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Could I really be delusional? I have prided myself in being a fairly good predictor of elections and predicting the direction the country is moving in (zigzagging) for years. After I wrote the DailyKOS diary “America Is A Liberal Nation. A Liberal Wins On A Liberal Message” about Bill de Blasio running a decidedly Liberal campaign in the New York Mayoral Race, I was humbled by some of the comments on DailyKOS

Good for De Blasio and NYC.
But the fact that there was a liberal outcome to a Democratic primary in New York City does not tell us that overall we are a liberal nation. Wish that were true, but come on.
by doc2 on Wed Sep 11, 2013 at 05:01:00 PM CDT

Liberals don't win a lot of national
elections.  
We might wish they would, but they don't.  When Democrats nominate liberals, voters nationally tend to defeat them.  Bill Clinton won two terms but a good sampling of liberal Democrats did not prevail in the primaries against him to win nomination.  Same with Jimmy Carter.  And Carter's landslide defeat by Ronald Reagan speaks for itself.  I'm delighted by De Blasio's first place finish Tuesday night but don't see it as evidence that the nation as a whole is nearly as progressive as we wish it to be.
by Remediator on Thu Sep 12, 2013 at 07:07:31 AM CDT

Then someone on my personal blog wrote:

T Purrnell says: September 12, 2013 at 11:02 PM
Maybe it’s not so much that America is a “Liberal” Nation as it is that the extreme right has managed to get their extreme agenda into the Republican spotlight often enough (through the new media access of the internet) to make moderates look liberal. I would like to think that America is a Liberal Nation, but I think that’s just one way of looking at the situation.

A list that picked up the RSS feed sent out the message in their email.

America Is A Liberal Nation. A Liberal Wins On A Liberal Message.
This is NYC, after all.  Is the author wearing rose colored spectacles?

Are Liberals so down on themselves that they cannot see the spark looking for the kindling? Come on my brethren. You must be the kindling.

I am in Texas, a state whose base is Liberal but votes deep Conservative for very structural reasons. I have seen a beautiful petite baby boomer, State Senator Wendy Davis, light a spark in Texas that lit the kindling that is now waiting for the twigs. I have seen Battleground Texas enter Texas reaching people with little difficulty so much so that Republicans express their fear overtly.

But my potential personal vindication came in an article today by Peter Beinart in The Daily Beast titled “The Rise of the New New Left.” It’s a rather long article but the analysis in the article is spot on. Three paragraphs rang out.

The argument between the children of Reagan and the children of Clinton is fierce, but ideologically, it tilts toward the right. Even after the financial crisis, the Clinton Democrats who lead their party don’t want to nationalize the banks, institute a single-payer health-care system, raise the top tax rate back to its pre-Reagan high, stop negotiating free-trade deals, launch a war on poverty, or appoint labor leaders rather than Wall Streeters to top economic posts. They want to regulate capitalism modestly. Their Reaganite Republican adversaries, by contrast, want to deregulate it radically. By pre-Reagan standards, the economic debate is taking place on the conservative side of the field. But—and this is the key point--there’s reason to believe that America’s next political generation will challenge those limits in ways that cause the leaders of both parties fits.

America’s youngest adults are called “Millennials” because the 21st century was dawning as they entered their plastic years. Coming of age in the 21st century is of no inherent political significance. But this calendric shift has coincided with a genuine historical disruption. Compared to their Reagan-Clinton generation elders, Millennials are entering adulthood in an America where government provides much less economic security. And their economic experience in this newly deregulated America has been horrendous. This experience has not produced a common generational outlook. No such thing ever exists. But it is producing a distinct intragenerational argument, one that does not respect the ideological boundaries to which Americans have become accustomed. The Millennials are unlikely to play out their political conflicts between the yard lines Reagan and Clinton set out.

If Millennials remain on the left, the consequences for American politics over the next two decades could be profound. In the 2008 presidential election, Millennials constituted one-fifth of America’s voters. In 2012, they were one-quarter. In 2016, according to predictions by political demographer Ruy Teixeira, they will be one-third. And they will go on constituting between one-third and two-fifths of America’s voters through at least 2028.

A broke retiring baby boom generation will demand more from the state. Much of that funding will eventually come from those that have been pilfering the working middle class for decades. If Liberals personalize the narrative as de Blasio did for their respective geographies I am sure they will win.



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Comment Preferences

  •  Unfortunately for the Boomers (8+ / 0-)

    They might require more support from the state, but they spent the last 40 years voting to dismantle it. Yields will be limited. The ultimate irony is that the generation that screamed to their kids to work harder because "Social Security won't be there for you" as they worked to take it away ... are going to find the larder run out on them first.

    "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

    by bink on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 05:12:16 AM PDT

    •  Speaking of Baby Boomers, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mikejay611, bink, rexxnyc

      I read this one over several times:

      They might require more support from the state, but they spent the last 40 years voting to dismantle it.
      You are going against a beloved narrative: "most" Boomers were liberal, smoked pot, marched in demonstrations, protested the Vietnam war.

      Uh, no. This was strictly a minority of Boomers. MOST Boomers, when they voted, voted for Reagan and Bush.

      It's here they got the range/ and the machinery for change/ and it's here they got the spiritual thirst. --Leonard Cohen

      by karmsy on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 06:36:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  you are correct, amigo. (7+ / 0-)

    I  was born and lived in NYC most of my life, now living upstate because we're retired and CAN AFFORD to live up here, as opposed to trying to live in the financial trap that NYC has become.
    Bill de B  will win because most New Yorkers do not live in Manhattan or Brooklyn Heights and they are tired of carrying the weight for the 1%.  

    It is also about the fact that NYC is a city where 175 languages are spoken and a subway ride is a trip around the world.  

    The corporate media will attempt to scare the voters for the obvious reasons, but we will win this one.

    Thank you for posting this.

    ecstatically baffled

    by el vasco on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 05:21:45 AM PDT

  •  I don't see a fairly "liberal" (8+ / 0-)

    city's mayoral race as a bellweather for the rest of us. Sorry. I just don't.

    Dawkins is to atheism as Rand is to personal responsibility- mperiousRex.

    by terrypinder on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 05:26:54 AM PDT

  •  De Blasio blue is not exactly the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bronx59

    same shade as Clinton blue.  Beinart's piece gives Reagan the vast red on recent national election maps, but gives Clinton the blue.  

    Democratic presidential primary winners for some many cycles now are of a lighter blue shade than the deeper blue of their primary rivals.  Gore over Bradley is one example.  Bradley did not prevail in part because he was asking for votes in states decidedly less liberal than the voters who chose De Blasio on Tuesday.

    We can and should be happy with De Blasio's big win this week, but I agree with terrypinder above that the national model is a different kettle of fish.

  •  America is neither (4+ / 0-)

    We're a complex mishmash of liberal and conservative and talk of realignments one way or another has been that for a long time.

    We've become far more socially libertarian in some ways and that trend will probably continue.  But we are far more authoritarian in others.

    But in terms of capitalism/socialism , we are going to be fighting on the side of the Eisenhower Republicans against the Reagan Republicans (at best) for decades to come.

  •  Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. (4+ / 0-)

    De Blasio won a Democratic primary as the most liberal viable candidate, in a city where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 6 to 1. So why have we had Republican mayors for the last 20 years?

    Many registered Democrats here rarely vote as Democrats in general elections. They are registered D so they can vote in the primary, which in local races is often the de facto general election. Though their numbers are dwindling as the demographic of the city changes, they will vote for Lhota, as they did for Bloomberg and Giuliani before him.

    I do think De Blasio will win the general election, though. New Yorkers are very sick of Bloomberg, both style and substance.

    But the day after Election Day, the job of liberal New Yorkers will be to hold him to his promises. I know him somewhat; he lives right around the corner from me, was my Councilmember, and is a frequent visitor to my Democratic Club. De Blasio is an expert equivocator. This is true especially w/r/t development issues, which are the real crux of power in a city run by its real-estate industry. We will need to watch him carefully and hold his feet to the fire, if we want more from him than photos of his beautiful family.

    To that end, I urge all New Yorkers to come out on Oct. 1 and vote for Letitia "Tish" James in the runoff for Public Advocate. It is the Public Advocate's job to hold the rest of the city government (especially including the mayor) accountable to the people, and James is perfectly suited to the task. While she and De Blasio look very similar in their positions on paper, she actually walks the walk.

    You can learn more about her here, here, and here.

    "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

    by sidnora on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 05:49:37 AM PDT

    •  WSJ has an article that de Blasio (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sidnora, rexxnyc

      will not differ significantly from Bloomberg when it comes to development.  I was chatting with someone after I voted on Tuesday and a neighbor came out of the booth and said she had voted for de Blasio. We walked out together and she was talking about the large scale Lightstone project and where would all those children go to school and what about traffic. I said she could thank de Blasio for getting that spot rezoning through and that he had been vocally opposed to the Gowanus Canal superfund. Then she whined about how come no one tells her this stuff.

      Yeah, I know a few Lhota voters but they were always going to be Lhota voters. They are old timers and also view it as voting against a certain funeral home owner.

      •  that's good for NY (0+ / 0-)

        Rent is so high because there's a scarcity of housing, and there's a scarcity of housing in part because of the ridiculous zoning that had forced many areas into non-residential purposes (see, eg, the Williamsburg waterfront)

        •  Originally the plan was for luxury condos (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sidnora

          but because no bank will provide mortgages to properties on a superfund site that project is not financially viable. Hey, if people want to live next to a contaminated body of water that will always have CSO events so be it.

        •  No, rent is so high (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rexxnyc

          because there's a scarcity of affordable housing. In the meantime, parts of Manhattan resemble ghost towns, where multimillion-dollar condos owned by wealthy foreigners sit empty.

          "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

          by sidnora on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 06:58:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  LOL re (0+ / 0-)

        the funeral home owner - talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face!

        Re your uninformed neighbor: I tend to cut people a bit of slack. You know how time-consuming and exhausting it can be to keep track of all this stuff. I work two jobs, which must be why I've never heard of the Lightstone project. Is it in your neighborhood?
         The big development issue that's starting to percolate in my immediate area is the proposed Methodist Hospital expansion onto 8th Avenue between 5th & 6th. I have friends who live across the street from the site, and they've told me there's already a neighborhood committee in formation. Should be some interesting Community Board meetings on the way.

        "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

        by sidnora on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 06:55:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I just did my googling homework (0+ / 0-)

        and now realize this is the former Toll Brothers project, with which I was familiar. But I didn't even realize that Toll Brothers had pulled out.

        "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

        by sidnora on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 07:02:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes. As soon as the canal was superfunded Toll (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sidnora

          pulled out.  De Blasio aligned himself with Bloomberg and Cas Holloway and opposed the superfund (Yvette Clarke was studying the science LOL and never did take a position).  De Blasio jumped through hoops to try to save the deal.

          Now we have Lightstone.  It will be over 700 rental apartments and I think 30% will be affordable and those will be administered by... wait for it.... the Fifth Avenue Committee.

          •  Oy. (0+ / 0-)

            "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

            by sidnora on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 07:56:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oy is right (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sidnora

              The CB6 land use committee voted to disapprove Lighstone's "minor modification" but the general board voted to approve after several convoluted re-wordings of the motion. I'm not sure people fully understood what they were voting on.

              Lightstone did meet with some members of the Gowanus Canal Community Advisory Group and were asked if the community facility could be used for a pre-school and Lightstone responded that it wasn't safe.

    •  Sidnora (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sidnora

      Why do you think Bloomberg is refusing to make an endorsement. I read that he was going to endorse Lhota, but today he said that he wll not endorse anyone.

      •  Interesting question, and (0+ / 0-)

        I don't know the answer. I can only speculate. Either his threat to endorse Lhota if De Blasio won the primary was a bluff and he now realizes people don't care what he says any more, or he realized that his endorsement might hurt Lhota more than help him. Neither of those is likely for someone with his bulletproof ego.

        I don't for a second believe his "I just want to provide a smooth transition" BS.

        "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

        by sidnora on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 08:42:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Not liberal, YET (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, dickensgirl

    Hate to break it to you bro but we're nowhere near where we would like it to be.  On the political spectrum we're right of center and far to the right of even many right leaning countries in Europe for example.  

    HOWEVER, our country seems to go through these cycles of 80 years or so.  The first half of that cycle is more progressive, the latter half is more conservative.  The conservative half is running its course and we're now embarking on the beginning of a new cycle.  80 years ago the New Deal was only now being implemented.  40 years ago Nixon had just won using his Southern Strategy.  

    Because we live in the daily gyrations, which are further exacerbated by 24/7 news, we tend to miss the big picture.  The big picture is that we're only now entering what may well be a progressive cycle.  Demographics are changing very dramatically away from the GOP and their policies or lack of coherent policies are dooming them.  Their ideology has been exposed for the abject failure that it is and even once die hard republicans are turning away.

    The Millenials will suffer much like the generations of the 20's and 30's did.  We may even have an ideological war in our not too distant future much as we did in the 1930's-1940's in the 1850's-1860's and in the 1770's-1780's.  But one thing is certain, this generation is the key and they are more culturally diverse, more socially tolerant and more plugged in than any other generation preceding it.  They're going to be the drivers of change and with the baby boomers losing their hold on power due to advancing age and declining numbers that shift will be dramatic and long lasting.  

    We may not be a liberal nation today, but by the time this 40 year progressive cycle has run its course its very likely we will be.  The fact is taken individually, liberal policies are far more popular than conservative ones and far more effective.  The problem is that the left has been demonized for so long that when people consider the policies as a package they have a gut instinct to reject them outright, despite the fact that those policies will benefit them in the long run.  That's changing.  The proof is in the pudding and when people see Obamacare in action, despite the fact that it is nowhere near the liberal ideal, they will soundly reject the GOP nihilism.  When that happens the political spectrum will shift left which will allow the Dems and the left to push more liberal policies like paid sick leave, single payer and so on.  Once those policies are also implemented they too will awaken the masses to the lies of the right and the corporate owned media.  It's inevitable.  It's far easier to tell the truth than it is to keep lying to the people and try to remember the lies you told them.  

    Of course the Left will overreach at some point, as the right recently has and continues to do. But if history is any indication, it won't be for a long while.  

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 06:09:48 AM PDT

  •  Maybe we should just (0+ / 0-)

    start being like the hard right and claiming that our candidates didn't win because they weren't liberal enough.

    John Kerry was a DINO!  Al Gore was a DINO!  Michael Dukakis was a DINO!

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 06:22:50 AM PDT

  •  Would I love it if people in John Boehner's (0+ / 0-)

    southwestern Ohio voting district voted the same way Democratic primary voters supporting De Blasio voted on Tuesday?

    Yes.

    Do I believe in the wake of De Blasio's first-place finish that this will happen?

    No.

  •  Beautiful and Petite? (0+ / 0-)

    That's how you choose to describe Wendy Davis? That plus your previous push to convince us that Mayor Weiner would be good for America makes me question your wisdom.

    •  I use the term because (0+ / 0-)

      here in Texas one would not expect her to be the catalyst of a Progressive resurrection. If it were an out of scope man I would have described in a congruent manner.

      I never want ill advised words to take away from the point I am trying to make. Before I remove that description of Wendy Davis whose politics and run I support financially, I want to ask women who read this blog if they consider my statement offensive. If so I will remove.

      Sir, with regards to my article on 'Mayor Weiner', I think you missed the point if you thought I 'really' wanted him as mayor. The piece was a critique of the media.

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