Ahoy, USS Obama. There's a reef ahead, the shoals approacheth, and the winds are unpredictable. What will it be? A change in course? Full speed ahead? Damn the torpedoes? A Brave New World Order?
SOTU HISTORY
2009 - Obama calls for cutting bloated government, austerity, tax cuts to fix the economy
2010 - Obama calls for moderate austerity, stabbing the under- and un-employed in the back
2011 - Obama calls for cutting budget deficit, stabbing every respectable economist in the back
2012 - Obama stabs single payer proponents in the back, seeks to make his executive branch efficient by cutting staff, and claims we have the strongest foreign ties ever, just before Snowden released his bombshells
2013 - Obama calls for enacting Simpson Bowles, stabbing America's recovery in the back
Lest you think I be too harsh, use teh blissed google and peruse the texts of the speeches he gave. Hell, even today's advisors are embarrassed by his first SOTU.
To say that I am not excited about tonight oratory exercise is to admit that the Pacific might indeed be damp. Even worse, he will repeat some of the same ideas he raised in prior years, then promptly drop them by tomorrow. Worst of all, the ideas will be tepid, reaching not for the stars, but for the stairs.
FROM THE CHURCH OF INEFFABLE STUPIDITY:
Partly as a PR move, and partly to maintain some relationships with the media, especially that lazy, unproductive, lapdog-based, non-inquisitive, smug, and self-satisfied group known as the White House Press Corpse, much of the speech has already been produced and discussed, although a few details may remain hidden until tonight.
Still, enough has been deliberately leaked to give us certain truths, truths that we hold to be self-evident. That all men may have been created equal, but there is no way in hell that Obama will risk his fractured relationship with the GOP to pursue a real, substantive, and workable anti-poverty program. Instead, he will repeat his previous pablum and cold oatmeal words of the past - Innovate! Work hard! Opportunity! Education! Anyone seeking a real solution, or a large, new investment in people will be sorely disappointed.
It is guaranteed that he will mention some Creator, guaranteed to be of the christian flavor, with more than a few breadcrumbs thrown to the religious reich. (I guarantee that he will finish up with that horrid "God Bless America," without which a bill of impeachment would likely be drawn up)
Whether he goes so far as to mention Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness is very much in doubt. Mentioning "Life" without calling for life sentences in private industry prisons for those convicted of minor marijuana possession would piss off some small minded police and DEA employees, while completely angering your standard Fax News Viewer.
Liberty? Those caught in the virtual chains of poverty, under- and un-employment, or having one's unemployment benefits cut have Liberty, all right. The Liberty to starve and freeze to death.
Pursuit of Happiness? Damned straight. In fact, every time that you pursue happiness, and play a game of Angry Birds, you send all your private data to the NSA. How's that for happiness?
Will there be an honest accounting of a GOP led Congress' utter failure to do its job? Doubtful. Will there be a major surprise, a new space race, a new investment in schools and infrastructure, in jobs, and a better safety net? Not a chance in hell. Will there be any mention of investment in the people, without promising some additional ass-backwards, counterproductive tax cut? Absolutely not. Regardless of what economists, the economy, and the public at large are telling him, he is a tax cutting, austerity based, budget deficit hawk at heart, and this speech will reflect that sorry, sad truth.
In reviewing SOTUs, one from several decades ago took me by surprise. That president demanded that we change how we relate to the USSR, and disarm before we blow each other up. He promised to clean up our water and our air, he promised to fix social security, the VA, and help the downtrodden and poor with new programs and better education. Despite being a Republican, his SOTU sounded like a progressive's wet dream. The chances of his being allowed into a GOP convention of today are zilch, and not because he resigned his office in disgrace. No, they would shoot him down because his ideas in his SOTU were too big, too progressive, and too liberal. His name was Richard Nixon. And Tricky Dicky had more and better liberal ideas than Obama ever will.
Don't blow up at the messenger. I am simply delivering a sad message. I, too want better and more democrats in office. But I also recall that this president demanded that if we on the left wanted something, we had to push him to do it.
We did so, we started petitions, letters, and we phoned the White House. We put pressure on Obama to move to the left. Despite his earlier plea for just that kind of pressure, how did the real Obama respond? He sent Rahm out to tell us to Fuck Off.
I would love to be happily surprised by this SOTU. Sadly, it won't happen.