” ~ Lyndon Johnson

    by lordpet8 on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 11:09:26 AM PDT

  •  Game: Retirement Guess (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Gygaxian, CF of Aus

    Every election season there's a couple of House retirements that seem to be quite unexpected. Campbell (CA-45) is one this season.

    Let's have a game: everyone predicts a unique Congresscritter whose potential retirement has not been speculated on by the media and who is expected to run but that will retire. All those who mention a Rep. that turns out to be retiring gets bragging rights.

    I'll start: Niki Tsongas.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 11:18:11 AM PDT

  •  How one election transformed the Prop. 8 case (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, lordpet8, KingofSpades, itskevin

    My first diary in a while.

    Must be a quiet Saturday.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 12:57:56 PM PDT

  •  State Legislatures (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, itskevin, Darth Jeff, sacman701

    My armchair analysis of possible targets for 2014.  I used the National Conference of State Legislature's StateVote page to find current composition.

    Democratic Targets

    1. NY Senate (Dems have 46%)
    2. PA Senate (46%)
    3. PA House (46%)
    4. MI House (46%)
    5. IA House (47%)
    6. NH Senate (46%)
    7. WI Senate (45%)
    8. MT Senate (46%)
    9. AZ Senate (43%)
    10. AR House (49%)

    Republican Targets

    1. WV House (Dems have 54%)
    2. KY House (55%)
    3. IA Senate (52%)
    4. NV Senate (52%)
    5. NH House (55%)
    6. OR Senate (53%)
    7. CO Senate (54%)
    8. CO House (55%)
    9. MN House (54%)
    10. NM House (54%)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 02:58:19 PM PDT

    •  Some context is probably needed for these. (0+ / 0-)

      Eg how many seats needed to get a majority.

      Does 46% for NY include the IDC ?

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

      by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 04:47:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe NY (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        is just straight partisanship.  Yes this was just a quick and dirty.  Definitely need more information in how many seats are up and how many are needed for control.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 05:17:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  problem for Republicans (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, spiderdem, bythesea

      2010 was a good year for them, they picked up 2 of the 4 swingy senate seats up. The other two were SD-03, which is only like D+2 at best but has a strong Democratic base in Ashland, and the incumbent was caught napping but still won by the skin of his teeth, and SD-16 where they didn't even put up a challenge because though its only D+3, it is ancestrally more Democratic and they have little bench.

      There are two Republicans up in D+6 and D+7 districts in Hillsboro and Corvallis-Albany. One of them is an appointee who is too conservative and replaced a popular moderate who resigned to retire. The other had both of the nested house districts in his district picked up by Democrats last year, and he ran an uninspiring statewide race for labor commissioner and lost. There are 2-3 other races we might make plays for too. If anything, we should pick up seats.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 10:49:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  PA Senate/MI House (0+ / 0-)

      PA Senate: There are a couple of seats in SEPA that are winnable by Dems but probably not until they're open, and there's zero evidence that unpopular Republicans at the top of the ticket affect GOP State Senators in PA.  The GOP is also almost definitely going to pick up SD-38 next year after they Jim Ferlo's home in the city of Pittsburgh in with some very red suburbs.  

      MI House:  This chamber may be too gerrymandered to win this decade.  By popular vote, Dems got 350,000 more than the GOP in 2012 but the GOP won 8 more seats.  Some of the Detroit seats are going to be naturally vote sinks (Dems won some of them by over 90 points) but the rest of the state is pretty much drawn to be nearly impossible for Dems to win.  

      •  MI-House (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, HoosierD42

        I think it is possible for Dems to take it back in 2016. Dems only need 5 seats for a majority. 2014 may be tough, but the 2010 Republicans will be term-limited in 2016. That should make the 56th district competitive. It should also help in the 108th, 57th, 23rd, 101st, 106th if we don't manage to take those seats back in 2014. If we actually invest money in the 41st, we could win. The Dems did not target or invest in that race but it was one of the closest races in 2012. The 39th should always be a fairly competitive districts. While we have some tough defenses, the only district we will definitely lose in 2014 is the 84th.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 05:11:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slacks, lordpet8

        I think the state house is easily gettable, and one we will get in 2014.  The Senate has always been a lost cause, but even with the gerrymanders, the House is still competitive.  Quite frankly, the state's been gerrymandered for so long that there really wasn't much changing the 2010 gerrymander.

  •  On TX and Wendy Davis (4+ / 0-)

    I had to think about this for a while.

    A bid for governor is suicide. Abbott will be the GOP nominee and his COH will obliterate her and everyone else. Perry has a national network of cash and a loyal following of grassroots activists. We are not there yet to take them on.

    Running for re-election for her leans GOP senate seat is the smart thing to do.

    However, if she chooses to go statewide, there is one option where she could win.

    Lieutenant Governor. Of the 4 GOPers in the race she could take either incumbent Dewhurst or challenger Dan Patrick. Dew on the Platform of how he's abused the rules, and has been a soft leader and Patrick ... he WILL say rape: Often. Patrick also has said he wants to get rid of 2/3 rule, you got a platform of turning the Texas lege into Washington, right there. If Patterson or Staples gets it, we got nothing. But Dew is so desperate and Patrick is so crazy, the chance for an upset exists.

    Whatever she does, she should make no commitments until November.

    SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

    by trowaman on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 03:01:06 PM PDT

    •  If she runs, we likely lose her Senate seat (0+ / 0-)

      Which then gives the Republicans a two-thirds majority.

      She should absolutely run in the future. But 2014 isn't it.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 12:21:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No .... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        We are at 11 Ds then, meaning we can lose 0, as seen with this bill, we lost 1 but could block cause we had 11 others. Before Wendy, Sen Gallegos had to have his hospital bed on the floor of the senate to block bills, cause we could afford 0 spares, but block we could.

        I'm not sold that FW Councilman Joel Burns (it gets better fame) couldn't win it. And there's no guarantee Wendy could hold in a gov year either, she has only run in POTUS years before and drew the wrong straw this cycle. The thing about Tarrant County Dems: every one of them is an A+ rock star and they work together, from school board to Wendy and Marc Veasey.

        SSP alumni, 28, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

        by trowaman on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 02:13:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I thought her Senate seat wasn't up (0+ / 0-)

          until 2016. She won it in 2008 and was re-elected in 2012. Did redistricting put her into a seat that is up in '14?

           Sometimes weird stuff happens in redistricting. For a couple of years in the early '90s I had two state Senators. Now I have none until after the 2014 election (at least that I had any vote on. )

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:29:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm finding this pretty creepy (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    "Once you move marriage beyond the scope of a man and a woman, you really don't end up with a good place to put a limit," said Gohmert, who also argued that such practices were a mile-marker on a nation's way to the "dustbin of history."

    "I think polygamy is wrong, bigamy is wrong, and it's a crime in many places -- but how will that be justifiable now that the court has removed this?" Gohmert said. "There's some [who] believe polygamy is a way to go."

    And he topped it off with a nice little dose of misogyny:
    "You know, King Solomon, many -- including me -- believe was the wisest man who ever lived," Gohmert said. "Of course, then he had too many wives, and that [will] always mess up anybody's wisdom."
    Listen to Michelle Bachmann:
    "We need to pray. We need to pray," she said. "We need to confess our sins as a nation, and we need to pray and ask God for his holy intervention, and for his forgiveness."
    For years now these people have been couching extremism in unsubtle ways. They've practically been begging for tragedy, or for mass insurrection/collapse of American society so that they can inflict their dominatory and militiant ideology on a larger population they view as sinful and lazy, and not truly American (for having different opinions than them).

    Also, apparently social networking is pretty big on this sub-site. I've got a crazy facebook that is mostly intentional quirkiness and occasional politics, but anyone who is interested feel free to message me on Dailykos and I'm fine with adding those folks I know through this site and have for a while.

    And man am I tired. A day and half of driving to make it to Madison, Wisconsin. I kept keeping tabs on the political geography of the counties we passed and their congressional districts. Passed through Janesville, saw the St. Louis Arch for the first time, along with Rockford, Illinois and much of south IL (mostly Bill Enyart's district).

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 03:14:16 PM PDT

  •  Australian Federal Election (9+ / 0-)

    Another poll out showing Labor's fortune's dramatically improving with Kevin Rudd's return as Prime Minister. This time it's Galaxy showing the Coalition leading by just 51-49%. Kevin Rudd leads Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister 51-34%. Crosstabs here.

    Now before I go further I'd be committing political malpractice by saying Labor's bounce back in the polls reflects a new reality in Australian politics.

    It's arguable that Labor is currently basking in the glow of kicking out Gillard and replacing her with Rudd. After all Kevin Rudd has had over three years of nothing but positive press and the idea that he was a political martyr assassinated by the faceless men of Labor (Bill Shorten and Mark Arbib among them).

    The point is, it's too early to tell whether or not Labor can turn the election into their favor since even with Rudd back at the helm the Coalition has led in every poll. And the campaign hasn't kicked off yet and the Liberals will be more than happy to sling some of that truck load of dirt Gillard and her loyalists dumped on Rudd last year during his first leadership challenge.

    Though I do agree that Rudd's return as PM has helped Labor in it's heartland seats and in Western Sydney where voters long ago stopped listening to Julia Gillard. Question now is, can Rudd help Labor win another three years in power?

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 08:20:05 PM PDT

    •  which election date (0+ / 0-)

      is the most advantageous for Labor?

      •  This is the million dollar question... (0+ / 0-)

        I think everyone has their opinion but all options have their pluses and minuses... But I think he will pick the date that fits the winning strategy as opposed to picking a date just to limit losses. So whatever fits the go for broke option that is what he will go for.

        By the by, Bill Glasson
        (his opponent) appears very well resourced... You can't go through a major intersection in the area without seeing Liberal party volunteers manning booths. He hasn't got a chance of course... Rudd will smash him easily.

        Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad - Absent for a few months. Got me a woman and a house now. New comments is [back]... Mark Sanford is what now ? sawolf is Stephen Wolf, & DKE have all the pres results... First!

        by CF of Aus on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 08:48:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  At (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        first I thought an early election would be the best since in theory since it would allow Labor to preserve as much of the momentum from the leadership change as possible.

        But then again Julia Gillard went early to the polls and look what good it did for Labor. Plus the leadership change really messed up things in Labor since they have to draft a whole new campaign strategy and nominate new candidates in Gillard and those among her loyalists who chose to call it quits rather than be in the same caucus with a man they absolutely loathe even if Labor won the election.

        Also the Liberal party have been ready for any election date for months now. They've been holding American style campaign rallies (usually the only rally in Australian politics happens in the last week or two before the election) for months now.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 08:58:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think it might be best (0+ / 0-)

          for Rudd to push the election back a bit.

          Labor resources are all in formerly seats that they were attempting to sandbag against the coalition tidal wave. Now these seats are regarded as safe again it will take time to reallocate resources to marginal seats and prospective targets.

          Honeymoon bounces tend to evaporate too quickly to be harnessed in an actual election and as you say the Liberals aren't going to be caught napping like they were in 2010 (in NSW).

          I'm guessing an October election.

  •  Got a challenge for the mapmakers (0+ / 0-)

    Gerrymander/create a map where Utah could conceivably get two Congressional Democrats. One of the gerrymandered districts can have Matheson (so you can add in as much as an advantage as you think he'd get), but it has to be plausible (for a gerrymander) otherwise.

    If that's too easy, get a two Dem gerrymander without Matheson.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Jun 29, 2013 at 11:00:02 PM PDT

    •  there already are a few maps out (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      “Democrats legislate; Republicans investigate.” ~ Lyndon Johnson

      by lordpet8 on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 01:58:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I got one (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      It doesn't use touch point, and Matheson gets a better district than he did in the cleaner map.

       photo utscrew.jpg

      1: competitive district, Obama 52-45 in 2008.
      2: sink, McCain 74-23
      3: sink, McCain 77-20
      4: Matheson, McCain 54-43

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 03:25:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here's one I drew a while back that's very clean (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, sacman701

      and effective in getting us Matheson secured and a liberal SLC Dem.

       photo UTDem2-2overview_zpsda6fe3dc.jpg
       photo UTDem2-2SLC_zps00f80a85.jpg

      The Matheson district is about the same partisan wise as his old and current one but has a lot more of his old territory. Romney obviously won the 4th, but it can easily support a mainstream Dem.
       photo UTDem2-2Data_zps6f2044cd.png

      •  Excellent, all of them (0+ / 0-)

        I didn't realize it was that easy to draw a 2-2 map. Thanks!

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 08:39:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, 1-2-Matheson, more like (0+ / 0-)

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 08:53:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, but I've finally accepted (0+ / 0-)

            That he counts as a Democrat. Still not good enough, and I won't vote for him, but he can stay as long as he runs for statewide office later on and drag other Dem candidates up by his coattails.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 09:26:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do you live in his congressional district? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              Because if so, your not voting for him may help cause his eventual electoral demise - something that I might add is remarkably selfish in light of his very needed vote for a Democratic speaker.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 09:31:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

                like him or not, he could be a lot worse for a Democrat in this red a district.

                "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 09:45:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  He won't vote for a Democratic speaker (0+ / 0-)

                and hasn't in the last two elections. And my problem is less that he won't vote for Democratic priorities (I realize that he's never going to do that), but more that he won't offer up any alternative (even if it's "more conservative Third Way/DLC"-esque crap) position. Yes, I get that he votes with Democrats slightly over half the time, but I'm willing to bet that is mostly on useless legislation. He should at least offer something different from Dems AND the GOP if he's a centrist Democrat. Also, of other times he's been in a new district, he does several percentage points better the second time around. So I'm not so worried about him losing.

                And I think he'd be better as a Gubernatorial candidate, or even as state party chair anyway. I'm not opposed to him personally, just opposed to his attitude and performance in Congress. If he ran for Governor, I would be the first to donate to his campaign.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 09:50:19 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You're kidding right? (0+ / 0-)

                  If there were a bare majority, Matheson would almost certainly vote for a Democratic speaker.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 09:52:41 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't want to go down this line of conversation (0+ / 0-)

                    again, since I've hashed and rehashed it repeatedly. I've stated my views on Matheson, and there's always this line of conversation which never goes anywhere. Like the Schatz vs Hanabusa dealio, I don't think it should repeat itself. In fact wwmiv, I think I've debated with you specifically on Matheson. So I don't want to rehash the debate we've already had. I'll stand by my views, and everyone else can stand by theirs.

                    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                    by Gygaxian on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 10:14:23 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Hold your nose and vote (0+ / 0-)

                      it's a simple routine.    I hope you decide to.  he needs all the votes he can get every election.

                      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

                      by KingofSpades on Mon Jul 01, 2013 at 05:51:39 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  No, I meant (0+ / 0-)

              1 Dem-tilting district, 2 safe GOP seats, and one district that only Matheson can win and hold.

              "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 09:46:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  surprised no one seemed to have mentioned (6+ / 0-)

    that Eric Garcetti was sworn in as LA mayor on Friday.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 01:36:09 AM PDT

    •  One of Villaraigosa's last acts as mayor (8+ / 0-)

      Was to marry Paul Katami and Jeff Zarillo, co-plaintiffs in the Prop 8 case.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 03:52:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  because it didn't happen yet (0+ / 0-)

         The public version of the inauguration is tonight at 6PM on the City Hall steps (Spring St side). Mike Feuer and Ron Galperin (our excellent new City Attorney and Controller) will also be sworn in. I think CA AG Kamala Harris is doing the honors for Mike Feuer and CA Controller John Chiang is going to swear in Galperin.

           After the ceremonies there will be a party in the new Grand Park nearby with Jimmy Kimmel as MC and Moby and others providing music. In a typical modern L.A. touch there will be various food trucks providing refreshments. I hope there is free and plentiful water because it will be brutally hot today.

           The actual terms of office begin tomorrow; July 1 is always the start date for new terms in Los Angeles. I think Garcetti will be officially sworn in at midnight.

           The inauguration and party are free; to get there take the Red Line subway to the Civic Center station and walk a block or two east to the site. I'll be there...

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:42:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP: Democrats lead NC-Leg ballot by 7 points (7+ / 0-)

    This poll was actually released about two weeks ago but I just discovered it.  The NC legislature is heavily gerrymandered, to the point that it seems impossible for Democrats to win a majority this decade.  

    But we actually have data on how a seven point Democratic win would affect the state Senate; look at the 2012 Sec. of State race, which Elaine Marshall won 53.8-46.2.  By my estimation, she won five seats that are currently Republican-held.  There are three more seats that could be in play with a nine or ten point win on the generic ballot, and two seats that are very Republican statewide and federally but could be competitive anyway.

    Still, nine seats (a majority) would be almost impossible win, but these numbers from PPP give me hope that we could at least break the GOP's veto-proof majority.

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (6+ / 0-)

    Issue 1- President Obama's Energy Plan- Kentucky is the 3rd leading coal producer in the nation, and his plan is likely that there will be no new coal fired power plants, and some coal plants may switch over to natural gas. Nearly all of Kentucky's coal is for power plants. There is hope that exports will help coal here. Less coal will also mean less coal severance tax money.

    Senate Race- The panel seems to think that Alison Grimes can use this as a chance to distance herself from President Obama, but McConnell will want to hang it around her neck. They also note that there are anti-Grimes and anti-McConnell ads up across the state. Ryan Alessi calls her the "LeBron James of Kentucky politics" given her making everyone wait so long for a decision. Al Cross noted she staked out an immigration position, telling a local reporter that she hoped that the senior Senator would not attempt to block the bi-partisan reform plan. Cross thinks that she would not have brought that up if she was not planning to run. They then note that she has given only a very limited number of interviews locally, and the same is for McConnell.

    Special House Election- Democrat James Kay easily won HD-56 despite not being the best candidate. Cross says Dems did a great job getting out their vote. Alessi says Gov. Beshear deserves credit for putting together a good organization at the state party, and not filling it with relatives or buddies. Ferrell Wellman thinks that there is some momentum for next year. Republicans still trying to blame outside GOP money.

    Private Prisons- Kentucky has decided not to renew a contract with CCA. Now all prisoners in Kentucky will be in a public facility. However, this will mean a loss of 160 jobs in Marion County. Kentucky reformed some drug laws in 2011 to try to reduce prison population to focus more on treatment which has reduced costs.

    Redistricting- The legislature convenes August 19. The Senate is getting a plan together. The House has already passed a map, but the Senate is playing a game of chicken to see if the House still goes forward with pairing 11 GOP incumbents to see how many Dem incumbents they will imperil. A federal court in Northern Kentucky has told lawmakers they need to pass a map very soon or they would do it for them. Al Cross thinks the game of chicken by the Senate is to try to keep Dems from drawing a very favorable map so that the GOP can take the House next year. Ryan Alessi also notes that several of the open seats created by the pairing of incumbents are very winnable by the GOP.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:23:34 AM PDT

    •  Shades of Virginia in redistricting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Except, theoretically anyway, the roles are a bit reversed. Republicans have a history of playing better hardball in that area, as we all know, but I am not sure that extends to Kentucky.

      Can we expect the outcome in HD-56 (I love how far into the weeds we can get here) to influence the negotiations meaningfully?

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:29:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It gives Dems fresh zeal (0+ / 0-)

        if Kay lost, they would be weakened in their position.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:37:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt it (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, andgarden, James Allen

        Republicans might have tried to play hardball a little more had they won. And Dems are in such a minority in the Senate that I don't think the House Dems will bat an eye if they decide to pair several Dem Senators. And the even/odd configuration of seats make it difficult to mess with too many Dem Senators. Also, there were several new GOP Senators elected in 2012 were in seats that were going to have severe changes that now will want a safe seat for themselves. Some of what they are talking about might be putting some GOP House members that lose their seats a chance to run for the Senate.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:38:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Like drawing Caesare into a Senate district (0+ / 0-)

          while they draw Mike Wilson into a SD that drops Butler and a trail of outer Warren County (making Wilson's district rewinnable).

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:53:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That's good on them (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Gygaxian, gabjoh, skibum59

      private prisons are a blight on our criminal justice system.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:36:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  On redistricting (0+ / 0-)

      I read the articles.  The court says they are giving preference to a leg-drawn map (so long as it's constitutional) and will act if the legislature does not act by late September and their ruling is just to put pressure on them to get it done in August like they said.  Dems will count fed prisoner pop. (8K of people) and that will require tweaks (I think they have a map that counts prisoners already, but they have not revealed it yet).  I hope they consider making Tilley's seat bluer than its low-40% Obama level.  The new HD-01 looks sharp enough for Dems to win (another reason for Grimes to run, to help us pick up open seats).  I also hope they fine-cut Gerald Watkins' district to be as blue as possible (though he did win decisively in 2012, but his opponent had almost no funds raised and had to pay out of pocket).  What will they do with Rep. Arnold's seat?  And what about the Republicans who only narrowly won in 2012 in the Lexington area?  Do Dems plan to mess with their districts?  Also, can Lewis County be sufficiently diluted in with a bunch of Dem counties to rid Jill York?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:45:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Western KY map (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        was drawn by Rep. Jody Richards (D-Bowling Green). Arnold's seat was changed very little. He was burdened with intra party problems that sunk his number so low. Lewis County was given to Rep. Mike Denham (D-Maysville) to get rid of Jill York (R-Grayson). Denham doesn't like it. She has to run against Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook). She is gone under this map. There is a new seat in Lexington that leans slightly Republican. Stan Lee (R-Lexington) retains a solid seat. The other GOP seat runs far to the south now to retain his home in Lexington. The new seat along the Mississippi River is interesting in that Dems could win it. Kelly Whitaker may try again. She drew 45% in the old 2nd, where Obama only received 27%. Gerald Watkins (D-Paducah) was given as many Dems as McCracken County can provide. Tilley's seat could be drawn better, but Dems may be trying to keep a chance to win the other seat there.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 07:38:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But what about some other potential Dem wins (0+ / 0-)

          like in the HDs of Mike Harmon, Ryan Quarles, Donna Mayfield, Robert Benvenuti (HD-88, Fayette County), the unsightly Gary Herald, and Linda Belcher's former seat (I compiled this list from Ballotpedia).

          "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 08:52:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Question: Does Kentucky have anthracite? (0+ / 0-)

      or is that just PA that has it?

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:45:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just checked (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, gabjoh

        only bituminous coal.  Anthracite is only mineable in NE PA and the southern rim of WV.

        "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 04:45:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sorry for all the comments, but one more (0+ / 0-)

      I was amused by that CN2 article about how the GOP chair partially blamed the RSLC PAC for Crews' loss.  From what I've read, it was implied that McConnell helped steer that money to this race.

      "Didn't anyone ever tell you? There's one thing you never put in a trap—if you're smart, if you value your continued existence, if you have any plans about seeing tomorrow—there's one thing you never—ever, put in a trap. …Me." -The Eleventh Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:46:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt Grimes' statement on immigration... (0+ / 0-)

      ...says anything about whether she'll run.  It just means she has an opinion and is willing to share, which is ordinary and unremarkable for any politician.

      By the way, thanks for these regular updates, they are great.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 06:03:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  For someone who's being rather tight lipped (0+ / 0-)

        and controlled it means something.

        •  According to the panel (4+ / 0-)

          she had a very well-prepared scripted answer. That is a sign she is seriously thinking about it. They also noted that she would want to get in at the beginning of a financial reporting period rather than the end so that her first FEC report looks good. They also noted that there have been SuperPAC responses to the ads by the McConnell SuperPAC against her as a "Down Payment" on promises from DC. That appears to be her biggest thing right now- getting solid guarantees that she will have all the support she needs on the airwaves.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 07:45:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Oregon Political Geography 201: Acres Don't Vote (5+ / 0-)

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 11:52:11 AM PDT

  •  NY Times: GOP paints Clinton as old news in 2016 (9+ / 0-)

    "She's old" seems to be shaping up as one of the main GOP criticisms of Hillary Clinton, if she runs in 2016.

    Tim Miller, a GOP strategist, said on twitter the article is being misinterpreted, with people conflating "old aged" with "out of date."

    Fair enough, if the GOP wants to make the case that Clinton's ideas are out of date, that's certainly valid.

    But can they do that? It seems like on most issues, her stances are more in touch with younger voters than her potential 40 year old GOP opponents. And that's the main problem here.

    The GOP actually provides us with a good example that age doesnt matter, for the most part. Reagan, despite being the oldest president ever elected, did well with younger voters because he was seen as someone who had a forward looking vision. That's the same reason that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama beat their older opponents. So the issues are still important and will still be a hurdle for the GOP in gaining younger voters.

  •  Ugh, I had a terrible nightmare (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden, jj32, lordpet8

    that I was looking at 2012 election results in Michigan and they had passed a gay marriage ban by a similar margin to 2004 and I was like "I knew it, those polls showing majority support were wrong."

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sun Jun 30, 2013 at 03:57:18 PM PDT

  •  Good, surprisingly sympathetic profile.. (9+ / 0-)

    Of Gov. Martin O'Malley in the National Journal. Some of you may have seen it already, but I hadn't noticed it posted here. Story here.

    Clinton, 65, has frozen the field as she ponders her 2016 options. Awaiting her decision, halfway out of the wings, is a new generation of contenders topped by O’Malley, 50, and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 55. Though he is not (yet) writing a book, O’Malley has taken many preparatory steps toward running and hasn’t been coy about acknowledging his interest. He says the impact of a race on his family, “along with more important factors, like what’s best for the country, are things that I’ll be weighing” in the months ahead.

    Whether O’Malley has the charisma and fundraising prowess to make a serious bid is unclear at this point. He does have some noteworthy assets. Maryland is at the top of numerous lists rating metrics such as education and innovation. O’Malley has been on many lists of rising stars over the past decade. In 2009, Governing magazine cited his data-based management style in naming him a public official of the year. This year, in its May/June issue, Washington Monthly called him “arguably the best manager in government today.”

    The profile also touches on his role in last year's presidential campaign and his relationship with Sen. Tim Kaine and other Democrats. Pretty interesting stuff, and I think it presents a potent argument for O'Malley in 2016 or beyond.

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