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Comment Preferences

  •  Everyone hates Jean Quan (4+ / 0-)

    (apparently, anyway).

    Not that I follow Oakland at all, but what's the story here?

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 05:12:03 PM PST

  •  Minimum wage on the ballot (12+ / 0-)

    http://ballotpedia.org/...

        Alaska Minimum Wage Increase (2014)
        Arkansas Minimum Wage Initiative (2014)
        California Minimum Wage Increase Initiative (2014)
        California Minimum Wage Home Health Workers (2014)
        Idaho Minimum Wage Initiative (2014)
        Massachusetts Minimum Wage Increase Initiative (2014)
        Michigan Minimum Wage Initiative (2014)
        Missouri Minimum Wage Initiative (2014)
        New Mexico Minimum Wage Amendment (2014)
        South Dakota Increased Minimum Wage Measure (2014)

  •  NJ-Gov: I heard Majority Leader Asm. Greenwald (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    speak at my Dem club this week.  I think I know who I want Dems to run for Governor next.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 05:15:09 PM PST

    •  What about Steve Fulop? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      I thought he was a rising star in NJ, Bill Clinton seems to like him a lot considering he held a big fundraiser for him back in 2013.

      •  Haven't heard him speak yet. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 05:22:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I hope to get a variety of potential candidates (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, gabjoh

        to listen to.  Lou Greenwald is just so real, intelligent, and pragmatic.  
        He told us that while the value of his property has increased 60% since he bought it in '98, his property tax has doubled since then.  He said that the Lou Greenwald of today can afford it, but the Greenwald of the '90s would not be able to and that high property taxes (we're the highest in the nation overall) are going to disincentivize new homebuyers here more and more.  He drew a parallel to the expensive cost of auto insurance in the '90s here in NJ.  When he convinced Gov. McGreevey a decade ago to sign a law to revamp the DMV and create safe driver scoring, auto insurance costs have declined greatly.  It used to be in people's top 3 concerns in the state and now it's no longer in the top 10.  He suggests that municipalities be granted the ability to opt for levying a 1% income tax and 1% grocery tax (if they approve it) as a way to take the burden off the property tax system (which is a large share of local revenue sources).  The property tax system of NJ, he said, is a remnant of colonial times when the colonial governors would levy large taxes on the major landowners (planters, estates, etc.) as an easy source of revenue.  In exchange, the landowners would be eligible for election to county government councils called a Board of Chosen Freeholders ("freehold" being an archaic legalese word for "estate") so they would have a say in how their taxes were spent.

        After Greenwald left, the whole club and I was left in amazement and we all agreed we liked him better than...Cory Booker.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 07:33:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Property tax (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, KingofSpades

          holds down real-estate market price, in markets where residential real estate tends to be bid up to the highest level folks can qualify for.  If you lower property tax in a typical high-dollar real estate market, market prices come up (since people buy as much house as they can 'afford') and future buyers end up paying the same money to banks/developers instead of state/local government (which they have to make up somewhere else), which like property tax also offsets federal revenue via the mortgage interest exemption.  One cohort of current upper-middle-class property owners benefits, along with the rentiers, otherwise lowering property tax is a win for the 1%.

          Property tax should exempt the first X dollars of value on the first home (say 2 times median household income for the state) and then have increasing tiered rates as parcel value goes up.  Renters should receive an equivalent benefit to the exemption via a refundable income tax credit.

          Grocery taxes are pretty close to evil, in terms of incidence.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 08:41:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I may have misquoted him on (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            benamery21

            the grocery tax thing.  He did say a local option for towns to opt for a 1% income tax plus a 1% tax on something else that I may have misremembered as groceries.

            He says that lowering the property tax burden will help younger adults enter into homeownership and as they grow their salaries, the 1% taxes will not be a problem to pay.

            NJ has the highest property taxes in the nation and every other half-measure taken has failed thus far, including Christie's passed cap on income tax increases.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 11:49:06 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Googling (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, KingofSpades, gabjoh

              some of the things he has said on this issue leads me to believe that I have some common ground with him.  Anything to do with the nexus between income tax and property tax is complicated.  The details matter, a lot.  It sounds like he is talking about restoring an increased marginal income tax on top (>$1M) incomes (which existed under Corzine) to provide income tax relief to low and middle-class (up to $250K household income) homeowners who have a property tax bill.  I would support such a measure if it also provided commensurate relief for renters on whom the incidence of property tax paid by landlords on rental properties falls.

              Often, property tax relief is a stalking horse for assisting the well-off, including real estate, finance, and development interests.  It sounds like Greenwald intends his proposal to be at least slightly progressive, although I'd rather the rebate was a high percentage of the first few thousand paid, rather than 20% up to $10K, since this will give bigger benefits to the better-off.

              P.S. If we continue this we should probably move to the policy thread.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:16:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think this is (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              some some sort of panacea, like some appear to, and I am not sure how much it might really apply to NJ as a whole as opposed to urban areas, but I wonder how much help building up to get more people into an area would be. Perhaps being too broad, if you need a certain amount of money to fund government services, you can probably spread the costs a little more easily if there are more people. It's also probably helpful for seniors, I'd think, who might want to stay in the area but don't want to keep up a full property or can't afford to do so.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:33:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I also wonder what sort of effect the ACA (0+ / 0-)

              will have on health care costs for state and local governments, if any. I don't think there's been any sort of study, and there are still issues with pensions, but any sort of money saved would probably be helpful in dealing with taxes.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:35:26 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Won't run as longas Sweeney is running (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:53:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Trenton, NJ Mayor. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Tony Mack is finally out and the city council president is wearing the mayor's hat pro tem and does not want the job. This is going to be interesting.

    •  Well, glad that finally happened. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Took too long.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 06:36:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was Tony Mack's horrendous management (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that left the Trenton area (including my undergrad college) without potable water for a week!

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 06:37:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm loving the FL-13 cat fud (4+ / 0-)

    The fact that they're trying to pin the blame for a loss the weekend before the election tells me that their internal polling may paint a different picture than what the few public polls have shown...

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 05:29:31 PM PST

  •  CA-31: More endorsements for Gomez Reyes. (7+ / 0-)

    From Congresswomen Royball-Allard, Speier, and Napolitano.

    •  CA-31, DCCC (3+ / 0-)

      Not sure if the DCCC really is neutral now in this race, or still pulling strings for Aguilar.

      There was a well written LA Times article on this race yesterday:
      http://www.latimes.com/...

      It will be interesting to see if Aguilar or Reyes get the California Democratic Party's endorsement at their convention this weekend (or if the state party stays neutral).

      •  I imagine they'll stay neutral (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        benamery21, MichaelNY

        Aguilar and Gomez Reyes are both strong candidates. It's a shame we have to pick. Though Aguilar is only 34(!), so if he loses this round (as I increasingly suspect he will), he'll be able to come back in short order.

        26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 07:57:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      She's building an endorsement list quickly after that blowout 4th quarter fundraising performance.  Note, it's Roybal-Allard, only one L in Roybal.   Two LA county Latina Dem Reps, one SF Bay area female NHW Dem Rep.  

      Aguilar announced Jerry McNerney's endorsement on 3/5, bringing his count to 15 members of CA's Dem House delegation, as well as one Senator (DiFi 2/27).

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:38:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  At Ca Dem convention (0+ / 0-)

      There were a ton of people for her there

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

      by Alibguy on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:07:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interested in WA's (7+ / 0-)

    dueling gun issue ballot measures this fall.  I-591 would limited background checks on gun sales unless required by the federal government. I-594 would create background checks on all gun sales.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    The last time there were two ballot measures that were complete opposites of each other was in 2005 with two measures involving tort reform, I-330 and I-336. Both sides spent as much time urging people to reject the other measure as they did asking people to vote for their own. In the end, both were defeated.

    I'm wondering if we could end up seeing the same result here.

    Age 26, conservative Republican, Washington State's Third District.

    by KyleinWA on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 06:44:33 PM PST

  •  TX-Gov: my disenchantment with Davis... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, Jacob1145, MichaelNY

    ...is reinforced in this interview by Chuck Todd of Democratic state Senator and L.G. nominee Leticia Van de Putte:  http://www.msnbc.com/...

    The relevant part of the interview starts at 6:58, when Todd asks Van de Putte if her fate isn't tied to Davis', and Van de Putte, without Todd having prompted her to say anything like this, admits the Davis campaign "stumbled" recently.

    When your closest political ally on a shared ticket feels compelled to say that, you know you've effed up.

    Meanwhile, I thought Van de Putte was very good in this interview, stayed on message and a smooth delivery, reasonably polished.  I like her.  I have no idea how good (or bad?) a campaign Van de Putte herself has supposedly run, but what I've seen looks good.

    I do hope, assuming Dan Patrick wins the GOP runoff, Van de Putte can make a real race of it.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 07:21:56 PM PST

    •  If Van de Putte wins the LG (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145, MichaelNY

      That'll be an interesting dynamic with her and Abbott (assuming Davis loses Gov).

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 09:48:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It'll be frigging huge (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, betelgeux, pademocrat, MichaelNY

        she'll probably get 44-45% because Patrick is out-there and TX is inflexible (which has made turning the state competitive increasingly hard).  If she won, that would be massive.  Also, the LG has more power than the Governor.  The LG for TX is, by design, a very hands-on Senate President.  He/she presides over the State Senate, acts as chief arbiter in setting the rules, makes the committee assignments, and sets the floor agenda.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:19:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I thought Perry transferred at least some power (0+ / 0-)

          from the LG to the Governor's office, since he was both LG before Bush and has been governor for more than a decade now.

          26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:25:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, but those listed powers still apply I think (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            wwmiv, trowaman, or someone would know for sure, I'm sure.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:32:28 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  My thoughts. (7+ / 0-)

      I don't have the most well-informed opinion - others who are closer to the ground would know better than me - but my impression is that Van de Putte is about as strong a candidate as we could have gotten for LG. I have also said all along that this is the statewide race we are most likely to win, thanks to the likelihood that we'd be running against Dan Patrick, who is awful - a self-promoting, bigoted radio talk show host who is loathed by other republicans in the state government. The potential for him to say something awful, and for his co-partisans to abandon him in the aftermath, is fairly high.

      Having said that, I don't think it's actually likely that we can win this race. I pretty much agree with whoever it was on here that said that the Republicans' floor in Texas is above 50% (for now). It would require an Akin-like implosion for Van de Putte to pull it off.

      The longer-term question that I wonder about is this: with Abbott and Patrick poised to be running the show, Texas Republican politics are poised to take a turn hard to the right. I wonder how this will play out on immigration, and for hispanic voters in general. Will Texas become like Arizona or one of the deep south states, with a heavy strain of anti-immigrant xenophic politics? If so, will hispanics become more mobilized, and more solidly democratic?

      This is one case where i'm rooting against the outcome that would benefit democrats in the long-run. The thought of Texas politics taking such an ugly turn is just too depressing.

      •  Do you think her candidacy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        can mean good things for us as part of the process of rebuilding--not just in the theoretical sense, but in the sense that her being a compelling candidate who, along with Davis (assuming she doesn't underperform), can do well and help us strengthen the party, even if they can't get over the hump?

        You could probably spin the numbers in a lot of ways, but either candidate doing well, outside of a situation where things take a nice turn in our direction and we romp all over, would be very encouraging to other candidates, both in and out of state. It's a long time away, and a lot can happen from now until then, but getting to, say, 47 percent would be a solid indicator the state might be ready to contest at the presidential level.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 11:29:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  You're third paragraph is important (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Its something I think will be the change that Texas Democrats need.

        As much as we think that Bush and Perry are idiots, they did an excellent job at appealing to latinos, and this new texas GOP lead by Abbott and Patrick I think will begin to alienate them in a way like latinos were in California in the 90's. California went from a swing state to a strongly blue state.

        The loons in the Texas GOP will change Texas to a swing state if hispanics find them reprehensible which I think we can count on the tea party to deliver.

        •  doesn't Abbott have a hispanic wife? n/t (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          formerly demographicarmageddon

          by bonzo925 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:56:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Cecilia Phalen had an Irish-American father and Mexican-American mother.  Her maternal grandparents were Mexican immigrants.

            She married him 2 years before his crippling accident, and has stood by him for 29 years since.  

            She was previously a member of the Texas State Board for Educator Certification.  Both of her parents were teachers.

            Greg Abbott supports doubling border security, compares South Texas to a corrupt 3rd world country, invites Ted Nugent to Texas, hired a staffer who thought it was a good idea to play "Catch an Illegal immigrant" with college students, actively disenfranchised Hispanics as Attorney general, and used state money to defend those violations of the VRA, does not support the Dream Act, wants 'reform' of Texas law allowing undocumented residents to pay in-state college tuition, fought for and won the execution of a Mexican national, etc.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:27:59 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  ok (0+ / 0-)

              doubling border security - agree
              South Texas to corrupt third world country - jury's out
              inviting Ted Nugent - disagree
              disenfranchising hispanics - disagree
              state money to defend vra violations - disagree
              dream act - i support it but with a minimum SAT cutoff
              in-state tuition for non citizens - again minimum SAT score
              execution of a mexican national - disagree

              formerly demographicarmageddon

              by bonzo925 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 09:31:50 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  really, come on (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh, MichaelNY

                An SAT score? You do realize that those tests are a) bullshit, and b) designed so that the rich do better than the poor due to insane test-prep courses, right?

                The SAT measures nothing more than one's financial capacity to succeed at them.

                TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                by Le Champignon on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 09:40:42 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  that's not the case at all! (0+ / 0-)

                  The idea of the SAT was to find kids who have a potential for success who would otherwise be overlooked. In the old days, schools would just go searching at places like Exeter and Andover.

                  Now the SAT gives kids in the South Bronx a chance to be noticed.

                  formerly demographicarmageddon

                  by bonzo925 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 09:44:41 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yeah, no (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    gabjoh, MichaelNY

                    That may be the intent, but that's not how it ended up working out. The SAT is a joke.

                    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                    by Le Champignon on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:02:09 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  what other method of cognitive skill is there to (0+ / 0-)

                      assess students? I'm not necessarily against your idea of scrapping the SAT for something else. But what would it be? ACT? AFQT?

                      formerly demographicarmageddon

                      by bonzo925 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:14:10 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Grades (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        gabjoh, MichaelNY

                        Teachers are the best way to assess the intelligence of students. This move towards standardized testing is the worst possible method of increasing 'accountability'. It doesn't test your cognitive skills, it tests your ability to pass the SAT/ACT.

                        If you'd like to know how I know that these tests are bunk, consider this. I got a 27 on my ACT composite. I actually failed the science portion and did mediocre on the math portion. I'm currently an aerospace engineering senior at the University of Texas. The ACT measured nothing.

                        But despite my feelings on standardized, multiple-choice college entrance exams, I don't buy your argument that we need to measure 'cognitive skill' in the first place. Are we to let in only the smart brown people whose parents dragged them to this country illegally? Or can we go ahead and accept the youth of America regardless of their country of birth?

                        Yeah, this is a policy discussion, so I'll just stop here.

                        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                        by Le Champignon on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:38:18 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  its objectivity (0+ / 0-)

                          SAT matters because grades don't tell you what classes the students took and often times the material is dumbed down. With everyone taking the same test, its easier to have a uniform metric stick.

                          formerly demographicarmageddon

                          by bonzo925 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:55:21 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Studies have clearly shown (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            that SAT scores have a very weak correlation with actual achievement in college, and only correlate at all to freshman year. The closest correlation, as Le Champignon says, is with high school grades. So you are not being objective, but presumptuous. I don't have the citation at my fingertips, but since you probably did well at standardized tests, since you like them so much, maybe you can prove your research skills. :-P

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 01:39:01 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Not that I think (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          propjoe

                          we ought to deport people who grew up here (see my sig line) who don't score over a certain level on an IQ test, but a 27 composite is NOT a bad ACT score.  The last 3 years that would be good for 87th percentile.  That's several standard deviations above average for college bound seniors, which is an already selective group.  

                          There is value in standardized tests, but certainly not as the sole criterion by which an individual's merit is judged, whether for college admissions or any other endeavor.  For instance, when I was 11 or so, my Dad (a high school dropout who grew up poor in WV, and finished high school by correspondence) wanted to take some college technical classes without taking a couple years of prerequisites.  He got 36's on the ACT reading and English, and tested into calculus as his first math class in community college.  I guarantee his high school record would not have allowed that without testing.

                          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                          by benamery21 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 04:48:20 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  Actually (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Chachy

                    the SAT was designed by a pseudo social scientific biological racist with the exact opposite purpose.

                    24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 02:01:59 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Considering South Texas was just (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, gabjoh, MichaelNY

                  compared to a third world country (that label by itself is fairly demeaning, even if it's unintentional), it's kind of odd that you questioned his claims on SAT scores. I've never been there, and while I imagine it might have more problems than other areas, that claim by Abbott...well, it's a little insulting, don't you think?

                  "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                  by bjssp on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 09:51:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Insulting, racist, and false. (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    gabjoh, MichaelNY, benamery21

                    Seriously, we're not going to have a discussion about whether Greg Abbott's views on brown people are reasonable, are we? I would say that conversation belongs on the policy thread, except that I don't think it belongs on this site at all.

                    •  I don't think it's up for a discussion. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I just thought it was odd that it went unmentioned instead of being smacked down for the reasons you describe.

                      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                      by bjssp on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:01:29 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Just to be crystal clear, (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Chachy, MichaelNY, benamery21

                      I completely agree that Abbott's views are objectionable. Don't think anything different.

                      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                      by bjssp on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:08:40 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Remember who made the comment (0+ / 0-)

                      It's a consistent pattern. Whites who think that blacks and browns are inferior have their own inferiority complex.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 01:40:50 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  This is not up for debate at all (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    gabjoh, MichaelNY

                    Of course Abbott's comments were beneath the pale, but my comment was regarding the 'need' to base the DREAM Act on SAT scores. Give me a break.

                    Then again, I never did believe in borders, so I'm of the opinion that the DREAM act should be applied to everyone who wants to come to America.

                    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                    by Le Champignon on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:03:43 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  So you're saying he'll appeal to hispanics, then? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, benamery21

              'Cause of the wife?

              (^joke.)

              •  I know wwmiv has posted research (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                that says there is a benefit to running someone of a similar background in a race. (I apologize if I have mischaracterized the findings, but that's how I remember it being discussed a while back. If I am wrong, please tell me.) I can believe it up to a point, but, assuming it wasn't discussed in the paper, I have to wonder how much if it is applicable on a wider scale (House district as opposed to a state) and how much of it is simply the candidate's campaign putting in extra effort with group X. That last point is key for me. Every time they talk up someone like Rubio, I remain skeptical, even if I am open-minded. There are many different groups under the banner of "Hispanic/Latino," which might limit a candidate's appeal, but beyond that, I wonder how much of a difference we'd see if, all else equal, the same sort of effort (funds spend, time spent, etc.) went into trying to flip certain ethnic votes if the only difference was the candidate. In other words, if you put the same resources into a race, and all else is equal one candidate is Marco Rubio and the other is Scott Walker, how much of a difference would we see?

                "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:00:25 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Rooting against?? (0+ / 0-)

        If it means Texas politics taking a turn more the worst for Hispanics, blacks, and liberal-moderate whites, but most importantly Hispanics, to get up off their asses and vote in droves like their counterparts in California started doing, then I will very eager and can't wait for Abbott and Patrick to start running the show down in Austin.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 11:45:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Is anyone here confident in Davis? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      I don't recall how many people here thought she might actually win, as opposed to just being happy that she supercharge efforts to build the state party, along with BGTX and others. I'm probably closer to the latter view myself, at least more recently, although I hold out hope we can at least make 'em sweat in the fall. I'm just wondering is anyone here who has been following this race very closely has had a dramatic change in his opinions.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 11:37:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think this community is more level-headed... (3+ / 0-)

        ...than the larger Daily Kos commenting community, and also more than the larger Democratic noisemakers across the country.  MSNBC talkers talk up Davis every chance they get, pretending (though not saying outright) that this is some kind of tossup race.

        I like Davis just fine, but she's a misguided choice of "liberal hero."  Better to pick heroes who can win.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:23:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think the commenters here are much, much (3+ / 0-)

          harder on female candidates than they are on male candidates and that is part of the reason for the pile-on Davis gets at DKE.  Her campaign isn't running smoothly, but she certainly isn't a disaster.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:17:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't think that is a factor here (5+ / 0-)

            DKE seems optimistic about Alison Lundergan Grimes. The problem isn't that Wendy Davis is female; it's that she's running in Texas.

            24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

            by kurykh on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:39:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I don't agree with that (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, CF of Aus, DCCyclone, lordpet8

            If anything, I think this community has a preference towards promoting greater diversity in gender and race among political candidates.

            28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:46:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I'm supporting Emily Cain in the Democratic primary in ME-02 to replace Mike Michaud. I think she's the better candidate - she seems more liberal, she's relatively young, and she's from a better part of the district. I also think she has a better chance of winning both the primary and the general.

              In New Hampshire, the top five offices (Senators, Representatives, and Governor) are all held by women. In Maine, of the same five offices, it's only Collins and Pingree. Cain would increase it to 3/5.

              It seems that most New England states without old-boy networks (cough cough, Massachusetts) have pretty good representation of women. In Connecticut, 2/5 Representatives and 3/6 statewide officeholders are women. I don't know how things are in Rhode Island and Vermont.

              (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

              by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 02:12:25 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think that's the case (0+ / 0-)

            It's because she the first credible candidate running for statewide office in Texas in quite some time. Meaning she has no room for error. She has had a few mis-steps so far, but I don't think she been a disaster. People are being more realistic about her chances. As oppose to other top female Dems running in other high profile race like Nunn and Grimes, who both have better and realistic chances than Davis.

            And to clarify my remarks above, I never said  or eluded I want people to suffer to get a desired political outcome. Despite what that user said in response. The fact is Abbott and Patrick are likely to win. And are going to make Perry and Dewhurst look like moderate in comparison. And if that what it takes for Latinos and other groups in Texas to finally get up in droves then thats what it is going to be.

            Texas would already be a competitive state if minorities and liberal whites had a higher voting participation rate.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 02:34:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  What you posted is in black and white for everyone (0+ / 0-)

              to read. Saying what you think will happen is one thing; saying "I will very eager and can't wait for Abbott and Patrick to start running the show down in Austin" is another. You may want to have an argument with yourself about what you really feel.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 02:44:24 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  She's not a liberal hero (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CF of Aus

          She took a photo op of her holding Ann Richard's old shotgun. She's a Texas hero, if anything. Most of the main pagers aren't too crazy about her. In a state like Texas, that's a good sign.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 02:48:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'm just glad (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sacman701, Avedee, James Allen

        we didn't end up with a joke like Kesha Rogers as our nominee for governor.  That was my fear for awhile, that Texas Democrats would start just forfeiting races the way Republicans are in California (seriously Orly Taitz might be their AG nominee in CA).

        •  Orly Taitz (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          some clarification, there aren't really "nominees" anymore in California with top-two, and Taitz is technically running as an independent.  But without a credible GOP candidate (to my knowledge there isn't a single declared one), and AG Harris in a dominant position, Taitz might make the top two and become, in effect, the GOP candidate in November.

          What a fall for a party that four years ago almost won this office with LA county DA Steve Cooley.

          •  AG (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            I can't find a preliminary candidate list on the SOS website, but from what I've seen Taitz is the only challenger. It surprises me that the GOP didn't at least put up a token candidate. I think any attention the race receives might hurt the GOP, since Taitz previously ran as a Republican.

            If it ends up Harris v. Taitz, Harris will probably win something like 62-38 if the race gets no attention at all and thus ends up as D incumbent v. whodat. I could see it getting as bad as 75-25 if it ends up incumbent v. conspiracy nut.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:39:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno, I'm as optimistic as one can get (0+ / 0-)

        But this race is still very much in Likely-R territory.

        I'll start writing her off in September when we have an asston of polling and more fundraising numbers. If the polling then is showing what it's showing now, I'll be happy to write her off, but I don't think anyone truly has any reliable information right now on whether Texas is willing to embrace a Democrat for the governorship or not. It is, after all, February, and Texas is a state that really doesn't take its politics seriously. And it's not like we've had any decent polling in the state - Nominee Kesha Rogers and LT-Gov Dewhurst can attest to that fact.

        I try not to write off candidates until there's sufficient reason to do so. For instance, in SD, where a popular governor is running in a red state against a tier 3 candidate who's being badly outspent and outpolled. But Texas, where an Attorney General is running a poor campaign, and who is running against someone with a) star power, and b) equal amounts of fundraising potential? No siree, I'm not going to be that presumptuous.

        I'm fond of this little xkcd comic whenever someone starts trotting out "But Texas hasn't elected a Democrat in decades!" https://xkcd.com/...

        Shit changes, is all I'm saying.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 02:45:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  HoosierD42's Weekend Judge Report (18+ / 0-)

    A light week this week, relatively.

    Confirmations

    • Pedro Delgado Hernández to the District of Puerto Rico. Cloture was 57-41-1 (Collins and Murkowski voting Aye, Hatch voting Present). Final confirmation was 98-0. The D.P.R. is now 3-4 Republican-appointed judges active (5-6 R total). Delgado Hernández replaces Daniel Dominguez, a Clinton appointee who took senior status.
    • Pamela Reeves to the Eastern District of Tennessee. Cloture was 62-37 (Alexander, Collins, Corker, Flake, Lee, McCain, Murkowski voted Aye, guess Hatch finally decided to break his streak voting Present). Final confirmation was 99-0. The E.D. Tenn is now 2-3 R active (2-6 total). Reeves replaces Thomas Phillips, a G.W. Bush appointee who too senior status.
    • Timothy Brooks to the Western District of Arkansas. Cloture was 59-41 (Boozman, Collins, Flake and Murkowski voted Aye), and final confirmation was 100-0! The W.D. Ark. is now 3-0 D active, all Obama appointees (5-1 D total). Brooks replaces Jimm Hendren, a G.H.W. Bush appointee who took senior status.
    • Vince Girdhari Chhabria to the Northern District of California. I guess Republicans saved all their opposition for Chhabria, because, outreach? I have no idea why they oppose him, he was unanimously rated Well Qualified (the ABA's highest rank). Anyway, cloture was 57-43 (Collins and Murkowski voting Aye) and confirmation was 58-41 (Alexander, Collins, Kirk and Murkowski voting Aye). The N.D. Cal is now 14-1 D active, with 10 Obama judges (18-5 D total). Chhabria replaces Susan Illston, a Clinton appointee who took senior status.

    Movement on nominations

    • Robin Rosenbaum to the 11th Circuit. Reported by voice vote. Rosenbaum was originally appointed to the Southern District of Florida by President Obama in 2012. The 11th Cir. is currently 5-3 D active (7-9 R total) with 4 vacancies and three nominations.
    • Mark Mastrioanni to the District of Massachusetts. Reported by voice vote. The D. Mass is currently 6-4 D active (7-7 total) with three vacancies (and a 4th imminent in April) and three nominations.
    • Bruce Hendricks to the District of South Carolina. Nomination was reported by a 16-2 vote (Cruz and Lee against). The D.S.C. is currently 4-4 active judges (9-6 D total) with two vacancies and two nominations.

    No new nominations this week, so that's it!

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 07:55:01 PM PST

  •  what congressional district in its current form (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    do you think has the longest running records of supporting their party's nomination for president?

    For the Ds there are a few of districts that probably haven't gone R since 1924. The key is to figure out what districts are still almost entirely urban (since a lot of districts have expanded outside the city limits). Serrano, Capuano, Rangel and Jeffries are the likely suspects.

    for the Rs, they have fewer areas that have long supported their party. The likely suspects are CA 39, 46, 48, 50; NE 3 and probably TN 1 also.

    formerly demographicarmageddon

    by bonzo925 on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 08:17:18 PM PST

  •  Besides my own Congressional Race (4+ / 0-)

    Which is here in NY CD-11 between boy breaking Michael Grimm and Domenic Recchia which I and you should have plenty of popcorn for, I'm also interested in all other Congressional and Senate races.  Additionally, there are several races for Governor that have caught my attention.  

    Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

    by Rosalie907 on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 08:17:35 PM PST

    •  I'm looking forward to Recchia winning (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      against Grimm. I'd make a "clean his clock" joke, but considering Grimm's antics...

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 09:50:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope Recchia wins also (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        To bring us closer to 218 for majority but also to stick it in the face of Grimm who also threatened me at his 1st Town Hall in Brooklyn and hasn't had one since.

        Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

        by Rosalie907 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 05:41:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What did he say to you? n/t (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Avedee

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 06:55:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Grimm threatened (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            To throw me out of the Town Hall because I didn't like the continued snaky reference to calling ACA "Obamacare."  He backed off when the press surrounded us.

            Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

            by Rosalie907 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:14:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Do we have a chance here? (0+ / 0-)

      We already have several pickup opportunities in FL-13, VA-10, FL-02, and CA-25, and that's just the ones I can think of off the top of my head. Assuming a neutral environment (non-wave, i.e. 2012), I say we'll probably gain a few seats just from seats like these with damaged or retiring incumbents in swingish seats, and offset our losses in McIntyre's and Matheson's districts. (Plus places like NY-21 that we probably won't keep.)

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:01:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Grimm has issues.  He threatened to assault a reporter in January.

        •  And a blooming onion of little ethics problems (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          How many of those do you have to swallow before you finally get sick of it?

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:16:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Grimm should have been brought (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            Up on Ethic charges but like Issa the Republicons don't bring up their own but if one of ours were to do the same things.....

            Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

            by Rosalie907 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 05:54:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not ready to write off NY-21 yet (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bjssp, James Allen

        There's potential for a serious GOP clusterfuck in the making with their star recruit (Elise Stefanik) now facing a challenge from two-time loser Matt Doheny, who is already starting to round up the Independent and Conservative Party endorsements.  If the GOP nominates Stefanik anyway, they risk a major split in the vote.  Plus this is a seat Obama won by 6 points last year...it is friendlier to Republicans downballot, but they tend to prefer moderate Republicans.

      •  Recchia has to sell himself on Staten Island (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, R30A, Avedee

        And Grimm is getting less favorability ratings on SI.  Recchia also has much more money than Grimm and the DCCC is backing him.  This is going to be a GOTV/boots on the ground race but we still don't know what the RNC and Koch are doing in this race although I believe Boehner just made a donation from his PAC to Grimm's campaign but Grimm's been using a lot of campaign money for his high priced legal defense.

        Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn but sometimes you need that bullhorn to retain your vote.

        by Rosalie907 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 05:48:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm interested in the Senate elections (7+ / 0-)

    I'll be having a ratings diary + a look at various scenarios out monday morning, if anyone's interested in taking a look at it. I'd love some feedback on it, especially negative feedback. Pick it apart and tell me what sucks/what's wrong, by all means. Tell me how to improve it.

    I'm also interested in FL-13. I think we have a good chance here, and if we win, it'll be a torpedo in two arguments that I've truly begun to loathe:

    First, that Democrats are doomed in special elections and midterms. Are people really forgetting that we were winning specials in freaking MISSISSIPPI not even six years ago, and that the midterm previous to 2010, we took both houses of Congress for the first time since 1994?

    Second, that Democrats are doomed this cycle because of Obamacare. Sink hasn't exactly shied away from Obamacare, and she's running in a swing district that isn't much bluer than, say, North Carolina. I'm the last person in the world to say that one special in one congressional district in one state gives us a sneak peek into November, but it certainly implies that the narrative being built among the Villagers is pretty damn stupid.

    (Side note: Check out Sink's website. Every time she refers to Jolly, it's as "Lobbyist Jolly". That must be an incredibly effective line.)

    (Side side note: The special is the day after my birthday, so hopefully Sink'll give me a nice belated birthday gift with her presence in congress.)

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 08:31:59 PM PST

  •  PA-GOV, PA-13, PA-HD-182 .... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ProgMD, Jacob1145

    ... and whoever's got ballot access issues, which I'll start learning on Tuesday.

  •  From Comment on Kentucky this Weekend (4+ / 0-)

    Panel: Host Bill Bryant from WKYT in Lexington, Tom Loftus from the Courier-Journal, Phillip Bailey from WFPL in Louisville, Ronnie Ellis from CNHI

    The Legislature- Sen. Damon Thayer (R-Georgetown) filed a bill to allow Rand Paul to run for reelection and President. It is dead in the Dem House. The Legislature is at its 2/3 point, and the focus is now the budget. The House version will be put forward on Tuesday. The 2.5% cut in higher education will be in the House bill. The House will adopt the budget Wednesday, and then goes to the Senate, which will pass its own version. Thayer has also been critical of a cyber security bill pushed by Auditor Adam Edelen, and called it the Edelen for Governor bill.

    Smoking Ban- Rep. Susan Westrom (D-Lexington) has said the leadership has stalled the statewide smoking ban and thinks it is dead. Ronnie Ellis thinks the reason is not to have to make rural lawmakers take a vote on the issue. Westrom is also disappointed the Governor has not pushed the issue harder. Ronnie Ellis notes that every issue is seen through the eyes of the 2014 elections, where Republicans need 5 seats to win control.

    Gay Marriage- Two Dems split. AG Jack Conway decided not to appeal a decision requiring Kentucky to recognize out of state same sex marriages. Gov. Beshear will hire outside counsel to proceed with an appeal to the 6th Circuit. Conway got very emotional during his statement, and thought the decision was correct and did not want to defend discrimination. Gov. Beshear focused on procedural issues, and said he wanted to avoid confusion, but thinks Judge Heyburn's ruling will stand. Phillip Bailey notes that the last Bluegrass Poll showed Dems split on the issue (I would note a PPP poll on the subject last year showed Dems 37-54 opposed). Rep. Gerald Watkins (D-Paducah) thinks his position will hurt him in the primary, where there are a lot of conservative Dems in the ends of the state, and in other rural areas. Tom Loftus says even Conway thinks it will hurt in 2015.

    Governor's Election 2015
    - Former Metro Louisville Councilman, and wealthy person Hal Heiner has jumped in the race. His running mate is Lexington Metro Councilwoman and 2011 Treasurer candidate K.C. Crosbie. Phillip Bailey notes the long history of unsuccessful candidates for governor from Jefferson County. He also says the Heiner campaign takes issue with the POS poll showing Ag Comm James Comer leading 42-14. Ronnie Ellis notes nobody can find out who had the poll done. Ellis and Bailey also question some of the methodology of the poll. Comer has an advantage of traveling all over the state as Ag Comm. Heiner has been stressing job creation. He also created a SuperPAC to help elect Republicans to the legislature. Also, this week, former Auditor Crit Luallen was in Washington interviewing potential campaign staffers.

    Senate Race- The panel discusses Mitch holding up the rifle at CPAC. Alison Grimes ridiculed him for not holding the gun correctly. Mitch also sent out a really nasty mailer against Matt Bevin this week, which says "Fraud Alert" on the front, and when opened is a series of attacks on Bevin.

    Civil Rights March Anniversary- This is the 50th Anniversary of the civil rights march on Frankfurt. Ronnie Ellis notes there were about 4,000 people there this year. It was used as a platform to promote the felon voting rights bill by Rep. Jesse Crenshaw (D-Lexington).

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 09:06:28 PM PST

    •  Do you think Conway will settle for LG (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      on a Crit Luallen ticket?  Has she taken a stance on the ruling?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 09:14:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No and No (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, James Allen

        Alison Grimes has the smartest position on the issue for Kentucky. She says it is a state issue and the voters in the state have spoken. And I still think that a Conway, Luallen, Edelan race gives a strong opening to former Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo (D-Hazard).

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:16:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if Paul is biting nails hoping for a (0+ / 0-)

      GOP trifecta. Can see them taking the state house but we seem to be in a good position to hold the Governor's mansion.

      D in FL at the SSP.

      by Avedee on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:48:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  they don't need it, can override a veto, IIRC. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Avedee, MichaelNY

        All they need is to take the state house.

        "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

        by James Allen on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:50:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  A majority can override a veto (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        benamery21, Avedee

        and with something like this, I'm sure they can get 100% GOP support to pass.

        The State House is a tossup based on all the experts, SID has cited.  Dems did draw the map to their benefit (not a vicious gerrymander, but a decent one) and they did field some strong candidates this year, contested more races than the GOP, and have a slight generic ballot edge per SurveyUSA last month, but the GOP will try hard for it.  The X factor is the Senate race this year.  Grimes, if she keeps it close or even wins, can help Dems in a lot of tough districts.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:53:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Mitch can't hold a rifle? (3+ / 0-)

      If so, that could be the thing that makes the difference in the election. Don't laugh: It can be used to reinforce the point that he's a fraud and not a man of the people. In a very close election, it really could make the difference. Grimes has to use footage in an ad, and I'm totally serious. Remember how Bush I used footage of Dukakis in a tank to make fun of his inauthenticity and out-of-touchness?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:12:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting perspective (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        The McConnell camp pulled the same stunt when ALG had a photo op at the firing range without ear or eye protection. But this is far more egregious an error than that, as many people use firearms without such protection. Most don't hold firearms like McConnell held his though...

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 02:51:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, I can easily foresee an ad (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Le Champignon

          Showing a still of McConnell holding his rifle wrong, accompanied by a litany of actions and statements by him showing him not to be a man of the people, and ending with Lundergan Grimes picking up a rifle and shooting it, with some tag line like "Lundergan Grimes: Taking aim at corruption in Washington."

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:54:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  And in a Dukakis moment, he won't even say (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        whether or not he even owns a gun: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

        Heh-heh.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 04:07:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Everyone knows Elmer Fudd owns a gun! (0+ / 0-)

          He's hunting demowats wabbits.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:51:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  This seems more idiotic than usual. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, MichaelNY

          If he doesn't own a gun, is it really going to cost him anything to say something along the lines of, "I don't personally own a gun. I just don't think I need one. But I respect your right to make that choice for your family and not have someone else make that choice for you. That's called freedom, and it's something ALG, Obama, and those other liberal Democrats just don't get..."?

          Who the hell is such a gun nut that they won't vote for someone unless they proudly proclaim they are packing, possibly at all times? How many of these people are already in Kentucky?

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:55:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Several foreign elections this weekend (4+ / 0-)

    Colombia is having it's parliamentary elections, El Salvador is having it's Presidential run-off and North Korea is having parliamentary elections.

    As I mentioned in a post the other day, North Korean elections are obviously a sham.  Kim Jong Un's Workers Party alliance is the only party anyone is allowed to vote for.  And even this "elected" body rarely ever meets except to rubber stamp Un's policies.

    In El Salvador - Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the left-wing FMLN party is widely expected to crush his right-wing opponent for the Presidency.  He holds leads of around 20 points in recent polls.

    Colombia looks like it's in for a bit of a shakeup.  The center-right Party of National Unity, Colombian Conservative Party and far-right Civic Option Party have numbers in the gutter and are looking at big losses.  The new Democratic Center (a centrist party) is likely to come out on top, polling in the low-20's.  The left-wing Alternative Democratic Pole party is polling very well, as is the center-left Colombian Liberal Party.  The next parliament is likely to be slightly center-right, but less conservative than the current parliament.  The left-wing parties should see decent gains overall.

    •  What's the issues with the Colombian government? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      Economy?  Scandal?  Crime?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:54:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Seems like widespread unhappiness (5+ / 0-)

        With the government of Colombia in general.  There's also a Presidential election there in May.  President Juan Manuel Santos had strong numbers for most of his time in office, but his numbers are pretty low now and his party in parliament is going to suffer big losses in the parliamentary elections.

        I wonder if the steady demise of FARC is finally helping the left and center-left parties in Colombia.  The leftist parties are finally seeing an upswing in polling.  For a very long time FARC has damaged the credibility of leftist political parties in Colombia.  That country sticks out like a sore thumb as one of the very few in South America that has not followed the continent's drift towards left-wing governments over the past decade or so.

        •  Did Santos ever get the peace agreement he was (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          fighting for with the remaining rebel groups?

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:22:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I just made this the other day (9+ / 0-)

           photo GovernmentsofLatinAmerica_zpsb93cc328.png

          Red means the left is in power, blue is the right, and purple is the center or divided between the presidency and legislature in the case of Costa Rica, but that will change for sure when the runoff takes place since the right-leaning candidate stopped campaigning. I left Cuba blank as it's a one party state as well as the smaller islands in the Caribbean for lack of clarity.

          I'm not quite sure which countries might have a president on the right/left and a parliament that requires cross spectrum support, particularly the small ones where wiki articles don't tell me much, but I know that a left-leaning coalition controls ones like Brazil even if the president's Worker's Party isn't close to a majority. I'm not sure what the governing majority in the Mexican congress consists of, but none of the three major parties has a majority, but the PRI controls the presidency.

          If anything needs correcting let me know.

          •  Thanks for the neat map! n/t (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ChadmanFL

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:55:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Poor Paraguay (0+ / 0-)

            Soon, they will be an island of blue in a seat of red.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:24:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  The right also rules via coup in Honduras (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Stephen Wolf, gabjoh, betelgeux

            Manuel Zelaya was elected in 2005, but later ousted in a coup by right-wing forced in Honduras.  His wife now carries the banner as leader of the left-wing opposition in Honduras, but lost in the 2013 Presidential election.  

          •  Left/right is pretty complex. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf

            Particularly once you get outside the United States where the definitions are completely different.  There is also something that is common in Latin America.. being "fashionably leftist."

            Historically that would be someone who believes strongly in the Cuban revolution and how the kids receive all the milk they can drink and free education and health care, etc, etc.  But of course they'd never want any of those nuts having a communist revolution in THEIR country.  Though of course from our perspective they don't exactly represent what we see is our ideals on the American left.  But the central point is there is a divide between popular leftist rhetoric and policy.  And I may add there is also a divide between passing a law and implementing said legislation.

            Brazil may have had a leftist government but they have had a very permissive government in terms of government regulation.  And while Argentina's government has been spendthrift those on the American right who lump them in with Venezuela are spending far too much time listening to Christina's words than watching her actions.  To use Mexico as a comparison (and a rough one since Argentina is nothing like Mexico) the Peronists are closer to the PRI than they are to the PRD.

            The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

            by Taget on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:06:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  For anyone who lived through the Salvadoran (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ChadmanFL, DCCyclone, gabjoh

      Civil War - or at least anyone who didn't support right-wing death squads against Marxists - the FMLN as a normal party that wins nationwide elections is exciting. For anyone who wants some basic information about the current FMLN President of El Salvador, there's a Wikipedia article about him. He sounds imperfect but very good, overall, a true socialist.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:26:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed, he's a good guy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The soon to be President Salvador Sánchez Cerén also sounds like a very good guy and dedicated socialist.  He was an FMLN commands during the Salvadorian Civil War and oversaw the FMLN's transition from revolutionary force into dominant political party post-war.

        Unfortunately the Legislature of El Salvador is pretty split as the FMLN has a poor showing in the 2012 elections, finishing 2nd to the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance.

  •  A break from elections races (8+ / 0-)

    to offer our thoughts to those affected by Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:09:34 PM PST

  •  NH-Executive Council: The special next Tuesday (5+ / 0-)

    that we haven't mentioned yet.  A longtime Republican member of the NH Exec. Council passed away recently, leaving his district open for a special election.  It's the second bluest of the Executive Council seats (at a bit over 55% Obama 2012) in the northern reaches of the state.  The Democrat has outraised the Republican so far: http://www.concordmonitor.com/...

    This is important since the executive council has veto power over contracts over $10K and on executive nominations.  They also draft the budget.  After 2012 elections, Dems got a 3-2 majority after going to a 0-5 shut-out in 2010 elections.  If they win here, they get 4-1, a majority they didn't even manage in the 2006 and 2008 waves (where they got 3-2 majority each time) and probably the biggest edge on that board since the last time Democrats were dominant prior to the '00s...which was way back in the antebellum times.  It would also help them keep their edge in elections this year where one Dem councilman represents a 50.1% Romney district.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:27:39 PM PST

    •  Fundraising info on the two candidates here: (0+ / 0-)

      http://nhpr.org/...
      Also, a nifty map of the council district.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:29:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think New Hampshire and Massachusetts (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Jacob1145, MichaelNY

      Are the only two states with Executive Councils. Both are the consenting bodies for judicial appointments by the Governor, but I believe New Hampshire's is the more powerful one of the two.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:37:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The Democrat also got the support of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      some of the late councilman's family, as well as the Dem-leaning Concord Monitor: www.concordmonitor.com/home/10998378-95/editorial-in-district-1-race-cryans-is-best

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:28:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I started mapping an alternate NJ legislative map (0+ / 0-)

    earlier today.  I'm mapping a proposal of a major NJ tea party group that they offered as a fair map to the redistricting committee.  In southernmost Jersey, they did a crummy job.  the 3rd LD (Sweeney's district) takes up all of Salem and Cumberland County, which is perfectly logical in a non-gerrymandered map, but the 1st links Cape May county with the Atlantic City shore line and suburbs.  This wouldn't be a problem if Atlantic County wasn't like a fiefdom.  Giving away little towns like Longport, Weymouth, Somers Point, and Corbin City is ok, but this takes it a bit far.

    Also, the 2nd district appears to split a few precincts of Egg Harbor Township (a major town) from the rest.  Also, the 2nd district as they drew it is 13K underpopulated (ideal population is 219K) while LD-04 in Gloucester County is 13K overpopulated.  I can see why this was tossed and not taken seriously.  but nonetheless, I'll plow on this weekend since I have some down time.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 10:36:30 PM PST

    •  Aren't NJ maps required to keep towns whole? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      As I recall, New Jersey legislative maps can't split cities and townships unless they're larger than a whole legislative district (only Newark and Jersey City are large enough).

      •  Yeah, I think so (0+ / 0-)

        I'm not sure if they meant to have all of Egg Harbor in the 2nd or not since it has two precincts embedded near Atlantic City.  It's just a shoddy job overall.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 11:10:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Why are they even bothering (0+ / 0-)

      presenting this map to the committee if (in all likelihood) they won't be meeting again until 2021?

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:38:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They presented it in early 2011 (0+ / 0-)

        when the committee began working.  It's just now I remembered the map and decided to see how it would have voted and whether or not Dems would have lost the majority in 2011 or 2013 elections.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:43:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Starting Monday, I'll be posting less on DKE (17+ / 0-)

    Just letting y'all know. I'm going to be going on an LDS mission. However, as I have Aspergers and have trouble talking to random people (as missionaries do) I've been given the opportunity to do a service mission.

    Basically, in my specific "job", I'll be making sure there's no technical difficulties with church videos. Obviously I can't discuss it that much (as there are member-only videos), but it's mostly going to making sure the right name shows up at the right time on the screen.

    The thing is, because it's so close to where I live and a mission for people who can't serve a regular mission for one reason or another, it's part-time (32 hours a week), I get to live at home, and I'm trusted with disciplining myself, instead of being on the proselyting mission where you're forced to adhere to the full code of missionary conduct. Oh, and it'll be a six month mission instead of two years.

    So I'll be able to use the internet, and basically do as I like. That includes being able to post on DKE. The only change is that I''ll have a bit less free time, so if I post something fairly early on, I won't be able to respond to it for a while. Or I may forget altogether.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 11:38:57 PM PST

    •  Sweet, have an awesome time of it! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo, benamery21, MichaelNY

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 11:41:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for the heads-up (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, MichaelNY

      Sorry we may hear less from you.  Good luck in your endeavors.  Sorry to hear you won't be going on an international mission, many of the more liberal impulses I've seen in Mormon friends are rooted in that experience, but I'm happy you found a way to take part in this rite of passage.  I suspect, with the enthusiastic corroboration of most acquaintances, that I'm somewhere on the spectrum myself, but have avoided diagnosis.  

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:17:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good thing I'm already liberal then! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        benamery21, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

        It's funny, because while missions tend to breed some liberal impulses in most Mormons, their interpretation of the church's teachings breeds an overwhelmingly conservative outlook. However, my interpretation of the same teachings has not only not made me conservative, but has informed and enhanced my liberal nature.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:34:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  A lot of missions are intranational (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        benamery21, MichaelNY

        An uncle of mine went on his mission to Oregon (he's from CA), IIRC.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:45:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          this seems to have become even more common in recent decades, perhaps for family financial reasons, although it was always frankly hilarious to me that we had missionaries in Mesa, AZ.

          The liberalizing effect I was noting, strictly from an anecdotal viewpoint, seems less pronounced, and perhaps even reversed, in those who have served missions within the U.S.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:57:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There's missionaries in Salt Lake and Provo (4+ / 0-)

            Which is endlessly amusing even to we Mormons.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:23:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wow, even in Provo? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, gabjoh

              I know Salt Lake City has a sub-population of non-Mormon hipsters and west coast immigrants to convert, but Provo is the most religious city in the USA.

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:35:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Are they like the Lubavitchers (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, Gygaxian, Taget, gabjoh

              who do outreach to try to encourage greater observance among Jews? In other words, is their mission geared toward any jack Mormons and backsliders?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:57:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Mostly, yeah. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sacman701

                And to try and convince the few people who move to Provo SLC and aren't either already Mormon or openly anti-Mormon.

                There are also ward missionaries, who are almost exclusively Lubavitcher types, as well as being young men who are instructed to lend a hand with any physical labor (like someone moving in or out of a congregation).

                And besides the ward missionaries, there are home teachers who are neighbors, whose task are to visit backsliders (and already faithful types) once a month to make sure they're okay and to stop backsliding. I'm a home teacher for a couple of faithful families for the sole purpose to make sure they don't have any health or family problems.

                Basically, Mormon culture is very nosy.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:46:44 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  If they have health or family problems (0+ / 0-)

                  what kinds of things do you do to help?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 08:23:39 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  We just inform the correct authorities (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    If it's an emotional problem, then we try to talk it out with them (there's two home teachers for each family, usually an older gentleman with with a young guy like me, and an older woman with an younger woman for "visiting teaching"), but we're instructed to direct them to the appropriate mental help (as are bishops when a congregation member talks with them and has a mental issue).

                    Since we're usually neighbors with no real authority, they feel that they can discuss sensitive things with us more easily than with a bishop. If it's family problems, we try to provide comfort and ideas. We also provide food, help with physical labor, and basically anything a nice neighbor is supposed to provide.

                    With physical health problems, we try to make sure they're doing okay, but legally we can't do more (like pick up a prescription or whatever).

                    Or at least, we're supposed to be great neighbors. There's always rumors of home teachings abusing the trust of their assigned families, but I haven't heard anything too crazy.

                    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                    by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:32:54 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Have a rewarding experience! (0+ / 0-)

      I'm glad you'll still be able to post when you choose to. See you around!

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:33:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Good luck and keep in touch. (0+ / 0-)

      I do have to say if anything else the missionary stuff does sound fun.  Being sent to some place new or different and getting to interact with different people.

      You'll get to do something different but also sounds like something fun to do.  And hopefully it's work you can find meaning and purpose in.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:10:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SXSW (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, wwmiv, James L

    Just wanted to check, any DKE folk heading to Austin for SXSW? I'd love to meet up with anyone if you come on by.

    Side note, I just saw Shaq on 6th street.

    SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:06:07 AM PST

  •  I have started my bi-annual look at Senate races (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    General overview

    Alaska

    I will be adding other senate races and updating the individual races with polling data and other info.

  •  VA-DemChair, VA-Gov 2017 (0+ / 0-)

    In an article critical of him, Blue Virginia floated Dwight Jones, who is currently a candidate for Chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia, as a possible Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Virginia in 2017.

    Looks like the fix may be in only two months into McAuliffe's term in office (Virginia prohibits governors from being elected to consecutive terms).

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 05:24:56 AM PST

  •  IL Gov primary: Trib/WGN poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, James Allen

    Rauner 36
    Dillard  23
    Brady  18
    Rutherford  9

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:51:51 AM PST

  •  ME-Gov: Michaud up 45-32-18 (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.scribd.com/...

    LePage on 32, Cutler on 18. Democrats also lead on the generic ballot for state legislature elections, 40-33.

    However, this poll certainly has its oddities, with E/G/F/P favourability questions, and also, the following strange way of assessing support:

    Now, I'd like to rate how you feel toward some organizations and people, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.
    29% of respondents were also aged 65+.
  •  That New Walker Ad (5+ / 0-)

    I saw the new "Friends Of Scott Walker" ad against Mary Burke (the one with a red "LIE" superimposed next to a shot of Burke from her ad) for the first time last night on TV here in western Wisconsin.  I guess we Wisconsinites are about to find out what it was like to watch TV in Columbus, OH, during the 2012 presidential general election campaign.  We've got 8 more months of these kind of ads ahead of us?  Yeesh.

  •  OR-Sen: Monica Wehby and Jason Conger debated (4+ / 0-)

    at the annual Dorchester conference, basically about who more authentically hated Obamacare.

    In awesome news, a sawmill in Josephine County, Cave Junction to be exact, will reopen thanks to help from governor Kitzhaber and others who secured government funding of retooling. It had been the last sawmill in the county.

    In not so awesome news State Rep. Carol Tomei is retiring. She represented a safe district (HD-41 is around D+20) in Milwaukie and the Sellwood/Moreland area of Portland, so we don't need to worry about that, she was just a good liberal Democrat. She'll probably be replaced by one, too.

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 10:09:10 AM PST

  •  Gary Peters changing out campaign managers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, MetroGnome

    Bringing in Joe Donelley's campaign manager(Paul Trencher). While I'm never filled with confidence with this kind of shakeup, I feel pretty good about Trencher. I realize Donelley's win wasn't going to happen without Mourdock and his disgusting comments, but you need a campaign to set the stage and capitalize on that. So I'm hoping to see a stronger attack campaign. I really want a full D sweep here in MI, and Peters winning is step 1 to that, to say nothing of what it would mean to lose his seat. But running up the score would be great too.

    •  It's super early (15+ / 0-)

      Changing out managers this early usually just means there's a personality mismatch, or perhaps the current manager is a holdover from his House campaigns and doesn't have the national credibility, or even just doesn't want to do the 24/7 thing. The worrisome ones are the July-August changes.

      •  That's good to hear (0+ / 0-)

        Thanks for the reality check! I'm definitely good with having a more experienced campaign manager for statewide races here, and I figure if we got a what 6 point D win in Indiana we should be able to do something a lot better here in MI against a flawed tea flavored candidate.

        •  Land is tea-flavored? (0+ / 0-)

          She's flip-flop-flipped on Obamacare, right?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:45:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Basically (0+ / 0-)

            So far as I can see she's a pretty right wing person trying to play to the middle. I think she's on flip-flop-flip-flop on this already. I don't want to say "tea party candidate" but i think she's a bit closer to that than the moderate camp. Could be wrong

          •  She (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, sacman701

            I think just because of where she grew up, her instincts are probably firmly in the ideology that's in most of the tea party, which is just mostly a rebranding of old right-wing groups, anyway.

            That said, when she first ran for SoS and even for her re-elections, running in Michigan required here to mostly keep whatever cultural opinions she had to herself.  That's not to say she never had controversy, but the general impression of her in office was that she was moderate(ish).  She was not the first person you'd go to if you were looking for a conservative firebrand.

            Regardless of what she is, however, this is a different era in Republican politics than even just the previous decade.  She could not be trusted to be moderate, anymore.  Even a legitimate moderate can't be trusted to not fold under tea party pressure.  If elected, the tea party would almost certainly be successful in pulling her to her natural instincts.

            At the end of the day, it's probably be smar to call here a political operative with a conservative bent, but pragmatic enough to go wherever she needs to to win.  It's obvious her campaigning skills are really rusty.

    •  Paul Tencher* (4+ / 0-)

      I only know because I worked for him on Donnelly's campaign, :-).

      28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

      by IndyLiberal on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:27:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fun fact (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Julie Petrick, who is leaving, has been with Peters since his first congressional campaign.  Her husband, BJ Neidhardt, is Mark Schauer's campaign manager, working with Mark before he was elected to Congress.

      I do wonder what the real reason is behind the change - and I hope it has nothing to do with their marriage - but I believe Peters will be just fine.  I'd be more worried had this happen after the primary.

      •  Running a high profile Senate campaign (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        is just brutal. 24/7 and beyond, with max pressure coming from all sides. And it's also lose-lose. If your candidate wins it was all his brilliance, if he loses it's your fault. It's possible Peters is unhappy with her, but more likely she doesn't want any part of the headache and this might have been planned all along.

  •  Millennials and 2016 (11+ / 0-)

    So according to Nate Cohn on Twitter, Millennials are expected to go from 18% of the electorate in 2012 to 24% in 2016.

    In 2012 they went Dem 60-39. Meanwhile, old fogies went republican 56-44. If you take 6% of the electorate that's old fogies and replace it with 6% Millennials, then you expand the Dem margin by 1.92%.

    In other words, whereas Obama won by 3.86% in 2012, if he were running with 2016 age demographics he'd have won by 5.78%.

    How Republicans are not freaking out about this sort of thing, I simply cannot understand.

    •  But Hillary is so old and the GOP candidate (8+ / 0-)

      will be so much younger, so more millenials will vote GOP.

      I really think that is the logic among some Republicans.

      •  People like Rubio/Ryan appeal to us millennials (9+ / 0-)

        Yeah, they share very few of our views. But Rubio, Ryan, and Paul our parents' age rather than our grandparent's age, so that makes them young and hip!!!

        If Rubio takes a selfie on the campaign trail, I predict his share of the youth vote will rise to 120 percent.  

        Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:04:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I suppose late 70's/early 80's (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        is the cut off for Gen X'ers. Anyone born after that is a Millenials.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 12:08:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends who you ask. (0+ / 0-)

          Some say Gen X ends in 1980, some say 1982 or 83.  I'd go with the latter, as my friends that are 4-5 years older than I am (I was born in 85) are quite a bit more conservative than those my age and less tech savy.

        •  Yes, although (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen

          I would distinguish folks in first and second halves of the 1983-1996 birthyear range as having fairly different formative experiences.  Someone born in 1983 was 6 when the Berlin Wall fell (grew up without nuclear holocaust, and with the idea that 'capitalism won'), about 8 when we invaded Iraq the first time, probably got a part-time job at 14 or 16, 18 when 9/11 happened, and 20 when we invaded Iraq the 2nd time, but 24 when the recession started ('probably' kept a job).  Someone a few years younger graduated into the worst job market in the postwar era, after having grown up in one of the best, and is not unlikely to still be living at home.  Someone born in 1996 was 5 when 9/11 happened (has grown up largely without the expectation of civil liberties), 12 when the economic crisis struck (not being able to find a job is normal, and teenagers aren't expected to find work), went to broke public schools, college is impossible without massive debt.  

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:33:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Time frame (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          The frame I've seen most of all is 1964-81 for Gen X, 1982-2000 for Millennials.  1982 is probably marked as the earliest year for the Millennials generation cause the oldest Millenials would turn 18 at the turn of the millennium.  I don't know that 2000 is really the end of that generation - it might be a convenient marker, it might to mark the youngest people born at or pre-millennium.

      •  I suppose it doesn't occur to them (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, jj32, benamery21, MichaelNY

        that by the exact same logic, more old people will vote Dem.

        •  They've got that figured (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingTag

          they're planning on reminding everyone that she killed Vince Foster, didn't bake cookies--until she did, slept with Bill Clinton--and forgave* him, and also...

          Benghazi!

          *Not a GOP family value, forgiving Democrats

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:05:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  They are freaking out. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bjssp

      That's why they're making voting so hard. Why adjust your views to attract more voters when you can just eliminate the voters you don't like?

    •  The confusion has to do with Gen Y... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, KingTag

      ...why was an even stupid name than Gen X.  When they created the "millenials" the Gen Ys were mostly thrown in with the Gen X'ers but some with the Millenials.  Same with the "Me Generation" before the Gen X'ers.  They were more or less eradicated and split between the Boomers and the X'ers.

      Or in other words these labels are made more confusing by the fact that the demographers who make them always seem to change their minds.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:16:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-AD-36: Vulnerable Dem faces lawsuit (7+ / 0-)

    This is problematic:

    A former employee of Assemblyman Steve Fox alleges that the Democratic lawmaker forced employees in his taxpayer-funded state office to perform work at his private law practice.
    The lawsuit also claims the Palmdale legislator committed “serial violations of California wage and hour laws,” failed to pay his employees minimum wage, and required employees at his law firm to “perform between 15 and 25 hours per week of free labor on behalf of his campaigns.”
    Fox is the most vulnerable of the state assembly Democrats, winning by 165 votes in 2012. If the lawsuit gains traction, I can see Dems triage this race to shore up Sharon Quirk-Silva in AD-65 and try to flip Mike Morrell's AD-40 and/or Jeff Gorell's AD-44 instead.

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:29:50 PM PST

    •  Those are awful charges (7+ / 0-)

      I wouldn't be able to vote for someone who really did those thing.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 01:59:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope he can settle out of court (0+ / 0-)

      and prevent the heartburn this could give him.

      I expect Dems to pick up Gorrell's seat this year.  Dems are running the ex-Mayor, current Councilwoman of Thousand Oaks, the biggest city in the district (and a light red one at that) while losing at least one (but no more than two) incumbents, thus keeping a 2/3rds majority.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:20:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Basic issue: He paid her as an exempt employee, (4+ / 0-)

      she's claiming she's non-exempt.  In general someone making the level of money she's claiming should be non-exempt, but the law's not cut-and-dried, he is an attorney.

      Numerous issues:
      She claims to have made less than a full-time exempt employee would be required to make.  I suspect his position will be either that she was a 30-hr employee or that she received additional compensation (there is some interesting reading in the claim where she claims to have made less than her paystubs state, although this would still not qualify her as a full-time exempt employee).

      If he can show that she performed duties properly classified as white-collar exempt, and was paid accordingly, almost all of this goes out the window.  

      For instance, the stuff about performing 'unpaid campaign work' seems to suggest that it was basic clerical work occurring during her normal work day as an employee of Steve Fox, not as additional hours above and beyond that.

      The one exception, which would not go away, would be if she can show that she performed private law firm work as a state-paid employee during the last few months before she was terminated (wrongfully, or for cause, depending on your side of the case).  I think this is a weak contention, as the 'private work' seems to have consisted of things like taking incoming calls at his state office where folks calling, looking for him, may have been private clients, and rescheduling legislative duties around private appointments.

      Given the small amounts involved, I have to believe that this suit is motivated by something other than money.  I certainly don't see any money in it for the plaintiff's attorney.  The attorney involved is a former newspaper reporter and an ex-employee (video editor) of Fox (as in Fox News).

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:35:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, so maybe I should have actually read the (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        article before concluding anything about the gravity of the charges. My bad.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 08:26:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the explanation (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, benamery21, lordpet8, gabjoh

        Fox needs to nip this in the bud. His reelection campaign has no room for error.

        24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:21:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Could get ugly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kurykh

          and yes, that's not a district where he was near safe even without this.

          This was actually filed Feb 21st, but Fox basically said he hadn't seen it since he hadn't yet been served, and also, it's entirely meritless and he won't be settling (not the best news politically).  The one good thing is that district is not likely to be reflexively on the employee's side or to think the wage ridiculously low, but it certainly can't help him.

          I have to say, if she was really a paralegal and not really an admin with a fancy title, that IS an awfully low pay rate ($2K/mo) unless she was only supposed to be working part-time.  My sister was making more than that as a paralegal with a certificate 15 or so years ago as a teenager in AZ (she finished her certification and unpaid practicum at 17, but had to wait until 18 to take a paying job).  Also, when these disputes occur paralegals are often considered non-exempt by DOL so he's going to have to show that she exercised independent judgement, while simultaneously avoiding running afoul of legal practice rules.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:46:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  FL-13: GOP gaining in early vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bythesea

    but it might not be enough.

    117k votes cast so far, a 4500k advantage for GOP, double what it was last week.

    link.

    Smith compares this to 2012, when the GOP early vote advantage was 11k, then they outperfomed Dem by 9k on election day, only to have Romney lose the district narrowly to Obama.

    Same thing happened in 2010, when Sink narrowly won the district in the governor's race.

    What do we think of the most numbers from today?

    •  I think we'll find out come Tuesday (6+ / 0-)

      Consensus is she's supposed to win peel more GOP votes, than Jolly is going to peel Dem votes. As well as independents breaking heavily her way. I'm cautiously predicting she'll win, but I'm still nervous.

      The fact the nat'l GOP is trashing Jolly though says something, must means their internals have him losing.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 02:53:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The GOP mail-in surge subsided some today (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea, itskevin, James Allen

      and Dems gained net +150 in early voting: http://votepinellas.com/...

      Repubs went from a 4.1% edge to a 4.3% edge amongst mail-in ballots with an equal number of ballots mailed in today as the past 2 days.  Dems pulled up to a 45-39% early vote lead.  Overall GOP lead is 3.9X%, from 3.8% yesterday, which was a 0.35% increase from Thursday

      No mail on Sundays, which is also the last day of early voting.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:16:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah, overall numbers (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jj32, itskevin, James Allen

        went from 3.84% to 3.98% from yesterday to today, a slow-down from rest of the week, when Republicans went from 3.5X%-3.84% from Thursday to Friday, IIRC.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:38:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rand Paul wins CPAC straw poll, FWIW (5+ / 0-)

    which means little, of course.  If they were accurate, Mitt Romney would have won the 2008 Presidential nomination.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:43:28 PM PST

    •  He won a resounding 31% (7+ / 0-)

      Cruz got 11%.  Ben Carson (rolls eyes) gets 9%.

      The Carson hype is so hypocritical.  Republicans accuse Democrats of being bewitched by a charismatic African-American, but they do the exact same and then some.  EW Jackson and Allen West are prime examples of that.  The former was tiers below the other LG competition, but rushed to an upset victory after he made the convention-goers weak-kneed by his anti-Democratic rhetoric and saying: "I am NOT an African-American, I AM an American."

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:49:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, and Christie came in 4th with 8% (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacob1145, LordMike

        despite his showing up this year.  Scott Walker came in 5th with 7%, but was not present this year.  Santorum and Rubio came next with 6% each (Rubio came in 2nd last year).

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:52:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'm reminded of why I usually don't go out of DKE (9+ / 0-)

    I tried commenting on one of the Ukraine threads (in which the front-pagers have a low opinion of the new Ukrainian government). Bad idea. I think I'll stick to DKE.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 03:49:07 PM PST

  •  DKE Polling Outfit? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    At the risk of bringing up bad memories of Research 2k, it'd sure be nice if we had our own polling group that could do research on the races we want rather than waiting for PPP to finish doing the umpteenth Louisiana and NC poll. I'd like to see if Collins' lead has narrowed in Maine, and also a new poll of WV, but it doesn't look like we'll be getting one for a long one.

    My reasoning for Maine is that it'd sure be nice to make Collins sweat a little, even if she is safe. I don't like having a Republican blowout in a blue state.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 04:40:55 PM PST

  •  Lights off (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 05:20:57 PM PST

  •  Anyone will be living in DC next year (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    and has a spare couch?  :)

  •  At Ca Dem convention today (12+ / 0-)

    Had a great time, saw Nancy Pelosi and Eric Garcetti speak.

    Saw Wendy Greuel and Sandra Fluke too.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

    by Alibguy on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:10:25 PM PST

    •  Were (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Jacob1145

      you able to see some of the "ban fracking now" protestors who crashed Jerry Brown's speech?

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:27:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why, is Brown waffling on fracking? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        The issue isn't too big for me, but for some it is.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:29:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  More (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          like frustration that Jerry Brown won't outright ban fracking especially since bills to ban the practice were killed in the state legislature last year. Brown has tightened regulations on the practice, but just like Keystone XL climate activists won't be happy until fracking in California is dead and buried.

          Brown has said he will not outright ban fracking especially since California is sitting on 15.4 billion barrels of oil in the Monterrey shale formation. And surprise fracking is the best way to get to all that oil. Plus the Monterrey shale formation runs through the Central Valley which is still stuck in the recession.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:43:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Maybe if they covered (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            fracking fluid under the clean water act and other safeguards, it would be a great idea.  I guess they could pass those in CA no problem.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 07:48:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  What do you mean? (0+ / 0-)

              What would be a great idea?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 08:28:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Responsible fracking for oil extraction (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701

                The Central Valley used to be built on the back of oil wells.  My maternal grandmother went through grade school in Oildale, near Bakersfield (where she was born and raised), which was so named because it was owned by Standard Oil of California.  SO would fund the schools (called the"Standard School District") and basic public services to make living there incredibly cheap.  Her father (the ardent Democrat I sometimes talk about) was a welder in the tank field while her mother (a conservative, introverted Republican) carried out local deliveries of heating oil.  Later on, when the investment outstripped the profit, they capped more and more wells until finally they left Oildale behind for good.  The Central Valley has been reliant on agriculture ever since, but that's getting harder as climate patterns disfavor rain and the cities have huge water needs.

                “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 08:37:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Some CA Dem endorsement caucus results (6+ / 0-)

      I couldn't make it to convention this year, so I got this off Twitter.

      Cutoffs are 50% for incumbents and 60% for challengers and open races.

      Controller:
      John Perez 48%
      Betty Yee 45%
      No endorsement

      Secretary of State:
      Alex Padilla 59%
      Derek Cressman 11%
      Leland Yee 11%
      No endorsement

      CD-15 (East Bay)
      Eric Swalwell (i) 59%
      Ellen Corbett 38%
      Swalwell endorsed

      CD-31 (Inland Empire)
      Pete Aguilar 74%
      Eloise Gomez Reyes 16%
      Aguilar endorsed

      SD-06 (Sacramento)
      First percentage is with provisional vote, second one is without.
      Provisional vote went for Pan.
      Roger Dickinson 59.8% (60.3%)
      Richard Pan 32.7% (32.1%)
      Endorsement for Dickinson hinging on provisional vote

      SD-26 (West LA)
      Betsy Butler 56%
      Ben Allen 20%
      Sandra Fluke 4%
      No endorsement

      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 10:14:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was surprised to see so many elected officials (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Gygaxian

      at the College Young Dems meeting last night

      Congress: Ami Bera, Mike Honda, Eric Swalwell
      Assembly: Toni Atkins, Sharon Quirk-Silva, Steve Fox, Roger Dickinson
      Sec State candidate: Padilla

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

      by lordpet8 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 01:21:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What were they like? (0+ / 0-)

        Particularly those in tough districts like Bera, Quirk-Silva, and Fox?

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 01:25:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bera and Quirk-Silva were quite engaging (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades, ehstronghold

          They basically talked about the importance of running a good campaign.

          Bera cracked a joke about how Democrats should like Lungren for making Gay Davis look good (Davis won the '98 gov race by nearly 20 points)

          Fox started his speech about how his Republican opponent had measured drapes for his office, hired staff, and attended the training sessions only to be kicked out by late returns. Fox just highlighted his work on education. I think of the 3, he'll have the hardest time surviving reelection.

          "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

          by lordpet8 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 10:42:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  More CA Dem convention goodness (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, KingofSpades, kurykh, bythesea
    Scott Lay ‏@scottlay

    My little birdies tell me no #cadem14 endorsements in the statewides. Padilla almost got necessary 60% with 59%, and Perez-Yee were 48%-45%.

    https://twitter.com/...

    I'm quite surprised that not only was John Perez not able to clinch the party's endorsement for State Comptroller, but that Betty Yee was able to bring it as close as she did in the voting!

    Of course this probably means nothing since Perez has the bulk of the party establishment and unions behind him, but Yee should be commended for a better than expected showing at the convention.

    Personally I'm undecided in both races...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 09:41:37 PM PST

    •  It's hard to say the party establishment (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      is behind Perez if Yee is going toe-to-toe with him in terms of party support. I'm not sure how the votes broke down, but I suspect most NorCal delegates stood strongly behind Yee (who is from the Bay Area), and the CA Dems have always been dominated by Northern California.

      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Sat Mar 08, 2014 at 10:33:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Creepiest political party logo? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    I was looking up the slate of upcoming overseas elections and stumbled upon the Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle of Indonesia.  This party seems likely to win the April 9th elections as they're leading in all polls.  Their political party logo is a terrifying looking bull with red eyes and a red background.  

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

  •  CA AD-44: Another Republican entered (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike

    The filing deadline was Friday, so the field is set, and Republicans have three candidates in the open primary

    http://www.toacorn.com/...

    The establishment really does not want McCoy and another seemingly establishment candidate in the race only serves to help him get into the top two.

    Also, Jacqui Irwin received Julia Brownley's endorsement, as Brownley is now listed on the endorsement list on Irwin's website.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 09:55:55 AM PDT

  •  NH-Sen 2016: If Hassan doesn't run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    and Lynch decides he also doesn't want in, who runs for the Democrats?

    After Reps Kuster and Shea-Porter, I don't know who runs. A member of the executive council or a State Senator? Who would give us the best chance of defeating Ayotte?

    •  The current state AG might be a possibility too (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jorge Harris, MichaelNY, itskevin

      Joseph Foster, who served in the state house and senate then went into private practice before becoming AG last year. He has apparently been mentioned as a candidate for congress.

      I said before that I thought Hassan would be the best candidate. But if Lynch polls as well or better than Hassan, then it would be great to have him run and let Hassan run for re-election.

      •  It looks like Lynch has already decided (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        not to run. Hassan, although she polls well, may decide that she wants another term(s) as governor instead of having to run a hard race against an incumbent senator.

        I didn't realize that the AG was a former member of the state house and senate though. New Hampshire has them appointed by the governor, so its usually hard to know their campaigning abilities if they never held elective office. If Hassan also bows out, I think he may be good candidate to have run.

  •  So a clarification on my previous post (23+ / 0-)

    About posting less on DKE. Turns out I won't be posting at all, as I've been accepted to go on a full-time LDS mission at the Church and Family History Centers in downtown Salt Lake City. I'll be gone for two years (so I'll miss at least one election! Very sad), and I won't have access to the internet. Instead of doing technical stuff, I'll be helping genealogists obtain family records, acting as a tour guide at the Church History Museum, and other various things.

    It starts May 2nd, so I'll have a couple of months longer to hang out here, but starting then, it'll be goodbye to you all for two years.

    I wish you all well, and though I'll still be here for two months, I hope you all will keep up the good work of following elections.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:43:08 PM PDT

  •  FL-13: Early Voting closes on a positive note (10+ / 0-)

    Dems have a 46-38 edge in early voting: http://votepinellas.com/...

    Dems went from a 3.84% overall deficit on Friday to a 3.98% overall deficit on Saturday to a 3.78% deficit today.

    No mail today, so all AB ballots were hand-delivered and it remains at a 4.3% GOP edge.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 03:13:36 PM PDT

  •  Republicans at Dorchester conference endorsed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    the marriage equality initiative here in Oregon. The conference was founded by Bob Packwood decades ago to be a forum for Republicans, and this year suffered a split where separatists who were more culturally conservative had their own event in Clackamas. Dorchester is held on the coast.

    Anyway, they had a vote at Dorchester, among those who attended, and voted for the measure. There were still differing opinions, however:

    "I believe this is a wedge issue that forces young people into the Democratic Party's hands," said Jacob Vandever, a Republican legislative candidate from Corvallis who urged delegates to support the measure that could be on the November ballot.
    ...
    Dorchester, which was founded 50 years ago by former Sen. Bob Packwood, has often taken a more liberal tack on social issues.  It made headlines in its earlier year when it backed abortion rights and in 1992 when it opposed an anti-gay ballot measure on the Oregon ballot.

    There were a number of Republicans -- most of them older -- who spoke out against the measure.  One pastor read a Biblical injunction against homosexuality while former state Sen. Charles Starr of Hillsboro said society should not "shake your fist in the face of the living God."

    I found the last quote interesting because Starr's son is State Senator Bruce Starr of Hillsboro who represents a D+6 district that will likely vote for equality should the initiative get on the ballot. His father represented a more rural and Republican-leaning district to the south of Bruce's.

    Monica Wehby also won a straw poll at Dorchester but I was more alerted by this quote:

    Former Sen. Bob Packwood, who founded the conference 50 years ago, put the contest between the two in blunt terms as he noted that he often recruited candidates during his long political career.

    "I cannot pick a guaranteed winner," he said during the debate before the votes were cast. "But I can pick a guaranteed loser. Jason Conger is a guaranteed loser."

    Packwood later said that he thought Conger's opposition to abortion rights and gay marriage put him on the wrong side of the Oregon electorate. Conger disputed that analytsis, saying he thought Oregon voters are more concerned about economic issues.

    As for the separatist conference, it drew about 700 people on short notice, not bad, and I found these quotes quite interesting:
    There were a number of digs at Dorchester, which Rep. Jason Conger, R-Bend, who is running in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, wryly termed a "den of hedonism." The conference is known for its parties almost as much as its politics.

    "Now this is what I call a conservative conference," said one of the speakers, former GOP state Rep. Shawn Lindsay. "We're not navel-gazing at the beach, trying to figure out who we are. We know who we are."

    Lindsey talked about the importance of religion in democracy and capitalism, but said religious freedom is under attack. Among the cases he cited was the Gresham bakery that was penalized when owners refused to provide a cake for a same-sex wedding.

    Not surprising with ideas like that, that Lindsay lost a D+7 house district in 2012 in Bruce Starr's Hillsboro-based senate district.

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 03:50:07 PM PDT

  •  Hillary to be in Louisville in April (6+ / 0-)

    for the United Methodist Women's Assembly. Hillary is a lifelong Methodist, but it will be interesting to see if her trip includes a meeting, rally, or fundraising event with Alison Grimes (who is Catholic). The Grimes campaign has not yet commented on Hillary's trip, which is set for April 26, one week before the Kentucky Derby.

    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 04:04:06 PM PDT

  •  FL-Gov: Republicans downbeat about Scott (9+ / 0-)

    In case anyone hasn't seen, here's a brilliant article about the Republican sinking feeling about Scott.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    Some interesting points:

    34 percentage points — the margin Crist beats Scott by in Broward and Miami-Dade counties, according to one business interest’s statewide survey. This margin is 12 points greater than Democrat Alex Sink’s in the 2010 governor’s race. If she had earned Crist’s poll numbers in just these two counties, Sink would have won.
    10 percentage points — the margin Crist beats Scott by in another business interest’s statewide poll.
    1 percentage point — the margin Crist beats Scott by overall in that poll of Republican-controlled state Senate districts [...] [But] on a generic-ballot test, likely voters favored an unnamed Republican Senate candidate [in Republican -controlled Senate districts] by 8 percentage points.
  •  FL-Gov: Flordia GOP polling leaves them "queasy" (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    If they're so queasy, I guess it's because they're afraid that a Crist victory could have downballot effects (i.e. preventing Republicans from getting a veto-proof majority).

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 04:10:45 PM PDT

    •  Amazing to me that there isnt some (0+ / 0-)

      primary challenger for Scott.

      Yes, he has a lot of money, but that's about all he has. It seems like a lot of other Republicans(Bondi, Putman, for instance), could beat him in a primary, and then probably be favored in a general.

      I'm surprised Corbett, for that matter, hasnt gotten a primary challenger, although the bench might be a little bit weaker there for GOP vs. Florida.

      •  Probably be favored in the general (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        against Crist?????

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 05:58:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's the money and conservative politics (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Scott can outspend any potential primary challenger by a ridiculous margin.  Scott also has no legit threat from his right flank given how batshit crazy right-wing he is.  There's nothing really for a GOP challenger to go after him on other than electability.  And we should all know by now that the GOP primary voters don't give two shits about general election electability in choosing their nominees.

        As far as general elections go I'd disagree that someone like Bondi or Putnam are more electable.  Bondi is every bit as nutty, far-right as Scott is.  She's going to be in for a fight just to hold her AG position.  Putnam just seems to generic.  If it were either of them versus Charlie Crist I'd definitely move the race from Tilts D to Leans D.  It's solely Scott's money that will likely keep the Governor's race close.

        •  Disagree (0+ / 0-)

          Scott is vulnerable for two reasons: One, he's unpopular, and two, Crist is popular.

          Neither of the other Republicans are as well-known, and so, as batshit as they may be... most voters will be voting generic R. That isn't as much the case as name rec increases, and being governor tends to give you some high name rec values. If you're outed as batshit crazy like Scott has been, then that sticks with you.

          FL-Gov is lean-D at worst, and likely-D at best. I'd nudge those down a notch to tilt or lean-D if Scott were primaried.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:29:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Back from convention (6+ / 0-)

    Big endorsement news (or lack of it): The two contested primaries of SoS and Controller both ended up with neither candidate earning the 60% for endorsement.  Eric Swalwell did win the party endorsement for a return to Congress, which is big for him with low-info voters who might recognize Corbett's name more than Swalwell's.
    Finally, I heard  Martin O'Malley speak.  I thought he was fine and has potential but was nothing spectacular.  He's definitely testing themes for his presidential campaign.  A big one revolves around the use of the word "Believe" which is interesting as it was part of Romney's campaign slogan.

    Finally, I met John Hernandez, who appears to be: a) actually trying this year and b) running as a strong liberal in a swingy seat with huge downballot Democratic dropoff.  So, yeah, still not a fan.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 06:15:47 PM PDT

  •  Study on why Asian-Americans are Democrats (link) (10+ / 0-)

    Here it is:  http://cess.nyu.edu/...

    The abstract's summary of conclusions is a hilarious combo of diplomacy and nerd-speak.

    Shorter study conclusion:  Asian-Americans agree as a group that Republicans are a bunch of racists, and that other peoples of color are our brothers and sisters in politics.

    This is all pretty accurate and lines up exactly with pretty much what I've spouted here for years.  Always happy to see my thoughts validated!

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 07:19:49 PM PDT

  •  The Jewish vote in Canada - why so conservative? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    I was looking through the results for the last Canadian elections in 2011 the other day.  Nothing too surprising for the most part - Protestants overwhelmingly conservative, Catholics leaned NDP, Muslims heavily favored the NDP and Liberals, non religious favor the NDP.  

    The one that stuck out at me is Jewish voters went 52% for the Conservatives, with only 16% for NDP and 24% for the Liberals.  Does anyone know why Jews went so heavily for the Conservatives and if they always favor always favor Conservatives in Canadian elections?  It's like a polar opposite voting pattern of Jews in the U.S.

    http://www.punditsguide.ca/...

    •  Looking at Mount Royal riding might help (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, ehstronghold

      Mount Royal, located in Montreal, has a vibrant Jewish community and was known as the safest Liberal riding in all of Canada. In the 1970s, Real Caouette, leader of the then-existing Social Credit Party, said a mailbox (which are red in Canada) could win in that riding simply because it was red (the color of the Liberals). Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau won this riding with upwards to 91% of the vote against multiple opposition candidates.

      In 2009 and around 2011 election, the Conservatives essentially accused incumbent Irwin Cotler, who is Jewish, a staunch defender of Israel, and whose wife had worked for Likud members of the Israeli Knesset, of being weak on Israel and anti-Semitism. He barely held on 41.4-35.6 against a Lib-turned-Tory, with the NDP getting 17.9%.

      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:16:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Update on the Colombian general elections (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, askew

    The Senate results are looking pretty bad for the current President Santos, as well as for the left in Colombia.  Former President Uribe's successful comeback may well derail peace negotiations with FARC, as he's a staunch opponent of the peace talks.  Results for the Chamber of Representatives are still unknown at this point.

    http://hosted2.ap.org/...

    Former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is back in elected office — this time in the Senate.

    Uribe's party was the top vote-getter in the Senate in congressional elections Sunday in which President Juan Manuel Santos' governing coalition lost some ground.

    Uribe has been a vehement opponent of peace talks with leftist rebels that Santos initiated and hopes to soon conclude successfully.

    Uribe's new Centro Democratico party looks to have 20 of the Senate's 102 seats against at least 47 for Santos' weakened coalition. The coalition's fate will depend on the Conservatives, who are expected to win 17 seats. It is not yet clear if the Conservatives will stay with Santos or join Uribe.

    The left lost ground, meanwhile. It slid from eight Senate seats to five. The Green Alliance held at five seats.

    Lower house results are still being compiled.

  •  Im turning my lights off here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17

    Till future notice, I'll catch ya'll later. Peace.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 04:11:34 AM PDT

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