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OK so it was a loss! Maybe a big loss or was it? My question is what can we learn and apply to other elections.

By all accounts Alex Sink should have won the election She was funded (every day I got an email from the DNC asking for money?
Let me ask a series of questions that need to be addressed:

1:  Was she the best candidate? A banker, someone who made (what was perceived to be)
     Anti Immigrant statements in the debate (insensitive at best) The GOP can say that and
      get away with it but; Latinos and/or Immigrants are a growing portion of the
       Demographic Base and did she give a portion of this district to "stay home"

2:  Was this really a "swing district" It is my understanding that GOP outnumbers
      Democrats in registration and, the GOP was carrying it for the last 12 years. That's
       not a swing district and a win of 1.8% is a squeaker not a victory

3:  My understanding is Democratic turnout was not great 39% as opposed to 50%
     GOP turnout and only a 1.5% win. There is something else going on

My take : We own the ACA and we cannot run away from it. As long as it remains unpopular, its an albatross over our heads and it will drag us down in districts like this

The GOP can put any false message they want, maybe total outright lies but if it strikes and emotional chord with the voters its over.
We need to find spokesman - with real stories about how their lives were made better by the ACA: people's whose stories are real and viable and, people relate to. Graphs, and charts and fancy analysis is great to MPH graduate work but it will not win elections

There is some good news : The elections was close real close! Support for the ACA and the President is inching up but passivity is not enough We need to be proactive.  People: WE OWN THE ACA WE CANNOT RUN AWAY FROM IT - Chris Hayes-

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kangaroo

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 06:51:20 AM PDT

  •  Lots of reasons (0+ / 0-)

    But the key is turnout. Why is the turnout so low? Sink didn't make this exciting or pressing. She is way too businesslike to get the young folks worried about the outcome. I never heard her talk to young women about potentially losing their right to birth control! Let's get real, folks.

    •  If it was turnout (0+ / 0-)

      why wasn't the margin of victory for Jolly so low (less than 2% in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats) I think its more complicated than that.

      a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

      by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 07:08:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Independent bleed off but (0+ / 0-)

        This was possible. You can't campaign as a DINO and get the young folks excited enough to show up.

      •  The margin was that low because, like VA... (0+ / 0-)

        ...there was a libertarian candidate siphoning votes from Jolly. Had that candidate not been in the race, it likely would have been a 4 point win.

        Adequate health care should be a LEGAL RIGHT in the U.S without begging or bankruptcy. Until it is, we should not dare call our society civilized.

        by Love Me Slender on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 09:06:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  EvenSo (0+ / 0-)

          I did some research and the GOP was winning by 12 points or better. Again, I am not going to downplay the situation we have problems- Big Problems
          But a gerrymandered GOP district with more GOP voters than Democrats; an Unpopular President, and unpopular ACA and this is the best you can do:under those circumstances, even a 4 point win indicates something is not quite right.

           The other side has problems too! We have short term problems and they have long term problems

          a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

          by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 09:11:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  It's an R+1 seat (0+ / 0-)

        Jolly won by 1% give or take.  

        So the district performed as it should have more or less.  

        That's not the problem.  If Dems can't win open R+1 seats then we can kiss away our chances of ever retaking the House again.  

        The fact that there was a Libertarian peeling off some votes from the GOP makes the Dems and Sink look that much worse.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 10:18:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thats said (0+ / 0-)

          The GOP has problems too. Ours are out in the open and we are there talking about them. Hopefully, solutions can be developed. The GOP is acting like "we won" we can win anytime anywhere!" I'm not sure that's true They should have carried that district by +5.They had all the advantages
          Gerrymandered district; unpopular president and unpopular ACA  I wouldn't be too thrilled if I were a Republican right now.
          Whats happens if Obama's approval improves (Bloomberg News is hinting at that- What happens if the public starts to like the ACA - Again their approval went up in one poll?
          One poll is an indicator of nothing. Public Polling Polling had Sink ahead by three. So much for that. But if a number of different indicators report of a positive change, we might be able to turn this around.

          a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

          by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 10:35:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The libertarian likely took some. This is by all (0+ / 0-)

        accounts a bluer district.  Every article I have read has described it as such.  One even called it one of the most blue in Florida.  I wouldn't consider it that but it's not a red district.  My parents live there.  

  •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

    Our corporate style Dems won't like it but you're dead on here.  Where are the Democratic Joe the Plumbers?  

    The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith

    by Kangaroo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 07:06:34 AM PDT

  •  The district has been represented by Republicans (0+ / 0-)

    https://groups.yahoo.com/...

    How is it a "Swing District"  If I were a Republican I wouldn't be too happy with this results either.  A - so called unpopular ACA, an unpopular president and you cant win by even 2% Margin of victory. Am I missing something?

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 07:16:20 AM PDT

    •  Because Obama carried it..TWICE... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bailey2001

      There is no sugar-coating this loss: It should have gone to e Democrat. Jolly was a weak, weak candidate (NOT the one R's wanted) and the money and support nationally were there.

      Sink was a weaker candidate and ran a terrible campaign. She walked the tightrope of centrism...and ultimately fell off.

      Adequate health care should be a LEGAL RIGHT in the U.S without begging or bankruptcy. Until it is, we should not dare call our society civilized.

      by Love Me Slender on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 09:07:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There are problems on both sides (0+ / 0-)

        We cannot run away from the ACA. We cannot stop being "D" Democrats in an effort to appeal to some mythical center We might gain a few votes but we alienate our own base.
         I would imagine in 2016  a Hillary Clinton sweeping these districts and carrying the congressional seats as well  In the meantime we  have to work to promote the ACA, get the problems out and find those folks that the act has made a difference in their lives and promote them. We need to GOTV efforts and make sure they show up. The GOP got their base out . They are good at that. You have to respect them for it.  We should only be as good.

        a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

        by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 09:30:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree we have to run with the ACA. We have no (0+ / 0-)

          choice. It's ours and we must run with it because if we run away from it, that will just make matters worse.  It is not going anywhere and it is our signature accomplishment and so we must run on supporting it and improving it.  

      •  I see two problems here (0+ / 0-)

        The first one is in, saying that the district should have voted D because it voted for Obama twice.  You can not conflate voting for Obama with supporting Democratic candidates in general.  The presidential elections bring out a lot more voters and people can become caught up in the cult of personality of the person rather than the party affiliation.

        The second problem, one not necessarily with your statement, but one that I am seeing in this discussion is the automatic assumption that voters registered a particular way will vote party.  Many people register with one of the parties because of the ability to vote in a primary rather than as a pledge of dedication.  The same problem applies here as it does with polls.  If it were sufficient to predict the outcome we wouldn't need elections.  We could simply count the number of registered voters.

        "It's not surveillance, it's data collection to keep you safe"

        by blackhand on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 12:01:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  One good thing could come of this (0+ / 0-)

    if Alex Sink would finally just go away.

    Why is turnout among Democratic voters so low in off year elections? Could it possibly have anything to do with the candidates they're offered? Just sayin'.

    •  I just read in the NY Times (0+ / 0-)

      Sink didn't move to the district until recently! Is the best we could do. Someone from the community could have done better. Hopefully, we will get some exit polls

      a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

      by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 11:49:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Can we stop calling this a "Swing district" (0+ / 0-)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    From 1983 to the present - over 20 years this district was represented by Republicans. Obama won in 2012 McCain won before that , Bush twice  How is this a swing district?
    It went for Obama once in 2012, all other times GOP.
    The late Bill  Young carried it by 12 points or more. Can we do some research before we start screaming!!

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Wed Mar 12, 2014 at 12:14:04 PM PDT

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