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I love playing around with numbers and looking for patterns. Usually we are talking correlations, but under some correlations are causations. I haven't published much new playing with numbers for awhile, but in the past I played around with gender ratios around the world, and I have reviewed health outcome statistics and coverage vs. overall cost of health care vs. public funding of healthcare around the world.

Recently on the front page was the arresting article that the states with the lowest mortality rates are mostly "blue" and the states with the highest mortality rate are mostly "red." I decided to delve deeper into the numbers and look at the website cited in that article to find more information about different states in the US. Now, first thing I want to say is this is a "by eye" analysis. If someone paid me to do this I would do a far more extensive analysis, covering at least 10 years for each measurement, presenting graphs showing correlations and doing the necessary stats on these comparisons. But no one is paying me, so I am just doing a brief overview.

I also want to note that for almost everything I am looking at, the two most critical factors for good outcomes are education and lower poverty. I am not covering these two factors, though I would if someone was paying me! Every study I have looked at on the subject suggests that more funding to education and more funding towards alleviating poverty do more to reduce almost EVERY negative statistic you want to mention, which is why education, jobs, increasing minimum wage, etc. are critical for improving society. Ethnic issues and racism are also at play...another thing I would analyze in detail if I was paid for this!

But I decided to look at some other correlations. For each I start with an initial hypothesis but do not start with any idea whether my initial hypothesis will be supported by the numbers I am looking at. I did not have time to graph or do statistical analysis on the following. But some interesting things do come out of it. Some measurements I use only look at states, not territories like Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, etc.

Some major numbers below.

REDUCING TEEN PREGNANCY:

First I want to look at the hypothesis that high teen pregnancy correlates with state policy that restricts abortions, access to contraceptives, and accurate sex education (as opposed to abstinence only education).

Of all developed nations, the US has one of the highest teen pregnancy rate, on average 3-fold higher than for the rest of the developed world. The trend has been VERY positive. Teen pregnancy rates have been going down across the board in the US for years now...but the discrepancies within the US are striking. The states that tend to be more conservative and more overtly religious have almost ALWAYS had and CONTINUE to have the higher teen pregnancy rates.

What I present below may not be the best comparison, but I look at teen pregnancy rate vs. NARAL ranking for each state. I look at the highest and lowest states (again if I was being paid I'd do a complete analysis) for teen pregnancy and compare with NARAL grades:

Teen births per 1000:

Below 25 teen births per 1000
NH: 15.7 (NARAL rating: B-)
MA: 17.2 (NARAL rating: B-)
VT: 17.9 (NARAL rating: A-)
CT: 18.7 (NARAL rating: A)
NJ: 20.1 (NARAL rating: A-)
ME: 21.3 (NARAL rating: A)
RI: 22.3 (NARAL rating: D+)
MN: 22.5 (NARAL rating: C+)
NY:22.7 (NARAL rating: A-)

(Almost all better than C, RI notable exception)

Above 50 teen births per 1000
Guam: 60.1
MS: 55.0 (NARAL rating: F)
NM: 53.0 (NARAL rating: A-)
AR:: 52.5 (NARAL rating: F)
TX: 52.2 (NARAL rating: F)
PR: 51.4
VI: 50.5
OK: 50.4 (NARAL rating: F)

(Almost all F, NM notable exception)

BOTTOM LINE: States that are most opposed to NARAL policies tend to have higher teen pregnancy rates. Conservative policies on sexuality tend to correlate with higher teen pregnancy (would be better if could get similar numbers for access to contraception and for accurate sex ed classes vs. abstinence only).

DEATH:

Second I want to look at the hypothesis that states with worse insurance coverage have a higher death rate. This is in some ways an upfront measurement of the value of health insurance, but it also is over simplified since bother values I am trying to compare will be influenced by other factors such as poverty, racism, and education. But let's take a look.

This is roughly what the dKos article I cite at the beginning, that inspired this diary, was covering. The message of that article was that the states with the lowest mortality rates were bluer than the states with the highest mortality rates. I wanted more info. So I decided to look at insurance coverage. Is there a correlation between being covered by insurance and lower death rate. The answer is "yes" but it is reasonably subtle in the numbers. My first thought was just to look at the % uninsured in 2012 (the latest number) and try to correlate with death rate...there is some correlation, where states with a lower % uninsured had a lower death rate, but it was not easy by eye to split the best from the worst states based on one year. So I looked over 14 years and compared how many years each state had fewer than 10, 15 or 20% uninsured and tried to correlate with death rate. The correlation kind of balances around 15% uninsured...states that have a hard time maintaining that number tend to also have some years where the uninsured rate gets upwards of 20 % and they also tend to have a higher death rate. States that consistently maintain less than 15% uninsured and even reach 10% uninsured tend to have the lowest death rates.

Death rate: deaths per 100,000

Below 700
HI: 589.6 (% uninsured 2012: 7.7; 14/14 years below 10)
CA: 646.7 (% uninsured 2012: 17.9; 14/14 years below 20)
CT: 652.9 (% uninsured 2012: 8.1; 10/14 years below 10; 14/14 years below 15)
MN: 661.5 (% uninsured 2012: 8.3; 14/14 years below 10)
Virgin Islands: 663.2
NY: 665.5 (% uninsured 2012: 11.3; 13/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
MA: 675.0 (% uninsured 2012: 4.1; 13/14 years below 10; 14/14 years below 15)
CO: 682.7 (% uninsured 2012: 13.7; 7/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
NH: 690.4 (% uninsured 2012: 12.0; 9/14 years below 10; 14/14 years below 15)
NJ: 691.1 (% uninsured 2012: 14.0; 12/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
WA: 692.3 (% uninsured 2012: 13.6; 14/14 years below 15)
AZ: 693.1 (% uninsured 2012: 18.0; 13/14 years below 20)

Almost always below 20% (only AZ goes above 20% and even there only 1 year). Most are consistently below 15% uninsured (CA a notable exception), about half are below 10% for at least half that time.

Above 850
MS: 962.0 (% uninsured 2012: 15.3; 1/14 years below 15; 12/14 years below 20)
AL: 939.7 (% uninsured 2012: 14.8; 11/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
WV: 933.6 (% uninsured 2012: 14.6; 11/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
American Samoa:932.9
OK: 915.5 (% uninsured 2012: 17.2; 1/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
KY: 915.0 (% uninsured 2012: 15.7; 10/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
LA: 903.8 (% uninsured 2012: 18.3; 1/14 years below 15; 11/14 years below 20)
AR: 892.7 (% uninsured 2012: 18.4; 2/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
TN: 890.8 (% uninsured 2012: 13.9; 2/14 years below 10; 13/14 years below 15; 14/14 years below 20)
Northern Marinas: 863.3
SC: 854.8 (% uninsured 2012: 14.3; 7/14 years below 15; 13/14 years below 20)

Almost never below 10% uninsured, all go above 15% uninsured at least once, about half go above 15% more than half of the time. Occasionally some go above 20%.

Bottom line: there is indeed a correlation between % insured and lower death rate, but it seems there are also other things going on (I suspect education and poverty may be impinging...possibly ethnic issues and bigotry as well.)

DEATH BY FIREARMS:

I believe the 2nd Amendment should be treated just like the 1st Amendment and all other parts of the Constitution. But I also want to know the numbers. Here I want to look at the hypothesis that states that have more lenient firearm laws have more deaths due to firearms than states with strict firearm laws. I also want to look for correlations between firearm laws and crime rates. Again I am not taking the time to do as thorough an analysis as I would if this was my job, but I think the results are interesting.

Deaths due to firearms per 100,000

Below 7
HI: 3.2 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 239.2; Property crime rate per 100,00: 3,075.2; Guns and Ammo ranking: 46)
MA: 4.1 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 405.5; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,153.0; Guns and Ammo ranking: 48)
RI: 4.6 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 252.4; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,572.3; Guns and Ammo ranking: 42)
NY: 5.1 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 406.8; Property crime rate per 100,00: 1,922.0; Guns and Ammo ranking: 50)
NJ: 5.2 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 290.2; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,047.3; Guns and Ammo ranking: 49)
CT: 5.9 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 283.0; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,140.0; Guns and Ammo ranking: 45)
IA: 6.8 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 263.9; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,271.8; Guns and Ammo ranking: 38)
MN: 6.8 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 230.9; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,568.3; Guns and Ammo ranking: 39)

Above 15
AK: 20.4 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 603.2; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,739.4; Guns and Ammo ranking: 3)
LA: 19.2 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 496.9; Property crime rate per 100,00: 3,540.6; Guns and Ammo ranking: 17)
AL: 16.2 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 449.9; Property crime rate per 100,00: 3,502.2; Guns and Ammo ranking: 7)
MS: 16.1 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 260.8; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,811.0; Guns and Ammo ranking: 18)
WY: 15.6 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 201.4; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,293.8; Guns and Ammo ranking: 6)
MT: 15.4 (Violent crime rate per 100,00: 272.2; Property crime rate per 100,00: 2,583.7; Guns and Ammo ranking: 11)

Not a major correlation between crime rates and firearm deaths, though the states with the top three firearm deaths per year ALSO have higher violent crime rates than any of the low firearm death states. But AL vs. MS and HI vs MA show the correlation may be misleading. (NOTE this study showing a correlation between firearm ownership and homicide rates for the 1990's: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/... ; also see: http://www.sciencedaily.com/... )

Good correlation between firearm friendliness (based on Guns and Ammo rankings) and firearm deaths. ALL of the states with the highest firearm deaths are considered very gun friendly by Guns and Ammo. ALL of the states with the lowest in firearm deaths are less firearms friendly than half of the states in the union, and include the LEAST firearm friendly states. But this is not the whole story since, for example, VT is number 2 firearm friendly and isn't high in firearm deaths. But it is one of the strongest correlations I could find.

I remain convinced that poverty (as addressed by things like minimum wage and safety nets) and education (as addressed by large increases in education funding) are the keys to most of these issues. But I also think better sex ed and more lenient laws on abortion and contraception availability DO help reduce teen pregnancy, more health insurance coverage DOES help reduce death rates, and the MOST lenient gun laws correlate with higher firearm death rates but NOT with reduced crime rates.

Other factors are involved, but we can't ignore these numbers.

Originally posted to mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 11:12 AM PST.

Also republished by State & Local ACTION Group and Community Spotlight.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Bravo for a quantitative look in a DK diary! (5+ / 0-)
    •  Well... (6+ / 0-)

      It's what I do. I am a scientist...so I like to think quantitatively, though I also know correlation and causation are not the same thing.

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 11:25:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bravo! - For exploring some of the individual (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mole333

        factors and confounding problems that cause different mortality rates - state by state. The risk of dying varies a lot across the nation.

        Correlations in such complex problems do show that two measured variables are related and that there is cause for further study. Richard Florida wrote two articles about the limit of drawing conclusions of law/policy from state rates of firearm fatality.

        The Geography of Gun Violence by Richard Florida, July 20, 2012
        The Geography of Gun Deaths by Richard Florida, January 13, 2011

        The map above charts firearm deaths for the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Note that these figures include accidental shootings, suicides, even acts of self-defense, as well as crimes. As of 2007, 10.2 out of every 100,000 people were killed by firearms across the United States, but that rate varies dramatically from state to state. In Hawaii, at the low end, it was 2.6 per 100,000; in New York and New Jersey it was 5.0 and 5.2 respectively. At the high end, 21.7 out of every 100,000 residents of the District of Columbia were killed by guns, 20.2 in Louisiana, 18.5 in Mississippi, and 17.8 in Alaska. Arizona ranked eighth nationally, with 15.1 deaths per 100,000.

        With these data in hand, I decided to look at the factors associated with gun deaths at the state level. With the help of my colleague Charlotta Mellander, we charted the statistical correlations between firearm deaths and a variety of psychological, economic, social, and political characteristics of states. As usual, I point out that correlation does not imply causation, but simply points to associations between variables.

        Question about your data source(s)? Did I miss it? Or would you please post a link?  Please correct me if I'm mistaken, should your "firearm deaths" section be labeled firearm murders instead?

        "They did not succeed in taking away our voice" - Angelique Kidjo - Opening the Lightning In a Bottle concert at Radio City Music Hall in New York City - 2003

        by LilithGardener on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 03:30:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  But Any Number of Education Sources Say Education (5+ / 0-)

    quality and success declines with poverty. It's certainly the dominant pattern in this country.

    So poverty is almost certainly the single most important factor.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 11:19:30 AM PST

    •  Yes but... (4+ / 0-)

      There are also studies that show education correlates with reducing poverty. I think both are the two most critical factors. More education funding, more jobs and higher minimum wage would, all put together, go a LONG way to helping America on almost all fronts...add in infrastructure and then we'd be golden. Or at least bronze ; -)

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 11:24:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  People who are more (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mole333, ban nock, arlene

        educated are less likely to be poor, but that doesn't mean investing in education actually reduces poverty.

        In order to reduce poverty the most important thing we can do is create more and better jobs. Better schools only create jobs in schools or perhaps from creating more entrepreneurs. Otherwise we have more of what we have now, a well-educated and underemployed workforce.

        We Dems have been for too long talking about economic inequality and poverty in terms of health care and education, though, which are only indirectly economic issues, and are more symptoms of the problem. In order to really address inequality and poverty we need to focus on real economic issues like wages, industrial and labor policies, trade, etc.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 11:49:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Studies (2+ / 0-)

          I don't have them at my fingertips (again no one pays me for this!) but I recall several studies done in the last couple of decades that showed a strong correlation between funding for education and reducing poverty. However I certainly agree with you that reducing poverty will also influence almost everything else you or I would look at. So I agree with your basic premise but might disagree in terms of how education might contribute...still, I think we are at least on the same chapter if not on the exact same page.

          Income inequality and racial inequality are HUGE and under appreciated by many Dems.

          FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

          by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 12:10:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Education is tightly linked to having a skilled (0+ / 0-)

            workforce. It's a no brainer.

            "They did not succeed in taking away our voice" - Angelique Kidjo - Opening the Lightning In a Bottle concert at Radio City Music Hall in New York City - 2003

            by LilithGardener on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 03:32:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Like the guy with a post grad degree flipping (0+ / 0-)

              burgers. Skilled but still poor.

              “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

              by ban nock on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 03:53:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  you have to have the education and jobs available (0+ / 0-)

              jobs don't just appear once you get your degree.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 04:33:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  yeah, I'm sure the reason NM is on the teen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mole333, Mayfly

      pregnancy list despite an A from NARAL is because its one of the poorest states.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 11:50:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The differences in life expectancy across the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mole333

    states are also astounding. MS (unsurprisingly) has the lowest life expectancy--75 years. This compares with countries  like Jamaica and Paraguay. The top 10 or 12 states have life expectancies over 80 years, like most other first world countries. The difference in life expectancy between Hi and MS is almost 8 years.

    •  Yes... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue jersey mom

      I assumed mortality rate would be similar to life expectancy, so I only did the one...time constraint. Would however be interesting to see how much they agree.

      Now, one thing that I thought of, right or wrong, about your life expectancy numbers is let's make sure we get those people living longer in the bluer states voting!

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 12:14:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  as a poker player... (3+ / 0-)

    I am always looking for patterns and as a sports fan I love stats. Good work. Now we need to get funding for you to do statistical analysis and me to write jokes. We need a rich benefactor.

    I sing praises in the church of nonsense, but in my heart I'm still an atheist, demanding sense of all things.

    by jbou on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 11:45:02 AM PST

    •  Well... (3+ / 0-)

      Unless I get a job in the meantime, I will be unemployed by May, 2014. So if someone has an offer...

      And if someone has a LARGE enough offer for me I'd be happy to be your benefactor...

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 12:16:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  send you resume... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mole333, ColoTim

        to Nate Silver ESPN and ABC hired him to do for advanced metrics, sports and politics what Bill Simmons did for sports and pop culture on Simmons' Grantland website.

        I sing praises in the church of nonsense, but in my heart I'm still an atheist, demanding sense of all things.

        by jbou on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 12:24:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hmm... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jbou, ColoTim

          Nate silver is not someone I have communicated with (though Bill Clinton, John Kerry, and the like are!). My guess is he doesn't know me from Adam...or Eve...or Nebuchadnezzar.

          As I approach unemployment, I realize I can do just about anything anyone wants me to do. But it is really hard to slant my resume the way people want to see since I have been a research scientist by profession for so long.

          FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

          by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 01:40:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I have had this idea bouncing around in my head... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mole333, Mayfly, ColoTim

            for a couple of months. Like I said patterns and stats are my thing so I was thinking about doing an advanced metrics for life website. It would be an antidote to the stuff Gladwell and the rest of his ilk do, but alas I'm but an entertainer you sir are a scientist and could make something like that work.

            I sing praises in the church of nonsense, but in my heart I'm still an atheist, demanding sense of all things.

            by jbou on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 01:56:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I could... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jbou, ColoTim

              I can do so much when it comes to numbers...and communication...my wife is even better than I am when it comes to the numbers, but not really the communication end. I have looked into science policy jobs but they are all in DC and I am probably stuck in NYC...though I have suggested to my wife that we could rent out our apartment in NYC for a couple of years while we BOTH did science policy in DC. But we'd need something pretty definite.

              So far the only leads I have (and they are all tenuous) are not science policy but more marketing. I am okay with that since it seems the main market I am qualified for. But policy would be great.

              FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

              by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 02:11:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I'm always looking for people that can come to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DaNang65

        work on time and lift 80lbs. You'd be free to think of statistics all you want as long as you keep working.

        “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

        by ban nock on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 03:55:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  The mortality quoted, is it age-adjusted? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mole333, Mayfly, ban nock

    I'd assume it is, but it's not mentioned in the diary.

    The percent insured is not age adjusted-- I wonder if that makes a difference. Being uninsured in your twenties is not nearly as death-promoting as being uninsured in your fifties.

  •  Teen pregnancy rates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    i saw an old tree today

    Did you look at correlation with income? The states with low teen pregnancy rates are among the richest, and the states with the high teen pregnancy rates are among the poorest.

  •  Teen pregnancy - successful pilot program in NYC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mole333, i saw an old tree today

    New York City’s Teen Pregnancy Rate Plummeted After High Schools Expanded Access To Plan B

    The teen pregnancy rate in New York City dropped by 27 percent over the last decade, a statistic that city officials credit to teens’ expanded access to contraception.

    [...]

    That’s partly because New York is one of the 21 states that allows all minors to have access to contraceptive services — and two years ago, the public school system began a pilot program to provide Plan B to public school students in districts with high rates of unintended pregnancy:

    The city has worked to make it easier for kids to get birth control — giving out condoms at schools and making birth control and the morning-after pill available in some school clinics, a sometimes controversial move.

    Farley said the numbers show that strategy is working.
    “It shows that when you make condoms and contraception available to teens, they don’t increase their likelihood of being sexually active. But they get the message that sex is risky,” he said. [...]

    I'll venture that some of these teens have had no access healthcare other than the nurse's office and the ER.

    "They did not succeed in taking away our voice" - Angelique Kidjo - Opening the Lightning In a Bottle concert at Radio City Music Hall in New York City - 2003

    by LilithGardener on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 03:41:53 PM PST

  •  I'd like to see age adjusted for firearm rates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mole333

    Wyoming for instance has extremely low firearm homicide rate but extremely high suicides of elderly by firearms. Just as the death rate was age adjusted in Kos' diary I think it would be helpful for firearms also.

    I think lenient gun laws correlate to low incidence of firearm homicide because people have little to fear, yet because suicide rises with age, they use the best method readily available.

    Likewise some of the most restrictive states or municipalities have the highest firearm homicides. People restrict what they have a higher likelihood of dying from. (DC, Chicago)

    “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

    by ban nock on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 03:51:06 PM PST

    •  Age Adjusted Homicide Rates - state by state (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mole333, i saw an old tree today

      2004-2010, United States
      Age-adjusted Death Rates per 100,000 Population
      Firearm, Homicide, All Races, All Ethnicities, Both Sexes, All Ages
      Annualized Age-adjusted Rate for United States: 4.00

      Firearms Homicide, 2004-2010, United States, Age-adjusted Death Rates per 100,000 Population, Firearm, Homicide, All Races, All Ethnicities, Both Sexes, All Ages, Annualized Age-adjusted Rate for United States: 4.00, Reports for All Ages include those of unknown age. The standard population for age-adjustment represents the year 2000, all races, both sexes.
      Map of Firearms Homicide Rates, State by State, 2004-2010, United States, Age-adjusted Death Rates per 100,000 Population, National Average is 4.00 / 100,000 persons
      DATA mapped with CDC-WISQARS

      Reports for All Ages include those of unknown age.
      The standard population for age-adjustment represents the year 2000, all races, both sexes.


      Rates for each state

      Success has many fathers: These 24 states have homicide rates about 20% or more below the national average. Approximately 28% of the nation lives in these 24 states.

                             
          State        Age Adjusted Homicide Rate        National Population (%)   
          ND        0.59        0.22%   
          NH        0.62        0.43%   
          HI        0.64        0.44%   
          SD        0.81        0.26%   
          VT        0.85        0.21%   
          IA        0.97        1.00%   
          ME        0.98        0.44%   
          UT        1.19        0.86%   
          ID        1.29        0.50%   
          WY        1.35        0.18%   
          MN        1.38        1.73%   
          OR        1.49        1.23%   
          RI        1.58        0.35%   
          MT        1.66        0.32%   
          MA        1.70        2.14%   
          WA        1.90        2.15%   
          NE        2.00        0.59%   
          WI        2.02        1.86%   
          CO        2.19        1.60%   
          CT        2.40        1.17%   
          NY        2.70        6.38%   
          KS        2.73        0.93%   
          WV        2.89        0.61%   
          NJ        3.21        2.89%   

      The middle of the pack: This group of 15 states have homicide rates near the national average (+/- 20%). Approximately 51% of the nation lives in these 15 states.

                             
          State        Age Adjusted Homicide Rate        National Population (%)   
          AK        3.26        0.23%   
          KY        3.34        1.41%   
          OH        3.59        3.82%   
          VA        3.70        2.57%   
          IN        3.86        2.12%   
          OK        3.94        1.21%   
          TX        4.05        7.91%   
          NM        4.15        0.66%   
          DE        4.35        0.29%   
          CA        4.38        12.08%   
          NV        4.39        0.85%   
          PA        4.42        4.17%   
          FL        4.50        6.06%   
          IL        4.65        4.22%   
          NC        4.75        3.02%   

      Failure has many fathers: This group of 12 states have homicide rates more than 20% above the national average. Approximately 21% of the nations lives in these 12 states. (Actually 11 states + the District of Columbia).

                             
          State        Age Adjusted Homicide Rate        National Population (%)   
          GA        5.01        3.08%   
          MI        5.13        3.32%   
          MO        5.25        1.95%   
          AR        5.36        0.94%   
          AZ        5.39        2.03%   
          TN        5.40        2.04%   
          SC        5.50        1.47%   
          MD        6.79        1.88%   
          AL        6.99        1.55%   
          MS        7.26        0.97%   
          LA        10.00     1.48%   
          DC        17.67     0.19%   
                     

      Success/failure has many fathers.

      Homicide rates peaked in the mid 90s, gradually declined  for many years and have plateaued in recent years. Two popular reasons often cited as explanations are a) loose/strict gun laws, b) discontinuing tetraethyl lead in gasoline. Neither can explain differences in homicide rates

      Compare DC vs. NY (both tight gun laws - divergent homicide rates).
      Compare NH vs. HI (loose vs. tight gun laws - equal homicide rates).
      Compare NY or CT vs. CO (tight vs. looser gun laws - similar homicide rates).
      Compare CA vs. PA (tight vs. loose gun laws - similar homicide rates).

      Louisiana and DC appear to be outliers.

      In contrast, the majority of firearms deaths are suicides. Firearm suicides have been rising, very sharply among some sub-populations.

      "They did not succeed in taking away our voice" - Angelique Kidjo - Opening the Lightning In a Bottle concert at Radio City Music Hall in New York City - 2003

      by LilithGardener on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 05:49:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Came across that but didn't take note... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LilithGardener

      I did see an age adjusted firearm stat but didn't take note of it. SO don't have that handy.

      FREEDOM ISN'T FREE: That's why we pay taxes! Find me on Linkedin.

      by mole333 on Fri Dec 27, 2013 at 05:51:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  A demurrer (0+ / 0-)

    You might also wish to take into account things such as the murder rate in two cites of similar size, Chicago (strict gun control, about 16 homicides per 100K) and the homicide rate in Houston (liberal gun possession laws, murder rate around 9 per 100K). Not to mention that overall the Chicago rate has been up and the Houston rate down. So, the thesis of the "Good correlation between firearm friendliness..and firearm deaths" will need some work still.

    http://www.city-data.com/...
    http://www.city-data.com/...
    For both, scroll down to crime stats.

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