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I was inspired by my diary a couple of days ago (At least 84,000 have signed up...) to set up a very simple website devoted to nothing more than keeping track of the official ACA/Obamacare signup numbers as they're reported by the states running their own exchanges (as well as other reputable sources).

The HHS Dept. has stated that they aren't planning on releasing any official numbers for the still-massively-screwed-up federal exchange (Healthcare.gov), so this will have to serve for the moment. If and when someone else starts tracking these numbers on a regular basis, I'll be happy to give up this effort, but until then, it's at least something.

Here's the place to go; I'll be compiling the numbers weekly as they come in, to the best of my ability: ObamacareSignups.net

It's obviously very crude right now, just a simple spreadsheet with a handful of numbers and a few source links. The blue states are the ones that are running their own exchanges; the rest are all run by the Federal site (Healthcare.gov), although it looks like 2 states (Idaho and New Mexico) will be moving to their own next year, and Utah has it's own site for business signups only. Interestingly, it turns out that the territories (American Samoa, Puerto Rico, etc.) aren't covered by the ACA at all.

As of this evening, according to the listed sources, the current tally stands at 109,978 people actually signed up for actual health insurance policies through the exchanges.

I plan on cleaning it up this week, adding live links to the sources and the state exchanges, along with a few other odds 'n ends.

However, I'll need your help. I'd appreciate it if 15 people (one for each state exchange, plus one for D.C.) could volunteer to check the media in each of those states for the latest official (hopefully accurate) figures on how many people have actually signed up for a healthcare policy via the ACA (as opposed to just creating an account, although those numbers will be listed as well).

If you're interested in assisting, send me a private message, thanks!

Ideally, I'd like to have people actually call their state's Dept. of Health & Human Services (or whatever the appropriate agency is?) to get an official tally every Tuesday morning, but I'll take what I can get.

A few other notes:
--Since not every story with an update will come out on a Tuesday, I'll use my best judgment as to whether to lump it in with the previous week or the following week's figures (case in point: Rhode Island, which reported 366 on the 8th but then reported 1,698 this morning (the 12th); I have the second number moved to the 10/15 column, but will modify it if they release another new number Tuesday morning).

--Some of the stories list "households", others list "residents" or "people". In cases where they list the number as a "household" (but it's a reliable number), I'll multiply by 2.6 (which, according to the Census Bureau, is the average number of people in a U.S. "household" these days).

--Remember that the 110,000 figure only includes info on the 7 states that have actually released their numbers. It doesn't include Colorado, D.C., Hawaii, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon or Vermont. It doesn't include Massachusetts (which is sort of a special case, since they've had their exchange open for years (thanks, Mitt!!) and are already down to 5% uninsured, so I wouldn't expect too much movement there). And, of course, it doesn't include the 36 states (including big ones like Florida and Texas) which are covered by the Healthcare.gov behemoth.

--Also important: This number only includes people who have actually fully completed the signup process. In many cases there are thousands of pending applications, either online or printed paper, waiting to be processed.

--The magic number is 7 million, and the date for that magic number is March 30, 2013.  That's the number that the Obama administration has been openly touting as their goal for the first 6 months of the exchanges; apparently, if they hit that mark, the law should be financially successful; if they fall short, it probably won't (at least not initially). Of course, it also depends on who signs up--ideally, they want a good chunk of those 7 million to be young, healthy folks (the type unlikely to actually use too many healthcare services), to shore up the cost of the rest of us.

To hit 7 million in 6 months, they'll have to average at least 270,000 signups per week. However, the signup numbers will fluctuate greatly depending on the time (expect a spike in signups as we approach Dec. 15th), so I'm not too concerned...yet.

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Comment Preferences

  •  You Can Now Look At The Different Plans (6+ / 0-)

    for each state without having to create an account.  I think this should help with the number of people going on the website.  It was real easy to get into the marketplace.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 05:47:39 PM PDT

  •  Possibly can add 49,000... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, peacestpete

    ... for the Healthcare.gov or more.   I read on a very conservative site that number as signups  attributed to unidentified sources within the HHS.   Now, this 49K was used to express how disappointing the launch was but it struck me that IF that was what Healthcare.gov did, then much more could be expected of the state sites.   Your work shows just that!   Another unidentified "source" in a different, disparaging right wing article mentioned that only about 1 out of 100 applications where ending in approved coverage.   Having a lot of experience with Medicare Part D enrollment that doesn't sound totally unreasonable.  Even paper apps turned in by experienced brokers and agents often have an "incomplete" ration worse than 50 % so ... with all the technical glitches involved... online apps by novices could in fact have a very low completion ratio.  That tells me that eventually, these apps will mostly become covered members of ACA insurance.

    Keep in mind, if someone fills out an application for health insurance, they are likely to keep at it until they get covered.  This isn't shopping for a luxury, and you can get it affordably... you will be persistent.  If we closed about 150,000 enrollees in the first week:  THAT'S A BIG F^@#ING DEAL!!!

    •  Oh, I agree that it's entirely POSSIBLE that... (4+ / 0-)

      ...the true number in the first week could be upwards of 150,000 people or more...but the whole point of this exercise is to only list solid numbers from solid sources, not speculation or conjecture.

      This is why I'm calling on Kathleen Sebelius and the HHS Dept. to just go ahead and released the damned hard numbers, no matter how tiny or embarrassing they are.

      If it's 100,000, fantastic. If it's 10,000, 1,000, 100 or 1, that sucks, but the P.R. damage has already been done; better to release the numbers and take your lumps in the press than to keep it a mystery and have everyone just assume that the numbers are pathetic.

      Ideally, every single state's numbers should be released every Tuesday morning--not the number of website visitors or "accounts created", but the actual number of people (not just "households") who are actually signed up to real health insurance plans, to begin on January 1, 2014.

      •  I should also note that it's important to track (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        peacestpete, rmx2630

        ...WHERE those signups are happening. Look at Washington D.C....they only have 70,000 uninsured, because they only have 630,000 people there in the first place, so if they "only" get 35,000 people to sign up by next spring, that's fully half of their uninsured people who are now covered!

  •  Numbers from California (Oct. 8) (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MRA NY, puakev, peacestpete, SoCalSal, rmx2630

    California Obamacare Sign-Ups Exceed 28,000 in First Week

    California said 28,699 people were signed up in the state’s health-insurance exchange in the first week, while New York had more than 40,000 sign up.The numbers for California, the largest U.S. state by population, were for the Oct. 1 to Oct. 5 period and exceeded expectations, Peter V. Lee, executive director of Covered California, said ....Success is critical in California, where the Obama administration has sent almost $1 billion in exchange grants. “Looking back at this one week, the response has been nothing short of phenomenal,” Lee said. “We anticipated we’d have very low enrollment in the first week.”

    Open enrollment ends March 31, and Lee estimated that 500,000 to 700,000 Californians would enroll with subsidies by then.... An additional 1.4 million will be newly eligible for the state’s Medicaid program.

    "

    From another source Oct. 9:

    From last Tuesday through Saturday, Lee reported, 16,311 California households completed applications for either private health insurance or the newly expanded Medi-Cal program. The household applications included 28,699 individuals. According to Lee, another 27,305 households established accounts and partially completed their applications.

    The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

    by ybruti on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 06:30:48 PM PDT

  •  has anyone here (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MRA NY, Susipsych, peacestpete

    been able to complete the process through healthcare.gov

    i'm trapped in the income verification section and could use some news that it's possible so i don't just quit trying for a month.

    •  check out this diary: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      peacestpete, begone

      "Don't Bet Against Us" - President Barack Obama

      by MRA NY on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 07:02:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ditto (0+ / 0-)

      Income section won't correctly save the information I entered that's at odds with 2012 return. After three attempts, a conversation yesterday with one of the folks at the 800 number suggested they are aware of this coding glitch -- per suggestion, I'm going to try again in a day or so.

      Truthfully, to avoid a lot of aggravation, it could make sense to wait a couple of weeks (though today's NYT article suggests it may actually take longer to get it all worked out). :(  Sorry to be wishy-washy in my reply.

    •  Have you called to ask what to do? (0+ / 0-)

      I'm in a state-run exchange, but got stuck at the same point -- they said either mail in documents or come into the office. I went in on Saturday and they checked my 2012 tax return and current pay stub and went in and changed the status to "Verified," and I was then able to finish up.

      My understanding is that national exchange is doing the same sort of thing to work around the apparent disfunction in the automated income verification process.

  •  wow, VT beat only by HI and MA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MRA NY

    Hi Ma!!!!


    I'm not an athiest. How can you not believe in something that doesn't exist? That's way too convoluted for me. - A. Whitney Brown

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 06:42:35 PM PDT

  •  Look at all the states with .highest percentages (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, Calamity Jean, rmx2630

    of uninsured.

    ALL RED states, except for CA and NM

    Texas
    Nevada

    New Mexico
    California
    Florida
    Georgia
    Louisiana
    South Carolina
    Mississippi
    Alaska
    Arizona
    Arkansas
    Idaho
    Montana
    Wyoming
    North Carolina
    Oklahoma


    I'm not an athiest. How can you not believe in something that doesn't exist? That's way too convoluted for me. - A. Whitney Brown

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 06:48:53 PM PDT

  •  Would you like some help (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MRA NY

    with the site itself? CSS work, data visualization, etc?

    "Let’s just move on, treat everybody with firmness, fairness, dignity, compassion and respect. Let’s be Marines." - Sgt. Maj Michael Barrett on DADT repeal

    by kyril on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 06:49:28 PM PDT

    •  Nah...I'm a website developer by trade, I just... (0+ / 0-)

      ...threw this together in Excel and slapped it online for the moment. First I just want to see if there's any actual interest in assisting with the numbers.

      Actually, I should really just do it as a Google Doc so I can plug the numbers and tallies in easier.

  •  I did mine by phone, and am waiting for my (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap

    eligibility report.  I should be signed up by the end of the month.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 07:35:25 PM PDT

  •  There's at least one Indiana account--mine. (3+ / 0-)

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 07:36:26 PM PDT

  •  Cover Oregon, no enrollments yet (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap

    Per Nick Budnick, The Oregonian, October 10, updated October 11: Cover Oregon: some progress, but key fix could take a while.

    Officials for the state's health insurance exchange say they're making progress. But a fix to its biggest problem– the one that prevents it from accurately enrolling people online – is no longer described as imminent. ...

    Already, officials had limited Cover Oregon's enrollment function to agents and groups certified to offer assistance. That backup plan, however, tripped on a major hurdle. Cover Oregon programmers continue to grapple with the site's high error rate in determining eligibility for tax credits or other assistance, according to spokesman Michael Cox.

    The function was supposed to work on Oct. 1, but was taken offline at the last minute to ensure accuracy. Officials then thought the problem could be fixed by Oct. 7, and then by Oct. 9 at the earliest. Exchange officials now say they expect a fix "later this month."

    On Wednesday, the exchange sent an e-mail with those words to insurance agents and its certified "community partner" groups. In the meantime, agents and others can help people fill out downloadable applications for tax credits and other programs, the e-mail said.

    This new backup plan bypasses the website's faulty IT. The application forms, which request consumer income information, are submitted to Cover Oregon electronically with the click of a button. State workers may process them, not the Cover Oregon website.

    However, as of Wednesday those applications have not been processed. And nobody has yet been enrolled in commercial insurance. Next week Cover Oregon will decide how to handle them, Cox said late on Thursday.

    I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

    by rsmpdx on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 09:42:55 PM PDT

  •  Kaiser Family Foundation news summary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap

    I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

    by rsmpdx on Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 11:05:36 PM PDT

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