As we rightly take a deep satisfying breath, we are left with the questions of what we can expect and what we should be doing about it.
Let me start by saying that these past weeks have clearly put control of the House back in play and that means control of the Senate is very likely. How the next weeks go will tell us a lot about just how realistic these chances are. Most of that is out of our control, however activists here can help shape these next weeks.
There are perils ahead but opportunities abound.
The obvious peril is over playing our hand. We were untited in opposition to the crazy, but the basic structure of our differences with the establishment remain. At best we can hope to shape bits of the upcoming debate. That is not to say we should not push for our positions even stridently. But we need to be aware of just how that will be received. The media will be desperate to reinvigorate the both sides do it narrative, the establishment will be eager to show how they handle their crazies. Democrats will be looking to show they are not like the Republicans and stomp on their weirdos. To some extent I'm prepared to be a whipping boy if it can advance our larger goals or at least minimize the the losses I expect.
The desire to appear as the adults in the room is going to lead our President and much of our congressional leadership to do some very foolish things. I know this and I accept that in that respect all I can hope for is that our adversaries can save us from our allies. We are going to lose on chained CPI. It is coming and we cannot stop it. The best we can hope for right now is stop it there and perhaps minimize the damage. The best outcome I see right now is to at least get the "savings" channeled into alleviating the sequester cuts of our social safety net programs. Pairing that with revenue increase to do the same for defense may just satisfy the adults in the room enough to allow the Tea Party to come to the rescue.
Opportunity is there also. The rifts in the Republican coalition remain. The President was very wise to bring up immigration. Other then the ACA there is probably no other issue that will expose the cracks and rally the base (ours and theirs) as much. It is in those cracks that the real opportunities lay. We need to expose them wherever we can. But not with sledge hammers and picks. We need to lay seeds in them. What I mean by that is we must take those things that are generally popular and that we can share with at least part of the republican coalition and bring them into the discussion. Let us not forget that part of the republican coalition wants to appear as adults also.