There seems to be a widespread acceptance of Russian annexation of Crimea as a fait accompli that isn't likely to be rolled back. The crucial question in this flashback to the cold war is will Putin stop there as he is now suggesting or will he move military forces into other parts of Ukraine. National security adviser Susan Rice is raising concerns about taking Putin's word for his good intentions.
Russia’s Shifting of Border Force Stirs U.S. Worry
The White House cast doubt Friday on the Kremlin’s claims that thousands of troops massing on the border of southeastern Ukraine are merely involved in training exercises, deepening fears that Russian aggression will not end in Crimea.
“It’s not clear what that signals,” the national security adviser, Susan E. Rice, said to reporters in a briefing at the White House. But she added, “Obviously given their past practice and the gap between what they have said and what they have done, we are watching it with skepticism.”
Pentagon officials do not believe that a new Russian move into Ukraine is imminent. But one of their big worries is that American and NATO officials would have virtually no time to react if it did happen. All told, officials said, there are more than 20,000 troops near the border.
Ms. Rice’s comments, which set the stage for Mr. Obama’s trip to Europe next week, suggested that the tensions between the United States and Russia were continuing to intensify. Asked if the Ukraine crisis was prompting a “fundamental reassessment” of America’s relationship with Russia, she answered in a single word: “Yes.”
It seems reasonable to view Rice and her statements as an authoritative source on the views of the Obama administration. There has been strong sentiment that a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russian forces was likely beyond the realm of possibility. So far Obama has confined his policy response to the crisis to diplomatic sanctions and has raised the possibility of stronger economic sanctions. The assumption that has been made is that he is not contemplating a military response.
However, the picture seems a bit more complicated than that. Vice President Biden has been sent to Poland to carry a message of reassurance.
Citing the need for friends to “stand with one another,” Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. reassured Poland and the Baltic states on Tuesday that the United States would protect them from any Russian aggression like the actions the Kremlin has taken in Crimea.
In the first of two days of hastily arranged meetings with the leaders of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, Mr. Biden mixed bracing words with promises of modest military aid to shore up the NATO alliance and build solidarity in the face of the deepening crisis over Ukraine.
One of the difficulties is sorting out reality from rhetoric is that the 20,000 troops that Russia has massed on the border with Ukraine are very real. The notion that they are only there for exercises rings rather hallow. It seems pretty clear that Ukrainian military forces are in poor shape to stand up to Russia in a head on confrontation. If that were to occur, there would be much pressure on NATO not to simply stand back and let it happen.
NATO action in practice means predominantly US military power. The US has been pushing the European members of NATO to increase their military capacity. So far the response has been tepid at best. Suddenly the picture of a postmodern Europe that no longer really needs to worry about such things has been called into question.