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State board of elections has updated their figures, and now shows Obenshain, the Republican, up by 55 votes.

But, you can go to this page, click on the CSV link, and get a list of all the changes being made.  There are no provisional votes for the AG race from either Alexandria City (net Herring (d) 29) or Richmond (net Herring 11).  That would make the current margin, without Fairfax County provisionals, 15.

There are something like 134 jurisdictions in Virginia, between counties and cities.  I think just about everything else is in.  

Fairfax has 494 identified provisionals.  Their offices are open tomorrow, Monday, and until at least 1 PM Tuesday.  According to Briane Schoeneman, who is a Republican, they have to legally certify their count by Tuesday.

Fairfax broke roughly 60-40 for Herring.

So far provisional ballots in most jurisdictions have broken the way the rest of the votes did, except for Alexandria, which gave Herring a bigger margin among provisionals than would have projected from the other votes, 29 instead of 23-24.

Were all 494 counted, that would project to a 98-99 net vote pickup for Herring.

If even 100 were counted, it is still a net 20.

I know that there were people who showed up yesterday, and more today.  Given three more days on which they can show up, given that Monday is a holiday for a lot of people and thus it is not as much of a problem to make an appearance, the odds are heavily in Herring's favor that he will be ahead after Fairfax counts whatever provisionals they can.  It will be at best a double digit lead.  It could be less than 10 votes.

All of the counties/cities that had big margins for OBenshain reported some time ago.  Do not know what else besides Fairfax is not included.  Knowing that Alexandria and Richmond announced their results later in the day and I am seeing provisionals from other jurisdictions in the CSV, and given the analysis by the likes of Dave Wasserman and Ben Tribbett, I believe the actual margin right now is 15, with Fairfax more than enough to surpass that on Tuesday, unless there are some as yet undiscovered trove of Obenshain votes someplace else, or unless there are sufficient provisionals in the remaining counties.cities that may not have yet reported, which I doubt -  roughly 1 in 8 Virginians live in Fairfax County, and the big Republican jurisdictions have all reported their provisionals.

Due caution -  if the final certified results are a tie, under Virginia law the entire General Assembly gets to vote.  Does not matter if it is the current or the incoming, in either case, since the Senate is tied and the House of Delegates is heavily Republican, Obenshain would win.

Regardless of who wins, a special election in the Senate will result as both candidates are state senators.  We already have a special to replace the new Lt Gov Northam in the Senate.

Our election process in Virginia is far from done.

UPDATE  9:46 PM EST -  okay, not clear what actual count should be.  Alexandria provisionals shown on state web site, Richmond provisionals not.  Thus knowing Herring netted 11 in Richmond, count down at least to 44.  Ben Tribbett thinks that there are 10 votes from Fairfax correction not on website which would be 34.  Meanwhile there are a ton of jurisdictions showing zero provisionals.  While it is possible some of the smaller ones had none, unlikely in a place like the city of Roanoke, although Roanoke County, which had over 30,000 votes in the AG race, reported only 4 provisionals (3-1 for Obenshain,in a county that went 2-1 in his favor -  Roanoke City had 21,400 votes breaking  55.7 - 44.2 for Hsrring - most jurisidictions showing no provisionals had far less votes).   Thus we may not know details until people certify, which does not have to be until Tuesday.  Picture remains cloudy, still with real possibility of single digits, certainly of <1,000 vote margin, and quite possibly <100 vote margin.  But which way is not certain.

Originally posted to teacherken on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 05:11 PM PST.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

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