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U.S. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid (C) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (R) lead a rally to celebrate the start of the Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, October 1, 2013. The U.S. government be
Something for Democrats to run on
For the first time since ABC News and Washington Post started polling on public support for Obamacare, the law has more support than opposition. According to their newest survey, conducted nationally from March 26-30 among American adults with a margin of error of ±3.5 points, 49 percent of the country supports Obamacare and 48 percent opposes it.

The numbers aren't decisive, but they represent a major improvement since November, when problems with the HealthCare.gov website were severe. At that time, just 40 percent supported the law and 57 percent opposed it. Now that gap has shifted by a net margin of 19 points—in favor of the law. Democrats are particularly are  enthusiastic about the law, with 76 percent now supporting it.

This shift provides evidence for what we've been predicting now for months: That as the benefits of Obamacare become tangible, support for the law will grow.

It's worth noting that this poll had two glaring problems. One is that it didn't ask opponents of the law why they oppose it. As CNN's polling has repeatedly shown, many Obamacare opponents don't think it's progressive enough.

The poll also asked a nonsensical question about whether people supported "efforts by Republicans in Congress to replace the new health care law." A plurality, 49 percent, said no, compared with 47 percent who said yes, but given that there is not a Republican plan to replace Obamacare, it's an absurd question to ask. The only thing Republicans have ever voted to replace Obamacare with is nothing, which means the only sensible question to ask is about repeal, since that's the only thing Republicans have actually supported in any concrete form.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Covered by a classic New Yorker cartoon (8+ / 0-)

    Once the GOP repeals Obamacare, when do they plan to "replace" it?

    This question should be asked incessantly. And it should always call to mind the New Yorker cartoon, with that pissed-off executive with a phone in one hand and a Daytimer in the other, saying, "How about never? Is never a good time for you?"

  •  The trend is your friend... (10+ / 0-)

    The plus-minus on the ACA is going up before the election, the Republicans called it Obamacare as a sign of derision which will come to bite them in the ass, and one hopes the public remembers who tried to repeal it more than fifty times.

    •  I hope the public remembers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      who thought it was so life-and-death to prevent it from getting to implementation that they shut down the government and threatened default over it.

      Except, they won't.  Stupid public

    •  dems would be well served to remind people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SCFrog

      About those 50 votes to take their insurance away and how many million dollars were wasted by republicans just to make a political statement. Not to mention the billions lost in the govt shutdown. Every time the budget comes up, those actions should be thrown back in their face.

      They clutch their pearls and say we don't have money to pay people unemployment benefits, but they have no problem throwing away millions on these stupid repeal votes.

      Dems need to call them on it.

      Today's problems are yesterday's solutions. Don Beck

      by Sherri in TX on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 02:57:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  All-In for repeal and forget about it. (0+ / 0-)
  •  democrats will be running on it (8+ / 0-)

    not against it.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:12:16 PM PDT

  •  The GOP knew this would happen. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BarackStarObama, TofG, bythesea

    At least the savvy members of their party did. That's why they've gone all out to destroy the ACA. Once people get a benefit, it becomes nearly impossible to take it away.

    I don't like the private insurance model, but a lot of people now have health insurance where they didn't before. That's important, and the Republicans know those people are eventually going to be very grateful to the party that got them insurance.

     It'll be really interesting to see how the ACA is polling by the fall.

    "Ça c'est une chanson que j'aurais vraiment aimé ne pas avoir écrite." -- Barbara

    by FogCityJohn on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:12:25 PM PDT

  •  So, I was right. :-) nt (0+ / 0-)

    A true craftsman will meticulously construct the apparatus of his own demise.

    by onionjim on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:12:44 PM PDT

  •  The GOP plan is finally here! (8+ / 0-)
    •  Three holes and a big jaw clamping shut! Awesome (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zeta Retuculi

      approach to health care . . .

      Think about the baby Jesus. Up in that tower, letting His hair down so that the three wise men could climb up and spin the dreddle and see if there's six more weeks of winter. -- Will and Grace

      by Rikon Snow on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:28:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  um . . . if it's 49-48 with a 3.5 margin of error (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lgmcp, Buzzer, White Buffalo

    then there's no basis for either side claiming a majority.

    I understand the need to celebrate and cheer for our team, hip hip hooray--but did we all flunk math or something?

    If we are depending on this to sweep the 2016 elections (with our 33% approval rating in Congress), then reality is gonna smack us in the face. Hard.

    In the end, reality always wins.

    by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:15:38 PM PDT

    •  If you want to talk about margin for error: (7+ / 0-)
      At that time, just 40 percent supported the law and 57 percent opposed it. Now that gap has shifted by a net margin of 19 points—in favor of the law.
      That's what makes it so note worthy. The bounce back is well outside the margin of errors of the two polls.

      Besides, point estimates are useful tools in it of themselves.

    •  The trends are good, but... (0+ / 0-)

         ...as long as there are Democrats out there parroting Republican talking points about the law, the rate of increase of the law's public approval will remain glacial.

         We need leaders who actually believe in the party's core principles, and who are secure enough to tell the Village to buzz off. We don't have more than a handful of those.

         

      "Le ciel est bleu, l'enfer est rouge."

      by Buzzer on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:21:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The diarist seems to agree, (3+ / 0-)

      at least with the part about not claiming a majority, not celebrating or cheering, and not flunking math:

      The numbers aren't decisive, but they represent a major improvement since November

      This shirt is dry clean only. Which means... it's dirty. -- Mitch Hedberg

      by Greasy Grant on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:24:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  then perhaps the diarist will want to change his (0+ / 0-)

        headline . . . . . . .

        In the end, reality always wins.

        by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:39:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The headline is utterly spin-free: (4+ / 0-)
          Obamacare support edges opposition for first time in ABC-Washington Post poll
          In the poll, support had one more percentage point than opposition, which Jed referred to as an 'edging'.  I guess I'm just not seeing what you're seeing.

          This shirt is dry clean only. Which means... it's dirty. -- Mitch Hedberg

          by Greasy Grant on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:52:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  perhaps you should recall the Sink election . . . (0+ / 0-)

            in which many of us cheered because Team Blue was ahead in the polls---but lost anyway within the margin of error.

            Or perhaps you do not understand what "margin of error" means, and therefore do not understand that 49-48 with a 3.5% margin of error, does NOT mean "our side is ahead."

            Or does "math" not matter in the "reality-based community".

            (sigh)

            I swear, we are just as hyper-partisanly blinded as the Goppers are.

            In the end, reality always wins.

            by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:59:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  What exactly are you complaining about? (0+ / 0-)

              There is no spin in this anywhere...

              I love president Obama!!!

              by freakofsociety on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 07:12:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Where did Jed say "We Won!" (0+ / 0-)

              or "our side is ahead"?  There was a 1-point edge in one poll, and he reported on it.  You're seeing something that's not there.

              FWIW I have a bachelor's degree in statistics, and I know what a margin of error is and what is means.  Tony Randall said something better than I can: http://youtu.be/...

              This shirt is dry clean only. Which means... it's dirty. -- Mitch Hedberg

              by Greasy Grant on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 08:52:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  you're kidding, right . . . ? (0+ / 0-)
                Where did Jed say "We Won!" (0+ / 0-)
                or "our side is ahead"?
                What is the title of this diary . . . . . . . ?

                In the end, reality always wins.

                by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 08:56:52 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The headline referred merely to (0+ / 0-)

                  the edge in the most recent Washington Post poll; this is not the be-all and end-all of the Obamacare issue, and nobody said it was.

                  To those unfamiliar with the concept of 'margin if error', the closeness and small sample size means that if the entire U.S. population was polled, there is some possibility that opponents of Obamacare would have an edge.

                  And with that, I am done going in circles.  Good night & have a wonderful evening.

                  This shirt is dry clean only. Which means... it's dirty. -- Mitch Hedberg

                  by Greasy Grant on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 09:16:23 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  ps----- (0+ / 0-)
                FWIW I have a bachelor's degree in statistics, and I know what a margin of error is and what is means.
                You may want to explain it here, since most of us seem to have no idea.

                In the end, reality always wins.

                by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 08:57:46 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I flunked (0+ / 0-)

          Math pretty consistently as a youngster. But I know what BETTER looks like. I deal in statistical analysis now and the trend is excellent. I'd feel comfortable putting a safeguard at this level of support and letting it run!

          "Because we are all connected...."

          by Shawn87 on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 02:19:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  better is fine. trend is fine. but this is not a (0+ / 0-)

            majority. Period. It may be by November 2014. It may even be by next month. But it's not now.

            We lie to ourselves when we claim that it is.  It is not.

            Lying to ourselves is seldom a good thing.

            Speaking of "trends", though, the approval rating for Dems in Congress hasn't been above 40% since 2009, and is now around 33%. We do not win landslide elections when 2/3rds of voters don't like us. THAT is the "trend" we should be worrying about . . . . . .

            In the end, reality always wins.

            by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 02:34:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Keep spinning, Lenny (5+ / 0-)

      You hate the ACA, we know this by now.

      It was 40 percent, now 49.  And in America, 60-40 is a historical landslide.

      Come on, man.  We all know it's not perfect, far from it.  But it beats the hell out of the nothing that got passed in the previous 60 years of trying.

      •  spinning? (0+ / 0-)

        In the "reality-based world", "MATH" is "spinning"????????

        OK, then, carry on. Nothing to see. Landslide in 2014. Hooray for our 33% approval rating.

        (sigh)

        In the end, reality always wins.

        by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:34:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I have to agree with Lenny (0+ / 0-)

        If this were going more swimmingly I can't imagine any possibility whatsoever the country would turn control of the entire Congress back over to the crazies who drove the train completely off the tracks and almost destroyed the country only six years ago but Nate Silver certainly thinks it's a live possibility.

        There were several superior options to ACA, all thoroughly vented here. States will eventually step in on this, probably sooner than later. Maybe that was always the intention? One thing is beyond dispute. If Republicans get control of the Senate in 2014 and the entire government again in 2016 future prospects for ACA are pretty dim. This will be increasingly likely, albeit for the most illogical reasons, if healthcare costs which were already choking many households prior to ACA continue to increase overall. It's probably not fair but if average healthcare costs do not begin decreasing soon ACA could quickly begin losing any mojo this poll reflects.      

    •  When every poll that asked (0+ / 0-)

      if disapprovers hated the law from the right or wanted it more liberal, the combination of "approve" and "want more liberal" has, for some time now, been solidly above 50%.

      •  So we're depending on winning an election by (0+ / 0-)

        appealing to people who think our law sucks because we sold them out . . . ?

        Yeah, I bet that will work . . .

        (sigh)

        In the end, reality always wins.

        by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:37:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Do you honestly think what (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          freakofsociety

          you are doing in this thread is actually helpful? Perhaps you do, but if so consider that you may mistaken. This goes beyond wise advice to keep a level head.

        •  Oh Debbie Downer (0+ / 0-)

          You're changing the subject to stay determinedly negative.

          You're the one saying that those who want a more liberal version are so upset with what did get passed that they will hold their breath til they turn blue.

          That may be your position, but you cite no evidence allowing you to project that attitude onto the rest of the electorate.

          Plus, like I said above, you're changing the subject.  The fact remains, these polls are deceptively worded.  Half the country is not aligned with those on the right who decry the govt takeover of healthcare--which is how the right tries to spin it.  That was the point I was making, and it doesn't help the cause to change the subject when that important fact is pointed out.

          •  in case you haven't noticed . . . . . (0+ / 0-)

            Dems in Congress have a 33% approval rating.

            Let that sink in for a moment.

            Two-thirds of voters, don't like us.

            And I am a "Debbie Downer"?????????????????

            The Dem problem isn't with me. It's with two-thirds of the entire goddamn electorate. Especially when half of the electorate thinks our "bestest accomplishment ever", sucks.  And it doesn't matter WHY they think it sucks--all that matters is whether they'll VOTE again for the people who passed the law they think sucks--and encourage OTHERS to vote for them too. High turnout, we win. Low turnout, we lose. Will those who think the ACA sucks because the Dems sold us out, hold their nose and go vote for those Dems anyway? It remains to be seen. But it's certainly NOT a reason why they would rush out and enthusiastically do so, or convince others to. And that is no help to us.

            We will not win a landslide election when two out of every three voters thinks we suck. No matter how much you wave a blue pennant and cheer.

            Reality is gonna smack us hard.

            In the end, reality always wins.

            by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 03:20:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  There you go again (0+ / 0-)

              Half the electorate "thinks our best accomplishment sucks"?  That's your highly dressed up and completely unsupported version.  That's you projecting furiously.

              But this is a tired subject by now at dKos.

              •  read the damn diary . . . (0+ / 0-)
                According to their newest survey, conducted nationally from March 26-30 among American adults with a margin of error of ±3.5 points, 49 percent of the country supports Obamacare and 48 percent opposes it.
                Where I come from, "48 percent opposes it" means "half of them think it sucks". Or do you live in some bizzaro world where "48 percent opposes it" REALLY means "they'll do their best to convince others to SUPPORT it" . . . ?

                Whether they think it sucks because its socialismz, or they think it sucks because it was a sellout--they still think it sucks. And people are neither motivated to vote themselves, or to persuade others to vote for, something they think sucks. Especially when two-thirds of the voters don't even like the people who passed it to begin with.

                Geez. The ideological blindness here is rivaled only by that at Red State.

                In the end, reality always wins.

                by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 03:45:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  See the diarist's link (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      freakofsociety

      to the CNN link poll.

      "Not all of the opposition to the health care law comes from the right," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Thirty-nine percent say they oppose the law because it's too liberal, but 12% say they oppose it because it's not liberal enough."
      The math is looking good.
      •  so we'll win because many of the people (0+ / 0-)

        who don't like us, actually don't like us because we passed a crap bill . . . . . ?

        And that is GOOD for us . . . . . ?

        (sigh)

        I think election night 2014 is gonna be a big dose of reality for many of us. . . . .

        We have a fucking 33% approval rating.  We're not terribly well-loved, and people aren't breaking down the doors enthusiastically rushing for the chance to vote for us . . . . . in part precisely BECAUSE so many people think we did a shitty job with ACA.

        Our only saving grace, as always, is that the Goppers suck even more, and are even more hated than we are.

        Not exactly a smashing win for our side--even if we do win.

        In the end, reality always wins.

        by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 02:05:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Depressing, actually, that a law (5+ / 0-)

    ending preexisting condition exclusions and mandating 80% payout, has had to struggle to break even on the popularity front.  

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:19:44 PM PDT

    •  Especially given that... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rikon Snow, White Buffalo

          ...the Democrats were so unified and forceful in hammering home the message that this law was going to benefit so many Americans, doing all they humanly could to drown out the Republicans' lies on the ACA.

          /snark

      "Le ciel est bleu, l'enfer est rouge."

      by Buzzer on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:25:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I would wager that more than 200K sign up on (6+ / 0-)

    the federal website just today.

    And another 1+ million people will be in the queue by the end of today and get to complete their application by April 14.

  •  Wow (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, Sherri in TX

    Just imagine what these numbers would be if our elected Democrats would actually embrace the ACA and promote its benefits rather than start every sentence with "Well I voted for it, but. . . ."

    Strength and confidence whip weakness and insecurity every day of the week.

    They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time. -- Brian Fantana

    by IndyScott on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:25:51 PM PDT

  •  Oh noes! Socializm iz Advancing! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TurboDuck3000, Zeta Retuculi

    Doom!  Doom!  Woe!  Jesus is Crying!

    Think about the baby Jesus. Up in that tower, letting His hair down so that the three wise men could climb up and spin the dreddle and see if there's six more weeks of winter. -- Will and Grace

    by Rikon Snow on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:27:07 PM PDT

  •  What's that popping sound? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Shawn87

    Polls are already shifting ahead of the great news on ACA sign-up numbers (which will get far better as they are all reported thoroughly over the next month or two).

    Is that sound the anti-Obamacare bubble bursting?

    Or is it the collective heads of Republican pols exploding?

    "One of the more serious temptations which stifles boldness and zeal is a defeatism which turns us into querulous and disillusioned pessimists, sourpusses." ― Pope Francis

    by GoodGod on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:27:52 PM PDT

  •  Would be good to know if the shift is coming (0+ / 0-)

    from those who oppose Obamacare because it doesn't go far enough (e.g., single payer advocates who already lean left) or whether it includes a change among more conservative anti-goverment/small gov't leaning voters.  It's good news for the law and for Democrats either way, but if there is movement among self-described 'economic conservatives' (a modern oxymoron if there ever was one) then that would be a major blow to the GOP.

    Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

    by khyber900 on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 01:33:06 PM PDT

  •  Of course they like it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    freakofsociety

    What is not to like about giving people cheaper and better access to health care.  It make a big positive difference in their lives, no one will be unhappy with that.  The opponents of the ACA did a good job of scaring people, but it will come back to bite them in November.  How are they going to be able to convince the 10 to 15 million people benefiting from the ACA that is a bad thing, especially considering they have nothing to replace it with.

  •  Something fishy with RCP (0+ / 0-)

    They say it's 50-48 OPPOSED

    •  they understand what a "margin of error" means (0+ / 0-)

      Apparently, we do not.

      When the margin of error is 3.5%, there is no statistical difference between 49-48 for, and 50-48 opposed. They BOTH fall within the margin of error. They are BOTH equally valid numbers.

      Of course, when THEY claim a majority in this poll, they are just as ideologically blinded as we are when WE do.

      The poll gives no majority to either side. Period. That is basic math. We ignore basic math at our peril.

      In the end, reality always wins.

      by Lenny Flank on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 02:23:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Had to share this.. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cardinal Fang, bythesea, IM

    Brainwrap just burned some Republican asshole on twitter who was questioning his numbers.

  •  This is what republicans feared (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    and they've done everything they can to waste time trying to repeatedly repeal it.

  •  And Tweety declared moments ago.. (0+ / 0-)

    The healthcare law is still unpopular.

  •  This poll had two glaring problems: it didn't ask (0+ / 0-)

    1. How many actually signed up vs what govt planned
    2. How many actually paid

  •  Obama care (0+ / 0-)

    The GOP haters cringe when they here the word "OBAMA anything" so why are we calling the ACA Obamacare? It is stupid to inflame those people that are inflammable. It is stupid and self defeating. Lets call it what it is ACA.

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