Recently I published a diary where I made reference to a RAND report titled "Unfolding the Future of the Long War." The report was mentioned in a op-ed by Nafeez Ahmed for The Guardian, where he argues that the Syrian intervention is fueled by oil, instead of chemical weapons concerns.
The interesting thing about the (candid) report is how it describes our efforts there as "long war," which some argue it coincides with long-term aspirations of the neo-cons.
"The geographic area of proven oil reserves coincides with the power base of much of the Salafi-jihadist network. This creates a linkage between oil supplies and the long war that is not easily broken or simply characterized... For the foreseeable future, world oil production growth and total output will be dominated by Persian Gulf resources... The region will therefore remain a strategic priority, and this priority will interact strongly with that of prosecuting the long war."
~snip~
"Divide and Rule focuses on exploiting fault lines between the various Salafi-jihadist groups to turn them against each other and dissipate their energy on internal conflicts. This strategy relies heavily on covert action, information operations (IO), unconventional warfare, and support to indigenous security forces... the United States and its local allies could use the nationalist jihadists to launch proxy IO campaigns to discredit the transnational jihadists in the eyes of the local populace... US leaders could also choose to capitalize on the 'Sustained Shia-Sunni Conflict' trajectory by taking the side of the conservative Sunni regimes against Shiite empowerment movements in the Muslim world.... possibly supporting authoritative Sunni governments against a continuingly hostile Iran."
I find that advice about launching proxy "information operations" campaigns interesting, in light of our involvement in Syria when it comes to fueling the insurrection against Assad.
On June 14, 2013 USA Today published an article titled "Syrian rebels pledge loyalty to al-Qaeda."
A Syrian rebel group's April pledge of allegiance to al-Qaeda's replacement for Osama bin Laden suggests that the terrorist group's influence is not waning and that it may take a greater role in the Western-backed fight to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The emphasis is mine
Although the Obama administration has designated al-Qaeda-linked organizations (i.e., al Nusra) as "terrorist groups," and has pledged not to support them, the Syrian rebels don't quite see it that way.
Tamer Mouhieddine, spokesman for the Syrian Free Army, a force made up of Syrian soldiers who have defected, said the recent announcements would not change his group's attitude toward al Nusra.
"The rebels in Syria have one common enemy — Bashar Assad — and they will collaborate with any faction allowing them to topple his regime," he said.
In the meantime, the CIA has been lending support to the Syrian rebels for quite some time,
as reported by
The Los Angeles Times (June 21, 2013):
White House officials refused to comment Friday on a Los Angeles Times report that CIA operatives and U.S. special operations troops have been secretly training Syrian rebels with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons since late last year, saying only that the U.S. had increased its assistance to the rebellion.
The covert U.S. training at bases in Jordan and Turkey began months before President Obama approved plans to begin directly arming the opposition to Syrian President Bashar Assad, according to U.S. officials and rebel commanders.
“We have stepped up our assistance, but I cannot inventory for you all the elements of that assistance,” White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said. “We have provided and will continue to provide substantial assistance to the Syrian opposition, as well as the Supreme Military Council.”
Also,
The New York Times reported (on March 24, 2013) that the CIA had sharply increased military aid to Syria's opposition fighters:
With help from the C.I.A., Arab governments and Turkey have sharply increased their military aid to Syria’s opposition fighters in recent months, expanding a secret airlift of arms and equipment for the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, according to air traffic data, interviews with officials in several countries and the accounts of rebel commanders.
The airlift, which began on a small scale in early 2012 and continued intermittently through last fall, expanded into a steady and much heavier flow late last year, the data shows. It has grown to include more than 160 military cargo flights by Jordanian, Saudi and Qatari military-style cargo planes landing at Esenboga Airport near Ankara, and, to a lesser degree, at other Turkish and Jordanian airports.
So given all this information, it looks like what's been happening has the elements of a proxy war in which the U.S. and other countries in the region have been fueling the insurrection against Assad with training, armaments, and funds. And it is very likely that some of those goodies are being shared with al-Qaeda groups in Syria.
Despite this massive foreign intervention trying to unseat Assad, recently it had been reported that he was starting the get the upper hand against the rebels.
Is it possible that the push by the Obama administration to launch a war of aggression against Syria is just an escalation from proxy to real war since the efforts to topple Assad had failed thus far?
Or are we going to launch missiles in order to save babies and innocent civilians?
What do readers think?
P.S. I welcome spirited debate about this topic, and I'm especially interested in hearing from people who do not agree with my position. However, I will not engage in discussion with people who write personal insults, or engage in disruptive behavior. I ask other serious people to do the same. To learn more about this subject, please visit the following links: New Community Guidelines / The 15 Rules of Web Disruption / Thirteen Rules for Truth Suppression / Disinformation: How It Works.
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