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Leading Off:
• MI-Sen, MI-Gov: PPP's new Michigan poll finds slippage for Democrats in both the Senate and governor's races, but the numbers are hardly disastrous. On the Senate side, Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land now edges Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 42-40, a turnabout from Peters' 41-36 lead in June. Land has a positive 34-23 favorability rating, but Peters is still mostly unknown at 22-21. If you're a Democrat tied in a blue state, you'd rather be the one with more room to grow.
Moreover, while both candidates take about three quarters of the vote from self-identified members of their parties, Land is now winning independents 47-30. Five months ago, that fickle group was ready to split its vote evenly. I don't really like focusing on them precisely because of that fickleness, but it says a lot about how blue Michigan is even a 17-point lead among independents isn't enough for a real lead on the head-to-heads. No, I'm not lovin' it if I'm Gary Peters, but he does have a serious cushion, so long as things don't get worse.
And yeah, they're not good right now, with Barack Obama sporting a 47-51 approval rating in a state he won by 9 points last year. But even with that downward pressure, GOP Gov. Rick Snyder only holds a 44-40 lead over Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer. As with Land, that's an improvement from the previous poll, where Schauer was actually on top, 42-38. But 44 is still not a very good place for an incumbent to be, especially with an underwater 42-49 approval score. Schauer also remains unknown to almost two thirds of the state, so again, he has real upside, as long as he can raise enough money to get his name out there.
If the bleeding caused by Obamacare has indeed been staunched, then Democrats will have plenty of time to recover. Republicans, on the other hand, probably need the political climate to deteriorate even further to hold on to their gains or make further ones in Michigan.
Senate:
• AR-Sen: Citizens United is not an organization you can trust to be a straight shooter, but the trendlines from their new poll are concerning. The awkwardly-named Polling Company, Inc./WomanTrend finds GOP Rep. Tom Cotton beating Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 48-41, a sizable jump from Pryor's small 45-43 edge in August. (That poll was conducted for the Washington Free Beacon, a conservative media outlet.) Even if you don't care for the pollster or their client, Pryor has to hope that things have hit bottom—and that they get better.
Meanwhile, that pro-Cotton ad from Marco Rubio's PAC is finally available. Rubio is reportedly spending $200,000 to curry favor with a rising star ahead of his presidential run to help elect Cotton, with a new spot that praises Cotton's military record. Rubio also held a fundraiser for Cotton in Miami earlier this week.
• KS-Sen: Physician Milton Wolf, whose only claim to fame is that he's a distant cousin of Barack Obama, hasn't gotten much attention for his challenge to Sen. Pat Roberts in the GOP primary. But he did just nail down a pretty good endorsement, from the Senate Conservatives Fund. Now come on, guys: Surely Steve Stockman's chances are no worse!
• NC-Sen: PPP's monthly North Carolina poll isn't very pretty for Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, but at least things are basically unchanged since November. Here's how she fares against the GOP field, with trendlines in parentheses:
• 44-42 vs. Thom Tillis (44-42)
• 43-43 vs. Heather Grant (43-40)
• 43-43 vs. Mark Harris (43-41)
• 43-45 vs. Greg Brannon (43-44)
• 43-45 vs. Bill Flynn
Sort of like we saw in PPP's recent Colorado poll, the best-known Republican (in this case, state House Speaker Thom Tillis) actually fares the worst, though the differences are minor. Hagan had better hope they prove to be meaningful, as her best shot at winning at this point will be to drive her opponent's negatives through the roof. And her opponent may not be Tillis: He only leads the GOP primary with 13 percent, with everyone else bunched up right behind him; Flynn, in last, takes 8.
But if there's a bit of good news, as Tom Jensen points out, Republicans may be forced into an expensive and time-consuming runoff. North Carolina's threshold is lower than most other states, as candidates only need to clear 40 percent in the primary, but Democrats had to deal with a runoff in the 2010 Senate race, so it certainly can and does happen. Hagan would surely like for it to happen again.
• TX-Sen: As soon at the penniless Steve Stockman announced his extremely unexpected challenge to Sen. John Cornyn, we knew he'd need some serious outside help to make it work. Unfortunately for El Steverino (and unfortunately for the cause of hilarity), one of the biggest conservative moneybags that likes to meddle in GOP primaries has already announced they're staying out. The Club for Growth says they're happy with Cornyn's record, citing his 87 percent lifetime rating on the group's scorecard. They also took a backhanded swipe at Stockman, suggesting that his "viability" is limited.
On the other hand, the Senate Conservatives Fund offered some warmer thoughts, saying that while they haven't decided on an endorsement yet, they're "glad" Stockman is running. Unlike the Club, they're pretty unhappy with Cornyn, accusing him of voting "to increase the debt, raise taxes, bail out Wall Street banks, and fund Obamacare" and adding that "voters deserve an alternative."
P.S. Just check out this freaking lunatic.
Gubernatorial:
• IL-Gov: Republican rich guy Bruce Rauner is running a bunch of new 15-second ads (some on TV, some online), but yer gonna have to watch these yerself if you want to know what's in 'em.
• ME-Gov: Alright, it's not all sour polling news for Team Blue today. Pan Atlantic SMS has new numbers out of Maine that show Rep. Mike Michaud narrowly edging GOP Gov. Paul LePage 37-36, with independent Eliot Cutler at 18. That's the sixth public survey in a row to show Michaud ahead, and that comes despite Barack Obama's almost impossibly bad 36-60 job approval rating. Pan Atlantic's poll also confirms several others that have found Cutler slipping into the teens. (For what it's worth, the firm had LePage at 34 in March, with Cutler actually in second at 26 and Michaud at 23, but that was before Michaud announced his candidacy.)
• MN-Gov: Freshman state Sen. Karin Housley, who has been on the job for less than a year, says she's leaning toward a run for governor. She would join a very crowded field that already features half a dozen other Republicans seeking to unseat Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton.
• OH-Gov: Can't say this one's a surprise, but it's a serious "oof" moment nevertheless: Likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ed FitzGerald has cut loose his running mate, state Sen. Eric Kearney, after weeks of negative stories about Kearney's unpaid tax liens, which exceeded $800,000. In announcing the news, FitzGerald claimed he was aware of Kearney's liabilities but "did not anticipate that the political process would make no distinction" between the money Kearney owed personally and those owed by his business interests.
I seriously hope that's just Fitz trying to cover himself here, because I think the naiveté such a statement implies is far worse than the incompetence and haste that the Kearney selection would otherwise demonstrate, especially for a former prosecutor like FitzGerald. Anyhow, FitzGerald says he's working on a picking a replacement and claims that a number of other options were vetted before he chose Kearney. Those alternatives had better receive the appropriate level of scrutiny this time.
Ohio's filing deadline is Feb. 5, though it sounds like FitzGerald wants to find a new number two before then. Hopefully he still has enough time to put this mess behind him.
House:
• CA-17: The Sierra Club has endorsed Rep. Mike Honda over fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, the latest in a long string of progressive organizations and Democratic politicians to get behind the incumbent.
• NC-12: The Senate was finally able to confirm Democratic Rep. Mel Watt as the next head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the department that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Watt's nomination had previously been filibustered, but now that Senate rules only require a simple majority for confirmation, Watt easily sailed through on a 57-41 vote. Once Watt steps down, a special election will be scheduled; seeing as Barack Obama carried the district 79-21, all the action will be on the Democratic side.
• NY-13: Former Gov. David Paterson had suggested a while back that he might run in the Democratic primary for Rep. Charlie Rangel's seat, but now he's taken that option off the table.
• TX-36: Rep. Steve Stockman's last second Senate run will, of course, leave his east Texas district vacant. Ahead of the original filing deadline (more on that below), the only Republicans running were those either willing to take on Stockman in the primary or anyone who was tipped off to his machinations. (In this blood red district—Romney won 73-26 here—all the action will be in the GOP primary.)
And that group amounted to five individuals. The best-connected looks like Doug Centilli, the longtime chief of staff to Rep. Kevin Brady. Brady used to represent about 39 percent of brand-new 36th before redistricting, so Centilli may be able to take advantage of his old boss' name recognition. Another notable candidate is former Liberty County judge Phil Fitzgerald, though not necessarily for a good reason. Until last year, Fitzgerald was under indictment for allegedly receiving kickback money, but the charges were dropped.
Also in the race are two city councilors, John Amdar of Nassau Bay and Kim Morrell of Seabrook. Morrell ran a pretty forgettable campaign for this seat last year, raising little money and winning only 3.5 percent in the primary. Rounding out the field is Dave Norman, who ran for a state Senate seat in 2012 and won a distant second place in the Republican primary with 25 percent. Centilli is probably the frontrunner here but this is the place that elected Steve Stockman, so anything can happen.
Indeed, a lot might happen. The Texas GOP says it's re-opening the filing period in the 36th, saying that they're required to hold it open for another week under state election law given Stockman's last-second switcheroo. So all this may yet change, and given how weak this field is, strong contenders are likely to re-evaluate their options. (Jeff Singer)
• VA-10: Democrats have scored a good get in Northern Virginia's 10th Congressional District, where Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust just announced that he'll run against veteran GOP Rep. Frank Wolf. (It looks like the news was first broken by our own DCCyclone.) While this district appears competitive on paper—Mitt Romney won it by just a single point last year—Wolf is a skilled politician who hasn't even been held to single digits since 1982. Foust, though, is the most prominent opponent Wolf has had for some time, and the first sitting elected official to offer a challenge since 1986. Two other Democrats are also running: attorney Richard Bolger and architect Sam Kubba.
• WV-03: The House Majority PAC is running a new ad in support of Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall, backed by a considerable $150,000 buy. (That goes a long way in West Virginia.) The spot defends Rahall's record on coal, which has been attacked by Republicans.
Other Races:
• CA State Assembly: Republican Susan Shelley has withdrawn her request for a recount in the 45th District special election, meaning that Democrat Matt Dababneh will take the seat without any further ado. It also means that Democrats will head into January's legislative session holding 55 of the Assembly's 80 seats, one over the critical two-thirds mark. (Democrats also have a two-thirds majority in the state Senate.)
• TX Supreme Court: Well here's something you don't see every day (or every decade): a Southern statewide elected official switching parties and becoming a Democrat. But that's just what happened Monday as Judge Lawrence Meyers of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals abandoned his longtime Republican label and joined the Democratic Party. Meyers made his move in order to run in a special election for Texas Supreme Court in November of next year, though he gets to hold his current seat until 2016 if he loses.
Notably, Meyers' switch also gives Democrats their first statewide elected official in decades. The last time Democrats won a statewide victory in Texas was 1994, when the party held the offices of Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Comptroller. In a bit of sad trivia, all four of 1994's Democratic winners had less successful careers afterwards. Lt. Governor Bob Bullock died in soon after retiring in 1998. Treasurer Marsha Whitehead won in 1994 on a platform of abolishing the Treasurer's office, which the legislature soon did.
Attorney General Dan Morales, meanwhile, retired in 1998 and lost a 2002 primary for governor; Morales was found guilty of falsifying documents the next year and served time in prison. Comptroller John Sharp seems to have fared the best: While he lost his 1998 and 2002 races for lieutenant governor, he now serves as chancellor of the Texas A&M University System. (Jeff Singer)
• VA-AG: Since the idea first cropped up last month, the notion that Republican Mark Obenshain could ask the Virginia legislature to overturn the results of the attorney general's race, regardless of how the upcoming recount turns out, had existed only in the realm of media speculation—until now. In a hearing on Monday before the special court presiding over the recount, an attorney for Obenshain openly raised the possibility that his client might, in fact, seek to contest the race before the legislature, where the Republican majority would be free to decree whatever outcome it likes. The campaign wouldn't answer any further questions on the topic, but it would be truly thermonuclear should Obenshain pursue this option.
Grab Bag:
• Site News: We're very pleased to announce that longtime horserace analyst Taniel (aka Daniel Nichanian) is joining the gang here at Daily Kos Elections. You may remember Taniel from his old digs at Campaign Diaries; since then, he's become a must-follow on Twitter. It's been a long hiatus from long-form writing for Taniel, but he's already back in top form with a deep dive into the madness that is Steve Stockman. Be sure to check out his piece (I learned several scary new details about Stockman), and keep coming back for more as the cycle progresses.
• Texas: Filing closed in the Lone Star state on Monday, and it's looking like we'll have some exciting races to watch in the March 4 primary. Texas operates under the runoff system for primaries: If no candidate wins 50 percent in the first round, the top-two vote-getters advance to a May 27 runoff. For a full list of who's running, check out Burnt Orange's candidate tracker. Also be sure to bookmark our 2014 calendar for all future filing deadlines and primary dates.
Republican Sen. John Cornyn looked like he was about to cruise to victory over a cavalcade of little known opponents, but Rep. Steve Stockman's surprise last-minute entry changes that. Stockman is almost cartoonishly insane, which may be a plus in a Republican primary; however, Cornyn starts out with a massive cash advantage over his primary foe. Five Democrats are running here: the frontrunners looks like wealthy dentist David Alameel (who won an unimpressive 11 percent in TX-33's 2012 Democratic primary) and lawyer Maxey Scherr.
The other Republican statewide figure fighting for his life in the primary is Lt. Governor David Dewhurst. Dewhurst will face state Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, state Sen. Dan Patrick, and state Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples. The winner will take on Democratic state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte. Other statewide Republican primaries worth watching are the open seat races for Attorney General, Comptroller, Agriculture Commissioner, and Railroad Commissioner.
With the exception of Stockman, all of the state's members of Congress are running for reelection. Most have only token primary opponents or none at all. One Congressman doubtlessly breathing a sigh of relief is freshman Democratic Rep. Marc Veasey, who avoided a rematch with former state Rep. Domingo Garcia in TX-33.
The only House member looking potential vulnerable in a primary is 90-year old Republican Ralph Hall of TX-04. Hall won less than 59 percent in his last two primaries and has raised very little so far. And one of Hall's foes may be able to give him a real race: Former U.S. Attorney John Ratcliffe is a former Bush Administration official and is reportedly well connected.
Two other House primaries are worth watching. Three Republicans are competing in TX-23 to take on Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego in what is expected to be the state's only competitive general election contest. Former Rep. Francisco Canseco wants another go at Gallego but has been running a weak race so far. Canseco will face former CIA agent Will Hurd, who lost to Canseco 53-47 in 2010's GOP primary runoff, and conservative activist Robert Lowry. In Stockman's now vacant TX-36, five Republicans are facing off for this safely Republican seat, though that may change. (See our item above.) (Jeff Singer)