Alex Sink came up short in the special election for Congressional District 13 against Republican David Jolly. A great deal will be written about what happened. However, turnout (by party) data is not yet available, so some analysis will be held off until more data is available. One clear thing is this. Sink did well with absentee voters and Democrats managed to keep the turnout gap close in that regard. Heading into election day, the Republicans held a 4 to 5% advantage with absentee ballots returned. This was lower than the 6% they had in 2012. With independents making up over 20% of the absentee voters, and with said voters historically voting more Democratic, Sink was in a strong position heading into election day. Indeed, Sink won the absentee vote 48% to 46%; a margin of 2000. In addition, absentee voters made up 69% of the total votes cast in the election. Sink also won 58% of the early vote, but that only made up 3% of total ballots.
However, on election day ballots, Sink was crushed. Sink got 42% to Jolly's 54%, a margin of nearly 7,000 ballots. We are still awaiting the partisan turnout for election day ballots. However, it is likely that the Republicans had a substantial turnout margin Tuesday. In 2012, their margin was 7%, but that only yielded a narrow Romney win for the election day vote. The Republican advantage this time was likely higher, however, we will not know until the figures are released.
The map above shows the raw votes cast by precincts, with the spheres growing as the vote increased. The spheres are colorized based on how the precinct voted in 2012 and 2014. While Sink won a few precincts that Obama won, Jolly gained many Obama precincts in the midland area around Pinellas Park. In addition, Jolly got huge wins along the west coast of the district, a strong Republican area. While Sink gained over the President (who narrowly won the district) in select areas on the coast, she badly underperformed him inland. Turnout on election day seems to be a major factor; unless it was election day independents breaking for Jolly. We will not know until all the data is available.
A higher resolution image can be found here
http://mcimaps.com/...