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Israel has threatened to reoccupy Gaza again. A few hours ago, they launched air, missile, and artillery strikes in retaliation for three rockets fired at the town of Sderot. Dr. Adnan Abu Amer writes about the possible scenarios involved.

This round, like its precedents, was supposed to end with mutual statements between Gaza and Tel Aviv, but the latter escalated its statements this time with unprecedented threats regarding the possibility of reoccupying the Gaza Strip in order to cleanse it of the military arsenal and missile powers it has, as was stated by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

But fears in Gaza were heightened after the pace of these threats was picked up and they were made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Moshe Ya'alon and the Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defence Forces Benny Gantz.

This has touched off a new round of threats made by both parties. Warfare has become even more high-tech; for instance, Hamas sent thousands of texts to Israeli mobile phone customers and made threats against them. And the Al-Qassam Brigades released a video making threats against Israel's defense minister Moshe Ya'alon.

Gaza reacted to the threats of reoccupation quickly; the Hamas government's Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh threatened, in front of hundreds of thousands of the movement's supporters in Hamas' festival in the middle of Gaza on March 23 on the commemoration of the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yasin, founder of the movement, that "any new attack against the Strip will cost Israel a high price, because the abilities hidden by the resistance are much more than Israel's estimation."
This could all well be a tactic used by Israel to intimidate Hamas, according to the speculation being reported in the article. But if Israel does choose to occupy Hamas, it will be because of tacit support given by the Arab countries, who might see it as a means of getting Israel and the PA back to the table by getting Hamas out of the way, so the speculation goes. But the problem with that is that this will bring Israel right back to square one, with a constant threat of terrorist attacks against its troops. It would seriously escalate the conflict due to the rise of guerrilla tactics similar to Iraq. And there would be no guarantees that Hamas would be wiped out. And the PA would have a hard time coming back to the table when Israel has not met its numerous demands as a precondition for restarting the talks.

And a reoccupation would boomerang in other areas. It would accelerate the BDS movement even more even if Israel were to succeed in wiping out Hamas because their fortunes are not tied to that of Hamas. Other groups would form to fill the power vacuum left behind, and there would be no institutions worth speaking of that Gazans could turn to. It would create a state of total anarchy and chaos similar to Somalia.

It would be a state similar to Iraq. Even if Israel were to overrun Gaza easily, the hard part will just have begun. There would be explosives, IED's, suicide bombings, and there would still be rockets fired into Israel. If Israel is serious about its threat to reoccupy Gaza, it will show that it will not have learned anything from the quagmires of Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Link or quote of relevant statements (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wader, mookins

    The linked article doesn't actually quote any Israeli officials.

    What exactly have they been saying?  Do you have a link to it?

    Quote of the week: "They call themselves bipartisan because they're able to buy members of both parties," (R. Eskow, Campaign for America's Future.)

    by mbayrob on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 08:29:02 PM PDT

    •  Sure. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AoT

      At least two government ministers have called for it.

      In the wake of the latest round of rocket attacks from Gaza, at least two top government ministers – Intelligence and Strategy Minister Yuval Steinitz and Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman – are calling on Israel to retake Gaza. In a stinging recrimination to former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan, which included the forced expulsion of some 10,000 Israelis when their homes were demolished and the land they were build on handed over to the Palestinian Authority, Steinitz said in an interview with Channel 10 that Israeli control was the only way to restore peace and quiet in southern Israel.

      “Sooner or later we will have to take control of Gaza, in order to get rid of the Hamas regime,” Steinitz said. “We do not need to reoccupy it permanently, but we do need to remove from Gaza the option of firing rockets on us. If and when the moment comes when we must retake Gaza – and that moment is coming soon – the operation will have to be a very quick one,” said Steinitz.

      An operation like this is likely to be distasteful to Israelis, but there really is no choice, said Steinitz. “This really should have been done in 2012, in Operation Pillar of Defense, when they fired rockets at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The IDF entered Gaza and managed to halt the firing of rockets for a time, but I was of the opinion that we should have continued.”

      "The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression." - W.E.B. Du Bois Be informed. Fight the Police State.

      by Eternal Hope on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 05:43:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  An excellent post and excellent and well written (4+ / 0-)

    points Eternal Hope.

    As an humorous aside, Pennsylvania show up in you tags, and it did not seem to be referenced in your post on the first read, so I went back to check.  

    I suspect somehow, and automatic function has picked up "PA," for Palestinian Authority."  Now I'm wondering why the Christiegate posts have not picked this up when we abbreviate the Port Authority.

    I can just imagine the NSA content analysis counters sending out terrorist alerts as they cross reference mentions of "Hamas, the words, you mention in your Israel quotes, that I do not want in my count which is already too high just from the combination of visiting your post after writing the Ebola update, and now referencing this PA tag.

    Sheesh, next time I go to the airport I'm going to have to leave an extra hour because I will be "selected for extra attention!" Isn't funny how they say that as if you just won a prize.  And, then you stand there as every piece of lint in our pockets and the bottom of one's briefcase is put through the analyzer.

    Oh well, I'm sorry. I'll try not to visit you posts anymore tonight, if you promise not to visit mine? Maybe our
    "watch list" mojo will wear off enough that my next trip will not take twice as long.

    Cheers.

    "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

    by HoundDog on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 08:34:27 PM PDT

  •  Terrorists firing rockets into civilian areas (8+ / 0-)

    with the intent to kill civilians are committing war crimes.

    Israel has a right to defend its citizens from being attacked.

    This is not a new development but one that has been repeated ad nauseam.

    "Stay close to the candles....the staircase can be treacherous" (-8.38,-8.51)

    by JNEREBEL on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:11:11 PM PDT

    •  Unless There Are No Civilians (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Greenfinches, high5

      Of course, one could also make the claim that since every adult male Israeli serves in the IDF any weapon targeted toward any such person would be attacking an enemy military target.  It wouldn't differ so much from Israeli claims that they're targeting Palestinian military targets without a scintilla of concern for civilian casualties.  The savagery being shown by both sides in this conflict has reached nauseating proportions, along with the willful acceptance by some people of the use of excessive force in the pursuit of political aims.  I'm not arguing that what the Palestinian militants are doing is right, only that it takes only very little spin to make it so.  They just haven't learned how to do it yet.

      "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

      by PrahaPartizan on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 10:14:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So Israel is committing war crimes? (0+ / 0-)

      They regularly fire rockets into civilian areas.

      If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

      by AoT on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 11:23:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You know good and well there is a difference (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JayinPortland, livosh1

        between terrorists that fire rockets from civilian areas into civilian areas with the intent to kill civilians and rockets fired at terrorists hiding in civilian areas.

        "Stay close to the candles....the staircase can be treacherous" (-8.38,-8.51)

        by JNEREBEL on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 12:38:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So the intent is more important than the actual (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          callmecassandra

          killing of civilians. Israel is just like "oops! We totally didn't mean to kill civilians!" and no problem. But when some unknown person fires a rocket into Israel and doesn't kill anyone it's a war crime. Legit.

          If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

          by AoT on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 01:20:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And Palestine is not committing war crimes (0+ / 0-)

          and cannot do so because Israel and the US refuse to allow Palestine to sign the treaties that would bring Palestine under the international regime of war crimes.

          You might be able to argue that some faction or another in Palestine is committing crimes against humanity, but as a non-state they cannot wage war and thus cannot commit war crimes.

          Just like Israel has never violated the Non-proliferation treaty because it is not a signatory.

          If knowledge is power and power corrupts, does that mean that knowledge corrupts?

          by AoT on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 01:27:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  You correct. Not a new development. (0+ / 0-)

      Also not a new development: that there are plenty of apologists for this conduct.

  •  It appears it is more for the Palestinian move (7+ / 0-)

    to join U.N. agencies.  

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/...

    "Fragmented and confused, we have no plan to combat any of this, but are looking to be saved by the very architects of our ruination."

    by BigAlinWashSt on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:23:48 PM PDT

  •  Why Bother? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mookins

    What would persuade the Israelis to re-invade Gaza?  Right now, they have the best of all possible worlds.  Gaza is an open air prison under the control of totally separate agency who also must pay for its upkeep.  If Israel reoccupies Gaza, they need to maintain it and pay for it.  Where's the advantage in doing that?  Worse, it places Israeli soldiers at risk daily to actually maintain some semblance of peace and security.  That's a task which Hamas is expected to accomplish now - on Hamas' nickel.  If I were Hamas, I'd just tell the Israelis to "bring it."  It would totally destabilize the region, cost the Israelis a pant load, threaten the upcoming Egyptian elections in a bad way and virtually inter any continuing talks on pursuing the vaunted "two state" solution.  I can't believe the Israeli government made this threat.

    "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

    by PrahaPartizan on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 10:20:47 PM PDT

  •  Could you possibly include a link? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JayinPortland, JNEREBEL

    Reoccupation of Gaza seems very unlikely.

    However, it's probably likely that Israel will take military action if the rockets continue.

     

  •  "accelerate the BDS movement"??? OMG... (0+ / 0-)

    ...will there be enough toilet paper on hand for this?

    IMOP. Also LOL & BBF

  •  Israeli government is at least as smart as (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AoT, Eternal Hope

    your local bank.

    The last think Israel wants to do is have what we now call Gaza in the same legal jurisdiction as itself or to be responsible for its upkeep under. . .  military whatzitism. Like the banks who have defaulted borrowers but do not want to complete foreclosures because completing the foreclosure means the bank and not the borrower becomes responsible for taxes and maintenance of the premises.  

    Israel, or ore accurately its right wing government,  would then be responsible for making sure water was clean and the pollution of the shared  coastal water table from Israel  more nearly literally than usual, no longer affects the potability of Gaza water. And it could not unilaterally cut off electricity when it feels like it.  Or maintain the difference in essential quality between cinnamon and cumin, one illegal to import and one not.

    There have been posters here who suggest that what would happen if Israel took Gaza again would be that it would evict the Palestinians to Egypt, and go back to the old days with the Israelis who were evicted by Ariel Sharon and never gave up their claims either.

    And such a move would invigorate BDS because the eviction or the abuse would be more visible than the events of '48 and '67, which happened before the birth of a lot of current activists, or the Bedouin abuses now under way which are flat out not covered well outside Israel or inside either.  

    •  Ah... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mets102

      Israelis = bankers.  Cute.

      "what we now call Gaza."

      What else would, or should, we call it?

      I'm having trouble understanding what your point about water is.  Or are you admitting that the potability of Gaza's drinking water, and its treatment (or lack thereof) of its wastewater, is none of your concern under Hamas, but would be under Israel in the alleged situation the diarist posits, which even you seem to admit will never actually happen in reality?

      Why even mention it in that case, since one would think that one who is actually concerned about Gaza and its people would be concerned about its water quality no matter who is in control of the area?

      I can't recall the last time I saw a diary here taking Hamas to task on its failure there, though.  Perhaps you can enlighten me with a link to one?

      History shows that those who actually pay for products and services, like energy, provided to it by others, don't generally find same 'cut off.'

      I'm pretty sure that if I stopped paying my electric bill, and used my North Philadelphia rowhouse as a base to shoot rockets at PECO's headquarters in Center City, I'd probably find my light switches out of service sooner or later.

      (But I see Egypt gets a pass on that, too, amongst other things.)

      It's also probably not advisable to publicly fantasize about causing pain to others in order to 'invigorate' a 'movement' you cheer on from afar.

      Israel's plans for the Bedouin are to resettle as many as possible in modern neighborhoods with utility hook-ups (I believe you've already mentioned right here in this comment that you're very concerned about things like water, right?  Isn't this a good thing, then?), in order to reduce the environmental impacts on sensitive lands in the Negev.  Those affected will also be compensated for their trouble, in addition, although there is no requirement for this.

      I know it may be hard for those who view Israelis as constantly mustache-twirling, comic book villains always plotting their next evil caper to believe such things, but the truth isn't a subjective matter.

  •  Hard to take your source seriously when (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JayinPortland, livosh1, Radiowalla

    the first sentence is:

    "Palestinian resistance forces and the Israeli occupation army had a fresh confrontation in mid-March as part of the ongoing unrest."

    Not exactly the kind of language a reputable news organization uses.

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