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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 04:47:29 PM PDT

  •  MT-Sen (8+ / 0-)

    Feeling real good about this one now that John Walsh is in, his solid military "servant of the people" background will help him greatly in a state like Montana. Also helps that Steve Daines can (and will) be tarred and feathered over the shutdown if he tries to move up.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 04:54:52 PM PDT

  •  Fundraising numbers of ALG... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm hoping for $3M, settle for $2M I guess.  Anything less would be concerning.

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 04:55:12 PM PDT

  •  PA-GOV, PA-13, NJ-SEN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, slowbutsure

    You want video?  Sure. Every bad thing that ever happened to Jesse Pinkman, scored to R.E.M.'s "Everybody Hurts":

  •  I've got a fever, and the only prescription is (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, JDJase

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 04:59:13 PM PDT

  •  Chris Christie cares more about the (7+ / 0-)

    damn beach and opening a boardwalk than fixing Trenton Central.

  •  Here's a trivia question for you (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slowbutsure

    When was the last time that a candidate of each major party in a contested race carried every single county (or town in New England) in a state? Some are pretty easy to figure out; for instance in North Dakota senator John Hoeven carried every county in 2010 while former senator Kent Conrad carried every county in 2006.

    But states such as my own of North Carolina aren't so obvious; My guess for a Republican was Nixon 1972 when he was winning by about 40 points, but McGovern carried Orange home to Chapel Hill (University of North Carolina) and Northampton which is majority black. Given how Republicans have never really had a win even close to that wide in the state they probably have never swept all 100 counties.

  •  I honestly feel like I'm getting less interested (9+ / 0-)

    in politics. Maybe its because I'm really focused on school, maybe its because its the odd year doldrums, I don't know.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:04:50 PM PDT

    •  I'm not minding the doldrums too much (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      highacidity, James Allen, LordMike

      I love election season, but it stresses me out. I found myself frequently worrying about elections last November -- it's worse in a presidential year, I think -- and it definitely affected my relationships with other people, not because I got into many arguments about it, but because I was just so worked up about it all the time.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:44:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I feel you. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Zack from the SFV

      This stuff wears on you after a while. For me at least, the past few weeks have felt particularly frustrating.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:22:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm like that after a big loss (0+ / 0-)

      I felt that way after 2004 and 2010.

      But not for too long after 2010, since we had Obama preparing for reelection.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:18:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Open thread question time! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    If you could unilaterally make one constitutional amendment, what would it be?

    There can be more than one section, but they need to be reasonably germane to eachother.

    For me, it would probably be reorganization of the House into an organization that was elected under a mixed member proportional system. Although right now, an amendment that banned debt ceilings and provided for an automatic CR at current funding levels if congress failed to pass a spending bill seems pretty swell.

    Other things high on my list:
    1. ERA
    2. An affirmative right of every citizen to vote.
    3. An amendment guaranteeing the right to government funded medical care.

    •  How about one that allows a 60% vote (0+ / 0-)

      vote from the registered voting public to substitute for 3/4ths of the states for future amendments. Hello citizens united repeal!

      •  I'm somewhat wary of that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        psychicpanda, MichaelNY

        I don't think you could get 2/3rds in congress for citizens united repeal, and I'd want the 60% thing to be accompanied by mandatory voting and automatic voter registration, so that it would actually be EVERYBODY.

      •  I don't really trust direct democracy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I know there are A LOT of problems with representative democracy, but I don't know if direct democracy would be any better.  It hasn't worked out so well in California (sure, there have been some good votes, but there have also been a lot of instances of the voters screwing the state and themselves.  And we've seen that voters can be easily swayed by special interests, too.)

    •  one that creates a parliamentary system of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      government with proportional representation. National popular vote for control of one house of Congress and that's it.

    •  An end to gerrymandering (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      highacidity, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      A five-member independent redistricting commission must be appointed for each state by its U.S. circuit court, with the assent of the state's governor and secretary of state (lieutenant governor in Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah, where the position of chief elections administrator is vested in that office), in every year ending with 1.

      Commissioners cannot have been a registered lobbyist or held elected office or a position within a political organization within 25 years prior to their appointment, and they must be residents of the state in question.

      The commission will hold six hearings around the state and accept written testimony, then publish a draft map, allow a public comment period, and publish a final map by the end of the year. The map may be subject to expedited appeal in federal court.

      Districts should keep communities of interest in mind and be contiguous in terms of surface transportation links (non-seasonal public road, regularly scheduled passenger rail, and/or regularly scheduled passenger ferry). Not sure whether I would want commissioners to be instructed to draw politically competitive districts or ignore political data altogether, but the latter would probably be the most legally sound.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:02:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Term limits (0+ / 0-)

      5, 2 year terms for the House, for life.

      2, 6 year terms for the Senate for life.

      Partial terms from special elections or appointments count as a full term.

      No benefits after serving in Congress.

      Age 25, conservative Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler)

      by KyleinWA on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:08:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Term limits, I don't get the appeal. (12+ / 0-)

        Voters love to rant about the need for term limits when I come to their doors, and I can't even feign interest (so I don't).

        Would this not also discourage young people from starting a career in politics? Although I suppose you don't even like the concept of the career politician...

        No benefits after serving in Congress will just discourage those who are not independently wealthy from running for office. Do Republicans at least in theory want fewer multi-millionaires in congress?

        Heck, I think I'd prefer age limits to term limits. At least the senate wouldn't be the rest home it is now.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:20:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not huge on legislative term limits (6+ / 0-)

        I (kinda) understand executive ones, but there's not enough power in the legislature for long tenure to be a problem and term limits largely serve to prevent actual members from gaining enough institutional knowledge to really work the system well and give more power to lobbyists.

        •  Actually I Hate Executive Term Limits as Well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Hey, if I want to vote for Obama (or Bush Jr) three times why shouldn't I be allowed to?

          If some executive is not a good executive it should be up to the people and the opposition party to get rid of them.

          •  I'm ambivalent on executive term limits (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, gabjoh

            Don't think they're really necessary, but make more sense than legislative ones.

            •  I'd concede that (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              PassionateJus

              But I still think they suck. I'm glad FDR was able to serve 3 1/2 terms, and I would have liked a 3rd term for Clinton. On the other hand, Eisenhower might have been able to serve as long as he liked, and he was no huge civil rights advocate, and Reagan, with dementia, could have won again in 1988. But that's ultimately beside the point: It should be up to the voters to decide.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 04:25:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  The only kind of reasonable term limit (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        would be 6 terms for the House and 3 for the Senate, but I'm still highly skeptical on the construct.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:06:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I've never really understood (5+ / 0-)

        the appeal of term limits.  States with term limits seem to be no better in terms of governing than states without.  Mostly, term limits just seem to cause endless musical chairs as people move from one office to the other.

        I definitely like term limits for singularly powerful offices like president, governor, and mayor, but I'm truly ambivalent (leaning towards opposed to) legislative term limits.  Our problems in government go way beyond the fact that some of our politicians have served for 30+ years.

        •  I don't like term limits for any elected position (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, PassionateJus

          I could throw my support behind a 15-year initial term for Supreme Court Justices, with the Congress having to vote on whether to award additional 10-year terms when it's up, but in the case of elected positions, the voters always have the recourse to throw the bums out, as long as there are elections.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:10:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ensure that elections are fairer (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            especially for legislative seats, and you could get the benefits of seniority but, in some ways, an easier time to get rid of problem legislators.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:25:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  With term limits (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, James Allen, MichaelNY

              you also get rid of good legislators.

              That's the rub.

              •  Absolutely. "Fair elections" might have been (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                a poor choice of words on my part. I simply meant that with so much money in politics and gerrymandered districts, it's hard to throw someone out of office. You also get people that are much more ideological and, quite likely, less willing to work with the other side. Fix that stuff, and we can probably get some shit done.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 08:55:41 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Which is the problem with the (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, BeloitDem

                "throw the bums out" mindset in general.  Many politicians suck, but not all.  If one just votes against any incumbent (and I know some that do), they run the risk of replacing them with someone worse.

                But then, voting based solely on incumbency is really just an excuse to not have to think.

                •  And in our current system, the people (0+ / 0-)

                  most likely to lose in a "throw the bums out" mentality are the people that we can probably least likely afford to lose--those willing to work with the other side and so on. The people that are insulated feel even more emboldened be inhibit proper governance.

                  "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                  by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:28:52 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Coming from a state (7+ / 0-)

        that used to have the most stringent term limits in the nation, I have to say that the notion of a "citizen's legislature" is and will always be a pie-in-the-sky fantasy (alongside the "kick out all the bums" mentality).

        The common joke in California was that once freshmen legislators remember where the bathroom is, they're termed out. It led to a deluge of crap legislation that weren't worth the paper they're printed on, few wholesale reforms where needed, and massive increase of special interest control over legislative business, all because the legislators couldn't stay long enough to delve into the important issues and were beholden to big-moneyed interests who could finance some run for higher office. Those who didn't make it became lobbyists or got cushy jobs in the state bureaucracy.

        In any case, there was simply a massive increase of run-of-the-mill politicians that were mostly anonymous and acted more as lackeys than leaders. About the only good thing one could have said about term limits was that it increased ethnic and gender diversity in the legislature, especially in a state that was demographically changing very fast.

        23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:21:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I like term limits in some caases. (0+ / 0-)

        I am for preventing contiguous terms. People should not be running for office while in office. They should concentrate on their elected position.  

        I am against preventing future terms. If someone is a wonderful legislator, they should be able to serve a long time.

        Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

        by R30A on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:17:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Term limits have been problematic in California (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The new modification, 12 years in either house, should help, but over the years, the revolving door hasn't allowed for enough experience. You had 2-4 year members running high power committees, which just isn't a good thing. Novices running Ways and Means, Appropriations and Budget in Congress would end up being one big circus.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:42:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Unicameral house (4+ / 0-)

      635 members from single member constituencies elected every four years at the same time as the president.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:15:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I might go for slightly fewer districts (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A

        But I would want to see them apportioned without reference to state boundaries.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:49:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Several problems with that (0+ / 0-)

        1) Staggering terms is important.  Without them, it would be very easy for radical legislation to get passed.  Think about what happened on the state level after 2010.

        2) There is a need for the Senate.  I know it sucks most of the time and it's not fair that California and Wyoming get the same amount of representation.  But since our country has state governments and each state has a certain degree of autonomy,  it is important for each state it's own, separate representation.  Senators are delegates from the state to the federal government.  If you want to talk about giving California a few more at-large Senators and taking one away from Wyoming, that's fair.

        •  while I think that state governments are important (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          I don't think that the state as an entity should have its own representation in the federal government. As a nation we pretty much abandoned that whole notion when we amended the constitution to directly elect them.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:08:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Okay (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          1. That's true, it's just that midterms seems to be used sometimes to play partisan games, but with clean districts, that might be less of an issue. A system of government where the executive and legislative is separate probably does need staggering to keep things balanced.

          2. At large representation is pretty unequal when it's based just on regional/provincial reasoning, Reynolds vs. Sims affirms that, except it doesn't apply federally. Wyoming has totally at large representation in Congress, which doesn't exactly serve much of a practical purpose, since there is effectively no differentiation.

          27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:48:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Might not be popular on this site right now, but (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, Chachy

      Abolish the Senate and the Electoral College, require direct, nationwide election of the President.

      Other ideas:

      1. Instant runoffs in every race where no candidate gets a majority, with a formula determining the value of 2nd- and 3rd-choice voting. I think they're doing this now in SF, aren't they?

      2. Guarantee to every adult citizen the right to vote in Federal, state, and local elections. As part of the legislation passed under such an amendment, it should be a Federal felony with a lengthy prison term attached (at least 5 years) to try to obstruct any citizen from registering or voting, or to deliberately try to confuse the voter into not voting.

      3. Abolish the 2nd Amendment and let Congress and the states regulate guns the same way they regulate any other piece of machinery.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:52:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Voting Holiday (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      I'd make at the very least the voting date for a general election either a weekend or designate whatever day it fell on a voting holiday.

    •  Right to Vote (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingTag

      The good thing is that, at least from my reading of Amendments, your second alternative Amendment would be redundant. Several different Amendments explicitly refer to an affirmative right to vote. As worded in the 15th Amendment:

      The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.
      As worded in the 19th Amendment:
      The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.
      As worded in the 24th Amendment:
      The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay any poll tax or other tax.
      As worded in the 26th Amendment:
      The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age.
      I'm not a lawyer, but I think this consistent theme in four different Amendments establishes an inherent, affirmative right to vote.
      •  A 5th Amendment (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, BeloitDem

        granting an affirmative right to vote, would instantly invalidate Voter ID laws and seriously hamper attempts to restrict early voting, sufficient polling places/machines, etc.

        25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:52:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Eh (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, PassionateJus

          I'm not sold that having such an amendment would do any such thing.

          In order for those things to happen, we'd need to spell them out explicitly as such in the constitution.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 01:47:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't be so sure (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Part of what got the WI voter ID law thrown out was the WI constitution's affirmative right to vote I'd probably also include an explicit ban on burdensome requirements to exercise that right.

            Also, the amendment would not be redundant. All the amendments that AndySon quoted specify that the right to vote shall not be abridged on account of certain attributes, not that those classes of people have an affirmative right to vote. Lots of felons and people with the same name as felons are still denied the right to vote, and while any amendment that could get through the normal process would make an exception for this, my amendment wouldn't.

    •  Affirmative right to vote is paramount to me. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But another I'd like is an increase in the House every Census; maybe 20 seats every Census, or 50 every other Census.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:48:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  See the DKE Policy thread (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      for my proposed amendment. It would basically make sure that the government never shuts down and the Republicans could never take the country hostage again.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 06:52:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Federal judicial term limits (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. One non-renewable 18 year term for the Supreme Court.  Supreme Court appointments are staggered every 2 years.    

      2. One 15 year term for any non-Supreme Court judicial position, and a maximum of 25 years as a federal judge total (Supreme Court service doesn't count).  

      This would do two things, one it reduces the stake of judicial appointments and makes them less political and prevents selecting younger and less experienced nominees simply because they would serve longer.

    •  Since this is fantasy (0+ / 0-)

      I would also propose an amendment stripping all teabaggers and right-wingers of their citizenship and shipping them to Siberia (where they can enjoy the mostly-white hard-right anti-gay agenda of Vlad Putin and Russia).

  •  Oregon Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Gygaxian

    Go Jeff Merkley!

  •  The reason why supposed GOP Moderates... (0+ / 0-)

    will never act against the teabaggers is that the teabaggers are holding them hostage as well.  If the moderates moves against the teabaggers, the far right would figuratively leave the caucus, if not literally.  That would take 40-80 votes from Boehner and the GOP and virtually put the GOP in minority status permanently.  

    Right now they probably figure correctly that the shutdown, while it hurts the country and probably the moderates electorally, is their better option than breaking from the teabaggers for their party.  How long it goes on and how the public feels might bring them around to deciding that there is lasting damage being done and that they could lose their seats, which would further embolden the power of the teabaggers in their now shrunken of moderates caucus.

    What will they decide about the debt ceiling - who the hell knows.  

    But purely strategic, the very small tea party caucus is completely controlling the rest of their caucus because they have the rest of them believing that they would stick it to them - pull all support for Boehner on any vote and thus force Boehner and co to work with Pelosi on every vote for every thing.  

    Pelosi knew progressives would never take things that far in her caucus, while the Blue Dogs were the reason she had the majority.  Boehner and moderate GOP will not change until enough of them are under real threat to lose re-election themselves.  Last I read they had something like an 11-to-1 fundraising advantage, and are coming up on a non-Presidential year - where turnout ALWAYS favors Republicans.  So moderates are feeling pretty secure in their re-election chances right now.  

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:06:55 PM PDT

  •  I have a storm headed toward me (4+ / 0-)

    Karen's not looking like it'll be too bad, at least in this part of New Orleans (along the coast there are evacuations) but prepared just in case.  During Hurricane Isaac I got very good at the game Risk especially when the power went out so we'll see what happens this time.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:08:00 PM PDT

    •  we just got the remnants of a typhoon this past (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff

      week, especially over the weekend. It rained for several days with barely a break, and generally much harder than it usually does, and we also had strong winds. A lot of people in the Portland area lost power. I struggled to drive flooded streets, and a portion of the highway I live off of has some huge new potholes.

      I'm still working on a Risk map of the Portland metro area. It's much better conceptually than the one those guys did that was brought up in the digest.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:28:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Holyoke, MA City Council (0+ / 0-)

    just got juuuuuuiiicy!     http://www.masslive.com/...

    Clap On, Clap Off, The Clapper!

    by ActivistGuy on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:29:25 PM PDT

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this weekend (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

    Panel- Regular host Ferrell Wellman is back, Ronnie Ellis, the Frankfort reporter for CNHI, Tom Loftus, Frankfort bureau chief for the C-J, and Nick Storm from cn2.

    Issue 1- The shutdown's effect on Kentucky 2014 elections- Nick Storm says he has talked to party leaders on both sides and they say not much effect now, but it could have a major effect if it is prolonged, pointing to the sequester not having much effect. Ferrell thinks the sequester may have more effect when candidates run lots of ads on tv and when more cuts hit next year. ALG has tried to make some noise, calling Mitch "Mr. Gridlock". Ronnie Ellis notes the effect on tourism (Mammoth Cave) and Ft. Knox and Ft. Campbell. Ronnie Ellis thinks the only House member that could be in trouble over this would be freshman Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

    ACA- Kentucky's online exchanges opened this week and it got national publicity. Gov. Beshear has penned an op-ed in the NY Times and made other national appearances. Ronnie Ellis seems to think things are working pretty well so far and the website crashed the first day because of demand, and if one calls the phone number, if a person waits longer than 5 minutes, there is a prompt to leave a number to be called back. So far 4800 people have signed up, and another 18,000 have registered and searched. A woman from Ashland may have been the first to sign up in the country.

    Medical Marijuana- Speaker Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonburg) has said he may support legalized medical marijuana, which is a big switch for him. Ronnie Ellis thinks this may be coming down the road, but 2014 would be a tough sell. AG Jack Conway would oppose this now, depending on the language and scope.

    LRC- Marcia Siler, a Louisville attorney and veteran of the LRC will take over for Bobby Sherman, who abruptly resigned, as the acting director. She was nominated by Sen. Robert Stivers (R-Manchester) and voted in unanimously. He and Stumbo speak highly of her. This is in light of the resignation of Rep. John Arnold (D-Sturgis) and accusations of sexual harassment against Rep. Will Coursey (D-Symsonia). They are now up to three lawsuits that have been filed. Legislators also asked for an audit of the LRC, which is not under the jurisdiction of the Auditor of Public Accounts. It would be done by the National Council of State Legislators.

    Other legislative news- Sen. Bob Leeper (I/R-Paducah) will retire. He represents the northern half of the Purchase, and may be the only person ever to win election as Dem, Rep, and Independent. Ronnie Ellis notes this "makes him the most aptly named lawmaker in America". This seat has trended hard to the right and President Obama is extremely unpopular here. Also, Will Schroeder II, son of the former Supreme Court Justice, will run for Sen. Katie Stine (R-Southgate)'s seat. The Leeper seat could be competitive, but leans GOP for now, while Stine's seat is pretty solidly GOP based in Campbell County. I expect a crowded field for the Stine seat.

    Mitch McConnell's money- He has gotten money from every state, and his biggest donor area is the District of Columbia, followed by Texas, Kentucky only in 3rd place. 48 of the Forbes 400 list has given Mitch money. This article in the C-J blunts GOP attacks on ALG's out of state fundraising.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:30:18 PM PDT

  •  The movie "Gravity" is getting stellar reviews. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, askew, HoosierD42, madmojo

    I intend to see it!

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:49:49 PM PDT

    •  Ditto, it looks great. n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:54:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not a Sandra Bullock fan, but.... (0+ / 0-)

      Seeing it today in IMAX (real IMAX, not one of those fake ones at the Regal Cinemas) in 3D.

      •  The original choices for the roles (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madmojo

        were supposedly Angelina Jolie and Robert Downey Jr, oddly enough.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:00:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I wanna see it, too. (0+ / 0-)

      It's supposed to be...different. There are other movies I want to see--Prisoners, Captain Phillips, Rush, The Counselor, and so on--but this one looks like it won't be like them.

      My guess is that Bullock wins another Oscar for this. At the very least, she'll be nominated.

      Oh yeah, want to know who's really gonna win an Oscar? Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. I'd bet a lot of money on that.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:00:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  State vs National Parties (6+ / 0-)

    I am in an odd place where my support of the Republican Party on a state level has never been higher but my support of the Republicans in congress gas never been lower.

    Open thread question:  How large if any is the disconnect between how you feel politically on a national level vs a state and local level?

    Republican, MI-11, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

    by Bart Ender on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:49:51 PM PDT

    •  I feel more in-tune with the nat'l than the state. (4+ / 0-)

      NJ state Dems do fine electorally and they have some gems, but too many messed up priorities and not enough party loyalty by some of the higher echelons.  So I'd say the disconnect is medium.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:52:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Virtually nil (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, highacidity, MichaelNY, itskevin

      I'm not sure how I feel yet about the "grand bargain" that just passed here in Oregon, though, and I do tend to be friendly to development, at least when it's done in a responsible and forward-thinking way, than many Oregon Democrats.

      One thing I've definitely noticed is that I'm a lot warier of populism, on both the right and the left, than I used to be. I have an easier time spotting it and seeing through it, recognizing inherent contradictions, etc., than I did when I was in high school and college. That being said, I love seeing Democratic candidates using populism to appeal to voters in places where it's effective, but that's mostly because I love it when Democratic candidates win.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:06:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting question (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, James Allen, SaoMagnifico

      There are a lot of corrupt politicians in New York, from both parties, and I have problems with Andrew Cuomo. On the other hand, there's a lot of legalized corruption in DC. I guess where I'd come down is that the Democratic Party in New York State could be a hell of a lot better, but I've gotten to appreciate any semblance of liberality from Democrats in Congress, so I guess I have lower expectations of what's possible in DC, and though that might not make sense in certain ways, New York State is a lot more liberal than the nation.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:14:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  this is something I try to point out to (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, MichaelNY

      splitters here in OR who think the Dem Party sucks: our congressfolks are among the strongest opponents in congress to NSA spying on Americans, they stood against our involvement in Syria, and generally come out tops in other considerations too. And our state-level Democrats are pretty good too. They passed a state-level ENDA years ago, have increased the rights of workers and strength of unions, etc. Across the board Oregon Democrats tend to be pretty damn progressive.

      At the same time, I think I'm losing confidence in the party at both the state and federal levels, in their ability to deal with the problems we face effectively, and I think that is a big reason why I'm also feeling less interested lately. Although at the state level its mostly because I'm skeptical of a lot of Kitzhaber's reforms, and at the federal level I am of Obama's education and economic policies. I don't really have a problem with legislative Democrats at either level.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:18:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Strange (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      Because with a few exceptions - though, admittedly, some pretty major ones - the MI GOP has an almost indentical agenda to the national party and have gone through it in nearly the exact same way with the same tactics.  The only saving grace is that a few times (and I can count them on one hand with fingers to spare) is that Snyder isn't a complete and utter wingnut.  But, on net, the results haven't been much different.  

      I mean, just as an example, I don't care whether you supported it or not, but how the GOP pushed RTW through was absolutely disgraceful.  Another example was how they rammed through the "reform" of the local redistricting of the Oakland County commission.  I had never seen a legislature so blatantly meddle in county-level redistricting.  It was astonishing.

    •  I had some of that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      when I lived in North Dakota. I had few complaints about how the ND GOP (John Hoeven, Jack Dalrymple, etc) was running the state even while the national GOP was driving me up the wall.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:54:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I definitely identify more with National Dems (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Indiana is just too conservative a state for state Democrats to be on my level (my political compass is pretty damn radical).

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:55:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Gov: I mentioned last night I got my VBM ballot (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin, James Allen

    I mailed it in today.  A month ahead of the election, I know, but I didn't want to forget it.  Just like the NJ-Sen ballot, I double postage stamped it to make 100% sure that it reaches its destination without a hitch (the return envelope is somewhat heavier and longer than the common envelope).  Besides, the USPS could use the revenue.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 05:55:24 PM PDT

  •  VA-Gov... (8+ / 0-)

    I think that this race may well prove to be one of the most clear signs of the Tea Party's coming demise (so long as we defeat Cuccinelli).

    Ted Cruz is coming to his 'aid' on Saturday night...I hope we tie Cruz firmly around the neck of the Cooch and keep him strung there until election day.

    Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.

    by Kysen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:02:12 PM PDT

  •  I'm starting to cover Neal Marchbanks in TX-19 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    highacidity, DownstateDemocrat

    In case you guys aren't aware, Neal Marchbanks is the current Democratic candidate running in TX-19, the same district that Randy Neugebauer reprsents.

    Marchbanks and his campaign are having supporters sign a card for the WWII memorial park ranger that got harassed by Neugebauer.

    http://marchbanksforcongress.com/...

    Here's Neal Marchbanks's website:

    http://marchbanksforcongress.com/

    And donation page:

    https://secure.actblue.com/...

  •  Is anyone else creeped out by Virginia Foxx? (12+ / 0-)

    When I see her I worry she is going to come through the screen and perform some evil spell on me or would be like the villain in an episode of Scooby Doo.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:50:20 PM PDT

  •  Another Shutdown for FY2015? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    If you haven't read his comments here already, you should, because I think DCCyclone hits the nail right on the head in regards to my question of whether the Democrats get blamed for a default. Unless they haven't lost complete touch with reality, they know they'll be destroyed--if not for a generation, than at least for a long, long time.

    But based on his suggestion that they might try this for FY2015, which would be right before the 2014 elections, I have to wonder if this is enough to cause a wave. I think it is, and perhaps a serious one. Maybe not if it's a 1980s, symbolic shutdown, or maybe not if, for whatever reason, it's a bad cycle for us heading into 2014, but if this doesn't end soon and then they try to do it again, I think they are screwed.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:52:13 PM PDT

  •  VA-10 (8+ / 0-)

    I think Frank Wolf is suddenly going to get a second look by his constituents. Or, at least, I hope he does. This is a district where you could get a senior level Washington bureaucrat to run. It's pretty red, yes, but I don't think impossibly so.

    The SEPA districts that Republicans so neatly gerrymandered for themselves (again) might end up back in play as well.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:54:04 PM PDT

    •  Forget it (4+ / 0-)

      Wolf is invincible.

      It's a pure toss-up, maybe at worst toss-up/tilt R, as an open seat.

      But during debates for that first big vote Wolf's floor comments were solely about how federal employees should get backpay during the shutdown.

      And he's on record as one of the 20 calling for Boehner to allow a clean CR.

      The only way he's vulnerable is if the GOP House does this shit again next year.  As President Obama said in an interview this week, "They have a crisis every three months.  Do you notice that?"  If there's a shutdown this time next year, and more agonizing theatrics along the way, some Democratic sacrificial lambs will win, and this would be one seat we could take by accident.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:32:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  People who seem invincible (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        have been swept away by less.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:55:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Remind me, why did (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Melissa Bean win that old district away from Phil Crane? Sure, she ran in 2002 and got a lot of money when she ran again in 2004, but the district's line didn't change. Even if she was helped by Kerry, Bush did pretty well that year, including in Illinois. Was it changing and I am just not remembering it?

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:16:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not by less than a wave, no (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, madmojo

          Wolf attends to his district, works hard, knows how to bend to win over center-left crossover votes.

          It would take a wave to beat him, and a wave would require this House GOP to remain in a continuing dual war, one a civil war and the other with Democrats.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:30:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  yeah, things need to get worse (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            we didn't win the house when Republicans shut down the government in the 90s.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:32:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  At this point, the best thing (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              for us politically would be for them to try this crap next fall. It would be damaging, and specifically to people involved, so I can't say I wish for it, but I wanted it to get to this point. Then, as is the case now, it was their choice. Only the cold, hard slap of reality will do then any good. If we are going to benefit from them deciding to test the bounds of acceptable behavior, I'm okay with that, because we aren't the ones pushing them.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:03:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Wow! Who is this guy? (22+ / 0-)

    Lovin' it!!

    Dealing with terrorists has taught us some things,” said Washington Rep. Jim McDermott after voting no on one of Thursday’s GOP bills. “You can’t deal with ’em. This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare—affordable health care—in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can’t figure out how to admit it.” Why would House Democrats give away what the Supreme Court and the 2012 electorate didn’t? “You can’t say, OK, you get half of Obamacare—this isn’t a Solomonic decision,” McDermott said. “So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin’ lost.
    http://www.slate.com/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:57:11 PM PDT

  •  Scott Garrett. (4+ / 0-)

    Will someone decent please challenge this nutjob?

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:02:07 PM PDT

    •  Why does Mark Sanford's picture (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      look like a bad watercolor job?

      More importantly, can Dave Schweikert's comment that "This is [his] idea of fun" hurth him next time around?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:51:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also, Ted Yoho compares himself to Rosa Parks and (5+ / 0-)

      MLK.

      Wow, just wow...

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:59:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow they so totally look like America. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      Not! A bunch of mostly southern, white, middle aged, suburban/rural, arch conservatives now control whether the government is open or not.

    •  There is a credible Democratic challenger. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, redrelic17, bjssp, Gygaxian

      At least it appears there is.  His name is Roy Cho and from this news source, he's raised more $ than previous Democratic challengers to Scott Garrett.

      http://www.northjersey.com/...

      Roy Cho, the 32-year-old Democratic lawyer from Hackensack who wants to challenge Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in North Jersey’s 5th District next year, has already raised more money than Garrett’s two previous opponents. And the election is more than a year off.

      The $80,804 Cho reported this week puts him ahead of where Garrett’s opponent in 2012, Adam Gussen, was for the full cycle. Garrett’s 2010 opponent Tod Theise also raised only $26,000.

      Another potential Garrett challenger next year, former Rep. Andy Maguire, decided in June not to run after putting about $80,000 of his own money into a campaign account.

      - See more at: http://www.northjersey.com/...

      Roy Cho for Congress:  http://www.roycho.com/

      Donate:  https://act.myngp.com/...

      Cho on the Issues:  http://www.roycho.com/...

      •  There are a lot of Koreans in Northern NJ (0+ / 0-)

        I'm guessing he's Korean - though Cho is sometimes a Chinese name, Zhou and Chou are much more likely, and Cho is a very common Korean name. Some Koreans are quite religious Christians who might vote Republican and could be swayed by the presence of a fellow Korean on the ballot.

        However, this district is a very difficult one for Democrats, and he'll have to raise a lot more the 80K to be impressive. We shouldn't be comparing him to previous ineffective candidates, but rather, to previous effective candidates in districts with similar political profiles.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:53:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, this is October 2013 still (0+ / 0-)

          And 2014 is a midterm election year so we'll see.

          I'm not sure why you're saying we should be comparing Cho to previous candidates in districts with similar political profiles.  I'm only looking at what the article cited points to as far as NJ-05, not other districts.

          Scott Garrett's district isn't that difficult.  It's R+4 so I don't envision that much of an uphill battle although it won't be easy either to mount a credible challenge to Garrett.

          •  Garrett has never come close to losing (0+ / 0-)

            And my point is, if he's doing somewhat better than previous candidates who were more or less decisively defeated, big deal. He's gonna need lots of money, and I don't know if that'll be enough.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:13:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Here are the voting tallies since 2002 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, MichaelNY, R30A

              And 2002 was when Scott Garrett was first elected:

              2002:  Won 59% of the vote vs. 38.3% of Democratic Challenger.

              2004:  Won 57% of the vote vs. 41% of the Democratic Challenger

              2006:  Won 54% of the votes vs. 43% of the Democratic Challenger

              2008:  Won 55% of the votes vs. 42% of the Democratic Challenger (Ballotpedia has some errors to correct on percentages allocated to correct candidates)

              2010:  Won 64% of the votes vs. 32% of the Democratic challenger.  However, 2010 was also a year where the GOP had the momentum in September 2010 - October 2010.

              2012:  Won 55% of the votes vs. 42% of the Democratic challenger.

              You're right.  Scott Garrett's district is a tough one to crack.  However, I'd argue not impossible.  There are redder districts in the country than Garrett's.

              Also note, I'm really not sure how the government shutdown is factoring into NJ-05 since the GOP have been criticized big time for it.

              You're right.  Lots of money will likely be needed but I have yet to see how Roy Cho's campaign will play out.  I've put myself on his e-mailing list and will see what updates his campaign has in the coming months.

              •  I agree that it's not impossible (0+ / 0-)

                In a big enough wave, it might be possible. But my sense (and I could be wrong) is that there are a lot of rich people in that district who like a conservative Republican and are willing to vote for someone nuts against any Democratic candidate.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:30:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  didn't it get closer in redistricting? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, BeloitDem

              He hasn't faced a real challenge since then. It'd be tough, no question, but doable. Especially in a wave.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:31:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  well (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, James Allen, R30A

              if Roy Cho actually campaigns he'd already be an upgrade from Garrett's 2012 opponent, who more or less only won the nomination by nabbing county party endorsements and then ran a campaign that would make Martha Coakley look like a mastermind. and as noted above Garrett's district got bluer in redistricting, pulling into some Dem areas (most notably Teaneck, which is probably even bluer downballot as long as the Dem candidate can win over the AIPAC crowd). so yes, count me among those who see this district as a worthy target.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:07:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Wooo Teaneck! (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The key swing region in this district, though, is northern Bergen County. The western part is rural and quite conservative (though the few Democrats there are some of the best), and the southeastern part is pretty progressive. But the northern part of the county has a bunch of "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" types - the kind that it seems like Cho might be able to appeal to.

                And Teaneck is bluer downballot - Steve Rothman (relative liberal but SUPER hawkish on Israel and VERY focused on it) consistently got in the 90s, while Obama got about 70 percent (I think?)

                "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

                by gabjoh on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:34:45 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I think the Koreans in this area are pretty (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          strongly D - IIRC the heavily Korean areas like Fort Lee, Edgewater etc. are pretty blue?

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:27:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Cho sounds like a motivated candidate, at least. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That's a good sign.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:18:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We'll see how it plays out (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Gygaxian

          As MichaelNY points out, Garrett's NJ-05 district is a tough nut to crack but the majority of challenges against Garrett enabled the Democratic candidate in question to receive at least 41% of the votes.

          Garrett's district is not as red as other districts around the country although the GOP still has advantage over this.  Unfortunately, I don't know the voter registration numbers in detail to make a better judgement on this.

  •  Clowns in Congress (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike

    How most voters think about Congress: warning, deep analysis.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:05:28 PM PDT

  •  Here's a great bit of music! (0+ / 0-)

    In the game "Bioshock Infinite," there's a scene in the early part of the game where you're wandering through the city on their founder's day and there's a Barbershop Quartet performing their perfect take on a Beach Boys song:
    http://youtu.be/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:10:50 PM PDT

  •  This is my mistake, let me make it good. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    A song by R.E.M. about a Ted Cruz type who suddenly realizes his destructive tendencies: World Leader Pretend.

    Ah, the fantasies that take place inside Michael Stipe's head...

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:15:32 PM PDT

  •  Thinking about doing a diary about Utah's bench (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    for various 2014 (and a couple 2016) elections. Only problem is, besides the Congressional candidates, nobody's declared for 2014 yet. And doing uninformed speculation (even if my sources tell me of a few possibilities next year) seems a little ham-handed if nobody is publicly running yet.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:37:40 PM PDT

  •  MI Political News (7+ / 0-)

    There was quite a bit of political news here in Michigan, today:

    - Some anti-abortion groups have pushed a legislative initiative to require insurers to offer seperate riders for people who waant abortion coverage as part of their plan.  It appears they have the signatures, and the support of enough of the legislature to bypass an executive veto:

    LANSING — Abortion-rights opponents turned in 24 boxes containing 315,477 petition signatures to the Secretary of State today in their effort to require insurance companies and health plans to offer separate riders if a customer wants abortion coverage.

    The SOS has to certify that at least 258,088 of the signatures are valid before the petition would go to the state Legislature to approve or reject. If approved, as appears likely in the strongly anti-abortion Legislature, it automatically becomes law, with no opportunity by Gov. Rick Snyder to review or veto the legislation.

    Last year, Snyder vetoed the optional rider language when it was included in a bill that transformed Blue Cross Blue Shield into a nonprofit mutual insurer.

    “All we need is a simple majority in each chamber,” said Ed Rivet of Right to Life of Michigan, which spearheaded the petition drive. “Among the 315,000 signatures is a majority of members of the House and Senate.”

    The way this works if that the legislature has 40 days to approve the initiative.  If they don't, it goes to the voters, this year.  Senate Democrats are planning to give this hell, but that's the body in which the GOP actually has a supermajority, though.

    - Gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer has bought up the "Rick Snyder" Google search:

    • GUBERNATORIAL GOOGLE WAR: Snyder still won't come out and say he's running for re-election, but his campaign got the party started last month with a significant Google ad buy and, later, television ads. The Schauer campaign has now purchased a few Google search terms as well, including "Rick Snyder."

    Go ahead and Google the governor's name. The top related ad will take you to his "One Successful Nerd" campaign website. But just below it you'll find a second link to a page on Schauer's website with a form letter telling the governor that right to work "is broken." Here's a screenshot.

    Spokesman Zack Pohl confirmed that the Schauer campaign is "running online ads highlighting Gov. Snyder's tax giveaways to corporate special interests, as well as the so-called 'right to work' laws, which have failed to create jobs."

    - Terri Lynn Land begs Lt. Gov. Brian Calley to tell MIgOP to support Terri Lynnn Land for Senate:
    Lt. Gov. Brian Calley called Friday for Michigan Republicans to unite behind former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land as their U.S. Senate nominee in 2014.

    “Terri Lynn Land is the strongest possible U.S. Senate nominee for our party in 2014,” Calley said in a statement released by Land’s campaign. “She has a history of winning elections by historic margins and leading our party to victories in some very challenging years. Terri will win this race.”

    “Now is the time for our party to unite behind Terri Lynn Land and I urge Republicans across the state to join me in supporting her.”

    Land, the former two-term secretary of state, is the sole announced candidate for the GOP’s Senate nomination.

    This is a press release on her website.  It's almost like a terrorist hostage video.  It's pitiful.
    •  What's going on with the initiatives (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, HoosierD42, askew

      on our side?

      We should put these initiatives on the ballot:

      1. RTW repeal.
      2. marriage equality
      3. fair redistricting
      4. repeal of this anti-choice law

      •  This (4+ / 0-)

        This has been what's been bugging me the most.  I've heard NOTHING of 1 & 3.  In fact, I emailed the Schauer campaign last week about this and have got nothing back.  It would be a crime if there are no plans.  My hope and feeling is that they may just be biding their time so as to surprise the opposition to either of these.

        On 2, most equality organizations and associations are pushing for a 2016 referendum, though, one small group is pushing for a 2014 one that I haven't heard anything about sense they announced it.

      •  Speak of the Devil (3+ / 0-)

        Well, MLive is reporting that Schauer spoke at a Saginaw Democrats dinner, last night, and apparently brought up his priority to repeal the RTW law, though, they didn't say whether this was something in passing or not, and exactly how he hoped to go about doing it.  Since it's statutory, it could be repealed/replaced if Dems had control of legislature and governorship, though, that's not realistic given that we're not likely to get back the Senate (though, pundits are saying it's possible we could get closer than we have in years).

  •  Here's another question (6+ / 0-)

    inspired by KingofSpades saying he misses being represented by Jim McDermott when he was a toddler.

    Can you name every Congressman who has ever represented you?  For some of the older posters this might be tough.  Luckily I only have to go back to 1990 redistricting to see who my Rep. has been.

    GA-01: Jack Kingston (R-GA)
    NC-07: Charlie Rose (D-NC), Mike McIntyre (D-NC)
    NC-02: Bob Etheridge (D-NC)
    NC-04: David Price (D-NC)
    NC-08: Robin Hayes (R-NC)
    VA-03: Bobby Scott (D-VA)

    •  Here's my list (5+ / 0-)

      VA-8: Herb Harris (D) (1975-80)
      Stan Parris (R) (1981-90)
      Jim Moran (D) (1991-92)
      VA-10: Frank Wolf (R) (1993-2001)
      MD-8: Connie Morella (R) (2001-02)
      Chris Van Hollen (D) (2003-12)
      MD-6: John Delaney (D) (2013 on)

      Note: I moved from VA to MD in March 2001.  Other district changes were due to redistricting.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:20:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Stan Parris (5+ / 0-)

        I can't let you mention Stan Parris without saying what an evil racist asshole he was. He once said of the 14th Street Bridge, which crosses the Potomac near the Pentagon:

        The 14th Street Bridge is the longest bridge in the world. It stretches between Virginia and Africa.
        Rot in hell, Stan.
        •  Wow. Words fail (4+ / 0-)

          If I believed in such things, I'd be glad that he was presently burning in hell.

        •  Don't blame me (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Skaje, davybaby

          I was too young to vote then.

          Parris, incidentally, was first elected to Congress in 1972, then defeated by Herb Harris in 1974.  In 1980, Parris came back and defeated Harris, then barely held the seat in a 1982 rematch.  He then won more easily until Jim Moran defeated him in 1990; Moran still holds the redrawn, more Democratic 8th district.

          Herb Harris, incidentally, is alive at age 87, living in the Mount Vernon area of Fairfax County.  Prior to being elected to Congress he was on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.  It's rather impressive that he won three elections to Congress (and fell just short in two others), in the 1970s and 80s when NOVA was much more conservative than it is today.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:23:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Mines (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      Major Owens (89-04)
      Bob Menendez (04-06)
      Albio Sires (06-12)
      Donald Payne Jr (13-present)

      I didn't know you were born in Georgia. I always thought you were a Tar Heel born n breed.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:36:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  okay, simple (5+ / 0-)

      OR-05 1985-2006: Denny Smith (R), Mike Kopetski (D), Jim Bunn (R), Darlene Hooley (D)

      OR-03 2006: Earl Blumenauer (D)

      OR-04 2006-2010: Peter DeFazio (D)

      VA-08 2009: Jim Moran (D)

      OR-05 2010-2011: Kurt Schrader (D)

      OR-01 2011-2013: David Wu (D), Suzanne Bonamici (D)

      OR-03 2013: Earl Blumenauer (D)

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:42:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  pretty easy for me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      RI-01: Ronald Machtley, Patrick Kennedy, David Cicilline
      IL-01: Bobby Rush

      it's possible that my house was in RI-02 during the 90s, but I don't think it was...kind of hard to find out though.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:53:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's easy for me, (4+ / 0-)

      Coble and Ellmers.

      21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

      by aggou on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:58:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Mine: (4+ / 0-)

      OH-15: Chalmers Wylie (R)
      WA-07: Jim McDermott (D)
      CA-13: Pete Stark (I think)
      NJ-01: Rob Andrews (D)
      NJ-03: Jon Runyan (R)

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:09:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I won't look up the district numbers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, HoosierD42

      But only counting where I was registered, and not college (Joseph DioGuardi and Nita Lowey) or grad school (George Hochbrueckner):

      Ted Weiss, Charlie Rangel, Jerrold Nadler, Carolyn Maloney (first on the Upper West Side and now in the East Village).

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:13:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fun question! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      OK-01: James Robert Jones, Jim Inhofe, Steve Largent, John Sullivan

      VA-05 - Virgil Goode

      VA-02 - Thelma Drake

      PA-02 - Chaka Fattah

      NY-08/10 - Jerrold Nadler

      27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:29:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I really need to go out and explore more (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      CA-06: Barbara Boxer
      CA-05/08/12: Nancy Pelosi
      CA-14: Jackie Speier

      Throw in CA-09 (Barbara Lee) if you count college, though I was always registered to vote at home.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:35:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hmmm... Here's mine, I think. (4+ / 0-)

      (I was born late 1993, by the way, in Kent, Washington, a suburb of Olympia.)

      I can't find a 1990s Washington State Congressional map, so I'm guessing on the first few reps.

      WA-03, I think: Jolene Unsoeld (D) (1993-1995)
      Linda Smith (R) (1995-1999)
      Brian Baird (D) (Jan 1999-August 1999)

      I moved to Utah in August of 1999.

      UT-03: Chris Cannon (R) (1999-2009)
      Jason Chaffetz (R) (2009-2013)

      Redistricting

      UT-04Jim Matheson (D) (2013-present)

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:36:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  List (5+ / 0-)

      CA-19: Robert Lagomarsino
      CA-22: Michael Huffington
      CA-22: Andrea Seastrand
      CA-22: Walter Capps
      CA-22: Lois Capps
      CA-24: Brad Sherman
      CA-24: Elton Gallegly
      CA-26: Julia Brownley

      Further down ballot

      SD-18: Gary K. Hart
      SD-18: Jack O'Connell
      SD-19: Cathie Wright
      SD-19: Tom McClintock
      SD-19: Tony Strickland
      SD-27: Fran Pavley

      AD-35: Jack O'Connell
      AD-35: Brooks Firestone
      AD-35: Hannah-Beth Jackson
      AD-37: Tony Strickland
      AD-37: Audra Strickland
      AD-37 and AD-44: Jeff Gorell

      Pretty much, I've been in districts occupied by moderate to liberal Democrats, moderate to mainstream Republicans and teabaggers.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:42:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Forgot something (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      CA-24: Tony Beilenson
      AD-37: Nao Takasugi

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:47:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Love this question (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      1990-1995: Norman Mineta (D-CA)
      1995-2001: John Campbell (R-CA)
      2001-2008: Mike Honda (D-CA)
      2008-2009: Bill Jefferson (D-LA)
      2009-2011: Joseph Cao (R-LA)
      2011-2013: Cedric Richmond (D-LA)
      2013: Steve Scalise (R-LA)
      2013-Present: Cedric Richmond (D-LA)

      Back in California I had Honda till 2013 redistricting gave me Anna Eshoo.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 09:59:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  not sure (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, HoosierD42, BeloitDem

      Vic Fazio-CA
      Ron Dellums-CA
      Bill Ford-MI
      Jon Kyl-AZ
      John Shadegg-AZ
      Matt Salmon-AZ
      Lynn Rivers-MI
      John Dingell-MI
      Earl Pomeroy-ND
      Doris Matsui-CA

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 10:01:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Moved around a lot as a kid (5+ / 0-)

      HI-01: Cecil Heftel (D)
      IL-21: Melvin Price (D) (now IL-12)
      PA-19: Bill Goodling (R) (now basically PA-04)
      CO-05: Joel Hefley (R)
      HI-01: Neil Abercrombie (D)
      SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D)
      HI-01: Neil Abercrombie (D)
      CO-06: Mike Coffman (R)
      CO-01: Diana DeGette (D)

      Was a military kid, if the varied first few didn't give it away.  Spent some time in South Carolina, then lived back in Hawaii for a long time.  Recently moved to Colorado, then over the past summer moved to a new place a few miles west...that's all it took to switch congressional districts.  A shame I won't have the chance to help vote out Coffman next year.

      •  Forgot an entry (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, HoosierD42

        went to college in Arizona for a bit there in between Hawaii in Colorado.

        AZ-05: JD Hayworth (R) (now split between AZ-09 and AZ-06)

      •  Pretty uneventful list for me (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, MichaelNY

        WA-3 Don Leroy Bonker (D) (1988)

        OR-1 Les AuCoin (D) (1989)

        WA-3 Jolene Unsoeld (D) (1990)

        WA-3 Linda Smith (R) (1995) (my earliest political memory was having a picture taken of her with me at a local parade. Surprising my parents allowed it since I grew up in a very Democratic household lol)

        WA-3 Brian Baird (D) (1999)

        WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) (2011)

        Age 25, conservative Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler)

        by KyleinWA on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:36:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bah, both my parents are staunch Democrats (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KyleinWA, HoosierD42, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

          and they let me be photographed in a constituent visit with Rep. Chalmers Wylie (R-Columbus, OH).  The mayor of my longtime hometown in NJ-01 is a Republican (but she has a nonpartisan office of course), but she was awesome and I would vote for her every time she ran if I could.  She heralded from Odessa, TX and was a cheerleader for the fabled Permian Panthers.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:40:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I know politics is a minor obsession of mine (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42, MichaelNY, psychicpanda

            but sometimes it's nice to know that even politicians can put aside party politics at the local level.  Take the Mayor of Clinton, NJ (who visited my local Dem club the other day).  That township was 50/50 in 2008 and is RED downballot, but she's a progressive Democrat in a nonpartisan position and she's gotten re-elected there as well.

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:49:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Was that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KyleinWA

          how you were led to a life of Republicanism? :D

    •  Sure can (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KyleinWA, HoosierD42

      OR-01: Les AuCoin (D)
      OR-01: Elizabeth Furse (D)
      OR-01: David Wu (D)
      MD-05: Steny Hoyer (D)
      OR-01: Suzanne Bonamici (D)
      AK-AL: Don Young (R)
      OR-01: Suzanne Bonamici (D)

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:14:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Let's see... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, MichaelNY

      John Conyers (D-MI): MI-1
      Bob Carr (D-MI): MI-8
      Dick Chrysler (R-MI): MI-8
      Debbie Stabenow (D-MI): MI-8
      Mike Rogers (R-MI): MI-8

      Mike won his first race by 111 votes in 2000 when Debbie left for the Senate.  How I wish Dianne Byrum would have ran again for the seat.

      •  If I've done my research right... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        (* asterisks indicate who I had to look up)

        * 1981 - 1993 Carl Pursell (R) MI-2
        * 1993 - 1995 William Ford (D) MI-13
           1995 - 2003 Lynn Rivers (D) MI-13
           2003            Thaddeus McCotter  (R) MI-11
        * 2003 - 2004 Chris Van Hollen (D) MD-08
           2004 - 2008 Jim Moran (D) VA-08
           2008 - 2011 Thaddeus McCotter (R) MI-11
        * 2011             David Curson (D) MI-11
           2011 - now   Kerry Bentivolio (R)  MI-11

        1999 - 2003 I was in college; 1999 - 2002 could be Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) DC-AL and 2002 - 2003 could be Jim Moran (D) VA-08 depending on how you're counting representation. Pursell and Ford I had genuinely no idea; Van Hollen I was pretty sure of but looked up to be certain; Curson I completely forgot about.

        “The world is dark, and light is precious. Come closer, dear reader. You must trust me. I am telling you a story.” ― Kate DiCamillo, The Tale of Despereaux

        by borodino21 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:50:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Here's my try (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1988 (birth)-1991: IN-04; Dan Coats (R)
      1991-1997: SC-03; Butler Derrick (D), Lindsey Graham (R)
      1997-2003: IN-03; Tim Roemer (D)
      2003-2006: IN-02; Chris Chocola (R)
      2006-2009: IN-09; Baron Hill (D)
      2009-present: IN-02; Joe Donnelly (D), Jackie Walorski (R)

      So I've been represented by three future Senators!

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 12:13:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hoo boy - the joys of multi-member constituencies! (8+ / 0-)

      Sten Andersson (Social Democrat/S) (1994)
      Beatrice Ask (Moderate/M) (1994-present)
      Carl Bildt (M) (1994, 1998-2002)
      Kent Carlsson (S) (1994)
      Charlotte Cederschiöld (M) (1994)
      Jerzy Einhorn (Christian Democrat/KD) (1994)
      Dan Eriksson (New Democrat/NyD) (1994)
      Elisabeth Fleetwood (M) (1994-2002)
      Juan Fonseca (S) (1994-1998)
      Filip Fridolfsson (M) (1994)
      Birgit Friggebo (Liberal/FP) (1994-1997)
      Eva Goës (MP) (1994-1998)
      Anita Gradin (S) (1994)
      Carl Erik Hedlund (M) (1994-2002, 2004-2006)
      Mats Hellström (S) (1994)
      Bo G. Jenevall (NyD) (1994)
      Olof Johansson (Centre/C) (1994-1998)
      Ingemar Josefsson (S) (1994-2002)
      Henrik S. Järrel (M) (1994-2006)
      Ulf Kristersson (M) (1994-2002)
      Kenneth Kvist (V) (1994-1998)
      Bo Könberg (FP) (1994-2006)
      Ewa Larsson (MP) (1994-2002)
      Sylvia Lindgren (S) (1994-2006)
      Oskar Lindkvist (S) (1994)
      Anita Modin (S) (1994)
      Kristina Nordström (S) (1994-1998)
      Sven-Åke Nygårds (S) (1994-1998)
      Mikael Odenberg (M) (1994-2007)
      Barbro Palmerlund (S) (1994)
      Nikos Papadopoulos (S) (1994-1998, 2002-2010)
      Nalin Pekgul (S) (1994-2002)
      Inger Segelström (S) (1994-2004)
      Michael Stjärnström (KD) (1994-1998)
      Maj Britt Theorin (S) (1994)
      Margaretha af Ugglas (M) (1994)
      Lars Werner (V) (1994)
      Barbro Westerholm (FP) (1994-2006, 2010-present)
      Jan-Erik Wikström (FP) (1994)
      Birgitta Wistrand (M) (1994-2002)
      Anders Ygeman (S) (1994-present)
      Eva Zetterberg (V) (1994-2002)
      Göran Åstrand (M) (1994)

      Stefan Attefall (KD) (1998-2006)
      Ulla Hoffmann (V) (1998-2006)
      Helena Höij (KD) (1998-2006)
      Gunnar Hökmark (M) (1998-2004)
      Kalle Larsson (V) (1998-2010)
      Roland Larsson (S) (1998-2002)
      Anna Lilliehöök (M) (1998-2010)
      Lars Ohly (V) (1998-present)
      Yvonne Ruwaida (Green/MP) (1998-2006)
      Pierre Schori (S) (1998-2002)
      Carl-Erik Skårman (M) (1998-2002, 2004-2006)
      Rolf Åbjörnsson (KD) (1998-2002)

      Lena Adelsohn Liljeroth (M) (2002-present)
      Gunilla Carlsson (M) (2002-2006)
      Joe Frans (S) (2002-2006)
      Gustav Fridolin (MP) (2002-2006)
      Maria Hassan (S) (2002-2006)
      Ana Maria Narti (FP) (2002-2006)
      Birgitta Ohlsson (FP) (2002-present)
      Veronica Palm (S) (2002-present)
      Bo Ringholm (S) (2002-2010)
      Mauricio Rojas (FP) (2002-2006)
      Gabriel Romanus (FP) (2002-2006)
      Nyamko Sabuni (FP) (2002-2006)
      Börje Vestlund (S) (2002-present)
      Inger Nordlander (S) (2004-2006)

      Jan Björklund (FP) (2006-present)
      Gustav Blix (M) (2006-present)
      Per Bolund (MP) (2006-2010, 2011-present)
      Sebastian Cederschiöld (M) (2006)
      Louise Edlind-Friberg (FP) (2006)
      Fredrick Federley (C) (2006-present)
      Johan Forssell (M) (2006, 2010-present)
      Carl B. Hamilton (FP) (2006-present)
      Göran Hägglund (KD) (2006-present)
      Mats Johansson (M) (2006-present)
      Carin Jämtin (S) (2006)
      Mehmet Kaplan (MP) (2006-present)
      Anna König Jerlmyr (M) (2006-2010)
      Mats G. Nilsson (M) (2006-2010)
      Sten Nordin (2006-2008)
      Fredrik Reinfeldt (M) (2006-present)
      Helena Rivière (M) (2006-2010)
      Åsa Romson (MP) (2006, 2010-present)
      Solveig Ternström (C/Independent) (2006-2010)
      Maria Wetterstrand (MP) (2006-2011)
      Pernilla Zethraeus (V) (2006-2008)
      Sofia Arkelsten (M) (2007-present)
      Amineh Kakabaveh (V) (2008-2010)
      Reza Khelili Dylami (M) (2008-2010)

      Maria Abrahamsson (M) (2010-present)
      Amir Adan (M) (2010-present)
      Josefin Brink (V) (2010-present)
      Andreas Carlgren (C) (2010-2011)
      Robert Halef (KD) (2010-present)
      Arhe Hamednaca (S) (2010-present)
      Jens Holm (V) (2010-present)
      Ylva Johansson (S) (2010-present)
      David Lång (Sweden Democrat/SD) (2010-present)
      Jessica Rosencrantz (2010-present)
      Mona Sahlin (S) (2010-2011)
      HG Wessberg (M) (2010)
      Abir Al-Sahlani (C) (2011-present)
      Teres Lindberg (S) (2011-present)

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 02:20:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here's me (pretty easy...) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Gygaxian

      NM-01: Manuel Lujan (R), Steven Schiff (R), Heather Wilson (R), Martin Heinrich (D), Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D)

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 27 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 02:53:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here goes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      MD-01: Roy Dyson, Wayne Gilchrest
      VA-02: Thelma Drake, Glenn Nye, Scott Rigell
      VA-03: Bobby Scott
      NY-13: Charlie Rangel

    •  My list is relatively simple (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      CT-03: Rosa DeLauro
      CT-02: Sam Gejdenson, Rob Simmons, Joe Courtney
      ME-02: Mike Michaud
      ME-01: Chellie Pingree (note: I did not move in Maine)

      So the only Republican to ever represent me is Rob Simmons.

      For the first 17 years of my life, I had the same two Senators: Dodd and Lieberman. Since then, I've had four more: Blumenthal, Snowe, Collins, and King.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 07:07:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And down the ballot (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        My State Senators:
        William Aniskovich (R) - south-central CT
        Tony Guglielmo (R) - northeast CT
        Tom Martin (R) - my college in ME
        Colleen Lachowicz (D) - my college in ME, defeated Martin in 2012

        So I hadn't had a Democratic State Senator until December last year.

        My State Representatives:
        Mary Mushinsky (D) - south-central CT
        Mike Cardin (D) - my town and 2 others in NE CT
        Bryan Hurlburt (D) - succeeded Cardin after he retired, same district
        Henry Beck (D) - my college in ME

        So I've never had a Republican State Representative.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 07:13:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  My List (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      I'll start with 1992 because that was the first Congressional election I could vote in, even though I registered in 1991:

      CA-25 Buck McKeon (R)
      CA-05 Bob Matsui (D)
      PA-15 Pat Toomey (I worked on a race that tried to defeat him)
      CA-13 Pete Stark (D)
      CA-05 Bob Matsui (D)
      OR-03 Earl Blumenauer (D)
      WA-07 Jim McDermott (D)
      FL-06 Cliff Stearns (R)
      VA-08 Jim Moran (D)

    •  Okay... I've never been happy with my reps. (4+ / 0-)

      1985:  NC-3 - Charles O. Whitley (D) (Lived there for two weeks, cause my family moved right after I was born.)

      1985-1990: VA-6 - James R. Olin (DINO I think)

      1990-2003: VA-1 - Herbert Bateman (R) and Jo Ann Davis (R)

      2003-2004: VA-9 - Rick Boucher (D)

      2004-2005/2008-now: VA-4 - Randy Forbes (R)

      2005-2008: NC-7 - Mike McIntyre (DINO)

    •  This is fun! (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, BeninSC, Skaje, MichaelNY

      GA-06: Newt Gingrich (R)
      MA-04: Barney Frank (D)
      MD-08: Chris Van Hollen (D)
      TX-25: Lloyd Doggett (D)
      TX-21: Lamar Smith (R)
      TX-25: Lloyd Doggett (D)
      MD-06 (redistricted from MD-08): John Delaney (D)
      NY-14: Carolyn Maloney (D)
      MD-06: John Delaney (D)
      I also spent this past summer in NC-05, unfortunately Virginia Foxx's district.

      23-year old gay environmentalist. MD-06.

      by Stephen N on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:13:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Mine (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1993-1996: Gary Ackerman
      1996-2003: Peter King
      2003-Pres: Steve Israel

      For College:
      2011-2013: Maurice Hinchey
      2013-Pres: Tom Reed

      NY-03 (Home), NY-23 (College)

      by epez21 on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 12:33:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow I've actually had only one (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, psychicpanda, Skaje

      Rodney Frelinghuysen 4 lyfe

      Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

      by interstate73 on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 05:59:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Short list for me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      MO-08: Bill Emerson (R), Jo Ann Emerson (R)
      MO-04: Vicky Hartzler (R)

      26, male, Dem, born and raised in MO-08, currently living in MO-04.

      by ModernDayWarrior on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 08:17:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A couple spots missing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Who represented Astoria and Elmhurst (in NYC) during the 1990's? I've tried looking it up before, but it's not that easy; best I could find was I think Elmhurst might have been in Gary Ackerman's district?

      But after that:
      Steve Rothman
      Pat Tiberi
      Donald Payne
      Emanuel Cleaver
      ...and now, worst of all, Scott Garrett.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:01:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My list is fairly short: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      TN-05 (1990-2003): Bob Clement (D-Nashville)
      TN-05 (2003-2008): Jim Cooper (D-Nashville)
      WI-02 (2008-2013): Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)
      WI-02 (2013): Mark Pocan (D-Madison)

      Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:04:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My list: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Lindy Boggs, (D) LA-02 (1986-1989)
      Richard Baker, (R) LA-06 (1989-2008)
      Don Cazayoux, (D) LA-06 (2008)
      Bill Cassidy, (R) LA-06 (2009-2011)
      Al Green, (D) TX-09 (2011)
      John Culberson, (R) TX-07 (2012-present)

      I've never been redistricted to a new representative, although the last apartment I had in Baton Rouge is now in LA-02.

      27, Cajun guy married to a better guy, TX-07 by way of LA-06

      by Phaedrus Says What on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:14:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Mine: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      MI-02: Carl Pursell (R)- 1987-93
      MI-11: Joe Knollenberg (R)- 1993-2003
      MI-11: Thaddeus McCotter (R)- 1993-2012
      MI-13: John Conyers (D)- 2012-present

    •  Okay (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      1989-1994: Lloyd Doggett (Dem, TX-10)
      1994-2001: Joe Skeen (Rep, NM-2)
      2001-2005: Lloyd Doggett (Dem, TX-10)
      2005-2008: Michael McCaul (Rep, TX-10)
      2008-2011: Ciro Rodriguez (Dem, TX-23)
      2011-2013: Quico Canseco (Rep, TX-23)
      2013: Joaquin Castro (Dem, TX-20)

      Note that I've lived in the same exact dorm room (they're more like apartments here at my university than traditional dorms) for both my undergraduate and graduate studies since 2008. The lines changed, I did not.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:30:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Texas seems a bit special that way (0+ / 0-)

        they can't just draw a gerrymander that will pass muster and be done with it.

        Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

        by fearlessfred14 on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 03:03:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Mine: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      FL-22: Clay Shaw
      IL-01: Bobby Rush
      MI-15: John Dingell
      NY-08: Jerrold Nadler
      NY-14: Carolyn Maloney before redistricting, now Joe Crowley.

      30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

      by The Caped Composer on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 04:35:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Late to the game (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But this was too fun to pass up!

      OH-20: Mary Rose Oakar (D)
      TX-09: Jack Fields (R)
      TX-09: Kevin Brady (R)
      LA-06: Don Cazayoux (D)
      LA-06: Bill Cassidy (R)
      LA-02: Cedric Richmond (D)

      I might be adding a new one to the list from out west next month...

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 03:06:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    When Boehner caves, there may be an attempt to remove him as speaker by the teabaggers.  I'm not sure how easy this process is.

    The question here is what is the best strategy for the Ds.  Should the Ds support the overthrow of Boehner, or should they offer to prop Boehner up in exchange for concessions (i.e. vote on immigration).  On one hand a bloody fight may well result in helping the Ds politically in the House.  OTOH, propping Boehner up may result in getting some legislative priorities through.  

    Of course the most likely scenario in this situation is that Boehner resigns on his own, but it's a situation worth considering for the Ds whether they want to help Boehner out.

  •  NY Times article on Boehner's strategy (11+ / 0-)

    or lack of strategy.

    They are only trying to survive another day, Republican strategists say, hoping to maintain unity as long as possible so that when the Republican position collapses, they can capitulate on two issues at once — financing the government and raising the debt ceiling — and head off any internal party backlash. Republican lawmakers say Mr. Boehner has assured them privately that he will not permit a default.

    That's a pretty honest, and if you are a Dem, optimistic assessment of Boehner's predicament.

    I mean, if true, it just telegraphs to Dems they need to wait it out(and keep pushing for a clean CR) until the 16th. Hopefully, the polling holds up for Dems until then, or better yet, Boehner decides on a clean CR earlier.

  •  The GOP has lost even Utah on the shutdown (5+ / 0-)

    Sort of.

    56% don't think the shutdown over Obamacare/the ACA was worth it, and 20% say it's the fault of the GOP, and only 21% say it's President Obama's fault. 41% say it's both parties fault, so Utahns seem to have moved on to "a pox on both your houses". Mike Lee himself has a 43% approval rating and a 35% disapproval rating.

    Oddly, Jim Matheson has a 57% approval rating and 29% disapproval rating, even though he voted with the Republicans on all the shutdown-related legislation. I just don't get it.

    Technically, this isn't electoral, but it's a good sign of outrage over the shutdown, and potentially a good sign for Matheson. Could even be a good sign for Luz Robles, if she can hammer Chris Stewart in UT-02 over this.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 11:29:58 PM PDT

    •  I want Matheson to have high favorables (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, MichaelNY

      Do you think this will make him have more teflon against Love again next year?

      27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

      by IndyLiberal on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 06:54:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very likely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Since everyone knows full well that Mia Love would've just been a lockstep Republican on the shutdown (of course, Matheson has been the same, but y'know, perception and all that). Matheson will probably deliver hammer blows to her campaign by bringing forward a small army of Utahns who have been hurt by the shutdown, and pointing out specific (probably Utah-based) programs that were damaged by the shutdown, connecting her to Congressional Republicans.

        At least, that would be the same style of tactics he used last time, when he demolished Love by pointing out the real-life effects of her various proposals to defund/repeal federal departments.

        Realistically, besides a food stamps vote earlier this year, he's been voting a lot with the Republicans, so Mia Love will have very little to hit him on. She has a campaign manager who's the stuff of Utah legend, so she'll be better prepared this time, but then again, Matheson himself is the stuff of Utah legend.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 07:24:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Running against the shutdown (0+ / 0-)

          How is that going to be credible for Matheson, given his vote?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 04:41:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Honestly? I don't know (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            At the moment, few people seem to know that Matheson voted with the Republicans on all the post-shutdown bills. It's sunk in that Republicans are to blame (but Utahns are partisan enough that they've gone to a "pox on both houses" stance, like I said), but Matheson seems to be teflon so far. Well, except among some of the progressive Utah crowd. His shutdown votes have positively enraged them (and me, I guess, since I associate with them). They're talking about a primary challenge again, just like 2010. I'll spare you my thoughts, since I've made it obvious long before now.

            Matheson's already pivoted towards claiming that he has a solution to the shutdown (clean CR for six months in exchange for the repeal of the medical device tax and a "few small tweaks"). I have no idea whether that will work or not, but as long as he doesn't piss off too many Democratic convention delegates, he should be fine. Even then, he won the primary in 2010, so he's probably good for another cycle. Mia Love is stronger than his 2010 GOP opponent, but then again, Matheson basically gets stronger in the general election every time he wins one.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 08:07:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Jim Matheson (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Gygaxian

      is one of the most impressively resilient politicians in recent times.  Sometimes he votes with Democrats, sometimes he votes with Republicans, but one thing is constant...he is always massively popular, and winning conservative voters no matter how the GOP tries to mangle his district.

      •  This is true (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        What percentage of all Utahns has Matheson represented at some point in his House career?

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:34:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  All but UT-01's unchanged area and eastern Utah (0+ / 0-)

          over his three changed districts. He's definitely represented most of the population though.

          It'd be nice if he could figure out how to trade a number of conservative voters for an equal number of liberal voters, and thus vote a bit more liberal, but at this point I'm more concerned with the state legislature than Congress. If Matheson feels that he has to vote like Mia Love would've voted, that's his business. I give up.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:34:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Had to post this Dead song (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    You said "long strange week" which clicked in my brain.

    It reminded me of "Lately it occurs to me, what a long strange trip it's been." Thanks for reminding me of the song. Here's the Grateful Dead:

    "Stupid just can't keep its mouth shut." -- SweetAuntFanny's grandmother.

    by Dbug on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 12:09:34 AM PDT

  •  what do y'all think are the chances that (0+ / 0-)

    1) senate republicans filibuster a clean debt ceiling raise; and 2) senate democrats say fuck it and nuke the filibuster once and for all? if there's a time to do it, it would be now. if the shutdown is about ending the GOP's ability to take hostages, why not take away all their tools?

  •  Turnout will favor Republicans next year (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen

    Prompted by a query from MichaelNY I looked into presidential and midterm drop-off over the last decade. It isn't pretty.

    The first number is the percentage of the electorate in the exit poll over the age of 45 followed by the number who were white and then the number of women. Age, race and gender is far more reliable than selective party identification. Quite sobering I think.

    2004
    54% 77% 54%

    2006
    63% 79% 51%

    2008
    53% 74% 53%

    2010
    64% 77% 52%

    2012
    54% 72% 53%

    I think that suggests a best case scenario for 2014 as 63% over 45, 74% white and 52% female.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 05:18:55 AM PDT

  •  25 years ago today (6+ / 0-)

    And he's still no Jack Kennedy:

  •  Jay Carney yesterday (9+ / 0-)

    Q    But the Speaker is saying that he wants some commitment on deficit reduction further, in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.  I understand you're opposed to any kind of negotiations on that.  I mean, could we have a situation -- the Cuban Missile Crisis ended with a secret deal to move some missiles out of Turkey six months after the Russians pulled the nukes out of Cuba.  I mean, can you have some kind of an agreement that you'll act on --

    MR. CARNEY:  Are you saying that John Boehner is Khrushchev?  (Laughter.)

    Q    I don’t know who's Khrushchev and who's Kennedy on this.

    MR. CARNEY:  I'm pretty sure who the President is.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 06:21:13 AM PDT

  •  King repeats Stutzman's gaffe (11+ / 0-)
    "We don't know how this is going to emerge," he says. "We don't know what kinds of demands we're going to have."
    From this NPR interview: http://www.npr.org/...

    H/t: http://www.dailykos.com/...

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 07:08:20 AM PDT

  •  house to vote today to give furloughed employees (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY, LordMike

    back pay. It's expected to pass the senate and be signed by Obama.

    I'm curious how many republicans will vote for this. I expect many to vote against because they will view it as given them a paid vacation for the remainder of the shutdown. From what I understand, though, fed employees will only be reimbursed after the shutdown is over. Until then, they're on their own. Also, it doesn't help federal contractors like me who simply are not allowed to work and earn a paycheck and won't be given any compensation.

  •  New Diary! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tayya, KingofSpades, itskevin, BeloitDem

    My long-delayed final diary in my series on Maine's political geography is out.

    It presents a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander if the Maine State Senate, and explains why such a map would be effective in electing more Democrats.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 07:17:04 AM PDT

  •  Given David's video request (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    And the anniversary referenced above I wonder if people might like to share their favorite debate moments.

    "Please proceed..."

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:27:36 AM PDT

  •  Ridiculous Song of the Week (0+ / 0-)

    I meant to post this week. Is this a modern day "Baby Got Back"? I think it might.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:34:26 AM PDT

  •  Ireland votes to keep the Seanad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, KingofSpades

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:14:00 AM PDT

  •  OR ballot measure: conservatives have (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    collected about 73,000 signatures to put a referendum on the ballot next year to overturn the law allowing undocumented people to get temporary driver's licenses. They need about 58,000 valid ones. We'll see.

    link

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:29:51 AM PDT

  •  Harry Reid's 13 Bluntest Quotes (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    A lot of them I got a handful of chuckles out of.

    http://www.newrepublic.com/...

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:41:20 AM PDT

  •  Senior GOP House member floats plan (7+ / 0-)

    to CNN of a six week CR and six week debt ceiling raise.

    The CR it looks like would be clean.

    I think a lot of liberals might groan at a 6 week debt ceiling raise, but Dems havent been as specific on how long the debt ceiling should be raised. I guess the feeling is if they cave on that, it's going to be hard to refuse another lift in six weeks.

    Who knows if this plan is the one that goes forward, but the GOP is clearly trying to look for a way out.

    link.

    •  Can that pass the House without Democratic votes? (9+ / 0-)

      If not I would hold out for longer.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 01:09:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  GOP just hopes they can get better frame war (5+ / 0-)

      footing in six weeks.  Senate Dems signed off on what a four week clean CR though, so they'd agree to that.  But the six week debt ceiling thing is crap - get rid of it completely.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 01:12:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Basically the shutdown being about the ACA (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        is a loser for them.   They want six weeks to recast the budget battle as a debt/deficit battle - so if they force a shutdown again it will be because the Dems won't make enough needed cuts.  

        I wonder if as part of any "Grand Bargain" Pres Obama demands permanent changes to how the debt ceiling is raised so that it goes up automatically unless Congress votes to block the raise - and then the President could veto that block unless they had 2/3rds vote to block the raise in the House and Senate (ie they never would).  I think the GOP might realize that they can't use this again without looking wholly reckless because Obama ain't budging and moderates/corporatists in the GOP want to neuter the tea party extremists by taking away this tool.  If this is part of a larger agreement it could get largely lost in the details.  I just hope the President doesn't accept this as a huge compromise and gives up something big in return - this is simply a good government issue.  

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 01:22:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I can't believe enough Democrats in tough seats (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        Would vote for this automatically to cover defections on the right. Republicans don't seem to see they'd probably get more of what they want if they went through the proper channels.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 01:28:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I can't imagine (5+ / 0-)

      that the crazy caucus would go for this.

    •  I think non-starter (8+ / 0-)

      The debt ceiling is going to have to be a year, completely off the table for the year-long approps negotiation.

      The CR is already 6 weeks, that's no change.

      Dems won't tolerate debt ceiling brinkmanship in 6 weeks again, so why permit this now?

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 03:12:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, MichaelNY, LordMike

        but as I note, you could argue that the 6 week debt ceiling lift is a sign they wont use that for brinkmanship. That this is, effectively, them blinking.

        But as I said, I agree, I think Dems should demand more.

        •  The pressure on Reid to pass it (5+ / 0-)

          Would be huge. The position has always been re-open the government without conditions and raise the debt ceiling then we'll talk. This plan would meet that criteria. If this is really what they go with it might need the crazy caucus to come through again to scupper it.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 03:53:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I also don't see the downside for us (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY, jj32, itskevin

            I think we want the CR and the debt ceiling to come up at the same time since it both makes a default less likely (since Republicans only have to swallow one tough vote) and puts the Republicans on weaker ground politically (since the public doesn't understand the debt ceiling and is more outraged by the potential of a shutdown).

            It's certainly possible that the Republicans decide to come back and try this again, but I think it's more likely that they go for some sort of face-saving fig-leaf instead (like they did earlier in the year with the no-budget no-pay resolution).

            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 04:01:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You guys are very mistaken, big downsides (7+ / 0-)

              There are actually big downsides for everyone in this, for Obama and Democrats, for America, and even for Boehner and the transactional wing of his party.

              A 6-week debt ceiling hike signals the GOP wanting to hold it hostage again for the next 6 weeks.  If they didn't want to hold it hostage, they wouldn't do a 6-week hike, they'd do at least a year.  That's exactly what Obama insists on destroying now once and for all.

              A 6-week hike also is bad for Boehner and his fellow transactional conservatives, because every debt ceiling fight is a headache for them, moreso now that Obama and Reid have dug in, so Boehner et al. really get stuck between a rock and a hardplace.  It would be easier for Boehner politically to go back to the old way of fighting the wingnuts' battles through the normal year-long appropriation battle.  The playing field is level there, and the public always agrees with some (never all) of the conservatives' views on spending levels, priorities, and taxes.

              A 6-week debt ceiling hike is bad for Boehner for another reason, that it's not enough time to do the full-year approps that would succeed the 6-week CR.  The divisions between the parties are so stark, they just won't get resolved that fast.  Our side demands sequestration partially or wholly repealed, and revenues in exchange for any other spending cuts.  The GOP rejects taxes no matter what.  The GOP demands sequestration traded only for entitlement cuts, with no taxes, and then other further spending cuts.  Those things are non-starters for Dems.

              Even if the two sides abandon trying to modify sequestration, the appropriation level will be fought over.  Dems will want more than last year, the GOP less.  They could abandon both and stop with carryover of FY13 levels, but I doubt Dems will accept that.

              All this will take more than 6 weeks to sort out specifically because the GOP can't agree with themselves what they want and what they're willing to give up in exchange for it.  They're trying to do that right now on a nonsensical "grand bargain" that is a joke, nothing but conservative priorities while giving up nothing.

              So this 6-week business is a terrible idea.

              Better to have a debt ceiling hike for at least a year, and then after the CR expires just do another clean one for however many more weeks until a full-year approps can be reached.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 05:56:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Do you think Dems will suffer politically (0+ / 0-)

                if they reject a 6-week CR+debt ceiling hike?

                •  I don't think it's possible that they'd reject it (3+ / 0-)

                  Get the government open, and on to the next thing. If the Republicans want to continually create crises, I don't think it will hurt the Democrats politically, now that the media seems to have decisively turned against the Republicans' bullshit.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 07:02:41 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  At outset they'd warn Boehner & speak out... (4+ / 0-)

                    ...publicly against it, but if that's all there is on the night of October 16th, they probably would sign it if it's clean, no concessions.

                    But they'd make clear this just means more brinkmanship 6 weeks later, and again the next hike must be clean, no strings.  If appropriations aren't resolved at the end of the 6 weeks, then another clean CR and clean debt ceiling hike are necessary.

                    Any concessions of any kind are forever verboten for CRs or debt ceiling hikes.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 07:23:52 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  And moreover if they're not willing to shoot (5+ / 0-)

                    the hostage now, everyone knows that they won't be willing to shoot the hostage two months from now either. If they don't signal a willingness to default now their leverage will be lost forever and for always. A six week increase is essentially just one of the cheapest fig-leafs we could give to Boehner. Effectively, he'll promise to his crazies to fight again in six weeks, but in fact he'll settle for something totally symbolic like he did earlier in the year.

                    Republican economic hostage taking will end not with a bang (a default) but with a wimper (a series of increasingly deescalated crises).

                    27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                    by okiedem on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 08:15:13 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Very good point (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, itskevin

                      You're right, it does still call his bluff as long as there are no strings.

                      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 08:34:43 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, itskevin

                        Besides, a double shutdown this year will hurt them.

                        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                        by KingofSpades on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 08:39:27 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  You can't trust they'll avoid it! (6+ / 0-)

                          Boehner didn't want THIS shutdown!

                          He can't control his caucus, and he's terrified of allowing a vote on anything that doesn't have a strong majority of R votes.

                          I'll be surprised at this point if we don't have a second shutdown before the midterms, either this year or next year.

                          Boehner might be able to corral his caucus to accept a second CR after caving on this one.  That would avoid a shutdown so soon.  But reaching an approps deal is a very heavy lift, even after a second CR.

                          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:09:21 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                •  They would (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  And deservedly so because it contradicts their stated position both in public and private. If House Republicans pass it Reid will have to go along. But if Boehner needs Democrats to help then there is leverage to get a better deal.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:23:11 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I agree with okiedem (4+ / 0-)

            I dont see this bill as being a problem for Dems.

            I have hard time seeing GOP coming back six weeks later and going through with default. Especially when you even have Boehner saying now that he wont let that happen on Oct 17th.

            Like I said, I would demand more, maybe even start off asking for some permanent lifting of the debt ceiling along the lines of the McConnell plan.

            But if we had to settle for this, I dont think that will be an issue.

      •  Timing would put both around Dec 15th... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        GOP really wants to be fighting to slash entitlements to shutdown government or default on the debt if they don't get what they want in the near peak of the Christmas season/shopping season?

        GOP seem to be focusing on the middle of December though, so they obviously have something up their sleeves on it.  I'd guess they figure the Dems would be blamed for any shutdown, as they feel they have the upper hand in demanding spending cuts.  

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 04:19:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  House Republicans' soup du jour (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, LordMike

      Tomorrow it'll be another 'plan' in progress, just as it was yesterday, and the day before that, and...

      "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

      by Coco Usagi on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 03:41:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  six weeks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      six weeks would be sufficiant to bring the next crisis after this years November election.

      What will happein in VQ if the govt is still shut down early November

  •  Does anyone know where to find... (0+ / 0-)

    House leadership election vote tallies? I'm curious about how close these internal elections were, but I only seem to be able to find results for Boehner and Pelosi.

    Eg. Boehner won over Blunt by 122-109 to become the GOP leader, Pelosi over Harold Ford Jr. by 177-29 to become the Dem leader.

    I've searched on Wikipedia, Ballotapedia, and the wider internet and come up with very little.

  •  Please pay us (9+ / 0-)

    My friend working in the National Weather Service directed me to this...

    Please pay us.

    As NWS meteorologists are considered essential personnel, they have to work without pay. Imagine if Sandy hit the east coast 1 year later. Some mets worked for 16 hours a day.  

  •  How is this playing in VA so far? (4+ / 0-)

    Is the CW there that the GOP is to blame and Cooch looks bad for campaigning with Cruz today?

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 03:49:44 PM PDT

  •  VA-GOV: Cuccinelli spoke with Ted Cruz (8+ / 0-)

    backstage at their event today. Asked him to work with Dems to end the shutdown, according to Peter Hamby of CNN.

  •  Is there a path for the Rs without Hispanics (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    in the Electoral College?  Without any improvement among Hispanics, any chance at Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado are gone.  Also the large growth of Hispanics in Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania makes those states difficult for the Rs going forward.

    So a non-Hispanic strategy focused on winning white working class requires the Rs to hold all teh Romney states and add Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire, which is a total of 270.  And that includes holding on to North Carolina, which is difficult given the demographic trends.

    •  Nate Silver wrote a post on this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, TeaBaggersAreRacists

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 06:59:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe for the next few elections, depending (0+ / 0-)

      on what sort of states we're talking about, but it's quickly becoming harder and harder for them.

      What's important to emphasize is that we're talking about a situation where continued improvement might not be enough. It's not hard to think Republicans might get, say, 40 percent of the voters in these states overall with some changes to how they campaign. That's still a big advantage for Democrats, however, and it gets more pronounced every time the electorate gets a little bit less white. I don't know want to say they necessarily need to win this group to win overall, at least not for the next few cycles, but they almost certainly need to come close. And if they hit what appears to be a ceiling soon, well...

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:16:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  they seemed to hit their ceiling with W. (0+ / 0-)

        and now that Cubans seem to be shifting, I don't think they have a realistic hope to turn things around short of a realignment.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:48:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe not, but part of our problem (0+ / 0-)

          is that they don't always turnout in equal numbers to their overall population. I guess what I am saying is, they might--might--be able to tape the well of the white voters and eke out a win within the next few elections, but even if they do, it'll likely be a grinding, brutal fight, where they might need an overall favorable cycle. I suspect that our side and groups affiliated with it will be more amped up in the future even if we don't have favorable conditions, as we and they sense the wind is at our backs, making it harder and harder for them.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:01:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Voter turnout is a problem among Hispanics (0+ / 0-)

            Although given their income and education, low-income Hispanics vote only slightly less than whites of similar income and education.  The difference is that there are a lot fewer Hispanics proportionally who have higher income/education.

            And blacks, well, they vote in numbers far greater numbers than their income and education.  To put in perspective, black turnout was slightly greater than white turnout in 2012.  And that is considering that blacks have far less income and education, and are far more .  I wouldn't be surprised if low-income black turnout is almost double what it is for whites and others.

            http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  CA-GOP: They're having their biannual convention (7+ / 0-)

    this weekend in Anaheim, and look what showed up at one of their vendors in the lobby:

    https://twitter.com/...

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 08:49:30 PM PDT

  •  Maffei (NY-24). (6+ / 0-)

    Was looking over the results from the last presidential election in his district, and there was actually improvement from 2008 to 2012. Obama won by 14 in 2008, but by 16 in 2012. The most similar district in partisanship in New York is NY-17 held by progressive Nita Lowey. Obama won by 17 in 2008, but by 15 in 2012. Maffei's district is slightly more Democratic than Carolyn McCarthy's district and slightly more Republican than Louise Slaughter's and Paul Tonko's.

    D+6 is right about where it should be nigh impossible for a Democrat to lose. For example, John Tierney (MA-06) represents a D+7 district. Maffei's district is zooming left fast enough that it can support a member of the progressive caucus.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:47:38 PM PDT

  •  PPP polls Congress for MoveOn.org (15+ / 0-)

    And the results aren't pretty for the GOP.

    http://front.moveon.org/...

    Let's ignore the push poll questions, as they are practically useless, and focus on the approval ratings and head-to-heads against Generic D - these are asked first and shouldn't be affected by any loaded questions.

    Dan Benishek in MI-01 trails 35-56. Holy Christ. That should really be the outlier of the pack, there should statistically be one.

    Bentivolio is also very much in danger, but he'll get tossed in the primary, and Gary Miller doesn't look very good either, trailing 39-48.

    Mike Coffman and Tim Walberg are down by 8, Bill Young down 5 (WHAT.), Southerland and Steve King are down 4, Latham, Meehan, Duffy and Barr are down 3, Webster, Davis, Gibson, Joyce and Fitzpatrick are down by 1 or 2. Valadao, Bill Johnson, Rigell, Heck and Grimm all lead Generic D.

    I have not done a demographic analysis is the polls, but it is possible that they are too generous with turnout demographics-wise. But still.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:46:46 AM PDT

    •  Retirements would help (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, askew

      Buck McKeon, Ed Royce, John Mica, Bill Young, Fred Upton, Frank LoBiondo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, John Kline, Peter King, Richard Hanna, Randy Forbes, Frank Wolf and Dave Reichert are all over 60, might be unbeatable as incumbents but sit in at least Obama 2012 47% seats.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:59:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Huh. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, madmojo, MichaelNY, askew

      Maybe Sestak should switch to challenge Meehan, and then run for Senate in 2016. Half-joking.

      Weird list. It seems that the more Democratic districts are more supportive of the incumbents. Their opponents must challenge their undeserved moderate profiles.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:53:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope the general takes advantage of this anger (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      against Benishek. We could really use that district.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:56:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Polls like these (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      could really help with late recruiting, especially in races tat were previously considered out of reach. I hope Steve Israel's working the phone fierce.

    •  That is a beautiful MI-01 poll. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

      Just beautiful. That general running against Benishek needs to ramp up his campaign so we can take that seat.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:40:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  House is in Play. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, MichaelNY, askew

      16 out of 21 GOP incumbents are in real danger - just not the ones we would necessarily expect.

      1) Benishek is not necessarily the outlier. In the CA-21 poll (Valadao), there was plurality support for the tea party, which is astounding. That's nearly impossible for a swingy district. That could just as easily be "the outlier."

      2) They are not push polls. They test the message that these incumbents are the cause of the government shutdown. MoveOn wanted to see how effective that attack is, so it is not worthless at all - especially if Democrats do indeed unite around this attack on Republican incumbents in the House.

      3)Demographics seem pretty solid. The poll in CA-21 was barely majority minority, and in PA-07 it was 88% White. Very close to expected turnout - maybe a bit too White in CA-21 and not White enough in PA-07, but the internal demographics are so close to reality that they should not be used to discredit the polls.

      4) Bentivolio is a sucky incumbent, but he could very easily win his primary anyway. It is way too early to dismiss his ability to win a primary.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:19:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We're going to have some major dropoff... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, James Allen, MichaelNY

        In Latino turnout in CA-21. That district will be hard to win next year.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:42:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje

          But sometimes we cannot be sure if it's midterm Latino dropoff or the inability of pollsters to find actual factual voting Latinos. Some of the stranger polls results come from Latino-heavy districts in Nevada and California - places with polling accuracy problems and turnout problems.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:04:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  House is NOT in play YET (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, itskevin

        This is shutdown anger.  Problem is, there's no federal election this November 5th.  In Virginia where I am, a Dem wave is possible in next month's election, although still no sign of momentum for us in the targeted House of Delegates races.  But it's early, the shutdown is still less than a week old and the election still 4 weeks away.

        In the midterms, today's polling is meaningless.  What's meaningful is if the GOP keeps repeating this shit over and over and over again.  As President Obama said in an interview this week, "they have a crisis every three months.  Do you notice that?"  If there is repeated brinkmanship next year on appropriations and debt ceilings and more shutdowns and threats of default, at some point voters tire and throw out the GOP and give us the House.  We're nowhere near that point yet.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:05:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This poll show that it is. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "In play" means that Democrats could win the House. I have little time for the "it's too early for polls" argument, particularly when it is not all that early. In reality this is the ideal time for this all to occur - for candidate recruitment, to coordinate party messaging, for early fundraising, etc. If this all happened in 6 months, Democrats may not have been able to take full advantage. By then we might have been stuck with lousy candidates incapable of taking advantage of the situation.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:19:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It is in fact all that early (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            It's not too early for any of those tasks you lay out, no.

            But it's way too early to trust any polling.

            This is in the heat of the shutdown, it's not indicative of anything.  I bet if you polled around Christmas 1995 there would've been a lot of House Rs who looked like dead ducks but then ended up winning the next November.

            Polling this early counts for something only if it's sustained over months.  We haven't seen that yet, and of course we wouldn't because this turning point just happened a week ago.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:13:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I love it when PPP... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, sapelcovits, MichaelNY, askew

      Delivers us a basket of candy on the weekend.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:40:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Mostly fast food polling, but still indicative (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      of the political risks, particularly of turning a midterm from a soft net GOP year into a soft net Dem year (or better if they screw up epically).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:48:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  These poll numbers look good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      But they aren't wholly indicative of what will happen in a year. This still encourages some good recruitment for these races though, which as whole, still helps out.

      If these numbers hold, however, I could see us grabbing some seats that no one saw coming, including my own CA-49 (South OC all the way down the coast to UCSD).  Cook rates this district at an R+4, and I think R+4 or R+5 would be the upper limits of what we could win in ancestrally republican areas.

      I'm excited to see how our candidate list fills up.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home)

      by Ryan Dack on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:37:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It would have been nice (3+ / 0-)

      If MoveOn had PPP actually test the named opponents for the districts who have them.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 02:16:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think that would be informative at (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, wwmiv, MichaelNY, askew

        this point since the names probably would have had near zero name recognition at this point. Definitely agree that generic D inflates our numbers in most instances but I think naming a zero name recognition candidate would be even less informative.

        27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 02:19:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Paul Ryan's Plan, Sequestration, the CR (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    So I was reading a comment on Jon Chait's blog and someone made the point that discretionary spending is already only barely above what it was in the Ryan plan. Is that true? If so, WOW, I didn't realize that at all.

    Kinda makes you wonder just what Republicans really think can be cut before their districts start feeling the squeeze.

    Also, what are the chances that this might be reversed to some degree? People have speculated Democrats could fight for this and win, but to completely reverse sequestration?

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:07:59 AM PDT

    •  Best case (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      They put something on the floor such as described by Robert Costa a couple days ago that includes chained CPI, means testing, repeal of the medical device tax and deficit neutral tax reform. That gets them on record. Then Obama says no because you are offering no new revenue while cutting entitlements all while increasing the deficit by not offsetting cost.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:21:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, sure, but I'm talking about discretionary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        spending. One of the big problems with the Ryan plan was that it cut this stuff so thoroughly that it's kind of hard to grasp. Is this your way of saying I'm going to be disappointed?

        I also wonder how much getting them on record matters. We had them on record for all sorts of unpopular shit and it seems to have made no difference. Maybe now because people are paying attention, it'll be different.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:53:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Boehner's rhetoric isnt changing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

    Reading about the interview he did this morning, he said a clean CR doesnt have the votes in the House(which seems clearly wrong), and he will not put forward a clean debt limit increase.

    If the NY Times article from a few days is accurate, that the GOP is waiting to cave, Boehner is giving no indication of that.

    •  To be clear, I'm not saying (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      Dems should shift strategy at all.

      If anything, Boehner's rhetoric makes it harder for Dems to negotiate.

      But this looks like it's going to get much worse(especially for the economy) before it gets better.

    •  dems need to demand that boehner put a clean (5+ / 0-)

      debt limit increase up for a vote and show us that there aren't the votes for it.

    •  i really think he will let the US default (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      i see no reason to believe that republicans understand the consequences of their actions and care enough about the welfare of the american people to back down.

      •  I think (hope?) Pres Obama has a Plan B... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Paleo, BeloitDem

        Where he'll unilaterally raise it and forever remove it as an issue in Congress.  Sure he'll probably be impeached by the House, but the executive debt ceiling raise legality will end up in the Supreme Court and will support the Presidential decision IMO because of the corporatists in the Conservative wing.

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:10:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can't think we'll get that far. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PorridgeGun, MichaelNY

          The shutdown isn't a big deal for most businesses right now, but a default almost certainly would be. It's clear who is threatening to go down that path, and they'll have people breathing down their necks because of it, to put it lightly. There are some that are probably underestimating the fallout or just don't care, but there are at least a few who do care--20 or 30 or so--and when you combine them with the House Democrats, that's enough to get something passed. It might cost Boehner his job, but the bigger stain on his record will be a default.

          In some ways, this might be the best thing for us. Unless I am fouling up the procedural stuff, we can get close to the brink but fairly easily not go over it. If we get close to it, it'll be clear who is responsible. It won't be as damaging as an actual default, of course, but it will be pretty close. My guess is that this would put the House back in play pretty easily.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:18:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Boehner doesn't bring it to the floor... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            nothing Dems can do about it.  Sure they could try a Discharge Petition, but that takes time. They'd need to have one in the works already, and the if they got the signatures, it only needs to be brought to the floor within two weeks.  

            If Boehner wants to go over - let him.  Pres Obama and Dems NEED to stand firm on this.  Caving in would be worse IMO than going over because it would FOREVER change the government and legislating in America.  

            Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

            by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:25:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  If it really came to that, I think (0+ / 0-)

          Obama would do that.

          Because what would he have to lose?

          I think Dems would rally around him if there was an impeachment. And he may well think, "fine, let's let the  courts decide."

        •  My hope (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          I hope Obama stands firm.

          http://www.cnbc.com/...

          I hope the Treasury Department issues the required notice of default 24 hours before the actual default happens.

          This 24 hour notice is where to call Boehner's bluff. Issue the notice and dare him not to avert it.

          If Boehner doesn't capitulate, then default or mint a coin.

          •  Hasn't Treasury said they won't accept it? (0+ / 0-)

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:50:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  No authority to mint a coin (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ehstronghold, MichaelNY

            This platinum coin business is so much misinformation.  The power to print/coin money isn't a power over monetary supply that some think it is.

            And both the coin and the 14th Amendment are non-starters because the legal doubts around both ensure they fail economically.  Too many published liberal commentators don't get that and instead spread so much misinformation.

            The only exit is legislation.  Raise or abolish the debt ceiling, or we default.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:37:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  The coin is a non-starter (0+ / 0-)

            This platinum coin business is so much misinformation.  The power to print/coin money isn't a power over monetary supply that some think it is.

            And both the coin and the 14th Amendment are non-starters because the legal doubts around both ensure they fail economically.  Too many published liberal commentators don't get that and instead spread so much misinformation.

            The only exit is legislation.  Raise or abolish the debt ceiling, or we default.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:38:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  He needs to just that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          With the alternative being default, he'll have a majority of the people on his side.

          "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

          by Paleo on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 02:55:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Boehner has said he would not let (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        country default, that it's not worth to risk the credit of the US just to repeal ACA.

        Like I said, you look at this rhetoric, and just have to hope that that is all it is, rhetoric.

      •  It would be too painful politically (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If the debt limit doesn't increase, the interest on the debt will get prioritized before social security and Medicare.  At that point, it is definitely not worth delaying Obamacare in exchange for that kind of pain, even for the GOP.  

        It's like the GOP is trying to prove history wrong by losing control of the House in a midterm election (I don't think I"ve found an election in the past century where the House flips towards the party controlling the White House).  Not that I would mind that though.

    •  NRO's Robert Costa's tweets... (7+ / 0-)

      ...make clear that no one should take Boehner too literally or seriously.

      The one thing that Costa hasn't conveyed is what Boehner would do if on the evening of October 16th it really comes down to a clean debt ceiling hike, or default, because Dems won't give a millimeter, let alone an inch.  Of course, that is the only correct position for Democrats to take.  But Boehner seems to still not completely believe it.  He will by the end of next weekend.

      I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he does a clean CR and clean debt ceiling hike on the evening of the 16th and then announces retirement soon after.  I wouldn't be surprised if he stays and fights and tries a "Come-to-Jesus" intervention with his caucus.  But he'll surrender at the last moment before defaulting.

      If he does default, as I've written before within the past few days, he'll end up passing a clean CR immediately after default anyway.

      And that's why I think he surrenders on the night of the 16th.  He's going to look ahead to the aftermath and realize he has to surrender anyway, only after devastating political damage to his party and his own historical humiliation.  The media doesn't report on this, they report the debt ceiling politics as if the deadline is the last page of a novel, and then the story is over.  But it's not.  They still have to raise the debt ceiling even after default!  And then they get nothing and suffer massive consequences, too.

      The other thing important about this is that the legislative mechanics ensure that Boehner and House Rs are left holding the bag.  There's no way that's not the case.  Reid can do to the debt ceiling the same thing he did with the CR, which is to get cloture twice on the House bill and then strip everything but the debt ceiling hike, and pass it with a majority and kick it back.

      But unlike the CR, Boehner can't just sit on it, he has to allow the vote and let it pass.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:58:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Public administration research (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    So I'm an MPA student now. Research methods is one of my two classes this semester and we have to choose a research question for the semester. I wanted to see what the poli-sci brain trust here might suggest as interesting questions in public administration (either government or nonprofit).

    The research question itself is a pass/fail assignment, and failure is not an option - the professor will have us redo it until he's satisfied. We do have outline how we would undertake the research, but we don't actually have to do the research - other than an 8ish-page lit review due later in the semester. So I guess I'm really looking for something that would make an interesting lit review.

    I haven't really come up with any reasonable questions yet, just pondering areas I'm interested in:

    * redistricting/elections administration
    * judicial administration
    * planning/land use
    * student government
    * religious nonprofits

    Any ideas?

    “The world is dark, and light is precious. Come closer, dear reader. You must trust me. I am telling you a story.” ― Kate DiCamillo, The Tale of Despereaux

    by borodino21 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 08:06:47 AM PDT

  •  Bold New Idea from California GOP (5+ / 0-)

    Via Political Wire, we see one of the bold new ideas from the (ascendant?) Teabagger faction California's Republican Party, in the process of rebuilding itself, is...voter ID. Are they trying to see just how they can really go before seeing who might consider voting for them in the next decade or two?

    It'll be particularly interesting to see how much traction they get with this plan if Neel Kashkari, last at PIMCO and before that as a logger (or at least someone trying to build a log cabin), the Treasury Dept. official during the bailouts, runs for governor.

    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

    by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 08:06:51 AM PDT

  •  Nate Cohn tweeted yesterday that gerrymandering (6+ / 0-)

    is responsible for an extra 5-10 GOP seats in the House. That can't be right, can it?

    I'm sure folks here have calculated this out before, but here would be my most conservative estimate of the net GOP advantage from gerrymandering (i.e., the difference from what a court would have drawn), by state:

    PA +2
    OH +2
    MI +2
    WI +1
    IN +1
    VA +2
    NC +2
    SC +1
    GA +1
    FL +1
    LA +1
    TX +3

    IL -2
    MD -1

    That's a total of +16. And again that's the low end estimate - I think court maps could easily have led to another 4-6 Dem seats, especially in TX, VA, PA, and OH, and maybe FL, AL, and MS as well. So the range I would give would be 16-22 or so.

    So am I missing something? Or do I have another reason to be unimpressed by Nate Cohn's analysis?

    •  Did he give any hint to his analysis? (0+ / 0-)

      Does he consider the fact that Obama contested Indiana in 2008 but not in 2012, for instance, or is there no way to really factor that in without seeming like your thumbs are on the scales?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:39:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, it was really just an offhand remark. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Skaje, wwmiv, MichaelNY

        But let me see what he's written before...

        Well, there's this:

        Take Texas, a famously gerrymandered state. If you want to create competitive districts, you don’t have many great options. Of the state’s 254 counties, 244 were won by either Obama or Romney by at least 10 points. That's not how it used to be: Back in 1996, 92 counties were within 10 points. Perhaps unsurprisingly, these non-competitive counties tend to be extremely Republican. A whopping 176 of Texas’ 254 counties voted for Romney by more than a 40 point margin (at least 70-30). 81 of those counties voted for Romney by at least 60 points (ie 80-20). So, even a fair map would create plenty of incredibly red, safe, ultraconservative districts.
        Well that's silly. No one thinks gerrymandering is why Rs control seats in rural Texas. The whole deal swings on about 7-8 counties where like 1/2 of the state's population lives. Texas is currently 24-12. Ungerrymandering wouldn't make it 18-18, but it could absolutely make it 21-15: one extra seat in each of Austin, Houston, and DFW, basically. (Hence my +3 for Texas above.)
    •  Yeah that's ridiculous (5+ / 0-)

      I basically had it like this in my big diary:

      AL +1
      AR +0-1
      AZ -0-2 (whether the map is gerrymandered is debatable)
      CO +0-1
      CT -0-1
      FL +1-2
      GA +1
      IL -2-4
      IN +1
      IA +0-1 (also debatable on the map)
      LA +1
      MD -1
      MI +2-4
      NE +1
      NJ +2
      NC +3-4
      OH +4-5
      PA +3-5
      SC +1-2
      TX +3-4
      VA +2-4
      WA +1
      WI +2

      Which comes out to 23-39 representing what was my 95% confidence interval. But even if you think that's a little optimistic, that's still considerably above 17 even at the more pessimistic end of the spectrum. 5-10 is not remotely plausible without thinking that gerrymandering did relatively nothing in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas without even considering the smaller states like Nebraska or Louisiana.

      •  Yes. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think you are slightly optimistic in a few states. I also left aside states with bipartisan commissions that skewed in the R's favor, like NJ and WA, since I think it would be unfair to claim "republican gerrymandering" is responsible for those outcomes. Even so, with conservative assumptions and a narrow definition of 'gerrymander' we get to about 20.

        I.e., as you point out, at least enough to account for republican control of congress.

    •  From what I can tell on twitter (6+ / 0-)

      Both Nate Cohn and Harry Enten (of the Guardian) enjoy making statements that appear to be of the utmost certainty, but when actually looking at the statement, see they are pulling it out of their ass.

      Take what these guys say with a grain of salt.  Most of what they write is okay, but I now categorize these two as the "Pundit" class of electoral journalists.

      I think my favorite piece from Enten was this:  http://www.theguardian.com/...

      Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but just realize that even if these two are paid for what they do, it doesn't make their analysis correct.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home)

      by Ryan Dack on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:02:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  LOL (5+ / 0-)

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 09:58:22 AM PDT

  •  FL HD-36: C'mon, Fasano is being such a tease (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Tyler Yeargain

    He's with Amanda Murphy in this photo to corral early voters, but AFAIK he hasn't definitely endorsed her:
    https://www.facebook.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:13:05 AM PDT

  •  we read a case in one of my classes (6+ / 0-)

    regarding a strip club in St. Louis hiring an underage performer, and in the note afterwards it says that the defendant was the wife of a local boss who ran a small strip club and gambling empire, one Thomas Venezia. It said that he "owned" a good number of politicians and judges, including "an unindicted co-conspiring congressman" who as of publication was still in congress. After a brief search of the internets, I learned it was none other than Jerry Costello. My book is a few years old.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 10:32:52 AM PDT

  •  Diary Plug..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, KingofSpades

    I just did a diary profiling what I expect the geographic baseline for Democratic victories will be for red-state Senate races next year, some based on real-world expectations of close races and others hypothetical best-case scenarios in the event of a perfect storm.  I'm sure there are people with insights on these races that I haven't considered, so I welcome everyone to read and add to or dispute my hypotheses.

  •  First REAL sign we could take House in '14... (10+ / 0-)

    ...is in this Byron York column.

    I won't detail its contents, just read it, but I'll say the short of it is that the House GOP is completely rudderless and has no idea how to steer their own internal machinations, let alone negotiate meaningfully with Senate Dems or the Obama Administration.

    The York column is eye-opening because it reveals that the House Rs are even more dysfunctional than any time in the past.  And that being the case, they're not going to be able to keep the House if they don't get their own caucus under more control.  If they can't, then Boehner has to surrender openly to passing stuff with Democrats, even if it forces his retirement at the end of this term.  And if he won't do that, either, then we take the House.

    What's decisive in the midterms is stuff like this, whether the House can function with some semblance of stability.  It's not gerrymandering or demographics or other stuff.  It's what happens and what people think about it.  And when what's happening is clearly intolerable and unsustainable, then voters flip.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:10:26 PM PDT

    •  The historical parable I have in mind (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, bythesea, R30A, MichaelNY

      is comparing the position of Dems in Congress now to Le Duc Tho (chief negotiator for North Vietnam) during the Vietnam War.  Le Duc Tho knew how much people across the US reviled the war and that the pressure would ultimately cause America to cave.  This would have been avoided if the South Vietnamese Government had agreed to a coalition government in '67-'68.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 12:22:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kinda scary. (10+ / 0-)

      One thing that's striking to me is that Boehner and the other Republicans absolutely took for granted that their hostage-taking strategy would wring concessions from the Dems.

      On the one hand, it's rather ridiculous that Dems (especially Obama) set them up to believe that by playing into those games in the past.

      But more than that, it's startling that they are treating such a strategy as a matter of course. Even in the article, the "House lawmaker" who's speaking anonymously seems baffled by the intransigence of Reid and Obama for not negotiating with the hostage-takers. Makes it clear how important it is that this be nipped in the bud now, before it becomes any further normalized.

    •  Obama/OFA will have to run Presidential-level (3+ / 0-)

      campaign to GOTV in a major way in 2014.  I think the moderates in the House think that they're safe because of the non-Presidential turnout demo's.  

      Dems will need a major operation to convince their Presidential year voters that non-Presidential elections matter just as much.  Problem comes here is that our Senate seats at risk and longer shot pick-up opportunities need to run post-Obama campaigns, to get their electorate thinking to 2016 and beyond already.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:21:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The comments are beyond disturbing... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      There are a few conservatives there who realize they are losing and are pragmatic about it, but the rest are in the thickest bubble I've ever seen!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:49:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like this quote (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, James Allen, Chachy, MichaelNY

      "Instead, it's no, we're not going to negotiate, we're not going to negotiate, we're not going to negotiate," the lawmaker said. "Which means effectively you're going to try to humiliate the Speaker in front of his conference. And how effective a negotiating partner do you think he'll be then? You're putting the guy in a position where he's got nothing to lose, because you're not giving him anything to win."

      It never occurred to him that they weren't giving the Dems anything to win to begin with.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 08:35:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The bigger thing about that quote is... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        ...that the GOP isn't fighting for any principle to speak of.  Which has been reported all over the place in recent days.  They want "something" for the CR and debt limit hike...they just don't know what.  That guarantees they will get nothing because Obama and Reid and all other Senate Dems and almost all House Dems completely disrespect the House Rs and will rightly stay disrespectful.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 08:54:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Don't have votes for clean CR? Prove it! (6+ / 0-)

    Boehner claims there wouldn't be enough votes for a clean CR - Dems are seemingly rally around calling on him to prove it.  We know he's full of shit, because if he could lock down his caucus to vote against a CR he would have had that vote already and it would have GREATLY empowered his bargaining position.  So he knows the votes would be there.  Sen Schumer called his bluff on this - saying "You say it wouldn't pass - prove it", similarly Jay Carney tweeted something very similar -

     

      The Speaker says there are "not enough votes" to pass a clean CR? If he's right, why not prove it? wapo.st/1bAEOJr #JustVote
        —
        Jay Carney (EOP) (@PressSec) October 06, 2013
    I think this will be the line of attack for the Dems this week - try to force a floor vote, and paint Boehner as wholly unwilling to put it on the floor because he knows it would pass.  

    They need to bring up that the Senate voted on three GOP House passed CR bills and defeated all of them, but how Boehner hasn't put the one Senate CR bill to a vote - and it's because he knows it would pass and that the shutdown should have never happened and was all for nothing.  

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:45:00 PM PDT

    •  i'm not sure it would pass right now (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      if boehner brought it up for a vote at 11:59 on Oct 16, then yes it would. but right now, there aren't enough "moderates" with enough gets to vote for it.

      •  If it wouldn't pass right now - he'd hold a vote (5+ / 0-)

        He'd gain greatly in negotiation leverage if his caucus defeated a clean CR floor vote.  

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 03:26:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Given his past track record (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, Phaedrus Says What, LordMike

          It's possible that he can't count and doesn't even know what the results would be if he held a vote.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:14:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It would pass for sure because... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

            ...Pelosi and Hoyer would whip Dems, and Boehner presumably would allow it a "free" vote to let a few dozen to vote for it.

            If Boehner and the rest of leadership actually whipped against it to "prove" it can't pass, then it likely fails, just as a discharge petition on anything would fail.  It's not hard for Boehner to whip his caucus toward the right.  It's away from the right that he has problems.

            But there are always enough crossover Rs to pass stuff on whatever the GOP deems a free vote, like the debt ceiling in January and VAWA and the tax deal at the turn of the year, etc.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:25:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But Boehner's contention is it wouldn't pass... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              So he's selling the lie that he could lock down the votes - so if he can, strategically why wouldn't he? If he brought the clean CR to the floor for a vote and defeated it, it would send shockwaves and greatly strengthen his negotiation footing.  

              Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

              by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:39:50 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, it wouldn't strengthen him at all (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, NMLib

                Obama and Reid aren't negotiating at all, so there is no "footing" for Boehner to improve.

                Obama and Reid won't bend.

                If there's a clean debt ceiling hike vote and Dems produce close to 200 votes for it, but Rs kill it, and Boehner et al. worked to defeat it, Obama and Reid won't bend.  The only way they would bend would be if there are really 217 Members who out of personal conscience absolutely will not vote for a clean hike.  That is not the case, or there wouldn't have been a clean hike back in January that passed by a huge margin.

                Keep in mind that all the news reports now say that the GOP admits they have no idea what to even "demand" of Dems.  Something on Obamacare?  On other budget items?  A long laundry list?  A short one?  That really destroys Boehner's bargaining power.  Obama and Reid won't take House Rs seriously partly because House Rs are just fighting for pride over principle, and Obama and Reid know it.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 08:52:18 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Post a video? Me? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, DrPhillips

    Alright, then, I will.

    19, Male, MD-8. Fan of University of Virginia athletics.

    by Danny Ricci on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 01:52:29 PM PDT

  •  PPP CA-21: How is Valadao so popular? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, R30A

    I'm not overly excited about the PPP numbers.  The only Reps who really seem vulnerable are Miller, Coffman, and the Michigan Reps.  The rest of them are basically tied or ahead of Generic D, but when you consider the fact that Congressional Republicans are at all-time high unpopularity and "Generic D" is more popular than any actual politician, it's not the best news for us.  We can still win some of them, but it's going to take really stellar candidates.  I am optimistic about FL-02.

    But seriously, how is Valadao at 50%?  He's in a very blue district and has been a party line vote for the Republicans.

  •  Since I'm bored it turns out it's possible to draw (7+ / 0-)

    an Obama 08 district in eastern Tennessee without using Nashville though just barely and only if you use Knoxville:
     photo TNDem3-5-1Dirtyoverview_zps1daa1635.png
     photo TNDem3-5-1Dirtydata_zpsa8e55521.png

    Obama does a solid 15% better than the district where DSJ originally won in 2010. However under the average the 4th, which is quite ugly, is only 2% higher than the much cleaner version that I would actually have wanted Dems to drawn had they remained in control.

    •  Though the TN-04 you just posted is more durable (3+ / 0-)

      against voter shifts against us. Eric Stewart would have been elected there most likely, and could feel fairly good about holding it so long as he stayed fairly moderate, since Murfreesboro, Chattanooga, and Knoxville are probably trending our way (at least the parts you drew). Cooper can hold his district with little trouble, and you've insulated him from a primary challenge by some of the last rural Blue Dog areas in the state.

      I must say that certain segments of the Memphis machine would cry foul at what you did to TN-09 (since it means they can't primary Cohen), but frankly they deserve to be screwed after mismanaging Memphis and sullying the name of the Democratic Party all over the state.

      Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:45:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Curious what people think... (5+ / 0-)

    ... about this idea for U.S. constitutional reform.

    Obviously, this is a purely academic exercise. Nothing of the sort is going to happen. But if I were charged with redrawing the American government here's what I would do:

    Re: The House: I would eliminate mid-term elections for the House, electing House members to a four-year term coterminous with the presidency. I'd also mandate nonpartisan redistricting, perhaps through a national redistricting commission, and institute ranked-choice voting.

    For the Senate, I have two options for elections:

    a) Two classes with staggered, eight-year terms, with half elected each midterm. (The advantage here is that everyone would still get a chance then to give their verdict at midterm since the House would now have a four-year term.)

    b) The same, three classes, elected for staggered six-year terms, but divide it so that each state only gets 1 senator, and an equal number is elected by the Single Transferable Vote in one of five, large regional districts. This would mean that at each election, about 3-4 senators are elected per region. (A little bit fairer, but logistically a lot more complicated, especially figuring out how parties would nominate or how candidates would qualify across multiple states.)

    Either way, I would also reduce the Senate's power. No filibuster, for one. And I would create a system whereby any bill that passed the House but failed to pass the Senate could automatically be sent to the President's desk for a signature if it were passed in two concurrent House Sessions (by which I mean terms not intra-session "sessions").

    So, for example, if a Democratic bill passed the House in 2011 but failed to pass in the Senate, then it could be revived in 2012 (after the House has gone through another election) and, if approved by the House, proceed without senatorial authorization. The House in this case would not have unlimited powers to pass legislation, since they would still need to win another election and revive the numbers necessary to pass such a bill. But it would create an alternative pathway.

    The effect of these would make the U.S. system a little bit more parliamentary, especially with presidential elections and House elections made parallel. It would also reduce the possibility of divided government.

    Beyond that, I would also institute nine staggered eighteen-year terms for the Supreme Court, a national popular vote for president, etc., along with a host of public financing provisions, and a shortening of the presidential and congressional transition periods. (France does it in 10 days.)

    But in any event, I'm mostly curious to see what people think about the 4-year House Term, my proposed Senatorial electoral changes, and my proposed way around the Senate.

    •  I think a 4-year House term is a great idea (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, HoosierD42, KingofSpades, askew

      That way, you could eliminate the problem of midterm voting dropoff, and member wouldn't have to campaign and fundraise quite as constantly.

      Eliminating the filibuster does not require any Constitutional amendment, just a change in Senate rules.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 04:19:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Of course (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        I just mentioned that as an additional change I would make. The Senatorial changes - either electoral, or in powers - would need a constitutional amendment though.

        I should add that the reason I considered these reforms and not something like changing Senate apportionment is because that is specifically the one thing that cannot be amended in the Constitution (unless every state agrees).

        Although maybe, theoretically, you could first amend the constitution to remove that provision and then amend it.

      •  Also, Lyndon Johnson proposed a 4-yr House Term (7+ / 0-)

        ... in the 1966 SOTU address. But while it initially had quite a bit of support in the House, it ran into problems because, though his proposal was for a term co-terminous with the presidency, many House members preferred elections only at the midterms (because they saw it as preserving their independence). Senators meanwhile didn't want House members being able to run for the Senate while remaining in the House, so they proposed requiring any House Rep. running for the Senate to resign 6 months before.

        In any event, the whole thing went through several hearings but died in committee, and then the 1966 midterms resulted in big Democratic losses, the end of the Great Society, and it dropping off the agenda.

        •  I was completely unaware of this (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea

          Thanks for the really interesting history lesson.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 05:31:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Hmm (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          What was LBJ's rationale for proposing that?  Remember in 1966 the Ds had a huge majority in both chambers and the conventional wisdom was that the Ds were going to dominate the political scene.  Did he think it would be easier to pass legislation that way?

          •  Here's what he said in the SOTU (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, TeaBaggersAreRacists
            To strengthen the work of Congress I strongly urge an amendment to provide a 4-year term for Members of the House of Representatives -- which should not begin before 1972.

            The present 2-year term requires most Members of Congress to divert enormous energies to an almost constant process of campaigning -- depriving this Nation of the fullest measure of both their skill and their wisdom. Today, too, the work of government is far more complex than in our early years, requiring more time to learn and more time to master the technical tasks of legislating. And a longer term will serve to attract more men of the highest quality to political life. The Nation, the principle of democracy, and, I think, each congressional district, will all be better served by a 4-year term for Members of the House. And I urge your swift action.

    •  Ooh. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I like the idea to vastly weaken the senate. It seems impossible to abolish the darn thing, but greatly weakening it might have just enough populist appeal...

      The others thing I don't find quite as exciting.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 06:08:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Internal polls in Arkansas (7+ / 0-)

    PPP is currently polling AR-SEN (with government shutdown questions) for a client in Arkansas.

  •  How to end the shutdown. (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.theonion.com/...

    Disturbingly believable,.

    Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

    by R30A on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:58:00 PM PDT

  •  This Tuesday (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    voters go to the polls in a special primary in Arkansas State Senate District 21.

    Democratic State Senator Paul Bookout resigned a few months ago on corruption charges. This seat is located in Jonesboro. At the local level, Northeast Arkansas has bucked the statewide Republican trend in the last few years. Conservative outside groups poured money into local races across Northeast Arkansas to try to flip Democratic held seats. In the end, conservatives had a 0% success rate, and in fact, watched two Republican House incumbents (Jon Hubbard & Lori Benedict) go down to defeat in this area. Separately, Republicans picked up a seat south of Jonesboro that conservative outside groups had not spent money on. Republicans have no county-wide elected officials anywhere in Northeastern Arkansas.

    Regardless of the bad year conservatives had last year, nobody doubts that Northeast Arkansas is trending to the Republican side. Obama got record low numbers across the Northeast part of the state.

    The goal for Republicans is to finally win a State Senate seat in Craighead County. If they do, they can start organizing and deliver a must win county to Tom Cotton in November 2014. Mark Pryor and the Democrats need to show that they can still compete in blood red territory like this seat (roughly 33-37% Obama).

    The big question in the primary is whether Republicans will have a greater turnout than Democrats.

    As of Thursday, 57% of voters who had voted were Republicans; 43% were Democrats.

  •  WI-Gov: Mary Burke enters race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, BlueSasha

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 03:43:01 AM PDT

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